NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 4th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2018-02-05 03:36:36

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics – 12:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		202.5					Vegas Total		202.5
			Vegas Spread		1.5					Vegas Spread		-1.5
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		102.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.3					Pace Projection +/-		-0.7
Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Evan Turner	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic		Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	1	2	8	5	11		DvP	2	16	18	11	2
DRPM Rat.	2	1	2	3	1		DRPM Rat.	18	23	16	10	5

Portland Trail Blazers

Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have a surprisingly healthy six NBA games today, and they all come with early starts so as to not conflict with the “Big Game” tonight. Things get kick started with four games at noon, and this is a fun one between the Blazers and Celtics. We have a one point spread in this game with both teams pegged at around 100 points, so there is some fantasy appeal here. Boston is generally a strong defensive squad, but they are missing a few key pieces due to injury, and I don’t mind targeting the Portland guards here. Damian Lillard always brings a lot of upside to the table, and C.J. McCollum is strangely affordable on every site. Despite having a solid week including a massive game against the Bulls, McCollum comes at a bargain everywhere, and he is one of my favorite plays of the day.

Portland’s last two games have been decided by 16 and 25 points, so don’t get carried away when looking at recent minutes. The starters haven’t had to play as much in recent games. I’m less excited about the frontcourt in a matchup against Boston, though. Evan Turner disappears far too often, and Al-Farouq Aminu is never a must. The highest upside in this unit belongs to Jusuf Nurkic, who carries a low floor and a high ceiling. Again, the matchup isn’t great against a Boston squad that is a strong defensive team, but the GPP upside is there. Most of my exposure will come via the guards here.

Notable Injuries

Evan Turner (Probable)
Shabazz Napier (Questionable)

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 104.6 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.1 (12 of 12)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays – - Jusuf Nurkic (GPP), Al-Farouq Aminu (Cash)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have been hampered by injuries, and that will make them a very attractive team to target today. Irving, Morris, and Smart are all listed as OUT on the injury report, so we can proceed as we did the other night, when the team basically used an eight man rotation and still put up 119 points on the Hawks. Let’s start with the backcourt, where Terry Rozier has been absolutely fantastic in two starts in place of Irving. With both Irving and Smart sidelined, Rozier should continue to absorb a ton of minutes. In his two starts, he has one triple-double and one 31 point game. That’s not too shabby. However, his price has started to come up across the industry. I’ll obviously list him as an elite play here, but there is some potential merit to fading him in tournaments at elevated ownership.

If you choose to fade Rozier, make sure you get leverage on that by playing some other Boston pieces. I really like Abdel Nader as a potential value play. He is being used as the sixth man now, and he has played 28 and 27 minutes in the last two games. Nader isn’t a high usage guy, but he’s very cheap. I’ll gladly throw him on some rosters this afternoon. The other starters are very solid plays, as well. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford should all be looking at 30+ minutes, and CourtIQ tells us that both Tatum and Horford see massive bumps in usage with the three injured players off the floor. Tatum gets a 10% bump, while Horford sees a 12% boost.

Lastly, you could potentially get some value in the middle with Aron Baynes. He likely won’t play much more than 24 minutes, though, and Portland is generally strong against centers. Baynes is coming off an 11/8/5 performance against the Hawks, and he remains very cheap, so he can’t be ignored despite the difficult matchup.

Notable Injuries

Kyrie Irving (Out)
Marcus Morris (Out)
Marcus Smart (Out)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (7 of 12)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Aron Baynes, Abdel Nader

Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets – 12:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		208.5					Vegas Total		208.5
			Vegas Spread		-4.5					Vegas Spread		4.5
			Implied Team Total		106.5					Implied Team Total		102.0
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		-1.7
Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson		Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Quincy Acy	Jarrett Allen
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	17	13	25	30		DvP	11	5	4	7	26
DRPM Rat.	6	15	2	14	25		DRPM Rat.	8	27	26	8	2

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks draw a favorable pace-up matchup against the Nets on Sunday, and they are only four point favorites against an improving Nets squad. I wouldn’t worry too much about the blowout risk here, and the Bucks have a healthy team total of 106 points. That makes them one of the more attractive teams to target today. Obviously, it all starts with Giannis Antetkounmpo. He is healthy again, and he dropped a 41/13/7 line against this same team just a couple weeks ago. Fire him up as one of the top plays on the slate.

Outside of Giannis, both Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton line up as strong plays on this Sunday slate. Bledsoe should benefit from the absence of Malcolm Brogdon, and I wouldn’t worry about his low minutes in the last game, as that was a direct result of foul trouble. He should be much better today. Middleton, as always, is a safe play that will see a healthy chunk of minutes. Both players can be used with absolute confidence.

Jabari Parker has returned for the Bucks, but he played just 15 minutes in his debut on Friday. Keep an eye on him, but the minutes are going to be low for a while. John Henson should continue to have a 30 minute role for now, and that’s enough to make him a viable play against the Nets. Brooklyn ranks dead last in the league in DvP against the center position.

In short – make sure you get some exposure to the Bucks today. Guys like Tony Snell and Matthew Dellavedova might even be viable punts on this slate.

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Brogdon (Out)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (6 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (5 of 12)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokoumpo, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, John Henson

Secondary Plays – Tony Snell, Matthew Dellavedova

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets aren’t the NBA pushover that they used to be, but they are still a below average squad. They also are frustrating to target in DFS, because we never know how minutes will get allocated. The good news is that they do carry some fantasy appeal because they play at such a fast pace. The primary appeal comes in GPP formats, as a lot of players have low floors and solid ceilings. Let’s start with Jarrett Allen. He has taken over the starting center spot and has been playing very well. Assuming the coaching staff is logical, he should trend toward a 30 minute role on the regular basis. With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson sidelined, the path is clearly there. Allen is coming off a 20 point, five rebound game in just 24 minutes the other night, and he is a great value again today. DeMarre Carroll should also see a few more minutes with RHJ out, but he has a relatively low ceiling. He’s probably one of the only players on this team that is better served in cash games.

The rest of the situations here are a bit more hairy. D’Angelo Russell is back and is pushing for some of the minutes of Spencer Dinwiddie. Allen Crabbe and Caris LeVert split time on the wings. I could potentially make a case for any of these players in GPPs, but they are hard to trust in cash games. Brooklyn has committed to giving Dinwiddie minutes despite Russell’s return, and Dinwiddie is coming off a 23/7/9 game in 32 minutes the other night. He’s a strong tournament option that will get overlooked today.

Notable Injuries

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (11 of 12)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jarrett Allen, Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (Cash), D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll (Cash)

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks – 12:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		103.0					Implied Team Total		108.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		0.3
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Miles Plumlee		Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	13	15	10	6		DvP	21	18	30	21	29
DRPM Rat.	19	20	19	5	28		DRPM Rat.	30	2	15	23	9

Atlanta Hawks

This is the only game on the Sunday slate that doesn’t feature any injury concerns on either side, so we can decide plays solely based on merit. The problem is figuring out where that merit lies with the Hawks. All 13 active players saw some court time against the Celtics on Friday. After getting benched in the fourth quarter in the previous game, Taurean Prince went nuts with a 31/8/2 line in that game. That’s a great microcosm of how things go with this team. If you trust the minutes to be there, Prince is still very cheap. I can certainly see him as a value piece today. He is the only frontcourt player I will target here, as the minutes are spread between Ilyasova, Plumlee, Dedmon, Collins, and Muscala at the other two spots. None of them played more than 25 minutes on Friday, and that is a common occurrence. I’ll pass.

10:30 AM UPDATE – Ilyasova is out today with an illness, and Dedmon will start in his place. With one less body in the mix, Dedmon and Collins become a little interesting as secondary options.

The guard spots are a little more palatable. Dennis Schroder had a woeful January from the field, shooting just 40.2% for the month, but he started February with a 25 point performance on 10-for-20 shooting against the Celtics. He’s a strong mid-range option against a Knicks team that struggles to defend the point guard position. I’m not as big of a fan of Kent Bazemore as some others, but I can see him as a decent value in cash games if you need it.

Notable Injuries

None

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (6 of 12)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Taurean Prince

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmon, John Collins (GPP)

New York Knicks

New York draws a favorable matchup today against a Hawks squad that ranks inside the bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency and inside the bottom ten in DvP against every single position. All five Knicks starters played more than 30 minutes in the last game, too, which is a positive sign. They don’t have a back to back set for another week, so we should be able to bank on regular minutes for them today. The offense should continue to be led by Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis. Hardaway has been very frustrating because of his surprise scratches last month, but the potential is there. He put up a mid-20’s fantasy total in the last game despite shooting just 1-for-14 from the floor. That should improve today against a bad defensive squad. I also expect a big game from Porzingis against a team that has nobody even close to capable of matching up with him.

Jarrett Jack and Courtney Lee certainly don’t classify as superstars, but they will carry stable minutes and have a solid floor today. I like them both as values in cash games, though I will look elsewhere for more upside in GPPs. If you want GPP upside, Enes Kanter certainly brings that to the table. He’s a likely fade for me at his now elevated price point, but his last three games have gone for the following lines:

1/30 vs. BKN – 20 points, 20 rebounds
1/31 vs. BOS – 17 points, 17 rebounds
2/2 vs. MIL – 17 points, 18 rebounds

It’s hard to argue against that, especially given today’s matchup. You will want some Knicks exposure today.

Notable Injuries

None

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 105.1 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (3 of 12)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter (Cash), Jarrett Jack (Cash), Courtney Lee (Cash)

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors – 12:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		208.0					Vegas Total		208.0
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		98.5					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.2					Pace Projection +/-		-3.3
Projected Starters	Andrew Harrison	Wayne Selden	Dillon Brooks	Jarell Martin	Marc Gasol		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	11	10	12	18		DvP	9	20	7	14	1
DRPM Rat.	3	24	4	14	14		DRPM Rat.	17	8	14	16	15

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis is finally getting a little more healthy now. JaMychal Green and James Ennis are healthy, and Mario Chalmers appears poised to return today. The big question is whether or not Chalmers will play, as the Grizzlies could very well hold him out in hopes of a trade – as they are doing with Tyreke Evans. Keep an eye out for news on this front as we get closer to lineup lock. If Chalmers is out, both Andrew Harrison and Wayne Selden will continue to see elevated minutes in the backcourt. This isn’t the greatest of matchups, and Harrison and Selden aren’t particularly good players. I will likely fade the whole group if Chalmers plays.

The frontcourt also carries limited appeal with everyone healthy. Minutes will get split up amongst Green, Ennis, Dillon Brooks, and Jarell Martin, with those players occupying two spots on the court. Memphis also carries the lowest implied team total of the day, so there’s not a ton of appeal here. The only decent play is Marc Gasol, and even he feels a bit over-priced. You can probably get away with fading the whole Grizzlies team if you want.

Notable Injuries

Tyreke Evans (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.8 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (8 of 12)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol, Wayne Selden and Andrew Harrison (if Chalmers is held out)

Toronto Raptors

Toronto is a solid home favorite today, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are a great team to target. Memphis plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and this game could very well be a slog at times. The Grizzlies maintain solid DvP numbers against almost every position as a result of that slow pace. I’ll still buy into some shares of Kyle Lowry at an affordable price tag, though. This is primarily because I am a glutton for punishment, but he had a strong game against Washington on Thursday and then wasn’t required to play a ton of minutes in a blowout win on Friday. The affordable price tag will suck me back in for some exposure here. DeMar DeRozan carries a higher salary tag but brings a little more stability to the table. He’s not a priority piece for me, as I prefer spending on other players this afternoon, but I certainly won’t argue with you if you want to play him.

It’s hard to get excited about the Raptors frontcourt here. Marc Gasol is a notoriously strong defender, and we never know when Jonas Valanciunas will play more than 24 minutes. That’s an easy spot to avoid today. The small forward spot remains a mess. The best point per dollar play from the group is probably Serge Ibaka. He’s not flashy by any means, but the price tag is affordable, and we know he will play around 30 minutes if the game stays close. He’s unlikely to kill your rosters today, and that’s about as ringing of an endorsement as we will get here.

Notable Injuries

C.J. Miles (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.1 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (9 of 12)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.1 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 2:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		218.5					Vegas Total		218.5
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		104.3					Implied Team Total		114.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.2					Pace Projection +/-		3.8
Projected Starters	Josh Hart	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Brandon Ingram	Julius Randle	Brook Lopez		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Terrance Ferguson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	14	2	8	3		DvP	22	24	26	27	15
DRPM Rat.	4	19	7	24	21		DRPM Rat.	14	7	26	16	20

Los Angeles Lakers

This game is the last game of the main slate on FanDuel, and it is the first game of a two game “late” slate on DraftKings. As such, you will probably have more exposure from this game on DK if you are playing the late slate. It’s an appealing contest from a fantasy perspective, as it should be one of the higher scoring games of the day. For the Lakers, we have to keep an eye on the injury status of Brandon Ingram. He is currently listed as questionable, and that might cause a problem on FanDuel since this game starts later than the others on the slate. We will have word before the late slate locks on DraftKings. I will likely avoid Ingram even if he plays, as he will generally see the solid defense of Paul George.

Oklahoma City carries a very strong defense, but they will certainly be hampered by the injury to Andre Roberson. Jordan Clarkson continues to come off the bench, but he should be secure in a 25-30 minute role with Lonzo Ball out. Josh Hart is also an interesting value after posting a 15 point, 14 rebound game over 35 minutes the other night, though I worry about him getting abused by Russell Westbrook. That last game was a bit of an outlier, and he had previously played just 14 minutes in the last two games. Proceed with caution. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should see more minutes in today’s matchup and is also a risk/reward play in the mid-range.

Speaking of risk/reward plays, I present the entire Lakers’ frontcourt to you. Julius Randle has come on very strong of late, and he is averaging 19 points and 11 rebounds per game over the last six contests. The most encouraging sign is that he is averaging 29.2 minutes in those games. I hesitate to list the always unpredictable Randle as an elite play, but he deserves it at this point. Kyle Kuzma is another solid option off the bench, but he has taken more of a back seat lately with Randle and Brook Lopez playing well. He gets a boost if Ingram is out, though.

Notable Injuries

Brandon Ingram (Questionable)
Lonzo Ball (Out)

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.7 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (10 of 12)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson (Cash), Brook Lopez, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma (if Ingram is out)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City draws a favorable home date with the Lakers here, and they will certainly benefit from the fact that the Lakers play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Even though the Lakers aren’t as bad of a defensive team as some people make them out to be, the pace masks their defensive improvement this year. Russell Westbrook should smash against the Lakers’ collection of point guards, while both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony will get their share of shots as well. The Thunder have won the first two meetings by 37 and 24 points, so the blowout risk is the biggest potential problem when it comes to production. We can’t predict blowouts, though, so fire up all three as potential plays.

The Thunder should be motivated for a win here, as they come in on a three game losing streak. Steven Adams is the “fourth wheel” on this team, but he is a better player than he often gets credit for. He is coming off a 23 point, 12 rebound performance against the Pelicans, and he logged 21 and 10 against the Lakers in their last meeting despite playing just 26 minutes because of the blowout. All of the cheap options on this squad carry an extremely low floor, so I can’t really endorse any of them with confidence. If you are looking for a punt play on the two game DraftKings slate, Jerami Grant is an effective per minute player that is coming off a double-double in 23 minutes the other night. He would be my pick of the group.

Notable Injuries

Andre Roberson (Out)

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 8.2 (1 of 12)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Jerami Grant

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