NBA Grind Down: Sunday, November 5th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-11-05 18:51:44

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 3:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		219.5					Vegas Total		219.5
			Vegas Spread		13.0					Vegas Spread		-13.0
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		116.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.4					Pace Projection +/-		1.7
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Derrick Rose	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	29	29	18	16	14		DvP	17	17	17	29	23
DRPM	-2.53	-0.77	1.57	1.37	1.93		DRPM	-2.53	-1.09	2.66	N/A	4.86

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Delaney (Doubtful)
Mike Muscala (Out)

We have a very healthy ten game Sunday slate on tap, with two early games and eight late games on the docket. I would recommend taking it easy on the two game early slate, as one of the two games could very well be a blowout. That is this first contest between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta comes into this game with a 1-8 record, and they are destined to be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. There are some injury situations that could create some value on this squad, however. Malcolm Delaney missed the last game and is listed as doubtful for today, which means that Isaiah Taylor should get plenty of run after playing 25 solid minutes off the bench on Friday. He’s a decent punt play at $3,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I don’t see any early contests on FantasyDraft today. Mike Muscala is also going to be out today, which should open up more minutes for the likes of Dewayne Dedmon and John Collins. Collins has been impressive this season and is coming off an eight point, 12 rebound, two steal, four block game against the Rockets. Taylor and Collins get the injury bump today.

Outside of those two players, there’s not a ton to love in general with the Hawks. The good news is that they do get to face a Cavaliers team that has been underwhelming on the defensive end of the floor. Dennis Schroder has disappointed in some solid matchups this week, but he leads the team in usage and should bounce back today. He’s a strong play on the short early only slate. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince are also decent secondary options. Remember, though, that there is blowout risk here with Atlanta being installed as 12 point underdogs.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 101.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Collins, Isaiah Taylor (value, assuming Delaney is out), Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Tristan Thompson (Out)
Iman Shumpert (Out)

LeBron James went into beast mode the other night and basically single-handedly carried the team to victory over the Wizards. He played almost the whole game and logged a line that included 23-of-34 from the floor, 57 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. That’s not bad for a day’s work. Atlanta obviously doesn’t have anybody capable of slowing King James down. As long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout, James is clearly your top overall play in the two early games. He’s a risky player to fade in any format. The big game from James the other night obviously limited the production of everyone else on the team, but don’t sleep on Kevin Love moving forward. He has picked up his role on offense this year with Kyrie Irving off to Boston, and his DFS price tag is still more than fair given his production so far. I expect him to have a nice bounce-back game today.

James and Love carry the largest chunk of the offensive load, so there isn’t much available for everyone else. However, the injury to Tristan Thompson is going to open up more minutes for Jae Crowder and Jeff Green. Crowder logged 34 minutes while Green logged 25 in the game against the Wizards. Both guys are low upside options, but they are reasonable value plays, especially on the short two game slate. Derrick Rose and J.R. Smith are off the fantasy radar despite being starters, as they simply aren’t that involved in the offense. James runs the show and relegates Derrick Rose to “watch this” duty at times, while Smith shares time with Dwyane Wade.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.8 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.3 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 8.5 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Jeff Green

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET

Miami Heat							Los Angeles Clippers
			Vegas Total		209.0					Vegas Total		209.0
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		101.8					Implied Team Total		107.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.0					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside		Projected Starters	Patrick Beverley	Austin Rivers	Danilo Gallinari	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	12	16	12	19		DvP	10	10	9	22	22
DRPM	1.89	-1.78	0.38	0.41	3.57		DRPM	-1.61	-0.06	-0.16	1.72	2.52

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

None

The scuffling Heat travel to Los Angeles this afternoon to take on the Clippers, but this is expected to be a competitive game, with the Heat checking in as just six point underdogs. The rotations for Miami have been very difficult to figure out of late, as ten players logged at least 12 minutes in their last game against Denver. Hassan Whiteside is the highest upside option on this team, but his conditioning is not all the way back to full strength yet, and he played just 24 minutes the other night. It’s hard to endorse him at this point. If you need a center on the early slate, Jordan is a better option on the other side of this game. Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters are your highest volume guys here, but Dragic gets a massive downgrade today because he will have to deal with the defense of Patrick Beverley. Waiters is your safest option in the backcourt today.

Up front, the best option just might be James Johnson. I actually prefer him when he is coming off the bench, as he can play with energy and lead the second unit. Okaro White drew the start in the last game, but he played just 13 minutes. Johnson logged a double-double in 30 minutes off the bench, and he matches up nicely with the frontcourt of the Clippers. Give him a look on the short afternoon slate. Josh Richardson is no longer a safe play with the team up to full health, but I don’t mind him as a GPP option.

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dion Waiters, James Johnson

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (GPP), Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

Milos Teodosic (Out)

This game won’t be played at a break-neck pace, but the Clippers do have a healthy implied team total of 107 points. This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Clippers, as they lost at home to the Grizzlies on Saturday. The good news with this team is that we generally know that the starters will get plenty of minutes in close games, as the bench is pretty much worthless outside of Lou Williams. All five starters logged at least 35 minutes yesterday, as Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan both logged double-doubles while Patrick Beverley was surprisingly aggressive offensively on his way to 23 points. The entire starting lineup is in play on the short slate simply because of the safety provided by their playing time.

Miami has been stronger against the guard/wing positions defensively this year, but they are allowing much more production to the frontcourt. They rank 21st in DvP against both the power forward and center positions. That’s not a good sign when you have to face off against Griffin and Jordan. Both are among the best plays on the early slate. Even though backcourt players haven’t done as well, the price tags are reasonable on the likes of Beverley, Austin Rivers, and Danilo Gallinari. Again, the entire starting five for the Clippers is in play today. Lou Williams can even be considered as a GPP option off the bench. This team is definitely one you want to target on the early slate.

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.0 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Austin Rivers, Danilio Gallinari, Lou Williams (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic – 6:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		105.3					Implied Team Total		102.3
			Pace Projection +/-		3.5					Pace Projection +/-		-3.4
Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	22	11	28	13		DvP	1	1	29	1	8
DRPM	-0.63	-1.05	-1.20	-0.61	2.26		DRPM	-2.16	-0.10	N/A	1.59	2.81

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

None

Now we are on to a healthy eight game evening slate, which is very large for a Sunday. After a pair of losses to open the season, the Celtics have turned on the jets and have now won seven games in a row. The return of Marcus Morris will ease the minutes burden on the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and they are a bit over-priced based their early season production, so be very careful with them at their current price points. Kyrie Irving is starting to pick it up offensively, and the Celtics draw a nice matchup here against an Orlando team that ranks fourth in the league in tempo. Irving is the only backcourt member that really interests me, although Marcus Smart does have some upside off the bench. He’s a reasonable play at $5,100 on DraftKings.

Up front, there isn’t a ton to love here. As I mentioned above, I am off Tatum and Brown because of the return of Marcus Morris. Aron Baynes has been starting but is not playing a ton of minutes and is not a fantasy option. The steady play here is Al Horford, and his matchup isn’t necessarily a bad one against Nikola Vucevic, who is not known as a strong defensive center. Horford doesn’t possess the upside of some of the other centers on the board, but he is a decent cash game play. The Celtics do get a bit of a matchup-based boost here, but with Morris getting healthy, we aren’t going to see players logging 36+ minutes per night.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 102.8 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.7 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – Al Horford (cash), Marcus Smart (DK only)

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Elfrid Payton (Questionable)
D.J. Augustin (Out)

This is an interesting spot for the Magic. Surprisingly, Boston currently ranks either 1st or 2nd in the league in DvP against three positions: point guard, shooting guard, and power forward. They also rank a respectable 10th against the center position. In short, Boston has been solid defensively. To no surprise based on those numbers, they lead the league in overall defensive efficiency. This is not a cupcake matchup for the Magic, and their players are largely over-priced based on their fast pace of play and the fact that they have already faced the Nets twice. The point guard position is a very interesting discussion here. The first part of that is we don’t yet know the status of Elfrid Payton. If he returns today, this is a 100% hands-off spot. We can’t trust Payton in his first game back after an extended absence. If he is out, though, give Shelvin Mack a look as a value play. He was solid but unspectacular in a spot start the other night, but he will be locked into heavy minutes if both Payton and Augustin are out again. While Boston has been great defensively, Kyrie Irving is not necessarily a point guard defender that we need to fear.

Outside of the point guard spot, there’s little to love in a difficult matchup. Terrence Ross and Jonathan Simmons are both too risky for me on an eight game slate, while Nikola Vucevic isn’t a primary piece for me today. I will admit that his price tag has corrected nicely, however. The strongest play outside of a potential value point guard in Mack is Aaron Gordon, who is well on his way to a breakout season. He has dominated on a few occasions already this year, despite the fact that his season has been slowed by injury already. There is certainly some risk, but he will need to have a big game for Orlando to have a chance. He is a very strong tournament option.

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 111.3 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -9.1 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 93.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Shelvin Mack (IF Payton is out), Aaron Gordon (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon (cash), Nikola Vucevic

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		0.3					Pace Projection +/-		2.0
Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Norman Powell	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	6	3	17	11		DvP	13	13	30	15	3
DRPM	0.62	-2.21	-1.29	0.84	0.71		DRPM	-0.83	-0.94	0.03	1.54	1.33

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

John Wall (Questionable)

The big news in this game, of course, is the injury situation with John Wall. If he is unable to go today, there will be plenty of usage and shot attempts to go around for the other players on this team. If we load up Court IQ over the past two seasons with Wall off the floor, we see that Bradley Beal has a skyrocketed usage rate of 33% (5% higher than when Wall is on the court). If Wall is out today, lock in Beal as a very strong play. If Wall plays, Beal is more of a secondary option in a fairly difficult matchup. Tim Frazier and Jodie Meeks would also carry some low-end value if Wall can’t play. The return of Markieff Morris will hurt the value of Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre, though Oubre is coming off a strong game against Cleveland the other night. Both players are off my radar today.

The remaining starter on this team is Marcin Gortat, who is a low upside option, but he is reasonably priced on all sites. I don’t mind him as a cash game center today if you are struggling to fit one of the higher dollar options in there. Again, the big thing to monitor here is the status of Wall, as that completely changes the landscape when it comes to this Wizards team.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.8 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Bradley Beal (IF Wall is out)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (IF Wall is in), John Wall (if active), Marcin Gortat (cash)

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

C.J. Miles (Questionable)

Toronto continues to be led by its backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, though Lowry has really struggled offensively this season. He is averaging just 13 points per contest, which is nine points lower than his marks from the last two years. That production dip is largely due to a 39% mark in field goal percentage, so hopefully this is just a minor slump that Lowry can shoot his way through. He’s very reasonably priced on all sites, and I’ll bank on a rebound performance starting today. DeRozan is your safer option at this point. Both are decent plays against a Wizards team that will be happy to push the tempo.

The frontcourt is a little less settled with this team. Serge Ibaka has seen his minutes trend in the wrong direction this year and has been dealing with injuries, and Jonas Valanciunas has also missed time with injury as well. The Valanciunas injury was very disappointing, as he had a strong preseason and a great season opener before going down. If you can stomach the playing time risk, Valanciunas is definitely a live GPP option at his current salary, which is very affordable. The emergence of Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam will continue to eat into the playing time of both players as the season drags on. Lastly, Norman Powell will get a bit of a boost on the wing if C.J. Miles can’t play (questionable due to illness), which would put Powell on the punt play radar this evening.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 109.3 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 16)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (cash), Norman Powell, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 7:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		202.5					Vegas Total		202.5
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Implied Team Total		97.8					Implied Team Total		104.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-4.5
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Joe Ingles	Rodney Hood	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	James Harden	Eric Gordon	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	15	15	7	10	17		DvP	5	5	19	6	1
DRPM	-1.81	-0.13	1.54	-0.16	1.25		DRPM	0.67	0.04	0.17	2.41	6.03

Utah Jazz

Notable Injuries

None

This game will feature an interesting contrast in styles between the grind it out Jazz and the more up tempo Rockets. Utah ranks dead last in the league in pace of play, so you know Houston will try to speed them up tonight, especially since this game is in Houston. The Jazz are coming off a relatively rough home loss to the Raptors in which they logged just 11 assists in the game — as a team. Ricky Rubio is capable of averaging that by himself. Expect a better team effort in this game, and I don’t mind targeting the trio of Rubio, Rodney Hood, and/or Rudy Gobert in this game. Hood seems to be as close to full strength as he has been yet this season, as he played 35 minutes and attempted 19 shots against the Raptors. Houston is average to below average at defending the guard spots, especially with Chris Paul on the shelf.

Gobert draws a tough matchup against Clint Capela, but he has the athleticism to hang in the matchup and logged double-doubles in all three head-to-head games last year. While Gobert hasn’t shown the massive upside that we all expected without Gordon Hayward, he is still a fine target at center. As for the value options, it sure looks like Donovan Mitchell is going to thrive in a sixth man role for this team. He played 32 minutes and attempted a whopping 20 shots of his own in the last game, so fire him up as a fine value piece. His price tag is a bargain on DraftKings and FantasyDraft ($3,800 on DK), whereas he is more of a secondary play at $5,500 on FanDuel. Derrick Favors is a reasonable value selection if you need a value at power forward, but he is by no means a primary play.

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 98.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.8 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell (DK & FDRAFT)

Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell (FD), Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Chris Paul (Out)

As for the Houston side of this game, it’s very difficult to get excited about a lot of players. They draw a poor pace matchup against the Jazz, and their key players don’t come cheap. James Harden has only eclipsed 60 DK points once this year, and when you are paying a five figure price tag, you would like to see that more often. A matchup against Utah doesn’t scream “pay up for me” today. Of course, Harden still carries a very high floor, and he will have lower ownership here, so he’s a reasonable secondary option. Eric Gordon is the guy I will definitely be avoiding in this matchup, and I certainly won’t target Clint Capela against the menacing Gobert.

In short, this is probably a day where you can get away with fading Houston. The low usage of other guys like Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson doesn’t interest me today.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.2 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 ( of 16)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 96.0 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.3 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon (GPP)

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