NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, October 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-25 01:21:20

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Spread		14.0					Vegas Spread		-14.0
			Implied Team Total		96.8					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.9					Pace Projection +/-		-2.3
Projected Starters	Jerian Grant	Justin Holiday	Paul Zipser	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez		Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	23	8	20	2	20		Adj. DvP	12	21	18	25	23
DRPM	-0.53	-0.77	1.57	1.37	1.93		DRPM	0.45	0.32	-0.09	N/A	0.24

Chicago Bulls

Notable Injuries

Kris Dunn (Out)

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to wash out the bad taste left in my mouth from last night’s slate. It shaped up to be such a great stars/scrubs night, but the stars didn’t perform up to expectations. As much as I’d like to, I can’t get all of the picks right. Let’s get back on track tonight with a six-game slate that starts a half-hour later than normal. The Bulls are decimated by injuries right now and it’s not like they had the most talented roster to begin with. They are one of three teams that has yet to win a game this season. As a 14-point underdog on the road against the defending Eastern Conference champions, they may have to wait another game before picking up their first victory.

It’s rare that we can already spot a team that is in full tank mode this early in the season, but the Bulls clearly don’t want to win. Say what you want about the new lottery setup, but there will still be a few teams that tank each season. While the Cavaliers have a defense that we can exploit, I’m not sure Bulls have enough talent on offense to keep this game competitive. They currently have an implied total of only 96.8 points, which is the lowest of the slate. Add in the potential for a blowout and we have ourselves an ugly environment for fantasy production.

The good news is that the Bulls don’t have much of a reason to sit their starters in a blowout. It’s not like they are saving anyone for the playoffs or afraid that someone is going to roll an ankle in garbage time. Unless the game gets truly out of hand (20+ points in the third quarter), I expect the Bulls’ starters to see their usual complement of minutes. While I don’t have a ton of interest in Chicago tonight, Justin Holiday makes an intriguing tournament play. He has a 23% usage rate this season and will likely draw the defense of Dwyane Wade and/or J.R. Smith.

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Holiday

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Derrick Rose (Out)
J.R. Smith (Questionable)

The Cavaliers are 2-1 on the season, but it feels like they are off to a slow start. Perhaps it was the 21 point loss to an Aaron Gordon-less Magic team the other night at home. They should be able to bounce back tonight against a Bulls’ team that LeBron James could compete with on his own. The Cavaliers are listed as 14-point favorites with an implied total of 110.8 points. In potential blowout situations, I like to look at a number of factors. The first of which is whether or not the team is in the front end of a back-to-back, which the Cavaliers are. The second is whether or not the team is full of veterans that don’t need to play late in games. The answer to that is also yes. If this game gets ugly, Tyronn Lue will be quick to pull his starters.

The decision on whether to roster or fade the Cavaliers is one that will likely decide your fate in many contests. Personally, I’m not sure the Bulls have enough talent to keep this game within striking distance. In a small slate, we can’t afford to have our star players rest the entire fourth quarter. For that reason, LeBron James and Kevin Love are a full fade for me in cash games. I will likely hedge my fade by using them in a tournament lineup or two, but this feels like a spot where Cleveland takes care of business early and starts preparing for their game tomorrow night.

I’m more intrigued by the role players from Cleveland. With Derrick Rose out, Iman Shumpert played 31 minutes off the bench in their last game. Granted, the game got out of hand late, but they clearly don’t want to give Jose Calderon more than a handful of minutes. Shumpert makes a decent value play on DraftKings at $3,700. Jae Crowder is also on my radar on DraftKings at $4,700. He doesn’t have the highest usage rate in this offense, but he is a good rebounder that can rack up blocks and steals.

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – LeBron James (GPP), Kevin Love (GPP), Jae Crowder (DK), Iman Shumpert (DK)

Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		229.5					Vegas Total		229.5
			Vegas Spread		5.0					Vegas Spread		-5.0
			Implied Team Total		112.3					Implied Team Total		117.3
			Pace Projection +/-		4.0					Pace Projection +/-		9.0
Projected Starters	D’Angelo Russell	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Timofey Mozgov		Projected Starters	D.J. Augustin	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	27	11	14	29	16		Adj. DvP	24	23	13	28	22
DRPM	-3.28	-1.05	-1.20	-0.61	2.26		DRPM	-2.42	-2.68	1.09	1.36	0.90

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

Sean Kilpatrick (Out)

The Nets have won two games in a row, including a win over this Magic team last week. There is a decent chance that this is the last time this season where they are above .500 in the standings. They come into tonight’s game as 5-point underdogs in what should be one of the fastest-paced games on the schedule. The Magic are ranked fifth in pace of play and the Nets are ranked second, so there will be plenty of possessions in this one. In their meeting last week, the two teams combined to score 147 points in regulation.

The spread for this game is a little closer that I originally anticipated, but the Magic are short-handed and the Nets’ young players have gotten off to a nice start this season. D’Angelo Russell is going to be a boom or bust type of player all year, but one that we can load up on in tournaments. He has a massive 31% usage rate this season, which is the fourth highest of any starter in this slate. We know that the Nets don’t want their players to see more than 30 minutes on a regular basis, but his price is reasonable enough that he can exceed value. He draws an excellent matchup against D.J. Augustin, who was one of the worst point guard defenders in basketball last season (-3.28 DRPM).

With Jeremy Lin out, Allen Crabbe and Caris LeVert should average minutes in the upper 20s moving forward. Crabbe has been slightly more productive on a per-minute basis, but LeVert has a higher usage rate (23%) and is averaging more fantasy points per game (27). The two project pretty similar for me, so I would go price shopping on the sites that you are playing on. Crabbe is the better buy on FanDuel, while LeVert makes more sense on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Trevor Booker are both averaging 1.15 FP/min this season, but they are stuck in a timeshare at power forward. While they are both healthy, they are GPP darts at best.

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.5 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (GPP)

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (Cash), Allen Crabbe (FD), Caris LeVert (DK & FDRFT)

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Elfrid Payton (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Probable)

Before looking at tonight’s pricing, I figured it was going to be a chalky Magic stack type of evening. Luckily, the sites gave the Magic the pricing bump that should come with a matchup against the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked second in pace, 29th in points allowed per game, and 27th in defensive efficiency. They are basically the perfect matchup because they push the temp and give up a lot of easy baskets to their opponents. The Magic come into the game with an implied total of 117.3 points, which is the highest of the slate.

With Elfrid Payton on the shelf, D.J. Augustin will draw another start at point guard. In his spot start the other night, he played 26 minutes and scored 34 fantasy points. There are times when we can automatically plug in the backup point guard, but I’m not sure this is one of them. Augustin’s price is way up across the industry and there’s a good chance that he plays less than 30 minutes. Sure, the matchup is fantastic, but he basically needs 30 fantasy points to reach value. In this offense, I’m not sure Augustin is a fantasy point per-minute type of player.

Aaron Gordon is expected to return to the lineup tonight, which will cut into the minutes and/or usage from Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Jonathan Isaac, and Jonathon Simmons. Fournier is my favorite of the four, but he’s basically priced out of consideration on FanDuel ($7,000). Ross is still affordable on DraftKings at $4,400. He may not play 30+ minutes, but he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he’s not afraid to shoot if he’s open. For now, Simmons and Isaac can both be avoided in all formats.

The Nets have improved their rebounding differential this season, but this is still an exploitable matchup for both Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. People will be hesitant to play Gordon in his first game back from injury, which gives us an opportunity to target him in tournaments at low ownership. Vucevic has been incredibly efficient this season. While I’ve always been a fan of his game on the offensive end of the floor, his FP/min of 1.62 is unsustainable. He’s still viable on DraftKings ($8,300), but is an easy pass on FanDuel ($9,800).

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 121.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 111.5 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier (DK), Terrence Ross (DK & FDRFT), Aaron Gordon (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (DK)

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

New York Knicks							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Spread		9.0					Vegas Spread		-9.0
			Implied Team Total		99.3					Implied Team Total		108.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Ramon Sessions	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	7	2	29	9	14		Adj. DvP	29	1	22	1	28
DRPM	-2.16	-0.10	N/A	1.59	2.81		DRPM	-1.47	-1.34	-1.35	1.66	-0.91

New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

Frank Ntilikina (Out)

The Knicks are one of three teams without a win this season. While they may not be as bad as the Bulls, it’s pretty close. They come into tonight’s game as 9-point underdogs against the Celtics in Boston. This figures to be an average-paced game and Boston is currently ranked inside the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Knicks’ implied total of 99.3 points is the third lowest of the slate, only higher than the Jazz and Bulls.

The Knicks are not a talented team, but there are some intriguing plays here if they manage to keep this game close. The fact that the spread is only nine gives me hope. All I ask is that the Knicks keep the game within 12-15 points in the fourth quarter. New York’s offense basically flows through three players right now — Tim Hardaway, Kristaps Porzingis, and Enes Kanter. Hardaway has already burned a lot of bridges in DFS, but he had two of the worst possible matchups to start his season. He was locked down by Andre Roberson and Avery Bradley. We should give him the benefit of the doubt. All I see is a player averaging 32 minutes per game with a usage rate of 21%. This is a great time to buy low on Hardaway, especially on FanDuel where we are required to play two shooting guards.

Kristaps Porzingis has the second highest usage rate (35%) of any starter in tonight’s slate and he is averaging 36.5 minutes per game. Coach Jeff Hornacek said that Porzingis might get some minutes at center tonight to help matchup against the Celtics’ small-ball lineups. His salary feels a little inflated, but that’s only if you compare it to last season. This is a completely different Knicks’ offense and Porzingis is the focal point. Enes Kanter makes a lot of sense tonight as well. I like targeting Kanter against under-sized frontcourts that don’t rebound well. The Celtics certainly fit that description and Kanter is off to a nice start with the Knicks, averaging 27 fantasy points per game.

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway, Kristaps Porzingis (GPP), Enes Kanter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (Cash), Enes Kanter (Cash)

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Smart (Questionable)

The Celtics have not had the start to the season that they were hoping for. Between injuries and poor play on the court, it hasn’t been pretty. Luckily, they face a Knicks’ team that prides itself in giving their opponents confidence. Even though this doesn’t project to be a fast-paced game, this is still a good spot for the Celtics’ offense. The Knicks are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Celtics’ implied total of 108.3 points is eight points higher than their season average.

Kyrie Irving has underwhelmed in his first three games without LeBron James and he is still averaging 39 fantasy points per contest. He is shooting 37% from the floor and has committed ten turnovers in three games, yet he’s still averaging 39 fantasy points. Fade him if you must, but I’m going to gobble up all of the Kyrie shares I can get my hands on. He has one of the highest usage rates in the slate and one of the best matchups to boot. The fantasy appeal of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Terry Rozier all hinge on the availability of Marcus Smart. The problem is that even if Smart is out, the salaries for those three have gone way up.

Aron Baynes drew the start at center the other night. While the 22 fantasy point outing was encouraging, he only played 13 minutes. If he starts again tonight, this is a good opportunity to fade him in hopes that his ownership is inflated. Al Horford is the only frontcourt option that deserves consideration here. While he’s not really a big that the Celtics throw the ball to in the post in hopes that he can create his own shot, I’m not in love with his matchup against Kristaps Porzingis. Horford’s jump shots might not be as open as they usually are.

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), Jaylen Brown

Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Minnesota Timberwolves
			Vegas Total		219.0					Vegas Total		219.0
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		104.0					Implied Team Total		115.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.9					Pace Projection +/-		3.6
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis		Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	28	15	21	17	19		Adj. DvP	25	26	28	21	4
DRPM	-0.24	1.86	-2.73	2.10	-1.71		DRPM	-1.67	1.64	-2.76	1.69	1.92

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Out)

The Pacers have been involved in a couple of shootouts already this season. In their three games, they are averaging 115 points and giving up 119 points. If that trend continues tonight, it will be good news for both the Pacers and Timberwolves from a fantasy perspective. The issue is the high spread (11 points). With no Myles Turner for Indiana, this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. As far as the matchup goes, the Wolves are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and tenth in rebounding differential. Minnesota has the pieces to be a good defensive team, but we haven’t seen it come to fruition yet.

Darren Collison has really played well in his first three games, averaging 33 fantasy points in 31 minutes of work. With Myles Turner out, he may see a slight bump in usage and we know that Jeff Teague isn’t exactly an elite on-ball defender. Victor Oladipo is priced as much as C.J. McCollum and Devin Booker, which is a little strange to see. It’s hard to argue with it though, as he is averaging 42 fantasy points per game with a massive 30% usage rate. The issue for me is his matchup against Jimmy Butler. Granted, they were both on different teams, but Oladipo only scored 22 and 20 fantasy points in his last two games against Butler.

The Wolves have one of the bigger frontcourts in the NBA. When you combine that with Myles Turner absence, there should be a lot of minutes for both Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis. We could call this a revenge game for Young, but that’s the case with about half the teams in the NBA. Young is a little too volatile to trust in cash games, but he has a high ceiling if you want to look at him in tournaments. Sabonis struggled in his first spot start (14 fantasy points in 28 minutes), but flourished against the Heat, scoring 40 fantasy points in 30 minutes. I’m a little worried about foul trouble defending Karl-Anthony Towns, but he’s priced under $5,000 in a decent matchup where he should play around 30 minutes.

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (DK), Thaddeus Young (GPP), Domantas Sabonis (GPP), Cory Joseph

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

None

The Timberwolves’ offense has yet to breakout, but they’ve faced three quality defenses in the Jazz, Spurs, and Thunder. This is by far their best matchup to date. On the season, the Pacers are ranked sixth in pace of play and in the bottom ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of 115 points, which is the second highest of the slate and ten points higher than their season average.

Whenever we have a spread that is larger than ten points, we need to consider the possibility of the game turning into a blowout. While the Wolves do play again tomorrow night, Tom Thibodeau has an extensive track record of playing his starters well into the fourth quarter of blowouts. In my eyes, it’s full steam ahead for the Wolves when it comes to DFS. Jeff Teague has a revenge game against his former team, but it’s worth noting that he has the second lowest usage rate of the five starters. That’s generally not what we want to see from a point guard. I wouldn’t rule him out completely, but he’s my fourth favorite option on the Wolves tonight.

Jimmy Butler has been quiet to start the season, but it usually takes time to adjust to new teammates. The minutes have been there (35, 39, and 39) and he’s taken more shots in every game (12, 14, and 17). He also knows Thibodeau’s offense from their time together in Chicago. This is a great spot to buy low on Butler, especially on DraftKings at a ridiculous price of $7,000. I will take him straight up over Victor Oladipo every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Andrew Wiggins leads the team in usage (28%), but relies on scoring for his fantasy production more than most. I’ll have some shares in tournaments, but I tend lean toward the multi-faceted players in cash games.

Karl-Anthony Towns is such a good play tonight that he gets his own paragraph. The Pacers are missing their best low-post defender in Myles Turner. Towns will get to face the likes of Domantas Sabonis and Al Jefferson. He has good splits at home throughout his career, he’s been heavily involved in the offense (24% usage rate), and he is underpriced on DraftKings ($8,600). All I ask from the fantasy gods tonight is to keep this game within striking distance.

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 119.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 112.0 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.1 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK & FDRFT)

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins (Cash), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD)

New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Portland Trail Blazers
			Vegas Total		220.0					Vegas Total		220.0
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		107.8					Implied Team Total		112.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		1.9
Projected Starters	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Dante Cunningham	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins		Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Maurice Harkless	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	9	14	15	4	1		Adj. DvP	14	30	30	12	21
DRPM	-1.39	-1.93	0.33	2.91	2.56		DRPM	1.40	-1.63	-0.47	3.65	0.57

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

None

The Pelicans are only 1-2 on the season, but they played the Warriors tough in a game that they probably should have won. They have already been in two shootouts and tonight’s game against the Blazers could be number three. Vegas clearly isn’t buying into the fact that the Blazers are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. I’m not buying into it either, seeing as how they faced two inefficient offenses in the Suns and Lakers. The Pelicans come into the game as 4.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 107.8 points.

You’ll be hard-pressed to find another team that has two players with a usage rate above 30% in the starting lineup. I can’t think of one off the top of my head and there certainly isn’t one on tonight’s schedule. DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis combine for a 65% usage rate, which is just silly. The Blazers have been tough on frontcourts so far this season and they do have two good low-post defenders in Al-Farouq Aminu and Jusuf Nurkic, but it’s hard to fade the Pelicans’ big men duo right now. Davis is averaging 63 fantasy points and Cousins is averaging 57 fantasy points in their first three games. Both are viable tonight on DraftKings, but Davis gets the slight edge on FanDuel with the limited options we have at power forward.

Outside of the two bigs, there isn’t a lot to love here. Jrue Holiday has struggled in his first three games and his usage (18%) has taken a hit ever since the Pelicans acquired Cousins. He does have some appeal tonight though, as targeting point guards against Damian Lillard and the Blazers has been a profitable strategy in each of the last few seasons. If you need a super cheap punt in tournaments, Jameer Nelson played 24 minutes in his first game with the team. He is the bare-minimum salary on DraftKings tonight.

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 95.0 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.5 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 14.3 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday, Jameer Nelson (DK)

Portland Trail Blazers

Notable Injuries

Noah Vonleh (Out)

The Blazers’ offense has been firing on all cylinders this season and they have yet to play at home, where they have historically been much more efficient. Tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans is a favorable one, as New Orleans is ranked 26th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Portland has an implied total of 112.3 points, which is the third highest in the slate. We are still early in the season, but I expect both of these teams to play above the league average in pace this season.

Jrue Holiday is an excellent on-ball defender (1.40 DRPM), but Damian Lillard is one of the toughest covers of any point guard in the NBA. He has a 28% usage rate this season and is averaging 46 fantasy points per game. The best part is that his minutes are down thanks to a couple of blowouts against the Suns and Lakers. Lillard’s price is a little steep on FanDuel ($9,900), but $8,400 on DraftKings is mighty appealing, especially in tournaments. I’m not Alvin Gentry (Pelicans coach), but I have to think the Pelicans will put Dante Cunningham on C.J. McCollum. If not, he is going to torch E’Twaun Moore. I suppose we have to like McCollum here, as New Orleans is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards.

Evan Turner and Maurice Harkless should both see minutes in the mid to upper 20s. I’m not going to talk you off of either player, but they don’t stand out as core plays for me in this slate. I do have some interest in the Blazers’ frontcourt. Al-Farouq Aminu could end up playing minutes in the low 30s if he can stay out of foul trouble. He is by far their best bet at slowing down Anthony Davis. At his price point, I’m willing to risk the potential foul trouble for the upside. It’s only a matter of time before Jusuf Nurkic has a breakout game. He is shooting a paltry 35% from the floor (50%+ in each of the last two seasons). If he continues to see this type of usage (31%), the monster game is coming. He has plenty of upside here, but DeMarcus Cousins draws as many fouls as anyone.

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 114.3 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard (DK), Al-Farouq Aminu, Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (FD & FDRFT), C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (Cash), Maurice Harkless (DK), Evan Turner (DK)

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