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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-22 04:14:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Miami Heat at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Washington Wizards
miaminba Vegas Total 197.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 94.40 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tyler Johnson Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Kelly Oubre Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 7 26 30 7 12 Opp. Season 4 2 20 2 9
Last 3 Weeks 12 23 27 3 18 Last 3 Weeks 19 3 17 5 14

Miami Heat

Record: 23-19 — Road: 8-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Heat haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, losing six of their last ten games, including an ugly loss to the Bucks last night. They now have to travel to Washington to take on the Wizards in the second half of a back-to-back. This is a favorable matchup, but the Heat’s team total is only slightly higher than their season average.

The Wizards have struggled defensively this season, ranking 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Heat will be short-handed again tonight. Beno Udrih, Goran Dragic, Josh McRoberts, and Chris Andersen have all been ruled out tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

Whiteside had another big fantasy outing last night, posting his fifth straight double-double. I like him to keep the streak alive tonight against the Wizards, but the matchup bumps him down to a secondary option. Marcin Gortat is an excellent low-post defender. I prefer Nikola Vucevic over Whiteside tonight, at least in cash games.

FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 14.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 43.5

Dwyane Wade

If you played Wade last night, then he likely left a mark in your DFS funds. He only played 21 minutes against the Bucks. The good news is that he is in a great bounce-back spot tonight, as the Wizards have been one of the worst teams at defending wing players this season. Wade is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight.

FD — $7,100 — SG
DK — $6,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 28.3
FP/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 25.6

Tyler Johnson

Speaking of favorite tournament plays, Johnson is right there with Wade on that list. He also let a lot of people down last night, scoring only 11 fantasy points against the Bucks. The positive was that he played 34 minutes. He should see a similar number of minutes tonight with Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih out. Don’t let one game cloud your judgment on Johnson.

FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $5,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 32.1
FP/Game — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 21.2

Washington Wizards

Record: 19-21 — Home: 9-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games and are now only two below .500 for the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat, who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Wizards are projected to score 100.8 points, which is the ninth lowest team total on the board.

As mentioned above, the Heat own an elite defense. On the season, they are ranked fifth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Wizards are also going to be short-handed tonight, as Otto Porter, Drew Gooden, and Kris Humphries have all been ruled out. John Wall and Marcin Gortat would be in play on a shorter slate, but there are better options at their respective positions tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Orlando Magic
philadelphianba Vegas Total 197.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 95.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 99.60 Team Pace 96.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 21 7 11 17 11 Opp. Season 16 20 29 29 30
Last 3 Weeks 23 2 15 23 28 Last 3 Weeks 13 26 19 17 25

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 5-38 — Road: 2-22 — Last 10: 3-7

The Sixers are a completely different team with Ish Smith at the helm. While they have only won five games this season, they are no longer a team that we need to avoid due to expected blowouts. The Sixers are only 7-point underdogs tonight against the Magic. Philadelphia is projected to score 95.3 points, which is a point higher than their season average.

The Magic have been stout defensively this season, but have shown some chinks in their armor recently. They are now ranked 13th or worse in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Nik Stauskas was originally listed as probable, but has since been ruled out of tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Ishmael Smith

I watched the Knicks’ broadcast on Monday afternoon when they took on the Sixers. They said that Smith was slicing and dicing and like a hot knife through butter at least 20 times. While it was repetitive, I couldn’t have agreed more. It’s nearly impossible to stay in front of Smith and the Magic don’t have any elite shot blockers to defend the rim. Even at his elevated price point, he is still one of the top point guard options in this slate.

FD — $7,200 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 28.2
Min/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 40.5

Robert Covington

Covington has played well over his last five games, averaging 22.2 fantasy points in 28.5 minutes. With Nik Stauskas out, Covington could see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Magic. He is an elite play on FanDuel, but more of a secondary option on DraftKings at his elevated price point.

FD — $4,800 — SF
DK — $5,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 22.2

Secondary Plays

Jahlil Okafor

Despite being the Sixers’ best player on the floor in the first three quarters against the Knicks, Okafor sat the entire fourth quarter and in overtime. He has been terrific offensively recently, but we can’t project him for more than 30-32 minutes. Fire him up in tournaments, but look elsewhere for cash games.

FD — $6,500 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 31.9

Orlando Magic

Record: 20-20 — Home: 12-9 — Last 10: 3-7

The Magic continue to drop in the Eastern Conference standings, as they have now lost seven of their last ten games. They have a good chance to bounce back tonight against the Sixers at home. The Magic are projected to score 102.3 points, which is 3.7 points higher than their average on the season.

The Sixers are always one of the top teams to target players against in daily fantasy, especially when we expect the game to be competitive. They are ranked in the bottom ten in all four of the defensive categories listed above and they are ranked below the league average in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Dollar for dollar, Vucevic is my top target at center tonight. His minutes and production have both been up over his last five games and you can’t ask for a better matchup. The Sixers are ranked dead last against centers this season and they have one of the worst rebounding differentials.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 35.3

Evan Fournier

Fournier hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but do you know what cures that? A matchup against the Sixers. With Victor Oladipo out, he should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against a defense that is ranked 20th against shooting guards this season. At $4,800 on FanDuel, I am extremely bullish on Fournier tonight.

FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 15.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 20.8

Secondary Plays

Elfrid Payton

Payton was one of my favorite point guard options on Monday. While he only played 27 minutes, he sat the entire fourth quarter. With Victor Oladipo out again tonight, look for Payton to see minutes in the mid-30s. We know the type of upside that he provides, especially in a matchup against the Sixers.

FD — $5,700 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 23.5
FP/Game — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 15.6

Aaron Gordon

There is speculation that Scott Skiles is considering moving Gordon to the starting lineup tonight. If he makes the move, Gordon becomes close to a must play against the Sixers. We could safely project him for at least 25 minutes, which would make him a top value considering his price and matchup.

FD — $4,200 — PF
DK — $4,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 20.5
FP/Game — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 20.0

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Boston Celtics Toronto Raptors
bostonnba Vegas Total 201.5 torontonba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 101.00 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 2 13 4 9 17 Opp. Season 1 4 24 25 16
Last 3 Weeks 20 10 3 11 21 Last 3 Weeks 9 8 26 30 10

Boston Celtics

Record: 22-20 — Road: 11-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Celtics have lost six of their last ten games, but are still two above .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on a talented Raptors team. The Celtics are only projected to score 99.3 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.

The Raptors have been terrific defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Celtics have a deep rotation, but they have been content playing small ball recently. This has led to big minutes for the likes of Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Jae Crowder.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Avery Bradley

Bradley has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25.8 fantasy points in 39 minutes per contest. They are going to need another heavy workload from him tonight, as he will be tasked with defending DeMar DeRozan. Bradley is a safe option in cash games tonight.

FD — $5,400 — SG
DK — $5,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 39.0
FP/Game — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 25.8

Toronto Raptors

Record: 26-15 — Home: 12-6 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and are now 26-13 on the season. They are listed as 3-point favorites tonight against the Celtics at home. While Boston has played solid defense, the Raptors are projected to score 102.3 points in this matchup.

The Celtics are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, but they play at such a quick pace that it hurts their fantasy points allowed (ranked 12th). The top targets on the Raptors have been their talented backcourt, but those are the two positions that the Celtics have been the best at defending this season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

I originally had Kyle Lowry listed as a secondary play as well, but given the matchup and wealth of options at point guard, I will be avoiding him tonight. DeRozan is not a must play by any means, but he comes into this game in good form, averaging 38 fantasy points over his last five games.

FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $8,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 26.2
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 37.3
FP/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 38.0

Utah Jazz at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Utah Jazz New York Knicks
utahnba Vegas Total 187.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 187.0
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 92.3 Team Proj. 94.8
Team Pace 93.40 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Trey Lyles Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 10 12 7 10 19 Opp. Season 10 6 6 3 5
Last 3 Weeks 11 9 5 25 23 Last 3 Weeks 4 27 4 1 6

Utah Jazz

Record: 18-23 — Road: 6-14 — Last 10: 4-6

The Jazz have lost six of their last ten games, as they continue to tread water while waiting for Derrick Favors to return from his injury. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Knicks in New York. The Jazz are only projected to score 92.3 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Knicks have been mediocre defensively this season, but given their slow pace of play, this is not a matchup that we want to go out of our way to target players in. The Jazz have a low team total and this game is projected to be played at the slowest pace of any game on the schedule. Derrick Favors participated in shoot-around, but is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

Gobert is finally seeing a full complement of minutes once again. While I think there are better plays dollar for dollar, Gobert is a nice tournament play tonight against the Knicks. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s against a team that is ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.

FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.3 | Last Five Games: 10.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 30.8

New York Knicks

Record: 21-22 — Home: 12-8 — Last 10: 6-4

The Knicks have played well recently, winning six of their last ten games. They have also been good at home, sporting a 12-8 record on the season. They draw a bad fantasy matchup tonight against the Jazz. The Knicks are only projected to score 94.8 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

Now that Rudy Gobert is back in the lineup, we can list their defense among the league leaders. They are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and second in fantasy points allowed per game. The big question mark with the Knicks tonight is Kristaps Porzingis. He left Monday’s game against the Sixers late in the fourth quarter with a foot injury. If he is unable to play tonight, give a boost to Carmelo Anthony, Arron Afflalo, and Derrick Williams. If Porzingis is able to suit up, I will likely fade the team altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE – Unless Kristaps Porzingis sits out. If that’s the case, Carmelo Anthony, Arron Afflalo, and Derrick Williams could all be considered secondary plays.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Brooklyn Nets
clevelandnba Vegas Total 197.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd -12.5 Vegas Sprd 12.5
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 92.3
Team Pace 95.10 Team Pace 97.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 28 23 19 18 27 Opp. Season 19 9 5 4 1
Last 3 Weeks 29 15 13 24 9 Last 3 Weeks 26 4 16 7 2

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 28-11 — Road: 13-9 — Last 10: 8-2

The Cavaliers are coming off of a terrible loss against the Warriors at home. They will look to get back on track tonight against the Nets. The Cavaliers are listed as 12.5-point favorites tonight on the road. While they do have a high team total, this game features the largest spread on the board.

The Nets have been one of the top teams to target players against in daily fantasy basketball this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. My biggest concern here is that this game could turn into a blowout. I won’t talk you out of playing LeBron James, Kevin Love, or Kyrie Irving, but none stand out as must plays in this full slate.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

Of the three superstars in Cleveland, Love is the only one that I am planning on having exposure to tonight and even with him, it will only be in tournaments. Love is just a little too cheap and he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 18th against power forwards this season.

FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 28.8

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 11-31 — Home: 7-15 — Last 10: 2-8

The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games to fall to 11-31 on the season. They draw one of the worst fantasy matchups on the board tonight, as they host the visiting Cavaliers. The Nets are only projected to score 92.3 points, which is tied for the second lowest team total on the board tonight.

The Cavaliers own a top three defense this season. They are ranked third in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. Throw in the fact that the Nets are 12.5-point underdogs and they become an easy team to avoid in tonight’s large slate.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Donald Sloan

You can easily fade the Nets altogether tonight, but if you feel compelled to roster a player here, Sloan could be worth a look in tournaments. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 23.7 fantasy points in 27.8 minutes per game. He also draws a nice matchup against Kyrie Irving, who has been burned by opposing point guards recently.

FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $4,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 12.7 | Last Five Games: 23.7

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious