NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 12th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.5 |  | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 26 | 7 | 18 | 18 | DvP | 15 | 24 | 25 | 28 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 26 | 14 | 28 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 7 | |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have lost seven of their last ten games and are tied with the Bulls for the worst record in the NBA. While a matchup against the Cavaliers is generally good for fantasy production, it also comes with some blowout risk. The spread for this game is set at 11 points, which is easily the largest on the board tonight. If the Hawks can keep the game close, they have plenty of upside. On the season, Cleveland is ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.
Point guards have had success against Cleveland this season, but Dennis Schroder seems a bit overpriced. Despite an elite true usage rate, he doesn’t offer the same type of minutes and peripheral upside that a lot of point guards do. Atlanta will need a big game from him to stay competitive, but he’s not on my radar tonight. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince are intriguing tournament plays on the wing. Bazemore averages close to a fantasy point per minute, while Prince is averaging 34 minutes in his last four games.
Ersan Ilyasova is finally starting to flash the upside that we have seen from him over the years. In his last three games, he has scored 28, 36, and 38 fantasy points. Most people won’t recognize his recent play and the ones that do will likely be quick to dismiss it. With the Hawks’ frontcourt in shambles, Ilyasova could easily end up playing 30 minutes tonight. He’s an excellent tournament play that could end up being less than 10% owned.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Out)
John Collins (Out)
Dewayne Dedmon (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (8 of 14)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,900 | $7,600 | $13,800 | 34.1 | 0.3 | 32.1 | -0.2 | 1.06 | 29.4% | 19 | 21 | 10 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,500 | $5,300 | $11,000 | 27.2 | -0.6 | 28.7 | 0.7 | 0.95 | 19.1% | 23 | 26 | 26 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,700 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 25.8 | 1.5 | 31.2 | 2.6 | 0.83 | 16.6% | 19 | 7 | 14 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,900 | $5,200 | $10,700 | 20.7 | 9.2 | 22.4 | 4.2 | 0.92 | 15.0% | 21 | 18 | 28 |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,600 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 11.7 | 2.5 | 14.1 | 2.5 | 0.83 | 11.6% | 13 | 18 | 19 |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,000 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 20.6 | -3.7 | 25.6 | -1.6 | 0.81 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Taurean Prince (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP), Ersan Ilyasova (GPP)
Secondary Plays -Taurean Prince (Cash), Kent Bazemore (Cash), Ersan Ilyasova (Cash), Dennis Schroder
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers’ winning streak came to an end, but they have still been one of the best teams in basketball over the last few weeks. They are only going to get better moving forward, as Tristan Thompson will return tonight and Isaiah Thomas will return in the near future. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have the highest implied total of the slate at 113.8 points.
The only reason to dislike the Cavaliers tonight is if you expect the game to turn into a blowout. Even in that scenario, the starters will play well while on the floor. As I often mention, I tend to factor in potential blowouts more on the underdog side than the favorite side. LeBron James is arguably the best cash game target to pay up for in the slate. He offers a high floor, a high ceiling, and the Cavaliers have a massive team total. James is expensive, but makes a lot of sense if you want to lock in 50+ fantasy points in cash games.
Dwyane Wade has been wildly inconsistent off the bench this season. There are times when he comes in and takes over the game and other times where he seems disinterested in basketball. He’s the opposite of LeBron in that we should never trust him in a cash game setting. Still, the matchup is favorable and the price has come down, so I’m willing to look his way in tournaments. Kevin Love has been dealing with a shoulder injury, but is expected to play tonight. While he is amazing on a per minute basis (1.23 FP/min), I have a hard time paying $8,000+ for a player that averages less than 30 minutes a game.
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Probable)
Kevin Love (Probable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.5 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (1 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (4 of 14)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,600 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 0.52 | 10.2% | 27 | 15 | 30 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.0 | -0.6 | 30.8 | -1.8 | 0.55 | 12.1% | 3 | 24 | 2 |
| LeBron James | $12,600 | $11,800 | $21,300 | 54.7 | 5.0 | 37.3 | 1.1 | 1.47 | 29.7% | 30 | 25 | 18 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 15.3 | 3.3 | 25.8 | -0.2 | 0.59 | 13.5% | 18 | 28 | 4 |
| Kevin Love | $8,000 | $8,200 | $14,900 | 35.8 | 1.2 | 29.2 | -2.9 | 1.23 | 22.9% | 24 | 25 | 7 |
| Channing Frye | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 9.6 | -0.8 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 0.74 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,300 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 24.8 | -3.1 | 23.7 | 1.3 | 1.05 | 22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade (GPP)
Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 5 | DvP | 25 | 23 | 10 | 22 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 14 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 8 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have won two games in a row and are actually only a couple of games out of the playoff race in the Western Conference. They are not a team that I expect to compete this season, but they certainly have a brighter future than they did a few years back. Tonight’s game against the Knicks projects to be the fastest-paced game on the schedule. The Knicks have been mediocre defensively, but they are one of the better rebounding teams in the NBA. The Lakers’ implied total of 104.5 points is slightly lower than their season average.
Lonzo Ball has been inconsistent when it comes to fantasy production and we are starting to see that inconsistency spill over into his playing time. In his last four games, he has played 33, 22, 38, and 26 minutes. We are to the point where he is an auto-fade in cash games. While the matchup against the Knicks is favorable (28th in efficiency against point guards) is favorable, I would rather take the discount and play Jordan Clarkson off the bench. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Ingram should both see minutes in the mid-30s tonight, but are both priced up across the industry.
Larry Nance has been quiet over his last four games, averaging only 23 minutes and 21 fantasy points per contest. He has a very low usage rate (14%) compared to Julius Randle (20%), so if the two are going to see similar minutes, we might as well side with the more productive one (Randle). Brook Lopez is only $4,400 on FanDuel. I would be lying if I said that I didn’t have any interest. Even though his minutes have gone down, he has scored at least 22 fantasy points in three of his last four games.
Notable Injuries
None
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (9 of 14)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 32.0 | -2.3 | 32.9 | -2.8 | 0.97 | 17.9% | 28 | 28 | 14 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,800 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 27.5 | -5.1 | 34.4 | -2.7 | 0.80 | 16.1% | 4 | 14 | 20 |
| Brandon Ingram | $7,100 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 29.8 | 2.2 | 33.9 | 0.7 | 0.88 | 19.9% | 24 | 11 | 19 |
| Larry Nance | $5,200 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 24.6 | -4.0 | 23.5 | -0.5 | 1.05 | 13.8% | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| Brook Lopez | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 25.6 | -1.8 | 22.8 | -2.1 | 1.12 | 21.8% | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| Julius Randle | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 24.5 | 0.1 | 22.4 | 1.0 | 1.09 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $5,300 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 23.4 | -2.8 | 22.6 | 0.0 | 1.03 | 25.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Julius Randle (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle (Cash), Brook Lopez (FD)
New York Knicks
If the regular season ended today, the Knicks would be in a three-way tie for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. They haven’t been playing their best basketball of late, but they’ve had to deal with a few different injuries. They draw one of the best possible matchups tonight, as the Lakers are ranked first in pace of play and 24th in points allowed per game this season. New York’s implied total of 107.5 points is the fifth highest of the slate and 3.5 points above their season average.
With Ron Baker back in the mix, I have a hard time trusting any of the Knicks’ point guards. Jarrett Jack, Frank Nkilitina, and Baker will all see between 20-26 minutes and they will all cut into each other’s fantasy production. Even in an ideal matchup against the Lakers, I will be avoiding the situation completely. Courtney Lee is an intriguing buy-low candidate tonight. He generally plays minutes in the mid-30s when the game stays close and his price is down to $5,400 on FanDuel. Given his recent form, I don’t expect anyone to play him in tournaments.
Kristaps Porzingis is a core play for me tonight on DraftKings ($8,500). He has an elite true usage rate (29%) and an elite matchup (Lakers are ranked 29th in efficiency against power forwards). Porzingis also has significant home/road splits, averaging five more fantasy points per game in New York. His price is a little prohibitive on FanDuel (I prefer Ben Simmons for a few hundred more), but the unicorn is firmly on my radar for cash games and tournaments on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.
Notable Injuries
None
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (3 of 14)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.1 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,800 | $4,500 | $9,500 | 19.1 | 2.2 | 26.1 | -1.4 | 0.73 | 16.5% | 19 | 25 | 2 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,400 | $5,700 | $12,400 | 24.1 | -6.2 | 31.9 | -4.7 | 0.75 | 15.8% | 17 | 23 | 6 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 16.5 | 7.7 | 0.50 | 11.2% | 6 | 10 | 22 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,700 | $8,500 | $17,300 | 40.3 | -1.4 | 32.1 | 3.9 | 1.25 | 29.4% | 29 | 22 | 4 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,600 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 29.2 | -6.7 | 25.8 | -2.6 | 1.13 | 18.0% | 14 | 26 | 8 |
| Doug McDermott | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 23.8 | 3.2 | 0.62 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ron Baker | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 14.8 | 11.7 | 0.75 | 12.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (DK), Courtney Lee (FD GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (FD), Courtney Lee (FD Cash)
Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Mason Plumlee | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 17 | 30 | 12 | 9 | DvP | 26 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 26 | 18 | 9 | 30 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 4 | 27 | 25 | 22 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are trying to keep their heads above water, as they wait for Nikola Jokic to return from injury. They’ve been one of the better teams to target for DFS recently, but draw one of the worst matchups on the board. The Pistons play at a slow pace (21st) and are ranked seventh in points allowed per game. The Nuggets have an implied total of 103 points, which is the fourth lowest and 4.3 points below their season average. To be honest, their implied total still feels a bit high.
Right when it looked like Jamal Murray had taken over this backcourt, the Nuggets decide to cut his minutes. Over the last four games, Murray is averaging 24 minutes and Emmanuel Mudiay is averaging 22. For now, I don’t mind taking a shot on Mudiay in tournaments (only $3,700 on FanDuel), but will be avoiding Murray in all formats. Gary Harris and Will Barton are playing as many minutes as they can handle right now. This is pure speculation on my part, but Barton could draw the defense of Avery Bradley. If that’s the case, Harris will have the better matchup. He also has a significantly cheaper price point, making him my preferred target of the two. I’ve been the captain of the Barton train over the last couple of weeks, but this is where I hop off.
Wilson Chandler price is enticing, but he’s been outplayed by both Kenneth Faried and Trey Lyles. I will let everyone else chase Chandler’s 33 fantasy point outing against the Pacers (who are one of the worst teams in basketball against power forwards). Faried and Lyles are both tournament darts, but we should be able to find better value in a seven game slate. Basically, outside of Harris, I will have very little exposure to the Nuggets tonight. Detroit plays very good defense, especially at home.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Jokic (Out)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (14 of 14)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $5,200 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 22.0 | -0.4 | 26.7 | -3.2 | 0.82 | 22.4% | 18 | 6 | 26 |
| Gary Harris | $6,000 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 27.7 | 2.4 | 33.6 | 3.5 | 0.83 | 17.6% | 2 | 17 | 18 |
| Will Barton | $7,800 | $7,400 | $14,400 | 30.6 | 11.5 | 31.3 | 9.7 | 0.98 | 20.3% | 29 | 30 | 9 |
| Wilson Chandler | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 19.3 | 1.0 | 30.0 | -1.4 | 0.64 | 13.5% | 10 | 12 | 30 |
| Mason Plumlee | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 18.0 | 2.1 | 17.9 | 2.3 | 1.00 | 15.0% | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | $3,700 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.5 | 1.1 | 22.0 | 0.3 | 0.84 | 22.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kenneth Faried | $5,500 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 15.4 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 12.1 | 0.94 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trey Lyles | $4,800 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 9.5 | 0.96 | 17.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Gary Harris (FD)
Secondary Plays – Gary Harris (DK), Emmanuel Mudiay (FD GPP)
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are looking to snap a six game losing streak. It was only two weeks ago when they had one of the best records in the Eastern Conference and they have dropped all the way down to seventh in the standings. They come into tonight’s game as 6-point favorites and they draw an excellent matchup against the Nuggets, who are a much different defense without Nikola Jokic on the floor. On the season, Denver is now ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Pistons have an implied total of 109 points, which is the third highest overall and nearly six points above their season average.
Reggie Jackson has been extremely frustrating this season, but draws a breakout matchup against the Nuggets. Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay are both below-average defenders and as a whole, the Nuggets are ranked 23rd in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. Jackson doesn’t have 35+ minute upside like a lot of point guards, but he’s one of my favorite plays on FanDuel at a reasonable price of $6,100. Avery Bradley has been quiet for the better part of three weeks. While the price is enticing, I will continue to fade him until he can flash some form.
Tobias Harris is often the forgotten man at power forward. He should see minutes in the mid-30s in a very favorable matchup against the Nuggets. Harris isn’t a core play for me tonight, but he should certainly be on your radar if you need a power forward in his price range. Andre Drummond just might be my favorite play on the board this evening. He is having a breakout season, he has 35+ minute upside (rare for a center), and he gets to face a Nuggets’ frontcourt that is missing their best defender. I don’t like to make actual predictions very often, but I’m calling for a 50-burger (fantasy points, not actual points) from Drummond tonight.
Notable Injuries
Avery Bradley (Probable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (2 of 14)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $6,100 | $5,900 | $12,000 | 27.1 | -3.5 | 27.7 | 0.3 | 0.98 | 25.9% | 23 | 26 | 26 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,300 | $5,200 | $11,000 | 24.1 | -3.7 | 31.8 | 0.6 | 0.76 | 20.9% | 17 | 5 | 4 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 17.2 | 3.4 | 28.9 | -3.3 | 0.60 | 13.1% | 11 | 15 | 27 |
| Tobias Harris | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 29.4 | -0.5 | 33.4 | 3.7 | 0.88 | 20.6% | 23 | 26 | 25 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,200 | $9,400 | $17,100 | 43.3 | -2.5 | 33.4 | 0.1 | 1.30 | 17.7% | 24 | 8 | 22 |
| Ish Smith | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 18.5 | -1.7 | 19.8 | 0.2 | 0.93 | 24.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson (FD), Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (DK), Tobias Harris
Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tim Frazier | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 16 | 29 | 25 | 28 | DvP | 11 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 22 | 3 | 20 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 13 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards were hoping to have John Wall back tonight, but all signs are pointing to him returning tomorrow against the Grizzlies. This opens up a big opportunity for DFS, as the Wizards have one of the best matchups on the board and they will be without their star point guard. To put into perspective how good a matchup against the Nets truly is, the Wizards’ implied total is 2.6 points above their season average and they will likely be without Wall.
I’ve been burned by Bradley Beal a number of times over the last two weeks, but it’s hard not to like a player that should have a 30%+ usage rate against the Nets, who are ranked 21st in efficiency against shooting guards. Beal’s price is up around the industry, but that should keep his ownership at reasonable levels. I’m not sure if I will end up taking the Beal route in cash games, but he’s certainly on my short list of tournament targets. Otto Porter finally broke out of his slump with a 55 fantasy point outing against the Clippers the other night. While that’s promising, his price quickly reacted and is up over $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Given his low floor lately, he’s best suited as a tournament play.
Markieff Morris has played at least 30 minutes in two of the last three games. If you use projection models, he’s not going to stand out as a great point-per-dollar play. However, he might see 30 minutes against a Nets’ team that is ranked 27th in efficiency and 25th in DvP against power forwards. We have to think about the Wizards logically. They are projected to score 109 points and will likely be without Wall. This is a such a great spot for this offense. Marcin Gortat is also viable tonight, especially if Ian Mahinmi (questionable) is ruled out. Kelly Oubre always deserves GPP consideration in uptempo games and tonight’s matchup against the Nets fits the bill.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Doubtful)
Ian Mahinmi (Questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (6 of 14)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.1 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Frazier | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 14.3 | 1.6 | 18.1 | 3.3 | 0.79 | 13.9% | 29 | 27 | 4 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,600 | $8,600 | $16,600 | 35.9 | 1.4 | 34.9 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 26.8% | 21 | 16 | 22 |
| Otto Porter | $7,400 | $7,200 | 31.9 | -1.8 | 32.6 | -1.1 | 0.98 | 17.2% | 8 | 29 | 3 | |
| Markieff Morris | $5,100 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 19.2 | 1.0 | 23.4 | 1.7 | 0.82 | 18.2% | 27 | 25 | 20 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,700 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 25.4 | -1.6 | 28.9 | -5.4 | 0.88 | 13.5% | 27 | 28 | 13 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,500 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 21.9 | -3.5 | 27.3 | -3.1 | 0.80 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tomas Satoransky | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 13.2 | 3.8 | 16.6 | 7.9 | 0.80 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal (GPP), Markieff Morris (GPP), Marcin Gortat (if Mahinmi is out)
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (Cash), Markieff Morris (Cash), Marcin Gortat (if Mahinmi is active), Kelly Oubre (GPP)
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have lost six of their last ten games, but aren’t that far out of playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. I’m not sure that making the playoffs is their ultimate goal this season, but they’ve played well enough to be in the mix. They are expected to have Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas available tonight, although we haven’t heard word on how much they will play. Seeing as how neither player saw the floor much in Philadelphia, they should be happy in their new surroundings. As for tonight, the Nets have an implied total of 105.5 points against the Wizards, who are mediocre on the defensive end of the floor.
Spencer Dinwiddie price has finally come down to a playable level, at least on DraftKings ($6,100). He should see minutes in the low-30s against the likes of Tim Frazier and Tomas Satoransky. I’m a fan of this game in general and Dinwiddie is a great way to get exposure to the Nets’ side of the ball. Caris LeVert has played well recently, but his price is a bit too rich for my blood ($6,100 on FanDuel). Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is cheap on DraftKings ($5,800) and worth a look in tournaments. I’m hesitant to use him in a cash game setting given how inconsistent the frontcourt rotation has been this season.
Notable Injuries
Jahlil Okafor (Probable)
Nik Stauskas (Probable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 (10 of 14)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,000 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 27.7 | 2.7 | 26.3 | 1.7 | 1.05 | 22.4% | 2 | 11 | 8 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 20.4 | -2.8 | 27.4 | 0.6 | 0.74 | 16.8% | 15 | 4 | 19 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 26.7 | -5.0 | 29.5 | -0.6 | 0.90 | 17.7% | 13 | 27 | 1 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,200 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 27.6 | 1.9 | 27.6 | 2.3 | 1.00 | 19.4% | 20 | 3 | 11 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 16.7 | 2.4 | 18.6 | 2.0 | 0.90 | 14.6% | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| Caris LeVert | $6,100 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 24.0 | 7.3 | 26.3 | 2.3 | 0.91 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (FD Cash)
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (FD), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK Cash)
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.0 |  | Vegas Total | 198.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Yogi Ferrell | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 19 | 6 | 23 | 23 | DvP | 1 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 28 | 29 | 12 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 1 | N/A | 23 | 3 | |
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs’ fans should be rejoicing right now, as Kawhi Leonard is set to make his season debut. The fact that San Antonio managed to go 19-8 without their best player goes to show just how solid of an organization they have top to bottom. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in what should be the slowest-paced game on the schedule. Dallas has improved their play on the defensive end of the floor recently and are now ranked tenth in points allowed per game.
Outside of Kyle Anderson, the Spurs will be as close to full strength as they have been all year. Leonard will be on a minute restriction tonight, but we may not know the exact number until closer to tip-off. With him back in the lineup, I’m tempted to fade this team completely until we see how the rotation and usage shakes out. The one player that I still have some interest in is Rudy Gay. Over his last four games, he is averaging 32 fantasy points per contest. With Anderson out and with Leonard on a minute restriction, I’m expecting Gay to see 26-30 minutes tonight.
Notable Injuries
Kyle Anderson (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Probable)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.5 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (13 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (7 of 14)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 18.6 | 3.6 | 17.9 | 1.7 | 1.04 | 23.1% | 23 | 24 | 1 |
| Danny Green | $4,400 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 22.7 | 2.0 | 28.4 | -0.7 | 0.80 | 15.1% | 9 | 19 | 28 |
| Kawhi Leonard | $7,000 | $7,300 | $15,100 | 27 | 6 | 29 | ||||||
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,300 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 39.3 | -3.8 | 33.4 | 1.2 | 1.18 | 26.2% | 7 | 23 | 12 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,000 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 28.9 | 1.6 | 25.3 | -0.6 | 1.14 | 18.8% | 22 | 23 | 14 |
| Patty Mills | $4,200 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 19.2 | 2.4 | 25.5 | 0.3 | 0.75 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rudy Gay | $5,300 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 24.8 | 7.2 | 23.5 | 8.1 | 1.06 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rudy Gay (FD)
Secondary Plays – Rudy Gay (DK)
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have the worst record in the Western Conference and it’s not like they can blame it on anything but not playing well. They have been fairly healthy this season, they just don’t have enough talent on their roster. They draw one of the worst possible matchups tonight, as they host the Spurs. On the season, San Antonio is ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Mavericks’ implied total of 96 points is the lowest on the board.
Despite the terrible matchup, there are two Mavericks’ players on my radar tonight. With Dennis Smith out, Yogi Ferrell and J.J. Barea should both log heavy minutes against the Spurs. Ferrell should see around 30 minutes and is priced to move on DraftKings ($3,800). J.J. Barea has higher upside (1.04 FP/min) and could potentially see 26-30 minutes in this one. He seems to like facing the Spurs, as he already has two 30+ fantasy point outings against them this season.
Notable Injuries
Dennis Smith (Out)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 100.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.0 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -4.1 (13 of 14)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.4 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.0 | 3.3 | 28.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | 14.7% | 7 | 1 | 13 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 22.2 | 1.5 | 34.5 | 0.4 | 0.64 | 15.4% | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,600 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 30.8 | 1.5 | 35.1 | -0.5 | 0.88 | 21.6% | 9 | 4 | N/A |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,800 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 17.0 | 9.3 | 0.69 | 11.5% | 1 | 5 | 23 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 22.5 | 0.2 | 25.0 | 0.6 | 0.90 | 17.9% | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| J.J. Barea | $5,400 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 23.4 | 0.6 | 22.5 | 1.3 | 1.04 | 26.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Devin Harris | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.1 | -1.6 | 18.8 | 1.6 | 0.86 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |