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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-22 02:25:48

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland Cavaliers
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 208.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 101.3 Team Total 106.8
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving DeAndre Liggins LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 26 11 2 12 DvP 5 16 23 20 12
DRPM -2.41 0.36 1.22 1.47 1.88 DRPM 3.78 -0.21 -0.61 -1.29 1.25

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks fell short in last night’s game against the Cavaliers and now get to face them again tonight, only this time the game will be in Cleveland. These two teams will be playing on tired legs and there is a decent chance that some players could be rested. The Bucks come into the game as 5.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 101.3 points. Cleveland isn’t the worst matchup on the schedule, but the fact that the Bucks have the fifth lowest team total and the fifth lowest projected point differential is concerning.

The way to beat the Cavaliers this season has been in the backcourt. Cleveland is ranked 21st against point guards and 26th against shooting guards, which makes sense with Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith being such bad defenders. Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored at least 51 fantasy points in each of his last four games. His ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet gives him a floor and a ceiling that very few players in the NBA have. He did play 44 minutes last night though, so we should expect Jason Kidd to monitor his minutes closely tonight. Matthew Dellavedova played 39 minutes last night and while he still has the revenge narrative brewing, I’d rather take a chance on Malcolm Brogdon, who has a bigger role in the offense. Jabari Parker is really starting to come into his own. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in three of his last six games and would benefit from an easier matchup if Kevin Love is ruled out again tonight. If Kidd decides to limit his starter’s minutes, we could see Mirza Teletovic get some extra playing time tonight. He is close to min-salary across the industry. The Bucks’ situation at center has been tough to predict all season. John Henson and Greg Monroe are both easy fades in DFS.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,200 $9,700 1.36 35.0 4.3 47.4 7.3 29.6% -3.7% 21 -2.41
Matthew Dellavedova $3,900 $3,800 0.67 28.6 1.3 19.3 -3.0 19.4% -3.1% 26 0.36
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,300 0.53 29.9 2.4 15.9 3.4 13.0% -0.2% 11 1.22
Jabari Parker $6,400 $6,600 0.95 33.0 2.9 31.4 5.4 25.5% -1.4% 2 1.47
John Henson $4,600 $4,100 0.94 20.6 3.7 19.4 4.5 17.0% 2.6% 12 1.88

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker

Secondary Plays – Matthew Dellavedova, Malcolm Brogdon, Mirza Teletovic

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers picked up a win against the Bucks in overtime last night, but LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both played at least 45 minutes. The last time we saw the Cavaliers play in a back-to-back, they ended up resting their big three. Make sure to keep your eye on the injury news throughout the day, as resting one, two, or all three of their superstars would obviously make a big impact in the slate tonight. I will point out that when they all sat against the Grizzlies last time, the Cavaliers announced it the night before and we have yet to hear anything of that nature today. The Bucks are a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked between ninth and 15th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

For our purposes, I am going to assume that James and Irving will play and that Kevin Love is a true game-time decision. If that changes and one of the big three is out, we need to give a big boost to the other two. If two of the big three are out, the one in the lineup would become close to a must play. And finally, if all three of them are out, we can basically target a number of guys on Cleveland for value and the night would turn into a stars and scrubs type of slate. Kyrie Irving has the most difficult matchup of the five starters, as Matthew Dellavedova is an excellent on-ball defender. We shouldn’t expect Irving to play more than 35 minutes tonight, but he’s still worth a look at his discounted price point. LeBron James is the top target at small forward if he is active. He’s had mixed results against Milwaukee this season with a 25 and a 60 point fantasy outing. If Love is able to suit up, he would make a great play considering the fact that he’ll be well rested while everyone else in the game would be playing on tired legs. The Bucks are also ranked 20th against power forwards this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $7,300 $7,500 0.99 34.7 7.1 34.4 10.4 30.4% -2.6% 5 3.78
DeAndre Liggins $3,500 $3,000 0.56 13.9 4.2 7.8 2.5 12.2% 1.9% 16 -0.21
LeBron James $10,200 $9,800 1.29 37.3 5.9 48.2 9.2 33.1% -2.6% 23 -0.61
Kevin Love $8,700 $8,200 1.20 32.2 0.9 38.7 14.7 26.3% 3.6% 20 -1.29
Tristan Thompson $4,800 $4,900 0.79 29.0 -1.8 22.8 -1.7 9.8% 3.5% 12 1.25

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson, DeAndre Liggins

Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Atlanta Hawks
minnesotanba Vegas Total 212.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- 2.2 Pace +/- -0.8
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 24 9 11 2 DvP 22 13 14 10 11
DRPM -2.69 -0.23 2.38 3.73 2.47 DRPM 0.48 -2.79 -2.43 2.71 -1.91

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves haven’t had a lot of success on the court this season, but there is a lot to be excited about in Minnesota (besides the awesome weather). This is a talented young core of players that should have plenty of wins in their future together. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on a Hawks’ team that has really struggled in the last few weeks. The Wolves are listed as only 4.5-point underdogs with the over/under set at 212.5 points. This will be a pace-up game for Minnesota, as Atlanta is ranked fifth in pace of play this season. The Wolves have an implied total of 104 points, which is the eighth highest in the slate and nearly identical to their season average.

Tom Thibodeau may run his players into the ground, but he is the perfect coach for trying to predict fantasy production. He was limiting his player’s minutes earlier in the year, but is back to being the Thibodeau that we’ve come to know and love over the years. Over the last four games, all five of the Wolves’ starters have averaged at least 35 minutes per contest. There isn’t another team in the NBA that is even close and there are a handful of teams that don’t have a single starter that averages 30 minutes a game. When we can project all of the starters to play 35+ minutes a night, we can make an argument for all five. I will be mixing and matching the Wolves throughout my tournament lineups and plan to use two or three of them in cash games. The matchup against the Hawks isn’t ideal, but the playing time more than makes up for it. The fantasy appeal of Karl-Anthony Towns hinges on the availability of Dwight Howard. If Howard is out, Towns becomes the top play at center in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $5,600 $5,800 0.74 31.4 6.0 23.2 8.4 17.1% 0.2% 29 -2.69
Zach LaVine $6,500 $6,800 0.78 37.9 3.6 29.4 5.5 23.1% 1.8% 24 -0.23
Andrew Wiggins $6,400 $6,800 0.83 36.8 3.8 30.6 7.0 27.1% -3.5% 9 2.38
Gorgui Dieng $5,500 $5,600 0.81 31.9 4.7 25.7 -0.9 15.7% -3.8% 11 3.73
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,000 $8,700 1.16 35.4 3.4 40.9 9.1 27.4% 6.2% 2 2.47

Elite Plays – Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns (if Dwight Howard is out)

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Gorgui Dieng

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have been in the Christmas spirit for weeks now, as they are handing out wins to their opponents left and right. If the regular season ended today, they would barely be in the playoffs. I expect them to turn it around eventually, but they need to start somewhere. They come into tonight’s game as 4.5-point favorites at home against the Wolves. This is an exploitable matchup in daily fantasy, as the Wolves are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. Dwight Howard is going to warm up before the game to see if he can suit up. Kyle Korver started in his place the other night, but against a big frontcourt of the Wolves, I would expect Mike Muscala to draw the start if Howard is unable to go.

Dennis Schroder has scored at least 34 fantasy points in nine of his last 11 games. He is finally taking that leap forward that we’ve been expecting all season. There are very few players that have shown this type of consistency in the last few weeks and Schroder should be considered an elite play in all formats tonight. He has a team-high true usage rate of 29.4% and a favorable matchup against Ricky Rubio and the Wolves, who are ranked 22nd against point guards. Kent Bazemore has scored 29 and 31 fantasy points in his last two games and should push for close to 30 minutes tonight. His price on FanDuel is too cheap to ignore, as he’ll likely be priced around $5,000 the next time we see him. Thabo Sefolosha is a solid value at small forward. He offers a high floor and he could see a few extra minutes tonight, as he’ll be tasked with defending Andrew Wiggins. Paul Millsap price has come up across the industry, but he becomes close to a must play if Dwight Howard is out again. As mentioned above, Mike Muscala would become an elite value play in the case that Howard sits.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,000 $7,000 0.95 30.6 3.0 29.1 4.6 29.4% -1.2% 22 0.48
Kent Bazemore $4,400 $5,100 0.78 27.0 3.8 21.1 4.7 21.4% -2.0% 13 -2.79
Thabo Sefolosha $4,400 $4,500 0.76 25.9 4.5 19.8 -2.7 14.3% -2.1% 14 -2.43
Paul Millsap $8,100 $7,900 1.08 33.2 0.5 35.7 0.0 24.3% 0.1% 10 2.71
Dwight Howard $8,000 $7,300 1.17 29.2 5.3 34.1 8.7 19.8% -4.0% 11 -1.91
Mike Muscala $3,500 $3,600 0.78 21.2 -7.3 16.5 -6.9 15.9% -1.2% 10 N/A
Tim Hardaway $4,100 $4,200 0.75 22.9 7.6 17.2 4.8 22.4% 0.2% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore (FD), Paul Millsap and Mike Muscala (if Howard is out)

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore (DK), Thabo Sefolosha, Paul Millsap (if Howard is active)

Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Detroit Pistons
memphisnba Vegas Total 185.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 185.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 89.3 Team Total 96.3
Pace +/- -3.4 Pace +/- -3.4
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen James Ennis JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 22 5 1 3 5 DvP 3 9 3 6 1
DRPM -0.87 0.62 0.36 -0.75 2.17 DRPM -0.44 1.74 0.76 1.14 2.24

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have done an incredible job of staying competitive while waiting for their best players to come back from injury. Chandler Parsons has been targeting tonight’s game for his return and it sounds like he is on track to return to the lineup. He will be limited in terms of minutes, but a nice addition to this roster. Memphis is playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing to the Celtics in overtime last night. The Grizzlies have been careful with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley this season and it’s worth noting that they both played at least 35 minutes last night. The Grizzlies draw a difficult matchup tonight against a Pistons’ defense that is ranked third in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. With an implied total of 89.3 points, the Grizzlies appear to be an easy fade in this eight game slate. Mike Conley draws the best matchup of the five starters, but I don’t feel comfortable recommending him as a cash game option. We’ve seen Memphis limit his minutes a number of times this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $6,900 $6,000 1.03 32.0 -1.0 33.1 -5.4 29.4% 0.7% 22 -0.87
Tony Allen $5,300 $4,800 0.78 27.7 7.4 21.6 5.3 17.9% -3.6% 5 0.62
James Ennis $3,800 $3,600 0.63 27.6 -10.9 17.5 -8.1 13.9% -1.7% 1 0.36
JaMychal Green $5,100 $5,100 0.73 29.8 -2.0 21.8 2.4 14.6% -1.2% 3 -0.75
Marc Gasol $8,100 $7,200 1.07 33.9 2.7 36.2 -3.0 28.2% 3.0% 5 2.17

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley (GPP)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Bulls in Chicago. If you haven’t heard the Stan Van Gundy postgame conference, I highly recommend it. They will look to bounce back tonight against the Grizzlies, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. This game projects to be the slowest-paced in the slate and the over/under is set at an extremely low total of 185.5 points. It’s hard to find an exploitable matchup here, as Memphis is ranked ninth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Reggie Jackson is worth a look in tournaments, but does have his upside capped by his minute restriction. Andre Drummond is also on my radar for GPPs. He has an awful matchup against Marc Gasol, but he is averaging 9.1 more fantasy points per game at home this season. He has also scored 48 and 49 fantasy points in his last two games against the Grizzlies at home.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,500 $5,100 0.87 25.7 0.1 22.4 0.8 30.2% -2.8% 3 -0.44
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,500 $5,000 0.74 33.1 -1.7 24.6 0.9 20.7% 2.9% 9 1.74
Marcus Morris $4,400 $4,800 0.69 31.9 -4.5 22.1 -12.9 19.8% -3.3% 3 0.76
Tobias Harris $5,400 $5,200 0.77 32.8 -2.7 25.3 -3.9 21.5% 0.5% 6 1.14
Andre Drummond $7,400 $7,100 1.18 29.7 -0.2 35.0 -10.6 22.0% -5.1% 1 2.24
Jon Leuer $4,800 $4,600 0.82 26.6 -0.6 21.9 6.3 17.3% 4.0% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Chicago Bulls
washingtonnba Vegas Total 208.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 102.5 Team Total 106.0
Pace +/- -1.7 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 13 17 22 16 DvP 10 6 5 19 19
DRPM -0.53 0.37 1.31 1.63 0.50 DRPM -0.45 -1.38 1.36 1.36 1.42

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are a lot like the Wolves in that they have a short rotation and are generally predictable when it comes to playing time. The more predictable, the better, especially for cash games. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on a Bulls’ team that is ranked fifth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. The difficult matchup helps explain why the Wizards have an implied total of only 102.5 points, despite scoring at least 105 points in five of their last six games. While the matchup isn’t great, the low spread helps. This game should stay close throughout, which means the starters should see their usual allotment of minutes.

Do you remember when John Wall came into the league and taught everyone how to Dougie? He needs to bring that back. He has been on an absolute tear this season, averaging 45 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 35.3%. The Bulls are ranked seventh in fantasy points allowed to point guards, but Rajon Rondo is a below-average defender. Wall continues to be an elite play in all formats, although it will be tough to squeeze in both Wall and Russell Westbrook. Bradley Beal is averaging 36.3 fantasy points in his last three games, but will likely draw Jimmy Butler defense. Otto Porter has been inconsistent of late, but if Butler takes Beal, that leaves Wade on Porter. Markieff Morris has burned everyone at least once this season, but he grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar plays in the slate. Marcin Gortat is a safe cash game option that should see minutes in the mid 30s, although I slightly prefer Robin Lopez dollar for dollar.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,700 $9,500 1.24 36.2 0.2 45.0 -0.6 35.3% -3.8% 7 -0.53
Bradley Beal $7,200 $6,900 0.92 34.9 -1.1 32.1 4.2 26.5% 3.4% 13 0.37
Otto Porter $5,700 $5,600 0.81 34.6 0.5 28.0 0.6 15.0% -0.1% 17 1.31
Markieff Morris $5,300 $5,100 0.78 31.4 -5.3 24.4 3.9 20.2% 3.6% 22 1.63
Marcin Gortat $6,300 $6,100 0.83 35.8 4.1 29.8 0.8 13.8% 0.8% 16 0.50
Kelly Oubre $4,000 $3,800 0.67 18.7 7.6 12.5 4.0 14.3% -0.5% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have looked great at times this season, but they have some bad losses on their resume. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 21st in defensive efficiency. Chicago comes into the game as 3.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106 points. Their team total is the seventh highest in the slate and 4.4 points above their season average. While this game may not have the highest over/under in the slate, it has sneaky shootout potential. I will have a few Wizards/Bulls stacks in tournaments.

Rajon Rondo big out against the Pistons came out of nowhere. Prior to that game, he was held under 22 fantasy points in four of his last five games. His ownership will likely be inflated tonight and his price has come up across the industry. I typically pull a complete fade in these situations and that is exactly what I will be doing tonight with Rondo. Dwyane Wade doesn’t have the minute upside that I like to see from players at his price point. Jimmy Butler is my favorite play here. Otto Porter has been good defensively this season, but the Wizards have historically struggled against talented wing players. Butler’s price has come down a bit and the Bulls have a high implied total. Taj Gibson is a decent buy-low candidate in cash games, but he wouldn’t crack my list of top five plays at power forward. Robin Lopez is one of my favorite plays in the slate, which sounds strange. His minutes typically go up against teams with a true center and we know that Marcin Gortat will play around 35 minutes. In his last two meetings against Gortat, Lopez has played 33 and 38 minutes and has scored 26 and 29 fantasy points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,000 $6,300 0.89 30.8 -2.9 27.3 0.0 21.7% 0.5% 10 -0.45
Dwyane Wade $7,000 $6,900 1.03 31.0 -4.4 31.8 -5.2 29.6% -2.0% 6 -1.38
Jimmy Butler $8,400 $8,500 1.13 36.1 -3.5 40.9 -10.1 28.9% -5.2% 5 1.36
Taj Gibson $5,100 $4,900 0.89 27.8 -6.8 24.9 -2.8 19.2% 3.1% 19 1.36
Robin Lopez $4,900 $4,700 0.82 28.4 -1.9 23.2 -4.8 16.3% 0.4% 19 1.42
Doug McDermott $3,600 $3,200 0.61 24.6 1.0 15.0 -1.0 16.7% -0.6% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Robin Lopez

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Taj Gibson

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder New Orleans Pelicans
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 210.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- 1.4 Pace +/- 2.0
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Anthony Morrow Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield E’Twaun Moore Anthony Davis Alexis Ajinca
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 21 18 27 22 DvP 24 3 15 16 6
DRPM -0.24 -2.92 -0.98 2.39 0.10 DRPM -0.69 -1.48 2.04 1.58 1.65

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are still without Victor Oladipo, but they have played well as a team in his absence. Well, I suppose the team has done a nice job of getting out of Russell Westbrook way. Tonight they head to New Orleans (just got back from there) to face the Pelicans in what should be one of the top games to target in this slate. The spread is set at 2.5 points with an over/under of 210 points. The Pelicans have not been great defensively, ranking 23rd in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. Oklahoma City has an implied total of 106.3 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate.

Russell Westbrook deserves more. He has played so well that he should be NorthEastSouthWestbrook. My new nickname for him is NESWestbrook. You can also refer to him as Beastbrook, Bestbrook, or RoboBrook. Whatever you call him, he should be in your lineups tonight against the Pelicans. Jrue Holiday used to be an elite defender, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He has a negative Defensive Real Plus-Minus score and the Pelicans are ranked 27th against point guards. Andre Roberson is playing close to 35 minutes per game with Victor Oladipo out, but he hasn’t done much with his increased playing time. He’s a decent value in cash games, but his upside is limited. Steven Adams should see around 30 minutes against a Pelicans’ frontcourt that is ranked 22nd against centers and 27th in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,500 $12,600 1.63 35.2 -1.8 57.6 2.2 45.5% 1.8% 27 -0.24
Anthony Morrow $3,500 $3,400 0.55 16.9 5.7 9.4 -0.1 15.7% -5.6% 21 -2.92
Andre Roberson $3,800 $4,100 0.57 31.7 3.7 18.1 -2.7 10.7% 1.1% 18 -0.98
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,100 0.63 21.1 -3.6 13.3 -1.8 14.8% 3.1% 27 2.39
Steven Adams $5,200 $5,200 0.82 29.9 -0.8 24.4 1.5 15.9% 1.0% 22 0.10
Enes Kanter $4,900 $4,300 1.15 18.9 -3.2 21.8 0.1 25.3% 3.4% 27 N/A
Jerami Grant $3,500 $3,600 0.64 20.4 5.9 13.0 3.0 13.6% -0.4% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Andre Roberson

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans may not have many wins this season, but they are routinely one of the top teams to target in DFS. They play at an above average pace and they aren’t particularly good defensively. They also have one of the best players in the NBA in Anthony Davis. New Orleans is listed as a 2.5-point underdog tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked right below the league average in points allowed per game. The Pelicans have an implied total of 103.8 points tonight, which is the ninth highest in the slate and 1.1 points above their season average.

Jrue Holiday seems a little too expensive for a player averaging only 28.8 fantasy points per game on the season, but is worth a look in tournaments tonight. The best way to attack the Thunder is with opposing point guards. Russell Westbrook has a DRPM of -0.69 and the Thunder are ranked 24th against point guards this season. Tyreke Evans is expected to play limited minutes tonight, which cuts into the fantasy appeal of Buddy Hield, E’Twaun Moore, Tim Frazier, and Langston Galloway. For now, we can avoid all of the fringe role players from the Pelicans. Anthony Davis is averaging over 60 fantasy points per game at home this season. The Thunder don’t really have anyone that can match up against him, as he should have an advantage over Damantas Sabonis in the post and an advantage over Steven Adams on the perimeter. I’m sure a lot of lineups will have Davis and Westbrook paired tonight and for good reason.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,200 $6,700 0.96 30.0 -0.3 28.8 -6.8 27.6% -4.0% 24 -0.69
Buddy Hield $3,800 $3,800 0.68 18.9 5.0 12.9 2.4 21.9% -0.9% 3 -1.48
E’Twaun Moore $3,700 $3,400 0.70 25.5 -2.9 17.9 -1.8 19.5% -4.4% 15 2.04
Anthony Davis $11,200 $10,900 1.39 37.4 -8.2 52.1 -17.6 31.4% 2.1% 16 1.58
Alexis Ajinca $3,800 $3,200 0.83 14.8 5.7 12.2 7.9 16.0% 2.1% 6 1.65
Tim Frazier $5,800 $5,600 0.88 30.4 -5.2 26.6 -2.3 22.4% -0.2% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (Cash)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious