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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-23 02:44:35

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Charlotte Hornets Brooklyn Nets
charlottenba Vegas Total 210.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 108.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 96.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 24 23 21 20 25 Opp. Season 12 13 20 24 12
Last 3 Weeks 17 29 27 22 23 Last 3 Weeks 15 9 13 14 11

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 40-30 — Road: 13-19 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season. After being down 30-7 in the first quarter against the Spurs last night, they completed an epic comeback. They have now won eight of their last ten games and are only a half-game out of the three seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Nets in Brooklyn. They are projected to score 108.5 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the third highest projected point differential.

The Nets have been an exploitable matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Tonight’s game feels like a letdown spot for Charlotte, but with seeding on the line, I expect their starters to see a full complement of minutes. Marvin Williams is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, as he is dealing with an ankle injury. If he is unable to suit up, give a small boost to Cody Zeller and Al Jefferson.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.2 37.3 1.1 37.3 1.1
FPPG (FD) 36.9 41.0 4.1 30.9 -6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 23.1 24.1 1.0 20.9 -2.2

This is a rough slate of basketball. There are only a handful of great plays tonight and a ton of secondary options. Walker draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 24th against point guards this season. He should bounce back nicely, after putting up a dud against the Spurs last night at home. The main issue that I have with Walker is that this game is on the road. While it’s certainly possible for him to play well, we know that he averages five less fantasy points per game on the road than he does at home.

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,300
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 38.1 2.4 38.2 2.5
FPPG (FD) 31.5 38.0 6.5 38.1 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 17.6 20.1 2.5 20.4 2.8

Batum has played well over his last ten games, averaging 38 fantasy points in over 38 minutes per contest. There was a stretch there where his usage rate dipped below 15, but it is back above 20 over his last ten games. The Hornets are running their offense through Batum, which allows him to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. His price is a bit steep tonight, but he draws an excellent matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 21st against small forwards.

Marvin Williams
marvin-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.3 29.7 0.4 29.7 0.4
FPPG (FD) 24.2 27.4 3.2 25.1 0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 17.7 3.5 18.5 4.3

I’m not a Williams truther. In fact, I haven’t played him very much (if at all) this season. I value my minutes like I do gold and he only averages 29 on the season. Assuming he is able to suit up tonight, he makes a decent play against a very beatable Nets’ frontcourt. Williams comes into this game in good form, averaging 27.4 fantasy points over his last ten games.

Jeremy Lin
jeremy-lin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,300
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.8 22.1 -3.7 23.4 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 20.3 14.8 -5.5 16.6 -3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.4 17.6 -0.8 18.2 -0.2

After putting up 39 fantasy points against the Spurs last night, I expect Lin’s ownership to be inflated tonight. This seems like a good spot to fade him, but it’s hard to argue with his near-minimum price tag. He should see minutes in the low to mid-20s tonight against the Nets, who have not fared well against point guards or shooting guards. I slightly prefer Ray McCallum at a similar price point, but Lin isn’t a terrible play tonight.

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 19-50 — Home: 12-23 — Last 10: 2-8

The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Suns with 19 wins on the season. They have no reason to win another game this season, as it will only cost them ping-pong balls in the lottery. Brooklyn is a sizable underdog tonight against the Hornets, but they do catch them on the tail end of a back-to-back. The Nets are projected to score 101.5 points, which is 3.2 points above their scoring average.

The Hornets have become a top ten defensive team this season. They are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. While the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, the Nets have a fairly high team total. Brook Lopez missed Saturday night’s game against the Pistons with an illness, but is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will also return to the lineup, after missing three months with an ankle injury.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 34.3 1.2 33.2 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.3 36.4 5.1 41.8 10.5
TO-Adj. Usage 18.3 19.4 1.0 20.3 2.0

Young has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 41.8 fantasy points in just over 33 minutes per game. He is rebounding at a much higher rate and his usage is up during that stretch. He is an elite play again tonight, as the Nets take on the Hornets at home. The one position that Charlotte has really struggled to defend this season is power forward. They have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to the position.

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 34.7 0.8 34.3 0.4
FPPG (FD) 35.9 36.3 0.4 29.7 -6.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.5 21.7 -0.8 18.7 -3.9

Lopez has been inconsistent over the last month of play, but as long as he is cleared to play, he makes a solid tournament play tonight. The Hornets’ frontcourt is mediocre at best defensively and we know the type of upside that Lopez offers. He may also be a little more rested than his teammates, after missing Saturday night’s game with an illness.

Bojan Bogdanovic
bojan-bogdanovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,500
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.61 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 32.0 5.1 33.0 6.1
FPPG (FD) 16.4 27.9 11.5 35.2 18.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.4 20.9 5.5 25.2 9.8

I would typically have a tough time paying $5,000+ for Bogdanovic, but options are limited tonight and he comes into this game in great form. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 27.9 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. At a similar price point, I prefer Michael Beasley against the Thunder tonight, but Bogdanovic is an interesting pivot in tournaments.

Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat New Orleans Pelicans
miaminba Vegas Total 205.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd -10.0 Vegas Sprd 10.0
Team Proj. 107.8 Team Proj. 97.8
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 99.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Toney Douglas Alonzo Gee Dante Cunningham Omer Asik
Opp. Season 20 26 14 17 29 Opp. Season 2 3 16 4 6
Last 3 Weeks 27 27 19 26 15 Last 3 Weeks 5 7 15 2 18

Miami Heat

Record: 40-29 — Road: 17-16 — Last 10: 7-3

The Heat have won seven of their last ten games and are currently slotted in the three-seed in the Eastern Conference. They can’t afford to lose though, as they are only one game away from dropping down to the sixth seed. Miami is a 10-point favorite tonight against the Pelicans in New Orleans. The Heat are projected to score 107.8 points, which gives them the highest projected point differential at +8.5.

The Pelicans have been an easy target for DFS purposes this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We can give a sizable boost to the Heat offense as a whole. I am a little weary of using Dwyane Wade tonight. The Heat have been looking for a spot to get him some rest and they should be able to build a big lead early against the Pelicans’ Junior Varsity team.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.22 FP/Min:1.30
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.8 29.7 0.9 29.2 0.4
FPPG (FD) 35.1 38.5 3.4 33.5 -1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 18.4 2.9 17.5 2.0

Whiteside hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he is still one of the best FP/min players in tonight’s slate. On the season, he is averaging 1.22 FP/min on FanDuel and 1.30 FP/min on DraftKings. It’s hard to imagine anyone on the Pelicans stopping Whiteside down low and while I don’t like to predict triple-doubles, this is one of those games where it’s a real possibility. He should eat up the likes of Omer Asik and Kendrick Perkins down low.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 34.7 1.8 34.0 1.1
FPPG (FD) 26.9 35.0 8.1 35.6 8.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.4 21.7 3.3 22.4 4.0

Dragic is one of those players that always stands out as a good play, but that often gets overlooked because of how many great plays there are at point guard on a nightly basis. That shouldn’t be a problem in tonight’s small four game slate. Dragic has played well recently, averaging 35 fantasy points over his last ten games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 20th against point guards.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,100
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 33.4 1.4 32.1 0.1
FPPG (FD) 23.3 30.8 7.5 29.7 6.5
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 16.4 1.4 16.9 1.9

Deng is an excellent tournament play tonight and a borderline cash game target as well. Even in this small slate, I expect his ownership to be low. He draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans and he won’t have to deal with Anthony Davis, who is out for the season. Deng comes into tonight’s game in great form, averaging 30.8 fantasy points over his last ten games.

Josh Richardson
josh-richardson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.63 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.7 27.8 10.1 29.5 11.8
FPPG (FD) 11.1 21.6 10.5 26.5 15.4
TO-Adj. Usage 11.9 13.9 2.1 15.5 3.6

Richardson has gone from being a great tournament play to being a borderline cash game option. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 21.6 fantasy points in close to 28 minutes per contest. He has made at least three three-pointers in five of his last six games and his price has yet to reflect his recent level of production. He could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight in a potential blowout against the Pelicans.

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 26-43 — Home: 18-16 — Last 10: 3-7

The Pelicans are decimated. They continue to lose starter after starter after starter. They limp into tonight’s game against the Heat as 10-point underdogs. They are only projected to score 97.8 points, which gives them the lowest team total and the lowest projected point differential on the board tonight. While that’s obviously a concern, someone on the Pelicans is going to have to put up some fantasy points tonight.

The Heat are a team that we generally try to avoid targeting players against. They play at a snail’s pace and they are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Pelicans announced that Anthony Davis is out for the season. Ryan Anderson is also out for tonight’s game, which means we should see major minutes for Omer Asik, Luke Babbitt, and Dante Cunningham. Norris Cole is listed as questionable. When he eventually returns to the lineup, he will cut into the minutes of Toney Douglas and Tim Frazier.

Elite Plays

Omer Asik
omer-asik-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,500
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.1 15.9 -1.2 17.5 0.4
FPPG (FD) 12.0 10.8 -1.2 14.0 2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 7.8 8.3 0.5 11.0 3.1

You know we are winding down the NBA season when Asik is listed as an elite play. I generally try to avoid chasing points in DFS, but this pick has more to do with sheer attrition. With Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out, the Pelicans need Asik to play 25-30 minutes. He doesn’t have a ton of upside in terms of his offensive skill set, but he is a good rebounder that can block shots. At close to minimum price, he is a nice punt at center.

Secondary Plays

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$8,200
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.14
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.9 34.3 6.4 32.7 4.8
FPPG (FD) 29.7 35.2 5.5 28.2 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 25.0 25.7 0.7 22.7 -2.3

If the Pelicans were facing any other team (besides the Spurs or Jazz), I would have Holiday listed as an elite play. Using the awesome Court IQ tool, Holiday has a usage rate of 32 when Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon, and Tyreke Evans are off of the floor this season. He also averages 1.20 FP/min in that scenario. Holiday is a borderline elite play tonight, but he’s far from a must play thanks to an elevated price point and a tough matchup against the Heat.

Toney Douglas
toney-douglas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.9 27.5 9.6 29.2 11.3
FPPG (FD) 14.0 22.6 8.6 29.1 15.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.9 17.1 1.2 17.3 1.4

Using the same assumptions in the Court IQ tool, Douglas has a usage rate of 21 when Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon, and Tyreke Evans are off of the floor this season. He also boasts a FP/min of 0.90 under those assumptions. As long as Norris Cole is out again tonight, Douglas offers good upside at his price point. The matchup is the only thing holding him back from being an elite play.

Tim Frazier
tim-frazier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 9.1 24.4 15.3 24.4 15.3
FPPG (FD) 6.2 27.8 21.5 27.8 21.5
TO-Adj. Usage 13.2 19.0 5.8 19.0 5.8

Frazier has really played well since joining the Pelicans, scoring 33, 19, and 31 fantasy points in his first three games with the team. His minutes have been inconsistent, but he should see 25+ tonight against the Heat, especially if the game gets out of hand early. Frazier is a nice pivot from Ray McCallum in tournaments, as I expect their ownership to be vastly different.

Dante Cunningham
dante-cunningham-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,600
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.50 FP/Min:0.53
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 31.2 8.4 28.8 6.0
FPPG (FD) 11.5 15.7 4.3 15.7 4.3
TO-Adj. Usage 8.6 8.7 0.1 10.2 1.6

Game log watcher are going to see that Cunningham scored 30 fantasy points against the Clippers the other night. While he could honestly see upwards of 40 minutes again tonight, I do not expect a repeat performance. He has a usage rate under ten this season and we can’t expect him to score 19 actual points against a tough Heat defense. I will likely be fading Cunningham tonight, but he’s my favorite of the three Pelicans’ small forwards (Luke Babbitt and Alonzo Gee).

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

Houston Rockets Oklahoma City Thunder
houstonnba Vegas Total 223.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 223.5
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 106.5 Team Proj. 117.0
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 99.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 23 20 10 8 4 Opp. Season 13 24 30 29 20
Last 3 Weeks 22 6 26 27 6 Last 3 Weeks 11 30 17 12 26

Houston Rockets

Record: 35-35 — Road: 16-20 — Last 10: 6-4

The Rockets have won six of their last ten games, but are not guaranteed a playoff spot in the Western Conference. They hold a slim one game lead over the Jazz for the eighth and final playoff spot. The Rockets will have their hands full tonight against the Thunder. They are listed as 10.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 223.5 points. The Rockets are projected to score 106.5 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board.

The Thunder have been a neutral matchup this season. They are ranked between tenth and 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The main injury to monitor here is James Harden. He is dealing with an ankle injury and missed Monday’s practice. While he made it through shoot-around this morning, he is listed as a game-time decision. If Harden is ruled out, that would obviously change the entire landscape of this slate and would give a major boost to the rest of the Rockets’ lineup.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,400 Salary:$10,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.7 37.8 0.1 35.7 -2.0
FPPG (FD) 46.8 48.8 2.0 43.4 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 28.8 1.4 25.1 -2.3

Harden has yet to miss a game this season. Even though he is listed as a game-time decision, I expect him to play tonight against his former team. The Rockets could very easily miss the playoffs and every game from here on out matters. Harden has a tremendous track record against the Thunder. In his last seven meetings against them, he has scored 52, 59, 37, 57, 60, 56, and 55 fantasy points. In other words, he has reached or exceeded value in six of their last seven meetings.

Michael Beasley
michael-beasley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.29 FP/Min:1.34
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.9 17.9 0.0 23.1 5.2
FPPG (FD) 23.0 23.0 0.0 27.5 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 26.8 0.0 23.3 -3.5

B-Easy aka Beasley has wasted little time getting acclimated to the NBA. After winning the MVP in China, the Rockets decided to give him a chance and he has paid them back already. Over his last four games, he has scored 30, 27, 26, and 35 fantasy points. His price has come up across the industry, but he is still one of my favorite values in this four game slate. If James Harden is out or limited in any way, Beasley may be asked to shoulder the load offensively.

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza
trevor-ariza-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 35.6 0.6 32.0 -3.0
FPPG (FD) 24.7 24.2 -0.5 22.9 -1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.6 13.8 0.2 15.1 1.5

It’s hard to believe that Ariza is only a little more expensive than Beasley, yet I prefer B-Easy in this matchup. Ariza hasn’t shown great upside recently, averaging only 24.2 fantasy points over his last ten games. He should see minutes in the high-30s tonight, but he hasn’t been involved in the offense enough to warrant cash game consideration.

Patrick Beverley
patrick-beverley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.1 33.3 5.2 30.9 2.8
FPPG (FD) 20.1 24.9 4.8 21.8 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.4 12.5 -0.9 11.6 -1.8

Beverley is a borderline elite play tonight at point guard. Dollar for dollar, I still prefer Ray McCallum, but Beverley has shown great upside recently. He has had some monster fantasy outings and he may be asked to play 35+ minutes tonight, as they will need him to try to slow down Russell Westbrook. Beverley has scored at least 22 fantasy points in three of his last four meetings against the Thunder.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 48-22 — Home: 27-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Thunder have won six of their last ten games and look like they are locked into the three seed in the Western Conference. They are 10.5-point favorites tonight against the Rockets in what will be a fast-paced game. The Thunder are projected to score 117 points, which gives them the highest team total and the second highest projected point differential on the board.

The Rockets have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Thunder have an incredibly high team total and we have seen their stars play well even in games that feature large spreads. The best part about the Thunder is that even when they blow teams out, we know where their production is going to come from.

Elite Plays

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$10,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.29 FP/Min:1.40
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 35.7 -0.3 33.0 -3.0
FPPG (FD) 46.4 50.0 3.6 49.3 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 27.5 1.6 29.4 3.5

As long as James Harden is active, you really can’t go wrong with either Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook tonight. They are both in great spots at home and the Thunder have by far the highest team total on the board. Durant has been in great form recently, averaging 50 fantasy points over his last ten games. It also helps that small forward is rather thin, which makes Durant an even better play on sites where you have to roster two players at the position.

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.6 34.7 0.1 32.2 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 49.0 45.9 -3.1 45.9 -3.2
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 26.5 -1.9 27.3 -1.1

Westbrook has a tougher matchup than Kevin Durant does on paper, but we shouldn’t let that affect our judgment. These two have similar floors, but Westbrook has the higher ceiling. He should dominate a game that will largely be played in transition. In his last three meeting against Houston, he has scored 69, 48, and 55 fantasy points.

Secondary Plays

Enes Kanter
enes-kanter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,400 Salary:$5,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.6 20.8 0.2 24.6 4.0
FPPG (FD) 22.5 26.4 4.0 29.7 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.4 21.3 2.0 21.3 2.0

Kanter’s worst game in his last eight was against the Sixers – the night that everyone was targeting him. He has now scored at least 26 fantasy points in seven of those eight games, topping the 30 fantasy point mark five times. There is always the potential for Kanter to put up a dud since he rarely sees more than 25 minutes, but he is one of the top targets at center in this short slate.

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Los Angeles Lakers
memphisnba Vegas Total 203.5 lalakersnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ray McCallum Tony Allen Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Ryan Hollins Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 28 28 19 28 Opp. Season 11 4 15 11 5
Last 3 Weeks 23 15 16 9 19 Last 3 Weeks 18 11 20 18 25

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 41-30 — Road: 16-19 — Last 10: 4-6

The Grizzlies have somehow won six of their last ten games, even though they have had to bring in players off the street. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, but they do draw a nice matchup against the Lakers. The Grizzlies are projected to score 103.3 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board and 4.1 points above their scoring average.

The Lakers are always one of the best teams to target players against in daily fantasy. On the season, they are ranked 26th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Mike Conley, Brandan Wright, and P.J. Hairston are all expected to miss tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Zach Randolph
zach-randolph-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.5 34.0 4.5 33.0 3.5
FPPG (FD) 27.3 36.2 8.8 44.4 17.1
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 23.3 3.0 25.8 5.4

Randolph didn’t play particularly well last night against the Suns, yet he still finished with 35 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action. He draws an even better matchup tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked 19th against centers and 26th in rebounding differential. I was a little concerned about the back-to-back for Randolph until I looked at his splits. In ten B2B situations, he is averaging 25 fantasy points per contest, which is only a small decline from his season average of 27.3.

Ray McCallum
ray-mccallum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.63 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 10.5 24.1 13.6 23.8 13.3
FPPG (FD) 6.6 14.4 7.7 14.1 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 13.8 15.4 1.6 16.6 2.9

The signing of Jordan Farmar may hurt McCallum’s long-term fantasy appeal, but he is expected to draw another start tonight. Even if he only sees 25 minutes of action (like last night), he should be able to exceed value against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.8 32.3 4.5 33.1 5.3
FPPG (FD) 21.5 28.0 6.5 30.3 8.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 21.4 6.4 22.0 7.0

Barnes seems like he is a little too expensive, but given the lack of options at small forward, he is in play in all league formats. He has really played well given his increased role in the offense, averaging 30.3 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws one of the top matchups on the board.

Tony Allen
tony-allen-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,700
Position:SG Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 30.6 5.2 30.5 5.1
FPPG (FD) 17.8 24.9 7.1 21.8 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 17.8 4.5 16.6 3.4

I always love targeting Allen in fast-paced games against teams that tend to turn the ball over often. He is at his best when he can rack up steals and then get out and score in transition. Allen has seen a major boost in minutes, usage, and fantasy production over his last ten games, yet his price is still less than $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 14-55 — Home: 9-25 — Last 10: 3-7

The Lakers have lost seven of their last ten games and are now 14-55 on the season. While many will say that they have no reason to win another game the rest of the season, there is a five-game gap between them and the next closest team. They can technically win four more games without it impacting the number of ping-pong balls that they will get in the lottery. The Lakers are listed as 3-point underdogs tonight against the Grizzlies. They are only projected to score 100.3 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Grizzlies are not as good defensively as they were earlier in the season, but they still play at a very slow pace. If you look at their DvP rankings over the last three weeks, they have been a mediocre matchup for fantasy production. Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. The Lakers are giving him a 50-50 chance of playing. That doesn’t mean a whole lot though, as they gave him a 75% chance of playing the other night and he ended up sitting that game out. At this point, it’s difficult to trust anyone on the Lakers. Over their last five games, there hasn’t been a single player that has averaged more than 30 minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

D’Angelo Russell
d-angelo-russell-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 30.1 2.4 27.6 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 23.2 29.4 6.3 25.3 2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 24.0 3.8 23.1 2.9

Russell is the only Lakers’ player that is on my radar tonight and I am going to label him strictly as a GPP play. For whatever reason, Byron Scott refuses to give him consistent minutes. He could end up playing 35 minutes tonight, but only if he is playing well. For that reason, he should not be used in cash games.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious