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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-31 02:02:25

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Detroit Pistons
brooklynnba Vegas Total 213.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- 4.8
Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Randy Foye Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 4 19 14 8 Adj. DvP 30 28 29 26 26
DRPM 1.02 -0.66 0.68 0.98 1.29 DRPM -0.37 -1.74 -1.09 1.24 0.30

Brooklyn Nets

We have a small five game slate on tap on Thursday night. We open with the Nets and Pistons, which is a game that features two drastically different styles of basketball. The Nets love to push the pace and the Pistons try to make it a half-court game. The two teams do share an affinity for losing though, so they at least have something in common. From a matchup standpoint, this will be a pace-down game for Brooklyn. The Pistons are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Nets have an implied total of 103.5 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.

Jeremy Lin has played 28 and 30 minutes in his last two games, so it seems like the 26-minute cap is behind him. The one position that the Pistons are the most vulnerable against is point guards and Lin is still affordable on both FanDuel ($5,900) and DraftKings ($6,200). The wing players on the Nets all split minutes and are all risky fantasy options, even in a five game slate. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a decent value play on FanDuel ($4,900), but Brooklyn refuses to give him a full complement of minutes. He has shown nice upside, but is more of a secondary option tonight. Brook Lopez matches up amazingly well with Andre Drummond. In their last five meetings, Lopez has scored 38, 53, 42, 32, and 50 fantasy points. Lopez should be treated as an elite play in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $5,900 $6,200 1.11 23.3 0.3 25.8 0.5 28.8% 1.4% 18 1.02
Randy Foye $3,500 $3,000 0.57 19.1 2.5 11.0 1.8 16.3% -1.4% 4 -0.66
Caris LeVert $3,900 $3,600 0.71 21.4 2.7 15.3 2.4 16.6% -0.6% 19 0.68
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,900 $5,500 0.89 22.0 1.3 19.7 5.8 19.1% 2.1% 14 0.98
Brook Lopez $7,100 $7,000 1.09 29.6 -0.3 32.4 0.3 28.1% 1.5% 8 1.29

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lin, Brook Lopez

Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons lost a heartbreaker to the Heat the other night. After making a nice comeback in the fourth quarter, Hassan Whiteside tipped in a game-winning shot at the buzzer. The Pistons are now three games out of the playoff picture with only seven left to play. The most intriguing story in Detroit involves Reggie Jackson. He was rested in the last two games and there have been rumors that the Pistons may elect to shut him down for the season. Stan Van Gundy said that Jackson was day-to-day and that he really wants to be on the floor, so we will list him as questionable for now. On paper, the Pistons draw the best matchup in all of fantasy basketball. They have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is 8.2 points above their season average.

If Reggie Jackson is unable to suit up, Ish Smith would become close to a must play in all formats. He has scored 30 fantasy points in back-to-back starts and would face a Nets’ defense that is ranked dead last in adjusted DvP against point guards. If Jackson is active, we should probably avoid both players, unless you enjoy watching your lineups burst into flames. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris have both struggled in their last five games, but both are priced under $5,000 on FanDuel. These are both great buy-low points, especially given the matchup. Jon Leuer started the other night, but Tobias Harris is still the preferred target at power forward. Andre Drummond may not be able to defend Brook Lopez, but the opposite is true as well. Drummond has scored at least 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games against Lopez.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ish Smith $5,300 $6,100 0.87 23.5 0.9 20.5 1.8 23.7% 3.1% 30 -0.37
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,700 $5,200 0.70 33.7 -2.6 23.5 -3.5 19.6% 1.7% 28 -1.74
Marcus Morris $4,900 $5,100 0.72 32.9 -1.5 23.6 -6.2 20.1% -1.3% 29 -1.09
Jon Leuer $4,100 $4,200 0.77 26.5 -3.2 20.4 -1.9 17.4% 0.1% 26 1.24
Andre Drummond $7,500 $8,000 1.20 30.1 -2.5 36.2 -3.2 22.1% -2.1% 26 0.30
Tobias Harris $5,400 $6,000 0.83 31.5 -0.2 26.1 -0.2 21.5% -0.6% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Ish Smith (if Jackson is out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Marcus Morris (FD), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK), Marcus Morris (DK), Andre Drummond (Cash), Tobias Harris

Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Minnesota Timberwolves
lalakersnba Vegas Total 220.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread 10.5 Vegas Spread -10.5
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 115.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 2.2
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson D’Angelo Russell Corey Brewer Julius Randle Ivica Zubac Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 14 9 4 17 Adj. DvP 27 25 28 30 29
DRPM 0.93 0.05 -2.47 3.74 -1.39 DRPM -3.00 -1.84 0.52 -0.74 -0.58

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have the worst record in the Western Conference this season and have been playing some of their worst basketball in the last few weeks. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wolves on the road. Minnesota is currently ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. Even though the Lakers are listed as 10.5-point underdogs, they come into the game with an implied total of 105 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell have been taking turns having big games. They haven’t done so in any kind of pattern, but they are both playing 34+ minutes on a nightly basis. Clarkson is the cheaper of the two and has been playing more minutes recently, so I prefer him in cash games. Russell has the higher upside of the two and can be used in tournaments. Julius Randle draws a difficult matchup against Gorgui Dieng, who has a DRPM of 3.74 on the season. He is my third favorite power forward in this game alone. My second favorite is Larry Nance, who is averaging 30 minutes and 24 fantasy points in his last three games. Ivica Zubac’s minutes are anything but consistent, but he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in five of his last six games and is still underpriced on FanDuel ($4,400).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jordan Clarkson $5,900 $6,400 0.78 29.0 9.0 22.8 7.4 23.9% -0.7% 6 0.93
D’Angelo Russell $6,800 $7,200 0.98 28.3 4.9 27.6 2.6 28.7% -2.0% 14 0.05
Corey Brewer $3,500 $3,100 0.63 15.4 -0.5 9.7 2.0 14.5% 4.1% 9 -2.47
Julius Randle $6,700 $6,700 1.00 29.0 2.5 29.1 1.6 23.0% -1.1% 4 3.74
Ivica Zubac $4,400 $5,000 0.96 16.4 6.2 15.8 7.6 19.6% 0.6% 17 -1.39
Larry Nance $4,100 $4,600 0.83 22.0 -0.2 18.4 0.4 13.8% 1.9% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson (Cash), D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Julius Randle (GPP), Larry Nance, Ivica Zubac

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have lost seven of their last ten games, but get to face the lowly Lakers tonight at home. This is one of the top matchups in fantasy basketball, as the Lakers are ranked sixth in pace of play and 28th in points allowed per game. The Wolves come into the game as 10.5-point favorites with an implied total of 115.5 points, which is the highest in the slate. They also have the highest projected point differential at +10.5. The Wolves should be one of the most heavily targeted teams in this slate.

I always salivate at the thought of taking Ricky Rubio against teams that are 1. uptempo, 2. bad defensively, and 3. give up a lot of points in transition. Even at his elevated price point, Rubio is an elite play in all formats tonight. The Lakers are ranked 27th against point guards this season and Jordan Clarkson has a DRPM of -3.00. Andrew Wiggins has shown signs of life recently, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last six games. The Lakers don’t have any great on-ball defenders, so this is a good time to hop back on the Wiggins train. Gorgui Dieng is my favorite power forward in this game and one of best power forward values in the slate. With Nemanja Bjelica out, Dieng has seen a sizable boost in minutes and fantasy production. Center is a surprisingly deep position tonight. While Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to dominate on both ends of the floor, he is rather pricey. I prefer using him on DraftKings where he is power forward eligible. Kris Dunn is also seeing extended action off the bench and could push for 30 minutes if the game turns into a blowout. He is an excellent value play in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $7,700 $7,800 0.92 32.5 1.8 29.9 5.2 21.7% 4.6% 29 -3.00
Brandon Rush $3,500 $3,000 0.45 20.9 0.0 9.4 -1.6 10.1% -2.4% 26 -1.84
Andrew Wiggins $7,000 $7,100 0.86 37.2 0.2 31.9 0.1 28.1% 1.7% 28 0.52
Gorgui Dieng $5,200 $5,900 0.78 32.0 5.2 25.1 2.7 14.8% -0.7% 30 -0.74
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,600 $10,900 1.20 36.9 1.8 44.4 -0.7 27.0% -0.4% 29 -0.58
Shabazz Muhammad $3,800 $3,800 0.71 19.7 -2.0 14.0 0.4 19.7% 3.7% 28 N/A
Kris Dunn $3,900 $3,900 0.68 17.0 8.4 11.6 9.3 16.9% -1.8% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns (DK), Kris Dunn (DK)

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (FD), Kris Dunn (FD)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Chicago Bulls
clevelandnba Vegas Total 210.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 107.8 Team Total 102.3
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Jimmy Butler Paul Zipser Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 12 14 17 4 Adj. DvP 23 30 22 13 20
DRPM -0.61 1.99 -0.01 1.28 0.13 DRPM -1.99 -0.47 1.22 2.20 1.22

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers lost their lead in the East, but got lucky with a Celtics loss at home last night. Cleveland now has a one game lead over Boston in the loss column and now control their own destiny in terms of home-court advantage. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and 13th in defensive efficiency. Cleveland comes into the game as 5.5-point favorites with an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the fifth lowest in the slate and 2.8 points below their season average.

Kyrie Irving really let me down the other night against the Spurs. Granted, it was a bad matchup and the Cavaliers fell apart early in the game, but that was a bad outing from Uncle Drew. The good news is that he has a good chance for redemption tonight. Irving is still priced below $8,000 on DraftKings and he draws an exploitable matchup against Rajon Rondo. LeBron James knows the importance of home-court advantage and after getting thrashed by the Spurs, he’ll want to get back on track tonight. James has 40-minute upside and is one of the top overall plays in the slate. Kevin Love appears to be off of his minute restriction, which means he is back on our radar for DFS. His price is only going up from here, so now is the time to target him.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,800 $7,900 1.09 34.9 -2.0 38.2 -1.3 32.4% 1.6% 24 -0.61
J.R. Smith $3,500 $3,900 0.54 27.7 -1.7 15.0 -1.0 14.6% -0.2% 12 1.99
LeBron James $10,700 $10,100 1.30 37.5 -1.2 48.7 -1.8 32.9% 0.0% 14 -0.01
Kevin Love $7,400 $7,300 1.14 31.2 -5.1 35.6 -7.6 25.3% -2.7% 17 1.28
Tristan Thompson $4,900 $4,400 0.77 29.9 -2.0 23.1 -2.2 11.0% -1.1% 4 0.13

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK), LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD)

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have not played well this season. After bringing in Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo, Bulls’ fans were at least expecting them to make the playoffs. While I don’t expect it to happen, they are only a game and a half behind the Heat and Pacers. They absolutely need a win tonight to stay alive. The Cavaliers have been surprisingly bad on defense this season, ranking 20th or worse in every defensive statistic listed above. Chicago come into the game with an implied total of 102.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

Do you know what has turned into a narrative recently? Playing Rajon Rondo in nationally televised games. Whether you want to target him for the narrative or for the matchup, Rondo looks like an excellent tournament play in this five game slate. The Bulls are ranked 23rd against point guards this season and Kyrie Irving is by far the worst defender in the Cavaliers’ starting lineup. Jimmy Butler could play more than 40 minutes tonight and dollar for dollar, I prefer him over LeBron James on FanDuel. With only a $100 difference on DraftKings, I would lean to the King. Butler has scored 41 and 54 fantasy points in his last two games against James. Nikola Mirotic has played well in his last five games, averaging 29 minutes and 28 fantasy points per contest. His price is up across the board. While I still like Mirotic in tournaments, he has an awfully low floor for cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,500 $6,600 0.91 26.4 2.1 23.9 3.4 22.5% -0.3% 23 -1.99
Jimmy Butler $10,000 $10,000 1.13 36.9 0.7 41.7 2.8 28.6% -2.9% 30 -0.47
Paul Zipser $3,700 $4,000 0.55 18.2 6.1 10.0 4.9 14.4% 0.1% 22 1.22
Nikola Mirotic $5,200 $5,800 0.83 23.5 5.4 19.5 8.2 19.2% 1.9% 13 2.20
Robin Lopez $4,800 $4,700 0.78 27.8 -2.0 21.8 -1.6 17.2% 0.5% 20 1.22

Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo (GPP), Jimmy Butler (FD)

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (Cash), Jimmy Butler (DK), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Phoenix Suns
laclippersnba Vegas Total 218.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Spread -11.0 Vegas Spread 11.0
Team Total 114.8 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- 4.0 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Tyler Ulis Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 27 18 13 29 26 Adj. DvP 9 5 21 20 10
DRPM -0.93 -2.24 -2.76 -1.19 1.33 DRPM 3.30 -1.72 2.32 0.65 3.28

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Wizards at home last night. The Clippers are currently tied with the Thunder in the loss column and would love to secure the fifth seed in the West. They draw a tremendous matchup tonight against the Suns, who are ranked second in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The Clippers have one of the highest implied totals in the slate and we can give their offense a sizable boost as a whole.

Even though Chris Paul logged a ton of minutes last night against the Wizards, he should see a full complement of minutes again tonight. The Clippers want to win and they want to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs. Paul is expensive enough that I wouldn’t consider him an elite cash game option, but you can certainly look his way in tournaments. With Austin Rivers unable to suit up, J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford should both see a nice minutes bump. The matchup doesn’t get any better, as the Suns are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season. Blake Griffin hasn’t been in the best form recently, but should post a solid all-around game tonight. The Suns don’t have anyone that can defend him in the post or in the pick-and-roll. While I like Griffin, I absolutely love DeAndre Jordan. He is still only $6,900 on DraftKings. He has 20-point, 20-rebound type of upside in this matchup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $8,800 $8,600 1.25 31.2 -0.1 38.9 -3.7 28.8% 0.6% 29 -0.93
J.J. Redick $4,300 $4,300 0.71 27.8 -2.3 19.7 1.9 21.2% 0.7% 22 -2.24
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.52 21.7 -3.9 11.4 -2.3 11.0% -0.3% 11 -2.76
Blake Griffin $8,600 $8,100 1.14 33.8 -0.4 38.5 -6.5 29.0% -3.6% 28 -1.19
DeAndre Jordan $7,900 $6,900 1.07 31.5 -0.6 33.7 3.4 14.6% 0.3% 27 1.33
Jamal Crawford $3,600 $3,900 0.71 26.4 0.6 18.7 -0.8 22.9% -2.3% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul (GPP), Blake Griffin (DK), DeAndre Jordan (DK), J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (Cash), Blake Griffin (FD), DeAndre Jordan (FD)

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have not only been losing games, they have been getting their socks blown off. Their losing streak could get up to ten games with a loss tonight against the Clippers. While they may not be competitive at this point in the season, they are one of the few teams that are easy to predict when it comes to their rotation. Tonight’s matchup against the Clippers is mediocre at best. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked 12th in points allowed per game and that’s with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin missing a ton of time.

Tyler Ulis has played at least 40 minutes in six of his last seven games and has scored at least 34 fantasy points five times during that stretch. He is still firmly in play on FanDuel at $6,200, even though Chris Paul is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. I probably won’t use Ulis in cash games, but 40 minutes from a starting point guard is hard to pass up at this price. A lot hinges on the health of Devin Booker. If he is unable to suit up, T.J. Warren becomes the number one option offensively. On Tuesday night, Warren took 20 shots against the Hawks. If Booker is active, we can look his way in tournaments given the insane shot volume recently. Marquese Chriss has been a favorite GPP target of mine, but he’s bound to get into foul trouble against Blake Griffin. Alex Len and Alan Williams are basically in a timeshare right now and can be avoided while both are healthy.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tyler Ulis $6,200 $7,200 0.80 15.8 21.4 12.7 17.3 23.1% -3.2% 8 3.30
Devin Booker $7,600 $7,200 0.85 34.9 2.5 29.6 8.5 28.1% 5.0% 5
T.J. Warren $6,600 $7,500 0.80 30.7 6.7 24.5 9.8 18.7% 0.3% 23 2.32
Marquese Chriss $4,900 $5,400 0.80 20.7 6.4 16.7 7.6 18.7% 2.4% 18 0.65
Alex Len $5,000 $4,700 0.92 20.3 4.7 18.6 5.8 16.8% 1.8% 14 3.28
Alan Williams $5,200 $5,000 1.16 14.3 8.6 16.7 7.7 20.1% -0.2% 14 N/A
Jared Dudley $3,900 $4,200 0.67 21.0 2.7 14.0 3.4 14.3% -0.2% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Ulis (FD), T.J. Warren (if Booker is out)

Secondary Plays – T.J. Warren (if Booker is active), Devin Booker (if active)

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets Portland Trail Blazers
houstonnba Vegas Total 228.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 228.5
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 114.8 Team Total 113.8
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- 3.4
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley Eric Gordon James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 17 7 10 21 18 Adj. DvP 20 24 25 22 25
DRPM -1.77 -2.17 0.27 1.48 2.28 DRPM 2.10 -0.27 -1.65 1.67 0.96

Houston Rockets

The Rockets fell short against the Warriors on Tuesday night and will try to bounce back tonight. They don’t have a ton to play for at this point, as they are all but locked into the three seed in the West. James Harden said that he is dealing with a wrist injury, but is fully expected to play tonight. The Blazers are a great matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Rockets have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the second highest in the slate.

James Harden is the top overall play in the slate and after watching an epic performance from Russell Westbrook, he may put on a show of his own in the race for the league’s MVP. The Blazers are not a good defensive team and Harden’s price has come down to $12,400 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Point guard is littered with options tonight, which makes Patrick Beverley a deep tournament play at best. With Ryan Anderson still on the shelf, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza should both play 35+ minutes. Both are borderline elite plays at their respective positions. Lou Williams has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games and has massive upside at his price point. Clint Capela grades out as a nice value at center, but the position has enough options that I wouldn’t consider him an elite play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $4,800 $4,900 0.80 30.6 0.2 24.6 -5.9 16.2% 0.3% 17 -1.77
Eric Gordon $4,800 $5,300 0.78 30.8 1.5 23.9 -2.7 22.4% -4.3% 7 -2.17
James Harden $12,400 $12,400 1.48 36.5 0.4 54.0 4.0 38.8% 1.9% 10 0.27
Trevor Ariza $5,600 $5,700 0.73 34.5 0.6 25.3 1.9 14.3% -1.5% 21 1.48
Clint Capela $5,600 $5,600 1.07 23.7 1.7 25.4 2.7 19.0% -0.8% 18 2.28
Lou Williams $4,600 $5,400 1.06 24.2 0.8 25.6 -2.0 29.5% -4.2% 7 N/A
Nene Hilario $4,500 $4,200 0.95 17.7 2.5 16.9 4.2 19.1% 1.9% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon (FD), Trevor Ariza (FD), Lou Williams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (DK), Trevor Ariza (DK), Lou Williams (Cash), Patrick Beverley, Clint Capela

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have won four games in a row and eight of their last ten. They currently hold a one game lead over the Nuggets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. Every game from here on out is a must win, so they will be motivated and prepared for tonight’s outing against the Rockets. Portland comes into the game as 1-point underdogs, but they have an implied total of 113.8 points. Not only do they have the third highest team total in the slate, but it is 5.8 points above their season average.

Damian Lillard has been on a tear over his last five games, averaging 45 fantasy points per contest. While he can certainly break out in any matchup, he has only scored over 40 fantasy points one time in his last five outings against Patrick Beverley, who is an elite defender. Even with the shaky history, Lillard is an elite play tonight in a must win game for the Blazers. C.J. McCollum is also an elite play and draws the better matchup of the two Blazers’ guards. With Ryan Anderson out, Noah Vonleh could be the odd man out of the rotation. They will want Nurkic on the floor and will likely be forced to play small to match up with the Rockets. For that reason, we can give a small bump to Al-Farouq Aminu and Allen Crabbe off the bench. Jusuf Nurkic had himself a career game against his former team and should be able to put on an encore. The Rockets are ranked 25th in adjusted DvP against centers this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,300 $9,200 1.14 35.8 -1.6 41.0 4.0 32.6% 1.9% 20 2.10
C.J. McCollum $7,200 $7,600 0.96 35.0 -0.4 33.5 -1.5 27.5% -1.7% 24 -0.27
Maurice Harkless $3,500 $3,900 0.69 28.8 -5.4 20.0 -8.6 15.1% -3.4% 25 -1.65
Noah Vonleh $3,700 $4,100 0.68 15.7 10.8 10.7 7.9 12.9% -2.0% 22 1.67
Jusuf Nurkic $7,500 $8,000 1.08 21.2 7.0 23.0 11.5 24.0% 1.1% 25 0.96
Al-Farouq Aminu $4,600 $4,500 0.74 28.8 -2.7 21.4 -3.4 15.0% -0.8% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic

Secondary Plays – Al-Farouq Aminu, Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious