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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-18 02:16:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Indiana Pacers
torontonba Vegas Total 203.5 indiananba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 99.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Jordan Hill
Opp. Season 11 11 4 13 13 Opp. Season 3 13 7 4 16
Last 3 Weeks 19 1 20 15 17 Last 3 Weeks 2 14 15 4 10

Toronto Raptors

Record: 45-21 — Road: 19-13 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games, but find themselves 2.5 games behind the Cavaliers for first place in the Eastern Conference. They have already started to rest starters (DeMar DeRozan on Tuesday). While they will still try to get up to the one seed, we need to keep our eye out for them resting players moving forward. The Raptors are listed as 2-point underdogs tonight against the Pacers with an implied team total of only 100.8 points.

The Pacers have been stout defensively, ranking ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Raptors are projected to score well below their season scoring average tonight, which doesn’t bode well for their fantasy production. Jonas Valanciunas sat out Tuesday’s game with a hand injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. If he is unable to suit up, Bismack Biyombo would become an excellent value play.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.2 39.0 1.8 38.7 1.5
FPPG (FD) 39.4 44.3 4.9 40.3 0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.6 23.5 0.9 23.1 0.5

Lowry is a candidate to rest tonight, after the Raptors decided to rest DeMar DeRozan on Tuesday night. The Raptors won that game going away though and Lowry only had to log 28 minutes, so my guess is that he will be in the lineup tonight. His matchup against the Pacers is a mediocre one at best, but Lowry has played well in tough matchups all season. He comes into this game in great form, averaging 44.3 fantasy points over his last ten games.

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 36.4 0.2 38.6 2.4
FPPG (FD) 35.5 36.8 1.3 42.2 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.1 26.9 0.9 28.6 2.6

For now, I will consider DeRozan a secondary play. However, if Kyle Lowry does end up getting the night off, that would bump up DeRozan to an elite play – it would also bump Cory Joseph up to an elite play as well. DeRozan has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 42.2 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws a pretty nice matchup against Monta Ellis, as he should be able to score in the post rather easily.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 36-31 — Home: 20-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have lost five of their last ten games and have fallen all the way down to seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight’s game against the Raptors is more important for Indiana than it is for Toronto. The Pacers are 2-point favorites with an implied team total of 102.8 points.

The Raptors have also been very good defensively, ranking eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. We typically don’t love to target games featuring two elite defenses, but there are two plays on the Pacers that stand out in this matchup. Ian Mahimni is not expected to play tonight, which gives a boost to both Myles Turner and Jordan Hill.

Elite Plays

Jordan Hill
jordan-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$3,900
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.4 20.3 -1.1 19.9 -1.5
FPPG (FD) 19.6 18.0 -1.6 16.0 -3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 17.9 1.3 17.9 1.3

I’m not 100% confident in Hill’s ability to put up 25+ fantasy points against a tough Raptors’ frontcourt, but at $3,900 he is one of the best value plays on the board. In ten starts this season, Hill is averaging 27.4 minutes, 10.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.6 blocks/steals per game. At his price point, I would gladly take a similar line from him tonight.

Secondary Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 34.2 -1.1 34.3 -1.0
FPPG (FD) 39.0 40.2 1.2 38.8 -0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 25.1 25.7 0.6 24.8 -0.3

George has been carrying the Pacers on his back since the All-Star break. Over his last ten games, he is averaging over 40 fantasy points per contest. His price has come up across the industry, which should help lower his ownership tonight against the Raptors. I’m not a huge fan of the matchup, but George has upside and should fly under the radar. He is a strong GPP play tonight at home.

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Washington Wizards Philadelphia 76ers
washingtonnba Vegas Total 216.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Sprd -9.0 Vegas Sprd 9.0
Team Proj. 112.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Hollis Thompson Carl Landry Nerlens Noel
Opp. Season 26 18 28 28 30 Opp. Season 15 22 26 6 9
Last 3 Weeks 27 22 19 26 29 Last 3 Weeks 17 11 10 3 6

Washington Wizards

Record: 32-35 — Road: 14-18 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won two games in a row and are only a game and a half behind the Pistons for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back tonight, but luckily they get an easy draw against the Sixers. The Wizards are projected to score 112.5 points, which is the highest team total on the board and 9.4 points above their scoring average.

The Sixers are always one of the best teams to target players against, as they are ranked 26th or worse in all four of the defensive categories above. The fact that the Wizards are only 9-point favorites makes the matchup even more appealing. Give a sizable boost to the Wizards’ offense as a whole. Marcin Gortat is dealing with a back injury that forced him to play limited minutes last night. Keep an eye on his status leading up to tipoff.

Elite Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,400 Salary:$9,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.8 -0.1 36.4 0.5
FPPG (FD) 42.1 45.1 2.9 45.7 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 24.8 26.3 1.5 25.5 0.7

Wall messed around and got a triple-double last night against the Bulls, who are becoming a green light for point guards in DFS. Wall draws an equally juicy matchup tonight against the Sixers, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to his position this season. Wall has a nice track record against Philadelphia and the Wizards are in must-win mode. The only knock on him is that he is getting expensive.

Otto Porter
otto-porter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 28.0 -2.2 32.4 2.2
FPPG (FD) 22.9 19.5 -3.4 23.1 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 13.6 -0.5 13.2 -0.9

Porter has been inconsistent over the last couple of months, but he finally appears to be rounding back into form. Over his last three games, he has scored 35, 27, and 29 fantasy points, while playing at least 32 minutes in each contest. If he sees 30+ minutes tonight against the Sixers, he should easily be able to reach value at his suppressed salary.

Secondary Plays

Brad Beal
bradley-beal-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 27.6 -3.0 27.6 -3.0
FPPG (FD) 26.4 24.5 -1.8 31.5 5.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.9 22.5 0.5 22.5 0.5

I’m always concerned about using Beal in a back-to-back situation, but even if he sees 25 minutes tonight, he has a decent chance at reaching value. Beal is a high-volume scorer that is currently priced about a thousand dollars less than he usually is. With the Wizards treating every game as a must-win, I wouldn’t be surprised if Beal plays close to 30 minutes tonight.

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 9-58 — Home: 6-27 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers have lost nine of their last ten games and own the worst record in the NBA at 9-58. They are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight at home against the Wizards. While they are sizable underdogs, they are still projected to score 103.5 points, which is 6.4 points above their scoring average for the season.

The Wizards have improved defensively over the last month of play, but are still ranked 14th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above on the season. We should consider this a slightly favorable matchup for the Sixers and with all of their injuries, it opens the door for a number of plays tonight in DFS. Robert Covington, Richaun Holmes, and Jahlil Okafor are all out tonight. Jerami Grant will likely join them, as he is dealing with concussion symptoms.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 29.1 0.0 33.1 4.0
FPPG (FD) 27.3 27.6 0.3 32.5 5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 17.3 3.0 18.5 4.1

With Jahlil Okafor, Jerami Grant, and Richaun Holmes out, Noel has become close to a must play over the last few games. His minutes, usage, and fantasy production are up across the board. His ability to post blocks and steals gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. Even though the Wizards have been tough on opposing frontcourts this season, Noel is one of the top plays at power forward tonight.

Ishmael Smith
ish-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 33.6 5.9 33.2 5.5
FPPG (FD) 26.8 31.6 4.8 28.1 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 21.6 -0.4 20.3 -1.7

Smith is back to producing at the level he was when the Sixers traded for him earlier in the season. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 31.6 fantasy points in 33.6 minutes per contest. I always like using Smith in games that are up in pace and he draws a decent matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked 15th against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Carl Landry
carl-landry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$4,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 13.6 19.0 5.4 22.2 8.6
FPPG (FD) 14.2 20.6 6.5 25.0 10.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.7 21.8 1.1 21.3 0.7

I went back and forth on whether or not I should include Landry as an elite play or not, but I eventually decided that his price was just a little too high for my liking. I’m certainly not trying to talk you off of him tonight, but he is only $1,600 cheaper than Noel on FanDuel and he basically caps out at around 25 minutes. Given the fact that he is only $4,200 on DraftKings, I’d rather get my exposure to him there instead of on FanDuel.

Hollis Thompson
hollis-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.56 FP/Min:0.62
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.5 30.8 3.3 34.1 6.6
FPPG (FD) 15.4 18.8 3.4 20.4 5.1
TO-Adj. Usage 13.0 14.4 1.5 12.5 -0.5

Thompson isn’t a flashy play tonight, but he should see around 35 minutes of action against a Wizards’ defense that has struggled to defend wing players this season. He may not have 30 fantasy point type of upside, but he is a safe cash game option with a relatively high floor in this matchup. You can certainly do worse than Thompson if you are in need of some value.

Isaiah Canaan
isaiah-canaan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.67 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.0 29.1 4.1 29.6 4.6
FPPG (FD) 16.7 19.3 2.5 20.9 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 17.3 0.5 17.0 0.2

Canaan has seen a nice spike in minutes with all of the injuries to the Sixers. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29.6 minutes and 20.9 fantasy points per contest. He is still cheap across the industry and he draws a decent matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked 22nd against shooting guards this season.

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Charlotte Hornets Miami Heat
charlottenba Vegas Total 209.5 miaminba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 95.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 3 15 5 6 Opp. Season 12 14 21 23 10
Last 3 Weeks 4 19 14 11 16 Last 3 Weeks 9 4 24 9 7

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 38-29 — Road: 12-19 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets have won eight of their last ten games and are looking more and more likely to be hosting a first round playoff series. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat, who play great defense and slow the pace down. The Hornets are only projected to score 102.5 points, which is the seventh lowest team total on the board.

The Heat have been terrific defensively this season, ranking sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We generally try to avoid targeting players against Miami and since this game is on the road, I plan to do just that. The Hornets still have a relatively high team total, but their players are a bit overpriced for tonight’s matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat

Record: 39-28 — Home: 22-12 — Last 10: 7-3

The Heat have won seven of their last ten games and are currently fighting with a number of teams (including the Hornets) for playoff positioning in the East. Miami is listed as a 4.5-point favorite tonight with their team total set at 107 points. While that may not jump off the page at us, they have the second highest projected point differential at +8.1.

The Hornets have been better defensively than most people realize. They are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency this season. While I don’t think the matchup is one that we need to go out of our way to target, it’s hard to overlook how high the Heat’s team total is tonight. Dwyane Wade is a little too expensive for my liking tonight. If you are paying up at shooting guard, I’d rather target DeMar DeRozan or Khris Middleton.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$8,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.21 FP/Min:1.30
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.9 30.4 1.5 31.0 2.1
FPPG (FD) 34.8 40.7 5.9 38.0 3.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.4 18.0 2.5 18.2 2.8

Whiteside is a borderline elite play tonight, but anytime I hear that a big man has a foot injury, it makes me a little nervous. Whiteside is listed as probable and he should be fine to play tonight, but there is always the chance that he could tweak it and ruin your lineups. For that reason, I will only be using him in tournaments tonight. The upside is certainly there though and he did have a 40 fantasy point outing against Charlotte in early February.

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 34.9 2.0 35.7 2.8
FPPG (FD) 26.4 33.3 6.9 32.2 5.8
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 21.2 3.0 19.8 1.6

Dragic has been a great play on paper over the last month or so, I just always have a hard time finding a spot for him in my lineup. Point guard is always such a stacked position that I always find myself taking another route. The Dragon comes into this game in excellent form though, averaging 33.3 fantasy points over his last ten games.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,300
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 34.0 1.9 35.2 3.1
FPPG (FD) 23.4 31.1 7.7 36.1 12.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 17.2 2.3 17.9 3.0

Deng feels a little too expensive, but at what point do we look at his production and realize that he is actually fairly priced? He has really flourished playing power forward since Chris Bosh went down. He has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 36.1 fantasy points in just over 35 minutes per contest.

Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Denver Nuggets Atlanta Hawks
denvernba Vegas Total 210.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 6 17 11 14 24 Opp. Season 17 27 16 25 14
Last 3 Weeks 1 8 3 5 19 Last 3 Weeks 5 26 18 22 2

Denver Nuggets

Record: 28-40 — Road: 12-21 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nuggets have won five of their last ten games and are now 28-40 overall. It’s a little too late to make a push for the playoffs, but they can develop some chemistry heading into the offseason. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks in what is a difficult matchup for fantasy production. The Nuggets are only projected to score 101 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board.

The Hawks have been outstanding defensively over the last three weeks. During that stretch, they are ranked eighth or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards. Atlanta is now ranked sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. There isn’t a ton to love here for fantasy purposes, but there is one play that stands out as an elite option.

Elite Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,500
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.7 24.4 3.7 26.2 5.5
FPPG (FD) 22.7 29.0 6.3 30.9 8.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.5 18.6 1.1 17.7 0.2

I’m typically in the school of thought that Jokic is a great tournament play, but a little too risky in cash games. I may be changing my tune tonight, as centers have had a lot of success against the Hawks this season. Atlanta has the third worst rebounding differential in the NBA and Jokic is finally starting to see consistent minutes. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26.2 minutes and 30.9 fantasy points per contest.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 39-29 — Home: 21-12 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hawks have won eight of their last ten games and are now ten above .500 on the season. They are fighting with the Heat, Celtics, and Hornets for playoff positioning in the East. Atlanta is listed as an 8-point favorite tonight against the Nuggets at home. Denver is always a favorable matchup, as evidenced by the Hawks’ team total of 109 points.

The Nuggets are an above-average rebounding team, but that’s about the only thing that they do well. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks’ offense gets a sizable boost as a whole tonight, although the eight point spread teeters on the brink of being a potential blowout.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 33.1 0.4 32.9 0.2
FPPG (FD) 36.9 36.9 0.0 36.4 -0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.1 19.3 -0.8 19.5 -0.6

Millsap has quietly been chugging along recently, averaging 36.9 fantasy points over his last ten games. He is by far my favorite play on the Hawks tonight, as he is consistent and draws a great matchup against the Nuggets. On the season, Denver is ranked 25th against power forwards.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.4 0.3 32.1 0.0
FPPG (FD) 32.0 32.1 0.1 31.9 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 16.5 -1.4 16.4 -1.6

Horford should fly under the radar tonight because, well he is Al Horford. I see him as more of a tournament play on FanDuel, but think you can use him in all league formats on DraftKings at a discounted price of $6,300. We know that bigs have success against the Nuggets and Horford should benefit from an uptempo game.

Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Milwaukee Bucks
memphisnba Vegas Total 202.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 96.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Briante Weber Tony Allen Matt Barnes JaMychal Green Ryan Hollins Proj. Starter Jerryd Bayless Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 7 25 24 20 22 Opp. Season 9 4 14 11 4
Last 3 Weeks 6 18 21 6 30 Last 3 Weeks 14 10 13 21 22

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 39-29 — Road: 15-18 — Last 10: 5-5

The Grizzlies have lost three games in a row. They currently look like a safe bet to make the playoffs, but don’t be surprised to see them drop in the standings over the next few weeks. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. Even though the Grizzlies are only projected to score 95.8 points, that’s not a bad team total considering all of the players that they are missing.

The Bucks are a slightly above-average matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 17th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The same players for the Grizzlies are out tonight. The only question mark heading into this game is Vince Carter. He is listed as questionable with a calf injury.

Elite Plays

Lance Stephenson
lance-stephenson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,500
Position:SG Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.1 26.4 8.3 31.2 13.1
FPPG (FD) 13.7 27.8 14.1 35.5 21.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 23.4 7.8 24.9 9.3

Stephenson has been a favorite target of mine ever since Mario Chalmers went down with his injury. Over his last three games, Stephenson has scored 52, 36, and 47 fantasy points. This looks like a completely different player than the one we saw earlier in the season. Even though the Grizzlies are sizable underdogs, Stephenson should continue to have a very high usage rate in this offense.

Secondary Plays

JaMychal Green
jamychal-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.2 27.2 10.0 31.7 14.5
FPPG (FD) 13.7 23.7 10.0 25.8 12.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.4 19.3 4.0 21.4 6.1

Green saw a major dip in his minutes in the Grizzlies’ previous two games thanks to a couple of blowouts, but he bounced back nicely last night with 32 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action. I’m not going to be looking his way in cash games, but he makes a nice tournament play at his price point. We have seen the type of upside that he has when given extended playing time.

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 32.0 4.3 33.2 5.5
FPPG (FD) 21.0 25.4 4.4 30.7 9.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 19.2 4.5 23.0 8.2

Barnes has seen a huge boost in minutes, usage, and fantasy production over his last ten games and even more so in his last five games. During that stretch, he is averaging 30.7 fantasy points with a usage rate of 23. The Bucks have not fared well against wing players this season and the Grizzlies may need him to play 35+ minutes tonight.

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 29-39 — Home: 20-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bucks have picked up their pace of play, as well as their play on both ends of the floor. They have won five of their last ten games, but would need a long winning streak to get back into the mix in the playoff picture. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the short-handed Grizzlies at home. The Bucks are 10.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 106.3 points.

We can just ignore the Grizzlies’ defensive numbers over the course of the entire season. Their roster looks nothing like it did two months ago. We should consider this a favorable matchup for the Bucks, as they do have the third highest projected point differential at +6.8.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$9,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 38.6 3.2 37.4 2.0
FPPG (FD) 34.1 48.8 14.7 46.5 12.4
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 22.5 3.9 22.7 4.1

I was hesitant to pay a premium for Giannis in a tough matchup against the Raptors, but he continued to dominate, scoring 51 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 48.8 fantasy points per contest. Given his matchup against the Grizzlies, I like him in all league formats tonight. The one concern here is a potential blowout, but hopefully Memphis can keep it within striking distance.

Jabari Parker
jabari-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.79
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.0 37.4 6.4 37.6 6.6
FPPG (FD) 23.2 31.3 8.1 29.4 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.1 20.5 3.4 18.8 1.7

Parker has been about as safe of a cash game play as there has been. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 31.3 fantasy points in over 37 minutes per contest. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, whose frontcourt is depleted.

Jerryd Bayless
jerryd-bayless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.3 34.2 4.9 36.7 7.4
FPPG (FD) 19.8 21.1 1.3 21.9 2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 13.5 -1.2 13.2 -1.4

Bayless hasn’t been doing a lot with his 40 minutes a game recently, but he has had a couple of difficult matchups. He draws a much better matchup tonight against the likes of Briante Weber and Ray McCallum. Many will say that he doesn’t have a high ceiling, but given his recent playing time, he should be able to reach value with ease in this matchup.

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton
khris-middleton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.8 38.9 2.1 38.6 1.8
FPPG (FD) 31.0 38.7 7.7 37.0 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 20.4 0.6 19.5 -0.3

Middleton is a borderline elite play tonight, but is my fourth favorite Bucks’ player, so I had to bump him down to a secondary play in the Grind Down. The only concern that I have tonight is his matchup against Tony Allen. He is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. That’s not to say that Middleton can’t play well, it’s just not as great of a spot for him as it is for some of his teammates.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious