NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 5th

Jump to Page 1 2


Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Indiana Pacers
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 212.5 indiananba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Implied Team Total 107.0 Implied Team Total 105.5
Pace Projection +/- -1.5 Pace Projection +/- 2.4
Projected Starters Quinn Cook Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Projected Starters Darren Collison Victor Oladipo Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 6 6 11 11 23 DvP 12 23 12 22 12
DRPM Rat. 19 1 24 5 12 DRPM Rat. 22 9 23 2 5

Golden State Warriors

Notable Injuries

Andre Iguodala (Doubtful)
Draymond Green (Questionable)
Kevon Looney (Probable)

Golden State travels to Indiana which not much to play for other than to keep themselves tuned up for the playoffs. They are 57-21 and have the #2 seed in the Western Conference locked up. This game is not available on the DraftKings main slate and I’ll analyze it for FanDuel purposes. It is available for a DraftKings Showdown contest and I’ll do some brief analysis for that.

Draymond Green is questionable after tweaking his ankle in their last game, but he is expected to play. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team decided to hold him out given the meaningless nature of the contest so this is something we’re going to want to keep an eye on. Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney would benefit most from his absence with Bell going from irrelevant to mildly interesting. Looney is returning from an illness. He’s an interesting option on the DraftKings Showdown contest where he is only priced at $2,900. He should see 20+ minutes and is easily the best value for this one-game contest.

I expect five other players besides Looney to top the 20 minute mark with Nick Young seeing in the low 20’s off the bench and the primary four starters Green, Durant, Cook, and Thompson all seeing between 30 to 35 minutes. The Pacers play at a slow pace (2nd slowest on this slate) and I can’t see the Warriors expending a lot of energy and focus on this game. It’s hard to pay $11K for Durant on FanDuel with what I project to be a modest 45-50 fantasy point effort. Klay Thompson is worth a look on FanDuel at a thin SG position, but outside of that I have no interest in any Warriors players unless we get news that Draymond is sitting.

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 113.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -6.9 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (24 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Quinn Cook $6,000 15.7 13.5 20.6 12.8 0.76 16.4% 3 6 19
Klay Thompson $6,500 30.5 1.5 34.3 -0.9 0.89 20.4% 23 6 1
Kevin Durant $11,000 47.4 -1.9 34.3 -4.8 1.38 26.9% 3 11 24
Draymond Green $8,200 36.9 -2.8 32.9 0.2 1.12 16.7% 17 11 5
Zaza Pachulia $3,500 14.8 -10.4 14.2 -5.8 1.05 14.8% 25 23 12
Nick Young $3,700 11.0 -0.1 17.2 8.1 0.64 15.6% N/A N/A N/A
Jordan Bell $4,600 16.4 1.5 14.6 0.3 1.12 12.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kevon Looney (DK Showdown)

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson


Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

None

The Pacers are 46-32 and currently secure in the 5 spot of the Eastern Conference. They have a slim shot at getting home court in the first round as they are two games behind both Philadelphia and Cleveland. At home, I expect them to play motivated and to win and for their rotation to be normal as long as the game is close.

For the DraftKings Showdown contest, there are two Pacers players that are worthy as complete punts. Glenn Robinson is the stone minimum at $1,000 and while he’ll probably only see 10 minutes of playing time he doesn’t need much to pay off that price and rostering him will let you get the likes of Durant and Oladipo on your team. Lance Stephenson at $4,100 is the other player that stands out to me as he should see around 20 minutes of playing time at a affordable price.

Stephenson is also viable on FanDuel as a punt option as he’s minimum price there. He’s played at least 20 minutes in four of his last five games and this will be a pace up game for the Pacers as the Warriors have the fastest pace of any team playing today. Victor Oladipo is too expensive on FanDuel at $9,500 but he is coming off 50+ fantasy point games his last two games as the team rides him into the postseason. He’s a secondary GPP option, but that’s a hefty price tag to pay off.

Thaddeus Young, Darren Collison, and Myles Turner are three starters on the Pacers who see consistent playing time. All three fall a little short of being viable DFS options for me today, although a potential Draymond Green absence could make the Pacers bigs a little more interesting and would probably be enough for me to make Turner a secondary option. The one other Pacer I do have interest in is Bojan Bogdanovic. He’s played at least 31 minutes the last five games and scored 25 or more fantasy points in three of those games. He’s very affordable on FanDuel at just $4,900 and is a safe option.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (4 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,900 27.3 -3.2 29.7 -1.1 0.92 18.5% 11 12 22
Victor Oladipo $9,500 42.6 8.1 34.3 2.0 1.24 27.5% 5 23 9
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,900 21.6 0.9 31.0 3.0 0.70 16.6% 9 12 23
Thaddeus Young $6,000 27.5 6.2 32.6 1.8 0.84 15.5% 9 22 2
Myles Turner $6,100 29.5 -4.0 28.9 2.5 1.02 17.2% 17 12 5
Domantas Sabonis $4,000 24.4 -7.1 24.4 -4.0 1.00 18.9% N/A N/A N/A
Cory Joseph $3,600 19.1 -2.2 27.0 -3.2 0.71 14.9% N/A N/A N/A
Lance Stephenson $3,500 20.2 -5.9 22.4 -2.6 0.90 20.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Glenn Robinson (DK Showdown), Lance Stephenson, Victor Oladipo (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic (FD)


Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Cleveland Cavaliers
washingtonnba Vegas Total 220.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Implied Team Total 107.3 Implied Team Total 112.8
Pace Projection +/- 0.4 Pace Projection +/- -0.7
Projected Starters John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Projected Starters George Hill Rodney Hood LeBron James Jeff Green Kevin Love
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 23 20 29 18 20 DvP 11 15 15 4 6
DRPM Rat. 26 29 25 16 19 DRPM Rat. 12 14 2 20 9

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

None

Washington enters tonights game against Cleveland having clinched a playoff spot. They are playing merely for playoff positioning right now. They can potentially move up as high as #6 which would have them facing off against the team they are facing tonight.

John Wall will be playing his second game back from an injury. He was able to log 33 minutes last game, but it was ineffective as he didn’t top 30 fantasy points. I expect a much better outing tonight against a Cavaliers defense that is 23rd in PG DvP and plays at the 4th fastest pace on the slate. At just $8,200 on DraftKings, he’s an elite option for me there and is still viable on FanDuel where his price is a bit more expensive at $8,700.

Markieff Morris is a fringe play on both sites for me, but doesn’t quite make the cut. I like both Otto Porter and Bradley Beal on DraftKings more than I do on FanDuel and they are secondary options for me there. You could do worse then utilize Marcin Gortat as a punt option at the center position at FanDuel – he’s just $3,800 there and is usually good for 20 minutes and close to 20 fantasy points. No one else on the Wizards is a viable option tonight.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.8 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
John Wall $8,700 $8,200 $15,100 40.9 -9.7 34.2 -1.3 1.20 28.8% 20 23 26
Bradley Beal $7,800 $7,300 $13,700 36.9 -5.7 36.1 -4.5 1.02 25.8% 14 20 29
Otto Porter $7,000 $6,100 $11,800 30.6 -3.3 31.7 -5.3 0.96 17.4% 28 29 25
Markieff Morris $5,800 $5,700 $11,200 23.3 -1.2 27.1 -3.1 0.86 16.5% 26 18 16
Marcin Gortat $3,800 $4,700 $8,700 22.9 0.1 25.2 -1.9 0.91 14.0% 11 20 19
Kelly Oubre $4,700 $4,900 $9,700 21.9 0.1 27.5 -0.1 0.80 17.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall (DK)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD), Otto Porter (DK), Bradley Beal (DK)


Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Out)

The Cavaliers are 48-30 and currently the #3 seed, but they are tied with Philadelphia with that record and could drop to #4 with a loss and Philly win. They are also just two games up on the Pacers, so they can’t afford to take it easy. George Hill was thought to return tonight, but he’s been ruled out already which means we can all chase Jose Calderon last game if we desire torture and punishment.

Any analysis of the Cavaliers almost always starts with LeBron who should be good for 35+ minutes of playing time and 50+ fantasy points. The question is what kind of upside is he going to give you at a $11K+ price tag. The Wizards are middle of the pack against SF’s at 15th in DvP, but they are 2nd in DRPM against the position. I like Giannis as a better option among the top end guys today, so I’m going to make LeBron a secondary option tonight.

Now what do we do with Jose Calderon. he scored 37 fantasy points last game in 26 minutes. Prior to that he hadn’t topped 17 fantasy points in his prior four games. I think that’s the more likely occurrence tonight and I have no interest in self-inflicted pain.

Kevin Love is a better bet for fantasy success. He’s coming off two straight games of 34+ fantasy points and is affordably priced in the mid $7K range on both sites. The Wizards are good at defending opposing bigs, however ,making him just a secondary option for me.

Rodney Hood and Jeff Green are cheap on FanDuel and are viable value options there. The rest of the minutes should go to the likes of Kyle Korver, Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance, Jordan Clarkson, and J.R. Smith and none of those will see enough run to be viable DFS options. A player resting would help the value of one of those five immensely, but barring that I think they are avoidable options.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
George Hill $4,000 $4,700 $9,000 20.1 -7.2 27.4 0.2 0.74 15.5% 9 11 12
Rodney Hood $4,200 $4,700 $9,000 22.2 -1.0 27.2 -0.4 0.81 21.5% 10 15 14
LeBron James $11,700 $11,600 $22,300 54.2 -6.1 37.1 1.4 1.46 29.9% 12 15 2
Jeff Green $3,700 $4,300 $8,400 18.0 -0.9 23.2 2.7 0.78 17.0% 21 4 20
Kevin Love $7,400 $7,600 $13,700 33.1 -8.8 27.8 -3.6 1.19 22.1% 10 6 9
Jordan Clarkson $4,300 $5,000 $9,600 22.6 -4.8 23.6 0.2 0.96 25.1% N/A N/A N/A
Larry Nance $4,700 $4,600 $9,500 24.3 -3.4 22.0 -3.9 1.11 14.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Jeff Green (FD), Rodney Hood (FD)


Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Houston Rockets
portlandnba Vegas Total houstonnba Vegas Total
Vegas Spread Vegas Spread
Implied Team Total Implied Team Total
Pace Projection +/- 0.3 Pace Projection +/- -0.7
Projected Starters Shabazz Napier C.J. McCollum Evan Turner Al-Farouq Aminu Jusuf Nurkic Projected Starters Chris Paul James Harden Trevor Ariza P.J. Tucker Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 13 10 6 19 DvP 1 8 17 12 5
DRPM Rat. 2 14 13 10 3 DRPM Rat. 8 24 19 4 1

Portland Trail Blazers

Notable Injuries

Damian Lillard (Doubtful)

Portland is 48-30 and the current #3 seed with a comfortable three game lead on the #4 seed. Damian Lillard has a minor ankle injury that the team doesn’t want to injure further heading into the playoffs and appears unlikely to play tonight.

Which of course means we need to look at two players. Shabazz Napier always benefits from the absence of Lillard, but he’s far from a lock as his 27 minute outing last time Lillard was out would prove. He put up under 15 fantasy points in that outing. DraftKings took the initiative and jacked up Napier’s price to $5,300. I think that price jump and performance from the last game will drive his ownership down. Add in a matchup against the elite defense of Chris Paul and he could see sub 10% ownership. I say this is a good thing as if we take a closer look at Napier when he plays more than 27 minutes (the number he played last game), we’ll see the following numbers this season:

  1. of games: 13
    Avg minutes: 32.65
    Avg points: 16.08
    Avg rebounds: 4.15
    Avg assists: 4.08
    Avg steals: 1.92
    Avg DK fantasy points: 31.96

Do I expect Napier to top 27 minutes tonight. Why yes I do. In fact, if Portland can somehow manage to keep this game close it’s possible he tops 35. A 30 fantasy point outing seems like a realistic outcome and at $5,300 that makes him a fringe elite option for me. I’ll keep him as a secondary just because of the Chris Paul factor. On FanDuel, he’s a absolute lock at $3,600.

The other player is of course C.J. McCollum who put up 55 fantasy points in 37 minutes the last time Damian Lillard missed a game for the birth of his child. A simple no Lillard, no Harkless CourtiQ query tells us that McCollum has a 33.0% usage rate with those two off the court which is a +5.6% usage bump over his normal usage. On a smaller six game slate and priced under $7.5K on both sites, that’s enough to make him an elite option for me.

Jusuf Nurkic is a secondary option on DraftKings where his price remains affordably at $6,600 and Pat Connaughton should see an increased role tonight and at $3,300 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, he’s a viable punt option on both sites. I have no interest in the Portland players like Aminu or Turner and will limit my exposure to those four.

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Shabazz Napier $3,600 $5,300 $10,900 17.2 -2.8 20.8 0.4 0.83 18.2% 4 7 2
C.J. McCollum $7,200 $7,500 $13,600 33.8 1.9 36.1 1.0 0.94 24.7% 16 13 14
Evan Turner $3,800 $4,100 $7,900 16.7 1.6 25.5 3.6 0.66 15.0% 17 10 13
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,400 $5,600 $11,300 24.5 2.4 30.0 -0.2 0.82 13.3% 4 6 10
Jusuf Nurkic $7,500 $6,600 $11,900 31.9 7.7 26.2 1.4 1.22 22.6% 15 19 3
Zach Collins $3,600 $3,600 $6,700 11.4 3.8 15.8 3.8 0.72 13.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Shabazz Napier (FD), C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays – Shabazz Napier (DK), Jusuf Nurkic (DK), Pat Connaughton


Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Ryan Anderson (Out)

The Rockets have the best record in the league and have had the top seed clinched for quite some time, but they continue roll their normal rotation with no signs of slowing down other than occasionally resting a player here or there like they did Trevor Ariza the other night.

I do expect them to curtail the starter’s playing time though and don’t see anyone getting over 35 minutes of playing time. James Harden led all players on the Rockets last game out with 34 minutes, Chris Paul had 33 minutes, and no other player had more than 29 minutes.

Harden and Paul are always viable GPP options, even when not seeing 35+ minutes, but the Trail Blazers have been a efficient defensive team this season and without Damian Lillard playing there is a chance they blow out the Trail Blazers and their playing time is limited even more. As such, they are merely secondary options for me tonight.

Clint Capela is affordable on DraftKings and a secondary option there, but outside of that the production and minutes should be spread out too much for anyone else to be viable. The one player I might take a flyer on is Gerald Green who could see a few extra minutes if the game turns into a blowout.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Chris Paul $7,600 $8,000 $14,300 40.8 -10.7 31.9 -1.7 1.28 25.6% 1 1 8
James Harden $11,000 $11,400 $22,000 53.6 0.7 35.5 -0.9 1.51 34.0% 13 8 24
Trevor Ariza $4,800 $4,800 $9,300 24.0 2.2 34.0 -4.6 0.71 13.4% 13 17 19
P.J. Tucker $4,100 $4,200 $8,700 16.9 2.7 27.8 1.8 0.61 9.2% 15 12 4
Clint Capela $7,300 $6,400 $12,400 35.1 -0.7 27.5 1.5 1.28 16.7% 4 5 1
Eric Gordon $5,000 $5,400 $10,200 25.6 2.0 31.3 -3.0 0.82 21.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela (DK)


Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Milwaukee Bucks
brooklynnba Vegas Total 220.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Implied Team Total 106.0 Implied Team Total 114.5
Pace Projection +/- -1.2 Pace Projection +/- 1.4
Projected Starters D’Angelo Russell Allen Crabbe Joe Harris Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Jarrett Allen Projected Starters Eric Bledsoe Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo John Henson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 3 10 5 13 28 DvP 28 7 14 27 30
DRPM Rat. 12 26 26 3 7 DRPM Rat. 29 21 27 14 26

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

DeMarre Carroll (Out)

The Nets are 25-53 with nothing to playoff for other than increasing another teams odds in the draft lottery. With DeMarre Carroll out, they’ll likely run with a 10 man rotation with most of the players seeing between 20-30 minutes. Two games ago, they had eight players see between 18-31 minutes. Their last game, they had 11 players see between 16 and 33 minutes in what was a blowout loss to the 76ers. This will also likely be a blowout loss as the Nets are the biggest underdogs on the slate, so expect more of the same.

Because of the limited opportunities, it’s hard to lock anyone in as a top play from the Nets despite playing at the 3rd fastest pace of the slate. Prior to last game, Joe Harris had played at least 27 minutes in four straight games and scored more than 22 fantasy points in three of those games. At just $3,900 on FanDuel, he’s an elite value option. He’s also viable on DraftKings at $4,400.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Caris LeVert are the two most consistent sources of minutes and production for the Nets and are secondary options. Jarrett Allen is only $4,500 on DraftKings and gets a matchup against a Milwaukee team that is 28th in DvP against centers. D’Angelo Russell is too expensive and Allen Crabbe and Spencer Dinwiddie have extremely volatile roles that preclude them from being core DFS options.

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.4 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $6,800 $6,500 $12,200 28.6 -4.1 25.5 -3.6 1.12 28.7% 9 3 12
Allen Crabbe $4,200 $4,600 $9,100 21.8 -5.3 29.4 -1.2 0.74 17.0% 14 10 26
Joe Harris $3,900 $4,400 $8,700 17.5 6.1 25.2 1.0 0.69 15.1% 15 5 26
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $6,600 $6,200 $13,100 29.3 2.1 28.3 2.2 1.03 20.6% 3 13 3
Jarrett Allen $5,000 $4,500 $8,600 18.9 2.8 19.7 4.0 0.96 13.7% 29 28 7
Caris LeVert $5,400 $5,500 $11,200 24.9 3.2 26.2 1.7 0.95 21.3% N/A N/A N/A
Spencer Dinwiddie $4,700 $4,900 $10,000 28.3 -7.1 28.8 -4.0 0.98 22.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Joe Harris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Joe Harris (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen (DK)


Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

None

The Bucks are 42-36 and are securely in the playoffs just 1/2 a game behind the current #6 seed. We know where there minutes are going to go as six players routinely get the bulk of the playing time for the team.

Khris Middleton has played no less than 36 minutes the last five games, Giannis Antetokounmpo no less than 33, and Eric Bledsoe no less than 31. John Henson has played at least 25 minutes in the last four games he has played and Tony Snell had played 27+ three straight games prior to just playing 17 last game out. The last of that group of six is Jabari Parker who has played at least 25+ the last four games including 30+ the last two games out.

Parker continues to remain under priced on DraftKings at $4,900 and is an elite option there. At $5,500 on FanDuel, he’s not quite as good a play but is still viable. Giannis hasn’t put up the monster game of late but he’s been extremely safe and productive with three of his last five games coming in at 54 or more fantasy points. He gets a nice matchup against a Nets team that is 27th in PF DvP and is a secondary option for me tonight. Khris Middleton is right at the borderline of being a secondary option but his recent form has me putting him in play as he’s scored 48+ fantasy points in two of his last three.

In fact, outside of the woefully inefficient Tony Snell I like all the Bucks that receive consistent playing time as viable DFS options tonight. John Henson is borderline elite at just $5,000 on DraftKings facing a 30th ranked in DvP center defense but he’s only played 28, 27, and 25 minutes his last three games and that’s not enough playing time to warrant an elite tag. Eric Bledsoe should be able to bounce back from the dud he put up last game against a Nets team that is 28th in PG DvP.

So yea, play the Bucks… either by themselves or as part of a team stack. They have the second highest team total of the slate for a good reason.

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 106.5 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.5 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 8.0 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (7 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,200 $7,900 $14,800 34.5 7.9 31.6 4.0 1.09 23.6% 29 28 29
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,100 $6,000 13.2 -4.5 27.5 -4.9 0.48 9.7% 4 7 21
Khris Middleton $8,000 $8,100 $15,400 35.4 5.9 36.6 1.8 0.97 22.1% 5 14 27
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,500 $11,100 $19,100 51.8 -0.9 37.0 0.2 1.40 28.0% 29 27 14
John Henson $5,600 $5,000 $9,600 24.3 2.1 26.0 2.7 0.94 12.8% 29 30 26
Jabari Parker $5,500 $4,900 $9,700 22.0 5.9 23.0 4.8 0.96 20.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jabari Parker (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker (FD), Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, John Henson, Eric Bledsoe


Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Utah Jazz
laclippersnba Vegas Total 211.5 utahnba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Implied Team Total 102.3 Implied Team Total 109.3
Pace Projection +/- -1.9 Pace Projection +/- 1.6
Projected Starters Austin Rivers Tyrone Wallace C.J. Williams Tobias Harris DeAndre Jordan Projected Starters Ricky Rubio Donovan Mitchell Joe Ingles Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 10 1 3 3 13 DvP 15 29 28 19 24
DRPM Rat. 3 6 7 12 1 DRPM Rat. 24 2 15 18 8

Los Angeles Clippers

Notable Injuries

Danilo Gallinari (Out)

The Clippers are in a must-win situation as they are two games out of the playoffs and likely need to win every game and get some help along the way. Unfortunately for them, they have the unenviable task of going to Utah to face the defensive-minded Jazz. They have the lowest total of the slate as Utah is top 3 in DvP against three different positions and 10th and 13th at the other two positions (but top three in DRPM at those two positions). The Jazz are also the slowest paced team on the slate.

That said, there are still a couple of places we can look to for our DFS rosters, especially with the discounted prices the Clippers players are getting for this matchup. Austin Rivers leads the way at just $5,000 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel. He’s played at least 30 minutes the last five games and has scored 28 or more fantasy points in three of those games. He’s played 39 and 37 minutes the last two games and will likely see close to that again tonight in this must-win game for the team.

Lou Williams is the biggest beneficiary of the discounted prices and with Danilo Gallinari out for the second straight game, will continue to see a ton of minutes. He’s a secondary option on both sites at his price.

Tobias Harris, DeAndre Jordan, Ty Wallace, and Montrezl Harrell are the other four Clippers that get substantial playing time, but the matchup removes them from consideration for me tonight. Harrell is the one I’d consider most of that group as he’s put up 25+ fantasy points his last two games and is under $4.5K on both sites. He should be able to hit five times his salary, but his upside is limited because of his minutes being limited (he hasn’t played more than 26 minutes his last five games).

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -7.1 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (25 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Austin Rivers $5,300 $5,000 $9,600 26.7 0.1 33.9 0.6 0.79 19.5% 8 10 3
Tyrone Wallace $4,700 $4,500 $8,500 20.4 -0.9 28.1 2.1 0.73 14.9% 6 1 6
C.J. Williams $3,500 $3,000 $6,100 11.5 -7.8 18.4 -9.7 0.63 12.2% 4 3 7
Tobias Harris $7,000 $6,700 $12,500 31.5 4.8 33.5 1.5 0.94 21.1% 1 3 12
DeAndre Jordan $7,000 $7,200 $13,800 35.3 -4.0 31.8 -3.4 1.11 12.6% 3 13 1
Lou Williams $6,600 $6,600 $12,300 34.7 -7.7 32.8 0.4 1.06 27.1% N/A N/A N/A
Wesley Johnson $3,500 $3,200 $6,700 15.2 -4.9 20.3 -7.3 0.75 11.2% N/A N/A N/A
Montrezl Harrell $4,400 $4,200 $8,500 19.4 0.1 16.5 4.2 1.17 20.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Rivers

Secondary Plays – Lou Williams


Utah Jazz

Notable Injuries

None

This is a big game for the Jazz as they are currently the #4 seed in the Western Conference, but that position is very precarious. They are 1/2 game ahead of the #5 seed and just 1 game up on the #8 seed. A three or four game losing streak and they could be out of the playoffs completely. Needless to say, they are plenty motivated to win this game.

The Jazz routinely run a nine-man rotation with Dante Exum, Royce O’Neale, and Jonas Jerebko providing minimal 10-20 minute contributions each game. The bulk of the playing time will go to Derrick Favors, Joe Ingles, Rudy Gobert, Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, and Jae Crowder. This is a pace up game for the Jazz with the Clippers the 2nd-fastest paced team on the slate. The Clippers are also one of the worst defensive teams on the slate and they are bottom three in both SG and SF DvP.

The Jazz are priced down on DraftKings and are much more in play there. On FanDuel, only Donovan Mitchell at $7,700 is a option for me. The same can not be said on DraftKings, where all six are at least a secondary option. Rudy Gobert at just $7,400 is drastically underpriced and is an elite option against a Clippers defense that is 24th in center DvP. Gobert has topped 48 fantasy points in two of his last five games and I can see him approaching that number tonight. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles will both benefit from the plus DvP matchups at SG and SF and are also elite, while Rubio, Favors, and Crowder are secondary options.

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.6 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (6 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $7,900 $7,000 $14,400 29.4 8.3 29.9 1.0 0.98 21.6% 15 15 24
Donovan Mitchell $7,700 $7,100 $13,300 32.8 1.1 33.5 1.7 0.98 25.7% 27 29 2
Joe Ingles $6,500 $5,900 $11,200 25.6 5.9 31.6 1.4 0.81 15.4% 26 28 15
Derrick Favors $5,900 $5,100 $10,000 26.7 -2.0 28.0 0.2 0.95 16.2% 14 19 18
Rudy Gobert $9,000 $7,400 $14,400 36.3 0.8 32.7 1.0 1.11 14.1% 19 24 8
Jae Crowder $4,700 $4,300 $8,500 18.0 3.0 26.4 0.1 0.68 15.1% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert (DK), Joe Ingles (DK), Donovan Mitchell (DK)

Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell (FD), Jae Crowder (DK), Ricky Rubio (DK), Derrick Favors (DK)


Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

thehazyone
Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix