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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 15th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-01-16 02:26:12

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Click here to follow INSPYR on Twitter

Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks – 2:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Dallas Mavericks
minnesotanba Vegas Total 196.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 196.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 97.5 Team Total 99.0
Pace +/- -5.3 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 1 12 4 9 14 DvP 19 9 6 5 18
DRPM -1.42 0.01 0.20 -0.69 0.21 DRPM 1.03 -0.22 -2.40 2.92 -1.60

Minnesota Timberwolves

Good morning, Grinders! It’s an early Sunday slate, which means we get to enjoy games NBA action all day long. Since this is being published well before most of the news breaks, you’ll want to follow along on our DFS Alerts page and also check out my premium NBAIQ article, where I go into detail on some of the day’s relevant injury situations.

This first game is really tricky because we’re waiting on the status of Zach LaVine. He has missed the past two games due to a hip injury, and the viability of the other Timberwolves players really hinges on Lavine’s status. We should get news before lineups lock, and I am expecting him to play. He was at the arena on Friday going through warmups and was able to run. Brandon Rush played 36 and 39 minutes in the two games that LaVine has missed so far, and he’ll be an elite punt option if LaVine is out again. He only scored 23.3 FanDuel points in almost 40 minutes against the Thunder, though, so you’ll want to make sure he’s starting before locking him into your lineups.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Ricky Rubio have both played elite ball over their last three games, basically since LaVine went down. According to our CourtIQ tool, KAT has not seen an elite usage rate bump with LaVine off the court in the last three games. Diving further into the numbers, KAT was just more efficient with his touches and picked up more defensive stats that he usually does. As it stands, KAT is a high-floor cash game play, but he might lack elite tournament upside since he’ll have to score 50+ fantasy points to reach 5x value. If LaVine misses, Towns can still get there, but if LaVine plays, there is a risk that he may not. I also don’t believe that his recent rebounding and defensive stats are sustainable (he’s matched his season-high in both blocks and rebounds multiple times during the last three games). He’s over $10k on FanDuel, and there are plenty of center options available on this slate.

Rubio, on the other hand, has been a dime-dropping machine and has seen a 6 percent usage rate bump compared to his season averages. Rubio has a double-double in three straight games and has picked up 10 steals over that span. If he keeps this up, they might actually get something valuable for him in a trade, making passing on Steph Curry one percent less painful. Rubio had only two double-doubles all season before these games, so don’t expect him to keep it up if LaVine plays. He did recently dominate the Mavs, but his numbers in that game were boosted by five steals. If LaVine plays, Rubio is simply a high-risk GPP play. If LaVine remains out, on the other hand, the minutes will likely be there, making Rubio is a solid option in all formats.

Andrew Wiggins is so scoring-dependent that even with LaVine out of the lineup, he was unable to have truly dominant performances. He’s played well in the past with LaVine out of the lineup and will remain a tournament option. The small forward position is lacking a ton of depth today, so Wiggins is still a viable option since he’s not severely overpriced. Gorgui Dieng is back to slumping, and I can’t trust him even when he gets the minutes. There are just too many options to tilt the entire day if he does not play well. Nemanja Bjelica has been playing well next to KAT but rarely gets the minutes to make a huge impact. I have a slight hunch that Bjelica will start soon, but I’m just not sure whether that day will come before or after the trade deadline.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,500 $6,400 0.80 31.6 1.6 25.3 12.9 17.7% 2.2% 1 -1.42
Brandon Rush $4,100 $4,200 0.52 12.7 6.1 6.6 8.4 11.0% -1.5% 12 0.01
Andrew Wiggins $6,900 $6,600 0.82 36.9 0.5 30.3 -5.4 27.6% -0.6% 4 0.20
Gorgui Dieng $5,100 $5,200 0.79 32.8 -2.5 25.8 -5.7 15.1% 0.4% 9 -0.69
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,100 $9,700 1.17 35.7 2.9 41.9 7.4 27.2% -2.0% 14 0.21
Shabazz Muhammad $3,700 $3,900 0.66 18.1 4.5 12.0 5.0 18.8% -2.8% 4 N/A
Nemanja Bjelica $3,500 $3,200 0.72 16.8 3.6 12.1 -0.3 17.7% -5.0% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Brandon Rush (if LaVine is out), Zach LaVine (GPP if he starts)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs will be returning home after their one-game appearance in Mexico City. Andrew Bogut is out indefinitely due to a hamstring injury, and Mavericks started Seth Curry at shooting guard in their last game. Coach Rick Carlisle said that he likes what Curry brings to the team alongside Deron Williams, so we can expect Curry to start again (and it’s worth noting that if he does, and LaVine does as well, LaVine could crush this matchup). Curry is severely undersized for the position, and while he makes up for it on the offensive end, he’s never going to be an elite defensive player. Devin Booker just torched him and I have to believe that at this point in his career, LaVine is better than Booker.

With Andrew Bogut out, Dirk Nowitzki has been starting at center and has played about 30 minutes in three straight games. The Mavs won’t push the 19-year vet much more than that since he could easily get injured again. Still, since Dirk is getting the minutes, he should be considered a viable cash game play with GPP upside. He’s averaging 0.93 FP/Min so his current salary matches his expected production. He’s a bit more expensive on DK but the 3PM bonus makes up for it. Bogut being out of the lineup has also been good for Harrison Barnes. He can play more at power forward since he excels there instead of at small forward. Barnes is averaging 35.28 FanDuel points in his last seven games and his salary also matches his expected production. Gorgui Dieng really struggles at defending stretch four types, making Barnes an elite play here.

Deron Williams had his best fantasy performance against the Suns and should play 32+ minutes with Curry starting alongside him. He’s been volatile all season long but could be finding his groove for the second half of the season. With the position relatively deep today, Williams is not mandatory, but he does have the best DvP matchup on the team. Seth Curry and Wesley Matthews will also likely see heavy minutes, but how many Mavs can you use and actually roster and feel comfortable? Remember: this is a team that ranks 30th in points per game on the season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $6,300 $5,800 0.85 30.3 1.1 25.7 1.9 27.5% -1.3% 19 1.03
Wesley Matthews $5,400 $4,800 0.66 35.7 0.2 23.5 -5.1 20.8% -4.2% 9 -0.22
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,500 $3,000 0.48 22.2 -9.4 10.7 -4.9 11.7% 1.6% 6 -2.40
Harrison Barnes $7,000 $6,700 0.84 35.9 -2.4 30.3 3.9 25.4% 0.3% 5 2.92
Dirk Nowitzki $5,600 $6,000 0.93 24.1 6.4 22.4 6.8 26.6% -2.6% 18 -1.60
Seth Curry $4,000 $3,900 0.69 26.2 -3.7 18.0 -5.6 19.7% -3.7% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes

Secondary Plays – Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams

Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks – 3:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Atlanta Hawks
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 207.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 102.3 Team Total 105.3
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- -1.0
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 17 13 10 3 DvP 3 13 29 15 7
DRPM -2.27 -0.15 3.17 4.06 2.66 DRPM 3.11 -0.40 -0.89 -1.62 1.40

Milwaukee Bucks

Have you guys seen some of the dunks that The Greek Freak has nailed lately? This guy is an alien sent from another planet. I guess that aliens can catch the flu, too, and ABC was limited over the course of three games last week for that reason. He finally did play 36 minutes on Friday against the Heat, but he was averaging almost 39 minutes over the previous four games. While Antetokounmpo does start at “point guard,” there is no chance that Dennis Schroder will guard him. Earlier in the season when these two teams met, Thabo Sefolosha was seen basically shadowing him. In one of those games, he put up 56+ fantasy points, and in the other, one he scored under 20 fantasy points. He was in foul trouble for the lower-scoring of those two games, and one has to believe the upside is going to be there. Antetokounmpo is an extremely elite option and could have lower-than-normal ownership since Harden and Westbrook are on the all-day slate. If you’re playing on the early only slates and you don’t use Antetokounmpo, you’re doing it all wrong.

Jabari Parker has also been playing well and has scored 22 or more actual points in four straight games. He’s not as cheap as he was earlier in the season, but the former number two overall pick has scored over 40 fantasy points in both meetings with the Hawks this season. If I’m paying this much for my power forward, I’d rather just pay up for Paul Millsap. Add in the fact that Millsap sports a 4.06 DPRM and we have a situation where Parker becomes too risky for cash games since his salary is also slightly inflated.

Malcolm Brogdon will get the Schroder (-2.27 DPRM) treatment and is locked in as the starter. Brogdon has played over 30 minutes in seven of his last eight starts, and Matthew Dellavedova is safely behind him in the pecking order. Brogdon’s salary has spiked due to his recent strong play, but one has to believe it’ll keep going against a guy like Schroder, who we’ve been targeting with point guards all season long. Greg Monroe is getting consistent minutes now, but I’m not sure I can trust him because he’ll have to deal with Dwight Howard sooner or later. Beazus (Michael Beasley) is playing well again but is simply a GPP play, and one that I’ll be skipping today; the slate is just too deep today, and Beazus is not exactly cheap. Moving forward, though, he is someone to keep an eye on because his increase in minutes has had a direct correlation to Tony Snell’s decrease in minutes. Matthew Dellavedova is also cheap, but as with Beasley, I’m just not sure we need to dig that deep today.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,300 $10,000 1.36 34.7 -11.0 47.2 -21.9 29.7% 4.2% 27 -2.27
Malcolm Brogdon $5,400 $5,700 0.77 24.2 6.4 18.7 12.1 20.3% 2.8% 17 -0.15
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,400 0.52 29.4 5.1 15.2 1.1 12.3% -4.0% 13 3.17
Jabari Parker $7,400 $7,100 0.96 34.1 3.6 32.9 8.5 25.3% 0.0% 10 4.06
John Henson $3,500 $3,100 0.86 20.1 -2.7 17.3 -4.1 16.0% -1.4% 3 2.66
Greg Monroe $6,300 $6,000 1.17 21.2 8.3 24.7 10.1 23.1% 0.6% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks will continue their homestand this afternoon with Paul Millsap playing well since his name was brought up in trade rumors. He is averaging 38.35 FanDuel points over his last four games and gets to exploit Jabari Parker (-1.62 DRPM) in this one. Millsap is second on the team with a true usage rate of 25.1 percent and should play over 35 minutes in this contest. Millsap is the most expensive true power forward on the slate, and he also has the highest ceiling (discounting Karl-Anthony Towns and DeMarcus Cousins, who also fall into the power forward section due to multi-position eligibility but are not even in the same salary range as Millsap).

Dwight Howard did not play that well in his lone appearance against the Bucks this season. His minutes have been trending down and his salary is back near its season-low. There are too many good center options on the slate to consider Howard first, but his upside and expected low ownership combine to make him a viable GPP play. Dennis Schroder’s minutes have also been trending in the wrong direction, but they are bound to snap back towards his season averages. He was in foul trouble against Boston but also played under 30 minutes in the two games prior to that. With his salary being back to playable, he’ll also be a viable low-owned GPP option.

Tim Hardaway Jr. has made the most of his minutes since the departure of Kyle Korver. THJ is averaging 28.56 FanDuel points in his last three games off the bench. He’s a streaky player who is hot right now, but we need to remember that he’s extremely scoring-dependent, and his recent big game was boosted by an uncharacteristic three steals. Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha have seen a dip in production with THJ playing well, but I’m inclined to believe Sefolosha will play heavy minutes against ABC. So, it’s a good spot to Bazeless.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,600 $6,200 0.97 31.0 -0.4 30.1 3.8 29.8% 0.9% 3 3.11
Kent Bazemore $4,300 $4,000 0.72 27.1 -3.3 19.6 -7.1 20.4% -5.8% 13 -0.40
Thabo Sefolosha $3,900 $3,900 0.76 25.9 0.0 19.6 -2.1 14.3% -1.1% 29 -0.89
Paul Millsap $8,100 $7,900 1.06 33.9 -0.3 35.9 2.2 25.1% 0.3% 15 -1.62
Dwight Howard $7,300 $7,000 1.16 29.5 0.1 34.1 0.0 18.9% 0.0% 7 1.40
Tim Hardaway $4,700 $4,900 0.75 22.3 3.9 16.7 7.8 22.7% -1.1% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP), Dennis Schroder (GPP)

New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors – 3:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Toronto Raptors
newyorknba Vegas Total 219.0 torontonba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 114.3
Pace +/- -0.8 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 2 10 19 10 DvP 9 28 12 20 29
DRPM 0.61 -2.12 0.67 1.61 -0.49 DRPM -2.22 -0.59 -1.46 1.71 1.62

New York Knicks

The Knicks will begin a back-to-back set tonight in Toronto then play the Hawks at home tomorrow. The Unicorn, PorzinGAWD (Kristaps Porzingis) is currently being listed as questionable, but he is closer to not playing. Porzingis has not really been playing up to his standards since he missed the game on New Year’s Eve. Lance Thomas started in his place against the Bulls and played about 29 minutes, but he is a low-end DFS play who is yet to even reach 20 FanDuel points in a game this season. With Porzingis out of the lineup, Carmelo Anthony starts at power forward, and Thomas starts at small forward. According to our CourtIQ tool, Anthony sees a 4.8 percent usage rate increase with Porzingis off the court this season. The Knicks have one of the lowest implied team totals, and it’ll be tough to use Anthony in cash games. On a full slate, I won’t touch him in tournaments, although I understand the appeal due to likely low ownership.

Derrick Rose has played over 30 minutes in back-to-back games but does not possess elite upside here. Joakim Noah and Kyle O’Quinn are splitting the center minutes, but Noah is playing through a shoulder injury. KOQ still does not get a ton of minutes but deserves to be mentioned since Porziginis is not expected to be in the lineup. Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings just don’t move the needle for me. Mindaugas Kuzminskas could also see a healthy amount of minutes if this game gets out of hand early. The Knicks play again tomorrow and won’t want to use Anthony if they are down big in the second half.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,200 $6,300 0.90 31.9 1.0 28.6 0.3 28.0% -1.5% 11 0.61
Courtney Lee $3,900 $3,700 0.57 30.9 -2.3 17.7 -5.6 13.9% -1.0% 2 -2.12
Carmelo Anthony $8,100 $8,000 1.04 33.4 -1.2 34.8 0.7 29.0% 0.3% 10 0.67
Kristaps Porzingis $7,400 $6,900 1.01 34.1 -8.3 34.3 -17.4 23.3% -0.8% 19 1.61
Joakim Noah $4,900 $5,000 0.93 22.6 -0.9 21.1 2.0 14.4% 2.2% 10 -0.49
Brandon Jennings $4,600 $4,000 0.82 23.6 -1.2 19.4 -1.7 23.2% 2.1% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Kyle O’Quinn, Mindaugas Kuzminskas

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are coming off a game with the Nets in which they scored a season-high 132 points. Kyle Lowry played 35 minutes and still put up 41 FanDuel points. Lowry will be an elite option tonight against the Knicks. The blowout is a concern, but as he’s proved against the Nets (and multiple other times this season), he can still get his numbers in a blowout. The ceiling might not be as high, but his floor looks safe. DeMar DeRozan did not even have to play 30 minutes against the Nets, and he’ll also be an elite option against the Knicks. Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll have also been playing well recently, and Carroll looks like a lock for 30 minutes. He’s still cheap and will be charged with guarding Carmelo Anthony for most of the game.

Lucas Nogueira started against the Nets and played about 30 minutes. The Raptors could change their lineup again since Bebe (Nogueira) does not match up well with Melo. Terrence Ross, Cory Joseph, and Norman Powell also deserve consideration in this one but are all too risky for cash. Joseph is coming off a nice performance against the Nets, but you can pretty much say that about anyone in the league. Ross did not have a huge performance but did play 30 minutes. If Ross is going to play 30 minutes at this cheap of a salary, he’s worth a GPP shot. Norman Powell should only be used when he starts.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,900 $8,400 1.07 37.5 4.6 40.0 5.8 26.5% -3.2% 9 -2.22
DeMar DeRozan $9,100 $8,500 1.15 35.7 4.4 41.0 12.0 34.2% 1.1% 28 -0.59
DeMarre Carroll $4,000 $4,900 0.68 26.5 10.0 18.0 6.2 15.0% -0.5% 12 -1.46
Patrick Patterson $3,800 $3,500 0.63 28.0 -6.5 17.7 -6.0 12.3% -1.3% 20 1.71
Jonas Valanciunas $5,600 $6,000 0.97 26.9 1.0 26.0 3.1 18.3% 2.2% 29 1.62
Cory Joseph $4,000 $3,700 0.76 22.1 1.1 16.8 -2.3 21.0% -3.7% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll

Secondary Plays – Terrence Ross (GPP)

Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets – 6:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Brooklyn Nets
houstonnba Vegas Total 233.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 233.0
Vegas Spread -12.5 Vegas Spread 12.5
Team Total 122.8 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- 5.5 Pace +/- 2.4
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Montrezl Harrell Proj. Starter Spencer Dinwiddie Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Harris Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 30 28 30 28 30 DvP 14 22 22 26 17
DRPM -0.16 -2.80 -1.08 2.27 -0.39 DRPM 1.51 -1.38 1.84 -0.59 -0.05

Houston Rockets

Welp, the Rockets get the top implied team total on this slate against the Nets. Finding a way to fit in Harden and Westbrook together on this slate seems like a viable strategy. Yes, the Rockets are favored by over 12 points, but they are also projected to score 7.4 points over their season average. It would not surprise me to see Harden drop a triple-double with 40 actual points in this contest. Harden put up 68 DraftKings points against the Nets earlier this season, and the Nets actually kept it close. His floor is so high and the ceiling so immense that I’ll find a way to play him. My favorite tournament play to pair him up with is Eric Gordon. EG just returned from a two-game absence due to a toe issue and still played 31 minutes. His shot was not dropping, but things have a way of working out against the Nets. However, the toe injury does keep him from being a viable cash game play.

Trevor Ariza is my favorite guy to pair with Harden in cash games. The small forward position is not exactly deep today, and Ariza should be able to exceed salary-based expectations here. Patrick Beverley is also a lock for 30 minutes and is getting over a wrist issue. He’s been shooting poorly over his last four games but will pick up defensive stats in this game and is priced affordably across the industry. If he has a bad game, he generally puts up enough peripherals to keep him from ruining your lineup. Ryan Anderson went cold against Memphis, but that was because they stuck Marc Gasol on him for parts of the game. There’s no Gasol in Brooklyn, so Ryno is also playable. If Sam Dekker is out, Corey Brewer might even get a chance to shine. I won’t be using him, but it’s something to watch out for. Montrezl Harrell and Nene have been taking turns starting, with Harrell starting the last three. This might be the time for a Nene swap since Brook Lopez is lining up on the opposing end. I’m not sure how many Rockets you feel like using, but all of them make sense.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,100 0.82 31.0 1.6 25.3 -6.1 15.7% -0.8% 30 -0.16
James Harden $11,800 1.48 36.6 1.5 54.1 10.4 39.0% 5.8% 28 -2.80
Trevor Ariza $5,600 0.76 34.2 6.3 25.9 0.3 14.9% -1.0% 30 -1.08
Ryan Anderson $5,000 0.73 31.1 4.4 22.6 1.5 16.9% -2.1% 28 2.27
Montrezl Harrell $5,200 0.92 18.8 6.0 17.3 10.7 17.9% -0.5% 30 -0.39
Eric Gordon $5,700 0.85 30.6 2.7 25.9 4.4 23.8% -0.9% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Ryan Anderson, Nene

Brooklyn Nets

Even though the Nets are terrible (Charles Barkley voice) and are giving their amazing draft pick to Boston (insert crying Jordan), they’ll still find a way to score some points tonight. Brook Lopez has been pretty consistent, and should be able to score about 32-35 fantasy points in this contest. If this thing stays close for whatever reason, BroLo has a shot at scoring 50 fantasy points. He’s cheap enough that he’s in play on DK in cash, even though he’s not necessarily a lock per se. I’ve enjoyed using Trevor Booker in uptempo games, and this definitely qualifies as one. Add in the fact that Ryno is not an elite defender or rebounder, and I like Booker’s chances to exceed value.

Sean Kilpatrick gets to rot on the bench so that Joe Harris and Bojan Bogdanovic can play and keep their trade value high. We’ve been targeting shooting guards against Houston for years, since Harden (-1.38 DPRM) is not exactly an elite defender. Still, I have a tough time believing that Kilpatrick will rot on the bench in this game because Bogdanovic is terrible on defense and Joe Harris is not all that good either. If they want to keep this close for three quarters at home, Kilpatrick is their best shot. Kilpatrick is cheaper than Bogdanovic and a couple early fouls by the Croatian or Harris could open the door for the former D-League All-Star. Spencer Dinwiddie has also been ballin’ lately, but I’m hesitant to play him against Patrick Beverley defense (1.51 DRPM, second-best among point guards in the NBA).
h3. Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $4,100 0.71 16.7 7.3 11.9 7.4 18.5% -4.3% 14 1.51
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,400 0.75 26.8 2.0 20.1 3.3 20.9% 0.1% 22 -1.38
Joe Harris $3,600 0.61 22.9 -4.0 14.1 -3.9 16.2% -2.5% 22 1.84
Trevor Booker $5,400 0.97 27.3 -3.3 26.5 -1.7 17.1% —4.4% 26 -0.59
Brook Lopez $7,000 1.10 29.3 2.8 32.2 -1.2 27.5% -0.8% 17 -0.05
Sean Kilpatrick $4,100 0.84 27.3 -1.8 23.0 -2.8 24.6% 2.2% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Trevor Booker, Brook Lopez

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (GPP), Bojan Bogdanovic

Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings – 9:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Sacramento Kings
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 212.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 107.3 Team Total 105.3
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Darren Collison Garrett Temple Rudy Gay Anthony Tolliver DeMarcus Cousins
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 12 18 25 21 12 DvP 23 6 8 13 5
DRPM -2.36 0.44 1.62 -1.13 0.64 DRPM -0.21 0.36 1.95 1.60 2.30

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder travel to the California state capital today to face the Kings. Russell Westbrook continues to drop triple-doubles on the league and actually had a cripple-double (triple-double with 10 turnovers) in his last game. It was his second cripple-double of the season, and that’s the only thing hurting his fantasy value. The Kings are not an elite defensive team, and with the spread expected to be close, Westbrook looks like a strong cash game play with tournament-winning upside. His ownership could be lower than usual in tournaments since he has underperformed salary-based expectations in his last three games on FanDuel. Still, this is Beastbrook, and I doubt he’ll ever really go low-owned for the rest of the season.

Enes Kanter has simply been on a tear over his last 13 games, averaging 29.67 FanDuel points. He’s even stepped it up over his last three but has only played over 30 minutes twice in those contests. I’m afraid the bottom could fall out at any time, but he’s shown that his floor is high. The Kings are big in the frontcourt, so he seems safe here. His salary has spiked to the point where he might not have elite upside. Steven Adams IS is a lock for 30+ minutes and is now cheaper than Kanter. I like him slightly more due to the discount, but both bigs are in play here.

Victor Oladipo is getting the minutes as well, and this could be the perfect buy-low spot for him. He’s now played eight games since returning from a wrist injury and should be able to at least make salary-based expectations. His game logs are really interesting, as well. He’s only had huge games in either overtime games (versus Denver and Washington) or against the Nets and Rockets. Basically, he’s played well in the spots you would expect him to play well. As always, he’s unlikely to have a huge game with Westbrook hogging all the usage, but he should get the job done in this one. Andre Roberson exceeded value against the T-Wolves but will be dealing with Rudy Gay all game. Cameron Payne is also working his way back into the rotation since missing the start of the season due to a foot injury. These teams have been linked in trade rumors, but since Payne has been injured, nothing has come of it. Payne played a season-high 16 minutes against the T-Wolves and could play about 18 tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,500 $12,800 1.66 34.7 0.4 57.7 2.0 45.7% -7.9% 12 -2.36
Victor Oladipo $5,700 $5,600 0.78 33.9 -4.3 26.3 -2.4 21.1% 0.0% 18 0.44
Andre Roberson $3,900 $4,000 0.57 31.1 3.0 17.7 2.2 10.6% -0.6% 25 1.62
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,100 0.63 20.9 -3.6 13.2 -2.6 14.4% 2.1% 21 -1.13
Steven Adams $5,800 $5,300 0.86 30.1 5.3 26.0 5.8 16.6% -0.2% 12 0.64
Enes Kanter $6,200 $5,900 1.15 21.0 5.2 24.1 9.6 25.5% 0.4% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter, Victor Oladipo

Sacramento Kings

The Kings continue their MASSIVE seven-game home stand tonight against the Thunder. DeMarcus Cousins has not had a huge game in a while (55 fantasy points is not huge for Cousins), but one could be brewing here. Even though the Kings have one of the lower implied totals on the slate, they still are projected to score over their season average. Rudy Gay return could be hindering the upside, but in a game that is projected to be close, Cousins deserves a look in tournaments. If you’re making one lineup, look elsewhere, but if you’re multi-entering, consider Cousins. Work on roster construction and see how the value pieces fit around him. He has GPP-winning upside and could have slightly lower ownership than usual with Harden and Westbrook on the slate with him. He’ll also be in a tough matchup with Steven Adams (2.30 DPRM), and that could drive ownership away as well.

Rudy Gay is also a strong tournament option, and even though Andre Roberson (1.95 DPRM) is a strong defender, I like Gay to continue his hot play against a team he could possibly get traded to. He’s not cheap, but the position is not deep, so he’s definitely in play. Garrett Temple is seeing over 30 minutes, but his shot attempts are limited with Rudy Gay back. Ty Lawson has passed Darren Collison again, and since we have been playing point guards versus Westbrook, he’s worth a look. Just keep in mind that he can single-handedly ruin your lineup, which takes him out of cash game consideration. Anthony Tolliver has started the last three games and is also a lock for 30+ minutes. He’s under $4k on both sites and looks like a viable option in what is expected to be a close game. Matt Barnes is back in the doghouse, so fade that situation.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $4,400 $4,100 0.73 29.6 1.4 21.6 0.1 21.8% -1.9% 23 -0.21
Garrett Temple $4,100 $3,900 0.64 25.5 9.6 16.3 1.8 14.3% -2.4% 6 0.36
Rudy Gay $7,200 $6,700 0.95 33.8 1.8 32.1 -3.0 25.2% 0.2% 8 1.95
Anthony Tolliver $3,900 $3,900 0.62 20.5 4.6 12.7 6.1 12.8% 3.3% 13 1.60
DeMarcus Cousins $10,400 $10,200 1.40 34.5 -2.8 48.5 -1.2 36.3% -4.0% 5 2.30
Ty Lawson $4,300 $4,000 0.74 25.2 2.4 18.6 1.8 21.2% 4.8% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins (GPP), Rudy Gay (GPP), Anthony Tolliver

Secondary Plays – Ty Lawson or Darren Collison, Garrett Temple

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.