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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-11 17:38:17

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs Orlando Magic
Article Image Vegas Total 203.0 Article Image Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 105.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 96.20 Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 23 6 19 19 9 Opp. Season 5 1 1 4 4
Last 3 Weeks 25 14 27 25 8 Last 3 Weeks 9 5 1 28 10

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 44-8 — Road: 16-8 — Last 10: 8-2

The Spurs are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they are still listed as 8-point favorites tonight against the Magic in Orlando. The Spurs are projected to score 105.5 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The Magic have been solid defensively this season, but their play over the last three weeks tells another story. During that stretch, they are ranked 25th or worse against point guards, small forwards, and power forwards. In somewhat surprising news, Tim Duncan is expected to return to the lineup tonight.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

If you had the Spurs in cash games last night, you probably cleaned up. Leonard had a monster outing against the Heat, finishing with 45 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action. While we always have to be a little cautious with the Spurs in back-to-backs, that doesn’t really apply to Leonard. He actually averages more minutes (33.2) in back-to-backs than he does in any other rest scenario.

FD — $7,300 — SF
DK — $7,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 34.3

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge has been in great form recently, averaging 41.6 fantasy points in his last five games. He also draws a nice matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 19th against power forwards. The issue is that Tim Duncan will be back in the lineup. Aldridge still deserves a look, but he’s more of a GPP play tonight.

FD — $7,300 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 25.3
Min/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 41.6

Orlando Magic

Record: 23-28 — Home: 14-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Magic have been playing a little better recently, thanks to back-to-back wins over the Hawks. Tonight they draw one of the worst matchups on the board, as they take on the Spurs. The Magic are only projected to score 97.5 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board.

As mentioned above, the Spurs are a very tough matchup to target for fantasy production. The main injury to monitor here is Tobias Harris. All five starters have seen a nice boost in his absence, so if Harris is ruled out, there will be a couple of interesting fantasy options tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Aaron Gordon

Gordon had a nice outing against the Spurs a few weeks back, scoring 12 points and grabbing 16 rebounds. If Tobias Harris is ruled out tonight, I have no problem going back to the Gordon well again tonight. His minutes are always in flux, but the production has been steady and we know the type of upside that he provides.

FD — $5,800 — PF
DK — $5,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 26.6

Elfrid Payton

I originally had Payton listed as an elite point guard play on DraftKings tonight, but with C.J. Watson expected back, I’ll bump him down to a secondary play. Payton is coming off of two huge outings against the Hawks and in terms of matchups, he has the most favorable one of the five Magic starters.

FD — $5,700 — PG
DK — $5,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 32.9
FP/Game — Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 26.6

Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Sacramento Kings Philadelphia 76ers
Article Image Vegas Total 216.5 Article Image Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 110.5 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 102.30 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Marco Belinelli Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Willie Cauley-Stein Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 22 18 27 28 30 Opp. Season 25 30 23 29 25
Last 3 Weeks 30 10 16 11 28 Last 3 Weeks 21 27 20 27 16

Sacramento Kings

Record: 21-31 — Road: 8-18 — Last 10: 2-8

The Kings have lost eight of their last ten games and the organization appears to be on different pages when it comes to their head coach George Karl. Despite the turmoil, they draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers in Philadelphia. The Kings are projected to score 110.5 points, which is the third highest team total on the board.

When it comes to matchups, there are few more favorable than the Sixers. They are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 30th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Kings’ offense sees a major boost as a whole, especially when you consider the fact that the spread is only set at 4.5 points.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

It’s hard to label a superstar as a must play when there are 12 games on the schedule, but how on Earth do we fade Cousins tonight against the Sixers? His price has come down a bit thanks to a bad outing again the Cavaliers, but he’s in a prime spot to bounce back tonight. In his two meetings against the Sixers last season, he averaged 36 points and 20 rebounds. There isn’t a ton of value tonight, but I’ll be doing everything I can to get him into my cash game lineups.

FD — $10,600 — C
DK — $11,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 27.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 46.2 | Last Five Games: 44.6

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

Rondo has played well over his last five games, averaging 37.9 fantasy points in 34.5 minutes per contest. I like his matchup against the Sixers, but there are so many great options at point guard that I don’t consider him a must play tonight.

FD — $8,800 — PG
DK — $8,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 37.9

Marco Belinelli

On FanDuel, it may be tough to avoid going the cheap route at shooting guard with Belinelli and E’Twaun Moore. Ben McLemore is not expected to play tonight, which should lead to Belinelli seeing 30+ minutes against a Sixers’ defense that struggles to defend all five positions on the floor.

FD — $3,900 — SG
DK — $4,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 26.2 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 21.6

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 8-44 — Home: 5-20 — Last 10: 3-7

The Sixers have lost seven of their last ten games, but have a good chance at picking up a win tonight. They host the visiting Kings in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. The Sixers are projected to score 106 points, which is a whopping 11.2 points higher than their season average.

The Kings have been everyone’s favorite team to target players against in the last few weeks. They are ranked 30th in points allowed per game, 29th in fantasy points allowed per game, and they are ranked 23rd or worse against all five positions on the floor. This is a great spot for the Sixers as a whole, but I hate that their starters have basically all been averaging under 30 minutes over the last five games.

Elite Plays

Ishmael Smith

Smith’s minutes are up over his last five games, which is encouraging. During that stretch, he is averaging 35.5 fantasy points in 31.7 minutes per contest. His usage is also way up recently. Tonight he draws one of the top matchups on the board, as the Kings have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to point guards.

FD — $7,000 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 27.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 35.5

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

I’m torn on Noel tonight. I really want to play him against this Kings team that turns the ball over a lot and can’t seem to defend the pick and roll. I could easily see Noel posting a double-double with a few blocks and steals. The only concern is his minutes. If you feel confident that he will play 30+ minutes, treat him as an elite power forward option.

FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $6,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.7 | Last Five Games: 12.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 29.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 30.6

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Indiana Pacers
Article Image Vegas Total 200.0 Article Image Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 102.0
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 6 19 4 14 16 Opp. Season 14 15 20 26 13
Last 3 Weeks 23 2 8 21 7 Last 3 Weeks 20 15 28 4 23

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 26-26 — Road: 7-17 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets have won seven of their last ten games and have been one of the streakiest teams in the NBA this season. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers. Despite what should be a fast-paced game, the Hornets are only projected to score 98 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board.

The Pacers have played some great defense this season, ranking ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. I’m a little worried about the Hornets’ low team total, but there are two players that have been in great form coming into this game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

Walker has played well recently and even with Nicolas Batum back in the lineup, his usage rate hasn’t taken a dip. Over his last five games, Walker is averaging 39 fantasy points in 35.2 minutes per contest. He’s an interesting tournament play tonight, but there are safer options for cash games. Walker has some glaring home/road splits throughout his career.

FD — $8,700 — PG
DK — $8,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 25.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 39.0

Nicolas Batum

I expect everyone to be on Batum tonight. He has been on fire recently, averaging 40.4 fantasy points over his last five games. While I like the fact that he has played at least 39 minutes in four of those five outings, he will likely be defended by Paul George tonight. This could be a good spot to fade Batum in tournaments.

FD — $7,000 — SG
DK — $7,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.8 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 39.3
FP/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 40.4

Indiana Pacers

Record: 28-24 — Home: 17-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have won five of their last ten games and are now four games above .500 on the season. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Hornets at home. The Pacers are projected to score 102 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The Hornets have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 11th and 21st in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While this isn’t a bad matchup by any means, there really aren’t any standout fantasy options on the Pacers tonight. With such a full slate, I’m not going to force any of them into my lineups.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Myles Turner

Some may look to Paul George tonight, but he’ll have two good defenders in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on him. The only Pacers’ player that is really on my radar is Turner, who is averaging 27 fantasy points over his last five games. He draws a nice matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked 26th against power forwards.

FD — $5,700 — PF
DK — $6,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 27.0

Los Angeles Clippers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Boston Celtics
Article Image Vegas Total 209.0 Article Image Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 101.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 8 21 25 22 Opp. Season 3 11 10 7 23
Last 3 Weeks 5 22 10 12 25 Last 3 Weeks 1 4 5 13 17

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 35-17 — Road: 18-9 — Last 10: 8-2

The Clippers have won eight of their last ten games and are now an impressive 35-17 overall. Tonight they head to Boston in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Clippers are projected to score 104 points, which is nearly identical to their average on the season.

The Celtics have been stout defensively, but their quick pace of play allows us to target players against them. Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers remain out for the Clippers, which gives a boost to Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and Jamal Crawford. Paul Pierce is expected to be back in the lineup, after sitting out the second half of a back-to-back on Monday night.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

If Jordan was priced in the mid-$7,000 range, he would be my go-to center play tonight. However, his price is way up across the industry (especially on FanDuel) thanks to a terrific five game stretch where he averaged 43.3 fantasy points. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Celtics. Jordan is one of my favorite center plays tonight on DraftKings, but I struggle to pay that premium on FanDuel when you can spend a little more and take DeMarcus Cousins.

FD — $8,500 — C
DK — $7,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 12.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 37.3
FP/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 43.3

Chris Paul

I expect very few people to roster Paul tonight. While I will not be using him in cash games, I’m always interested in Paul when his ownership is low. Tonight’s game against the Celtics should be one of the fastest paced games of the night and Paul is basically matchup-proof without Blake Griffin in the lineup.

FD — $9,500 — PG
DK — $9,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 39.1 | Last Five Games: 37.8

Boston Celtics

Record: 31-23 — Home: 16-10 — Last 10: 8-2

The Celtics have won eight of their last ten games, including last night’s contest against the Bucks. Tonight they are listed as 1-point favorites against the Clippers at home. The Celtics are projected to score 105 points, which is right around their season average.

The Clippers have played some great defense ever since Blake Griffin went down with his injury. They are now ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. In addition to the difficult matchup, the Celtics have been tough to predict individually with their deep rotation.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Avery Bradley

I’m not interested in Isaiah Thomas against Chris Paul, Jae Crowder has been wildly inconsistent, Evan Turner doesn’t see enough minutes, and there are four bigs splitting minutes at the four and five. Bradley is the only Celtics’ player on my radar tonight. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 24.2 fantasy points in 34.7 minutes per contest.

FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 16.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 24.2

Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Denver Nuggets Detroit Pistons
Article Image Vegas Total 208.5 Article Image Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 97.60 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Stanley Johnson Marcus Morris Anthony Tolliver Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 12 10 3 15 12 Opp. Season 26 27 14 23 18
Last 3 Weeks 11 16 21 6 27 Last 3 Weeks 15 20 12 26 11

Denver Nuggets

Record: 21-32 — Road: 10-17 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nuggets have won five of their last ten games and are only listed as 5.5-point underdogs tonight against the Pistons in Detroit. Even though the Pistons have an underrated defense, the Nuggets are still projected to score 101.5 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

As mentioned above, the Pistons are better defensively than they are given credit for. On the season, they are ranked 13th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Nuggets are expected to be without Jameer Nelson and Darrell Arthur tonight. One other note – after seeing a major bump in minutes, Nikola Jokic has played a combined 31 over his last two games. Until he sees close to 30 minutes per night, he is a GPP flier at best.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Danilo Gallinari

It should be a nice slate tonight, as there are very few targets that I expect to be heavily owned. There are a lot of good plays at each position, which should lead to a more balanced level of ownership. Gallinari is one of those good, but not great plays. He draws a fairly tough matchup against the Pistons, but has been in good form, averaging 31.8 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $7,200 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.5 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 31.8

Emmanuel Mudiay

As long as Jameer Nelson is out again, Mudiay should be a safe bet to see minutes in the low to mid-30s. He hasn’t been the most efficient player on the offensive end of the floor, but he is improving. Over his last five games, he is averaging 27.2 fantasy points in 32.5 minutes per contest.

FD — $5,600 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 27.2

Detroit Pistons

Record: 27-26 — Home: 16-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pistons have lost six of their last ten games, but draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets at home. This should be a pace-up game for Detroit, as evidenced by their team total of 107 points. Not only is that the fifth highest team total on the board, but it is also five points higher than their season average.

The Nuggets have not fared well on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pistons will be without Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and potentially Ersan Ilyasova tonight, which would give a major boost to both Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson

Jackson’s price has come down enough that I’m willing to list him as an elite point guard target tonight against Denver. Jackson has been in relatively good form, scoring at least 28 fantasy points in four of his last five games. The matchup is also in his favor, as the Nuggets are ranked 28th against point guards this season.

FD — $6,600 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 27.7

Marcus Morris

With KCP out and Ersan Ilyasova questionable, Morris and Stanley Johnson should both see a major boost in minutes and/or usage tonight. They are both in great spots and if you are having a tough time deciding between the two, just take the one that is cheaper on the site that you are playing on – Morris on DraftKings and Johnson on FanDuel.

FD — $5,600 — SF
DK — $5,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 35.7
FP/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 27.3

Stanley Johnson

Johnson has made the most of his opportunity to start, averaging 25.2 fantasy points over his last five games. I expect him to play 35+ minutes tonight against the Nuggets in what should be an uptempo game. Johnson’s price on DraftKings is a little high, but he should be one of the most popular small forward targets on FanDuel.

FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $6,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 25.2

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

Drummond hasn’t shown us that high ceiling recently, but he has had a high floor, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. I prefer DeMarcus Cousins (FanDuel), DeAndre Jordan (DraftKings), or Pau Gasol (DraftKings) in cash games, but will have a few GPP lineups with Drummond.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $8,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 40.0 | Last Five Games: 34.2

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious