NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.5 |  | Vegas Total | 202.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.5 | Implied Team Total | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Luke Kennard | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 28 | 21 | 30 | 19 | DvP | 2 | 17 | 30 | 12 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 26 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 3 | |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are extremely short-handed at the moment, as they will be without three key pieces in their rotation. Luckily, that opens up value opportunities in DFS. They draw one of the best possible matchups, as they take on a Magic team that is ranked sixth in pace of play and 28th in points allowed per game. The Pistons have been involved in far too many blowouts recently, but that isn’t a big concern with the spread for this game set at only 4.5 points. Despite missing two starts, Detroit has an implied total of 103.5 points.
Reggie Jackson has a Grade 3 ankle sprain and is going to miss the next six to eight weeks. This is now Ish Smith’s world and we are just living in it. Smith has always been a DFS darling when given big minutes and there’s no reason to start fading him now. The only concern on FanDuel is that Terry Rozier and Tyus Jones are potentially even better values and we can only roster two point guards. Smith is an elite play in all formats, but I may end up using Rozier and Jones in cash games given the fact that they are both priced under $4,000 on FanDuel.
Langston Galloway should be thrust into a bigger role off the bench, but I’m not sure we need to play him with all of the value available tonight. The same can be said for Reggie Bullock, Luke Kennard, and Stanley Johnson. If we run CourtIQ with Bradley and Jackson off the floor, we can see that Tobias Harris gets a 3.5% usage boost and a 0.22 FP/min boost. Those are noteworthy enough increases that I’m going to list Harris as an elite play. It doesn’t hurt that he is facing his former team. Everyone loves to play the revenge narrative.
Andre Drummond was the garbage time hero the other night against the Pacers. His minutes have been volatile due to the number of blowouts Detroit has been in, but hopefully that won’t be an issue tonight. Bismack Biyombo is known as a good defender, but his DRPM this season suggests otherwise. I love targeting Drummond when his opponent spends most of his time around the rim (which Biyombo does) because that leads to more rebounding opportunities. This is a potential 20-point, 20-rebound spot for Drummond.
Notable Injuries
Jon Leuer (Out)
Reggie Jackson (Out)
Avery Bradley (Out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (5 of 10)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $5,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 18.1 | 1.7 | 20.1 | 2.3 | 0.90 | 24.4% | 26 | 30 | 26 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 19.3 | 9.2 | 0.61 | 11.2% | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| Luke Kennard | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 11.1 | -1.6 | 16.4 | -1.0 | 0.68 | 16.0% | 29 | 21 | 30 |
| Tobias Harris | $7,400 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 28.7 | 2.7 | 32.7 | -2.0 | 0.88 | 20.6% | 24 | 30 | 28 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,500 | $9,400 | $17,500 | 42.4 | -4.1 | 32.4 | -5.0 | 1.31 | 18.2% | 23 | 19 | 21 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $4,200 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 13.5 | 2.7 | 19.6 | 6.9 | 0.69 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Langston Galloway | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 14.6 | 4.1 | 0.79 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ish Smith, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – None
Orlando Magic
The Magic have also been hit hard by the injury bug. They have played a number of games this season without Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic. Fournier and Gordon are both questionable for tonight’s contest, but Vucevic is going to miss the next six to eight weeks. While a matchup against the Pistons doesn’t look great on paper, this game has sneaky shootout potential. Both teams are short-handed and both are missing some of their best defenders. The Magic’s implied total of 99 points doesn’t seem like much, but it looks better when you consider how many pieces they are missing offensively.
Elfrid Payton is one of the most inconsistent players in NBA DFS. His minutes are volatile and you never quite know which Elf is going to show up. While he might be a risky cash game target, he’s on my short list of potential tournament plays at point guard. With Nikola Vucevic off the floor this season, Payton is averaging 1.25 FP/min, which equates to nearly 45 fantasy points per 36 minutes. He draws a favorable matchup against Ish Smith and he will need to be aggressive from the start.
We have to take a wait and see approach with Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon. If they are active, I will be avoiding them in cash games. If they are ruled out, Jonathon Simmons and Mario Hezonja would become strong plays at their respective positions. Bismack Biyombo played 29 minutes in his first start at center and scored 31 fantasy points against the Heat. They will need his size and defense on the floor against Andre Drummond, so don’t be surprised if Biyombo plays north of 30 minutes tonight. He offers a high floor at his price point, especially on DraftKings ($4,600).
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Evan Fournier (Questionable)
Aaron Gordon (Questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 104.9 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.9 (8 of 10)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,400 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 28.9 | 13.0 | 28.8 | 3.2 | 1.00 | 20.9% | 15 | 2 | 20 |
| Evan Fournier | $5,800 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 28.4 | -13.3 | 32.4 | -2.6 | 0.88 | 20.7% | 1 | 17 | 13 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,800 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 23.1 | -4.2 | 28.8 | 1.3 | 0.80 | 20.8% | 28 | 30 | 15 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,400 | $7,600 | $14,700 | 35.0 | 33.3 | 1.05 | 19.2% | 11 | 12 | 28 | ||
| Bismack Biyombo | $5,500 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 12.7 | 2.8 | 15.7 | 4.5 | 0.81 | 10.5% | 15 | 14 | 3 |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 21.4 | 3.1 | 0.75 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 0.77 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Bismack Biyombo (DK)
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Bismack Biyombo (FD)
Note: Add Jonathon Simmons and Mario Hezonja as secondary plays if Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon are ruled out.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyus Jones | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 26 | DvP | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 19 | 23 | 27 | 3 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 28 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves picked up a win in overtime last night, but it didn’t come without a price. Jeff Teague sprained his left knee and doesn’t have a timetable set for his return. His absence is going to open up one of the chalkiest plays of the year, but we will get there in a second. Tonight’s matchup against the Bucks is a mediocre one. While Milwaukee plays at a slow pace, they are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebounding differential. The Wolves are only projected to score 104.3 points, which may have something to do with the fact that they are playing on the road and in back-to-back games.
Tyus Jones has made three starts this season and he has made the most of them, averaging 40 minutes, 12 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 steals. He is close to min-salary across the industry and in my opinion, a must play in this slate. There is almost always a case to be made to fade the extreme chalk in large-field tournaments, but I don’t see how Jones doesn’t have 6x type of production at a bare minimum. Andrew Wiggins sees a 3% usage bump and a 0.09 FP/min bump with Teague off the floor, which puts him on my radar at shooting guard.
If you didn’t see the highlights of last night’s game, I highly recommend it. Preferably, look for the clip where Jimmy Butler nails the jumper and then shouts expletives at the Nuggets’ players. He took over that game and should play close to 40 minutes again tonight. Butler is an elite play in all formats and should be the focal point of the Wolves’ offense. Taj Gibson is always a decent power forward target on FanDuel, but he’s my fifth favorite Wolves’ player in this game, so I doubt I will have any exposure.
Karl-Anthony Towns has now scored at least 48 fantasy points in seven straight games against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. His price is still appealing on DraftKings ($8,900) and he draws a much better matchup tonight. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked 30th in efficiency against centers and 27th in rebounding differential. It feels strange stacking the Wolves in the second half of a back-to-back, but there are four players that I am potentially looking at from Minnesota.
Notable Injuries
Jeff Teague (Out)
Aaron Brooks (Doubtful)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 13.2 | -0.1 | 16.6 | -1.5 | 0.79 | 12.3% | 5 | 10 | 19 |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,900 | $7,700 | $14,400 | 39.5 | 6.0 | 37.4 | 1.6 | 1.06 | 23.5% | 11 | 6 | 23 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $5,400 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 28.7 | -2.8 | 36.6 | -1.1 | 0.78 | 20.9% | 16 | 4 | 27 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,500 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 26.9 | 1.9 | 33.6 | 1.4 | 0.80 | 12.7% | 7 | 13 | 3 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,000 | $8,900 | $18,500 | 42.5 | 3.8 | 35.8 | 0.6 | 1.19 | 19.9% | 30 | 26 | 3 |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,800 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 18.0 | 2.2 | 0.91 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 15.3 | 6.2 | 18.5 | 5.3 | 0.82 | 22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyus Jones, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)
Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are looking to avoid their third loss in a row, as they host the Wolves tonight in Milwaukee. This is one of the best matchups on the schedule and it doesn’t hurt that the Wolves will be playing short-handed and on tired legs. On the season, Minnesota is ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 25th in rebounding differential. The Bucks currently have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the second highest overall and three points above their season average.
Eric Bledsoe has been in excellent form over his last four games, averaging 32 minutes and 40 fantasy points. While the Wolves haven’t been great against point guards, Tyus Jones is actually a much better defender than Jeff Teague. With all of the great plays at his position, Bledsoe is an easy fade in all formats. Khris Middleton is typically lower owned than he should be for a player that averages 37 minutes and 35 fantasy points per game. He has a high floor and a high ceiling and is firmly in the mix at shooting guard.
This is speculation on my part, but Jimmy Butler typically defends the best player on the opposing team. If that’s the case, Giannis Antetokounmpo will draw a difficult individual matchup. Butler is one of the few defenders in basketball that I hesitate to target players against. Antetokounmpo has shown that he’s matchup-proof though, and the spot for the Bucks as a whole is solid. I have him ranked behind James Harden in my superstar rankings, but I’m not going to rule out the possibility of playing both. With all of the value available tonight, that might be the strategy a lot of people take.
Notable Injuries
None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (4 of 10)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,600 | $7,100 | $15,000 | 33.8 | 6.8 | 31.4 | 0.8 | 1.08 | 24.9% | 16 | 13 | 4 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 15.8 | -0.4 | 31.1 | -3.6 | 0.51 | 9.5% | 25 | 11 | 2 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $7,500 | $13,300 | 35.3 | 0.2 | 37.3 | 2.2 | 0.95 | 22.7% | 13 | 9 | 27 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,900 | $10,900 | $21,000 | 55.7 | -6.5 | 37.9 | -0.1 | 1.47 | 28.9% | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| John Henson | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.7 | 1.5 | 23.8 | 0.4 | 0.95 | 12.7% | 27 | 22 | 28 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,500 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.9 | 2.9 | 30.5 | 0.3 | 0.78 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – None
Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.5 |  | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | James Harden | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Nene Hilario | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Marcus Smart | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 | DvP | 9 | 20 | 27 | 4 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 10 | 27 | 7 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets couldn’t quite pick up a win on Christmas, but they are still tied with the Warriors for the fewest losses in the association. Their matchup against the Celtics does not look appealing on paper, but this offense is far too good to be slowed down. Even without two of their starters, they are still projected to score 109 points, which is easily the highest implied total on the board. The fact that the game features a 1.5-point spread should lead to a full complement of minutes for the starters.
James Harden is my favorite superstar to pay up for tonight and he’s really a tough fade in cash games and tournaments. With all of the value, it’s very easy to afford Harden. Even if he only ends up with 50 fantasy points, he could still be a solid play because we might need those raw points in a slate like this. The elite value plays should easily exceed their needed production. Eric Gordon is an excellent tournament play with Chris Paul out. Over his last four games, Gordon is averaging 37 minutes and 31 fantasy points.
If you projected minutes for every player on the slate tonight, Trevor Ariza would be at the top of the list. With all of the injuries to Houston, he is playing all of the minutes he can handle. Over his last four games, he is averaging 43 minutes and 30 fantasy points. I’m not worried about the matchup, as 40+ minutes at a price under $5,500 is too good of a deal to pass up. P.J. Tucker price has come up, but we can also expect minutes in the low to mid-30s from him. He’s one of those intriguing sub-10% ownership type of plays in tournaments.
Ryan Anderson has not shot the ball well at home over the last two seasons, so we can give him a small bump with this game being played in Boston. Anderson is only $4,200 on FanDuel and should see a full complement of minutes in what should be a competitive game throughout. Nene Hilario has underwhelmed in his last few starts, but does have 30 fantasy point type of upside and he’s still priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Chris Paul (Out)
Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)
Clint Capela (Out)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 115.1 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -6.1 (9 of 10)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $12,500 | $11,400 | $21,600 | 54.9 | 8.1 | 36.3 | 4.0 | 1.51 | 34.0% | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,800 | $5,800 | $13,000 | 25.7 | 5.3 | 32.0 | 5.1 | 0.80 | 22.2% | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 25.0 | 5.2 | 35.9 | 7.1 | 0.70 | 12.3% | 1 | 10 | 3 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,200 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 20.0 | -2.2 | 28.3 | -1.0 | 0.71 | 13.2% | 16 | 8 | 2 |
| Nene Hilario | $3,500 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 14.4 | -2.6 | 15.1 | 3.9 | 0.95 | 16.4% | 12 | 9 | 1 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 18.4 | 1.5 | 27.8 | 4.8 | 0.66 | 8.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon (GPP), Ryan Anderson (FD)
Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (Cash), Ryan Anderson (DK), P.J. Tucker (GPP), Nene Hilario (GPP)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Hornets last night. While the Rockets have been stingy defensively (ninth in efficiency), they are missing two of their best defenders in Chris Paul and Clint Capela. Houston has also picked up their pace of play recently, which could lead to a few extra possessions for the Celtics. Boston has an implied total of 107.5 points, which is the third highest overall and four points above their season average.
With everyone paying down at point guard, Kyrie Irving could end up being less than 15% owned on FanDuel. That’s crazy to think about considering the fact that the Celtics have a high implied total and that he will be defended by the likes of Eric Gordon and James Harden. For cash games, Irving is a better play on DraftKings (where you can play quite a few point guards). Jaylen Brown has been ruled out of tonight’s game, so Marcus Smart will draw another start at shooting guard. As I mentioned yesterday, Smart hates to be the chalk and once again he failed in a good spot. I ended up fading him last night, but will be playing him tonight. He has the potential to play 35+ minutes in a pace-up game against Houston. His ownership will be down thanks to recency bias.
Terry Rozier played 26 minutes and scored 36 fantasy points last night against the Hornets. With Brown out again tonight, he should be locked into a 26-28 minute role off the bench. He’s an elite play on FanDuel ($3,800), but a tad expensive on DraftKings ($4,300). Jayson Tatum is averaging 35 minutes over his last four games and draws a nice matchup against the Rockets. He’s firmly in play on FanDuel where we are forced to roster two power forwards. Al Horford is my favorite center to target on FanDuel and he doesn’t even crack my top five favorite centers on DraftKings. With Clint Capela out, Horford will draw favorable matchups against Ryan Anderson and Nene Hilario.
Notable Injuries
Jaylen Brown (Out)
Marcus Morris (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,600 | $8,000 | $15,600 | 37.9 | 0.3 | 32.2 | 0.3 | 1.18 | 29.9% | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 23.6 | -1.8 | 30.7 | 0.5 | 0.77 | 17.9% | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 26.7 | 0.7 | 30.9 | 3.7 | 0.86 | 15.5% | 25 | 27 | 10 |
| Al Horford | $7,100 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 34.1 | -0.9 | 32.6 | 0.0 | 1.05 | 17.9% | 5 | 4 | 27 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 14.9 | 0.2 | 18.3 | -0.3 | 0.82 | 14.3% | 14 | 21 | 7 |
| Terry Rozier | $3,800 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 19.8 | 3.6 | 23.4 | 3.4 | 0.85 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Morris | $4,000 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 21.6 | -13.3 | 23.7 | -7.9 | 0.91 | 20.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK), Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum (FD), Terry Rozier (FD), Al Horford (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD), Jayson Tatum (DK), Terry Rozier (DK)
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET
| New York Knicks | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 93.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 4 | DvP | 29 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 19 | 22 | 17 | 26 | |
New York Knicks
The first three games of the slate are where most of my player exposure is going to come from. Call me crazy, but I don’t love the Knicks in the second half of a back-to-back on the road against the Spurs. San Antonio plays at the third slowest pace and are ranked inside the top five in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Knicks have an implied total of 93.8 points, which is the lowest on the board and nearly ten points below their season average. To make matters worse, we have to factor in a potential blowout with a 12-point spread. I want no part of the Knicks tonight, even though DraftKings dangling the carrot with those cheap price points.
Notable Injuries
None
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 93.8 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -9.8 (10 of 10)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.5 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,700 | $4,300 | $10,200 | 19.9 | 1.3 | 25.9 | -2.8 | 0.77 | 16.8% | 13 | 3 | 11 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,900 | $4,900 | $10,200 | 25.1 | 3.9 | 32.2 | 0.6 | 0.78 | 16.7% | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 18.8 | 7.9 | 0.48 | 10.4% | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,200 | $7,900 | $16,000 | 40.1 | -4.8 | 32.1 | 1.6 | 1.25 | 29.1% | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,800 | $6,900 | $13,000 | 30.2 | 11.1 | 25.9 | 1.7 | 1.17 | 18.5% | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,200 | $3,700 | $8,800 | 15.5 | -1.0 | 20.8 | 4.0 | 0.75 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 16.5 | -0.4 | 1.17 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have won seven of their last ten games and currently sit in third place in the Western Conference standings. As Kevin Garnett once told us, “anything is possible,” but I fully expect the Spurs to steamroll the Knicks. This is similar to last night’s Jazz-Warriors game where Utah was playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Even though the Spurs’ implied total is 4.5 points above their season average, the risk outweighs the potential reward here. We’ve been watching basketball long enough to know that Gregg Popovich is going to get his players as much rest as possible. If this game is in hand, the starters won’t see the floor in the fourth quarter. This game is a complete stay away in my eyes.
Notable Injuries
Kawhi Leonard (Probable)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (1 of 10)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.7 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $4,100 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 18.3 | -0.3 | 20.3 | 4.2 | 0.90 | 22.8% | 29 | 29 | 16 |
| Danny Green | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 21.5 | -6.6 | 27.6 | -4.0 | 0.78 | 14.5% | 4 | 13 | 19 |
| Kawhi Leonard | $7,300 | $6,000 | $13,400 | 24.1 | 2.6 | 19.0 | 4.2 | 1.27 | 26.5% | 21 | 8 | 22 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,500 | $7,800 | $14,300 | 38.4 | -2.4 | 33.5 | 0.8 | 1.15 | 25.6% | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,500 | $6,700 | $13,800 | 28.5 | 14.8 | 25.1 | 5.8 | 1.14 | 18.0% | 2 | 5 | 26 |
| Patty Mills | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.9 | -7.0 | 24.9 | -1.6 | 0.72 | 17.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rudy Gay | $3,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 22.6 | -11.1 | 22.8 | -5.8 | 0.99 | 20.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Anderson | $3,900 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 23.5 | -7.5 | 26.8 | -3.7 | 0.88 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 2 | DvP | 22 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 30 | 1 | 28 | 4 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have been a fun team to watch this season, but they have one of the worst matchups on the schedule. They not only have to face a Blazers’ team that is ranked fourth in points allowed per game, but they have to face them in Portland. The Sixers’ implied total of 102.5 points is the third lowest overall and five points below their season average. Joel Embiid and Robert Covington are both listed as questionable, which only complicates matters.
Embiid is tentatively expected to play, but we’ve seen him get ruled out late a couple of times this season. He may have some tournament appeal on DraftKings ($9,600), but I want no part of him in cash games. The same goes for Covington, who is dealing with a knee injury. Seeing as how we don’t truly know the availability of Embiid and Covington, it’s hard to like anyone from the Sixers. Ben Simmons and Dario Saric would both see a nice boost in their absence, but they are both priced up and they both have difficult matchups.
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid (Questionable)
Robert Covington (Questionable)
Justin Anderson (Probable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (7 of 10)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,000 | $8,700 | $17,000 | 43.0 | -11.2 | 36.3 | -3.4 | 1.18 | 22.9% | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,500 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 25.8 | -1.2 | 33.5 | -9.7 | 0.77 | 18.5% | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| Robert Covington | $6,400 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 30.7 | -2.1 | 32.9 | 1.5 | 0.93 | 16.1% | 16 | 16 | 8 |
| Dario Saric | $6,200 | $6,000 | $13,200 | 25.6 | 4.8 | 30.4 | 3.0 | 0.84 | 17.4% | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,700 | $9,600 | $18,000 | 45.9 | -4.8 | 31.2 | -2.5 | 1.47 | 27.6% | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 20.5 | 0.1 | 23.9 | -1.0 | 0.86 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Richaun Holmes | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 17.0 | 1.2 | 16.6 | 2.5 | 1.02 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (DK GPP), Robert Covington (DK GPP), Ben Simmons, Dario Saric
Portland Trail Blazers
As I mentioned earlier, most of my exposure will come from the first three games on the schedule. This game has more appeal than the Knicks and Spurs, but that’s not saying a whole lot. The Blazers draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked second in pace of play and 25th in points allowed per game. Portland has an implied total of 106 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate and four points above their season average.
Damian Lillard is expected to return after missing two games with a hamstring injury. There have been no reports of him being on a minute restriction, so he should be a full go against a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 22nd in DvP against point guards. Lillard is viable in tournaments, but point guard is loaded with value. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Kyrie Irving as well. C.J. McCollum has the best matchup of the five starters if you want to look his way in tournaments.
Evan Turner is cheap and should play 26-30 minutes in a revenge game, but I’m not sure we need to go there in this slate. He’s fine in tournaments, but far from a core play. Al-Farouq Aminu is my favorite Blazers’ target tonight, although he’s strictly a DraftKings ($4,800). He is averaging 30 minutes and 24 fantasy points over his last four games. Jusuf Nurkic could see a few extra minutes tonight if Joel Embiid plays, but he’s a tournament dart at best given his recent form.
Notable Injuries
Noah Vonleh (Questionable)
Damian Lillard (Probable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (2 of 10)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.4 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $8,800 | $8,400 | $16,500 | 42.2 | -5.5 | 37.1 | -1.2 | 1.14 | 28.8% | 11 | 22 | 1 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,100 | $7,000 | 32.1 | -1.6 | 36.6 | -0.4 | 0.88 | 23.4% | 25 | 25 | 30 | |
| Evan Turner | $4,100 | $3,800 | $8,800 | 17.4 | 0.2 | 26.6 | 1.3 | 0.65 | 14.6% | 15 | 23 | 1 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,500 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.7 | 0.3 | 29.6 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 12.3% | 18 | 21 | 28 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $5,800 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 28.6 | -7.4 | 27.2 | -3.6 | 1.05 | 23.7% | 13 | 25 | 4 |
| Ed Davis | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 16.4 | 2.8 | 18.1 | 4.9 | 0.91 | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Shabazz Napier | $3,800 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 16.7 | 11.9 | 18.5 | 9.5 | 0.90 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |