NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-08 00:10:20

Jump to Page 1 2

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

We have an interesting slate for a Wednesday. There are typically at least ten games on the schedule, which makes it one of the best days to play NBA DFS. Tonight is a little different in that there are only seven games on the schedule. If the trade-off is that we regularly get five or more games on Thursday, I would be happy to see these slightly smaller slates on Wednesdays moving forward. FanDuel and FantasyDraft both decided to take the first game off of their main slates, so lineups will not lock until 8:00 PM ET. DraftKings has included the first game in their slate, so lineups will lock at 7:00 PM ET.

Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		199.5					Vegas Total		199.5
			Vegas Spread		-1.0					Vegas Spread		1.0
			Implied Team Total		100.3					Implied Team Total		99.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.9					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Cory Joseph	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	4	16	10	27		DvP	13	1	6	6	15
DRPM Rat.	19	1	26	7	17		DRPM Rat.	5	12	8	7	1

Utah Jazz

My Utah Jazz (I decided to claim them again since they are playing well) have won eight of their last ten games and have pulled within a single game of the eighth-seeded Nuggets. Utah draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked between tenth and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Jazz come into the game with an implied total of 100.3 points, which is the second lowest of the slate and 2.5 points below their season average.

Ricky Rubio has played well over his last five games, averaging 31 minutes and 30 fantasy points per contest. His matchup against the Pacers looks difficult on paper, but Cory Joseph is a significantly worse defender than Darren Collison. At a price of $6,500, Rubio deserves consideration in tournaments. Donovan Mitchell seems underpriced on DraftKings. While Victor Oladipo is an elite defender, the Pacers as a whole are ranked 19th in efficiency against shooting guards. Mitchell should log minutes in the mid to upper-30s at a discounted price point of $7,300.

Joe Ingles continues to play well, but doesn’t stand out as a great point per dollar option on DraftKings. Derrick Favors is listed as probable. He missed the game on Monday night, which gave a significant boost to Rudy Gobert (49 fantasy points in 37 minutes). With Favors back in the mix, Gobert seems a bit overpriced even though the best way to attack the Pacers is to target opposing centers.

Notable Injuries

Derrick Favors (Probable)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 102.7 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (13 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (11 of 14)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Rudy Gobert

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won seven of their last ten games and would host a first-round playoff series if the regular season ended today. They draw a difficult matchup against the Jazz, who are ranked 25th in pace of play, third in points allowed per game, and fifth in defensive efficiency. Even though they are playing at home, the Pacers come into the game with the lowest implied total (99.3 points) and the worst projected point differential (-7.2) of any team on the schedule.

With Darren Collison out, Cory Joseph has become a viable fantasy option. While he’s not the most productive per-minute point guard, he has averaged 36 minutes over his last five games. Unfortunately, his price has come up on DraftKings and the matchup is not in his favor. Victor Oladipo was priced over $10,000 less than two weeks ago, so an $8,300 price tag is enticing regardless of the matchup. Oladipo is a safe bet to play 35+ minutes, which is significant given the fact that he has averaged 1.24 fantasy points per minute this season.

Bojan Bogdanovic nearly carried me to a few GPP wins on Monday night, scoring 45 fantasy points at less than 5% ownership. While he’ll always hold a place in my heart, I will not be going back to the well tonight, especially at a price of $5,600. With Trevor Booker making his Pacers’ debut, I will be taking a wait and see approach with this frontcourt. There’s a decent chance that Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis will all average less than 30 minutes per game moving forward.

Notable Injuries

Darren Collison (Out)
Trevor Booker (Probable)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.4 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.3 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -7.2 (14 of 14)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – None

Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies							Chicago Bulls
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		102.3					Implied Team Total		105.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.7
Projected Starters	Kobi Simmons	Ben McLemore	Dillon Brooks	JaMychal Green	Marc Gasol		Projected Starters	Kris Dunn	Zach LaVine	Justin Holiday	Lauri Markkanen	Bobby Portis
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	23	27	14	25	21		DvP	15	23	12	11	1
DRPM Rat.	13	27	6	25	29		DRPM Rat.	23	15	17	28	10

Memphis Grizzlies

This is one of the strangest games on the schedule. The Grizzlies are basically signing players off the street, while the Bulls are getting in trouble with the league for resting their starters. From a matchup standpoint, the Grizzlies have the better draw. On the season, the Bulls are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite missing half of their team, Memphis has an implied total of 102.3 points, which is 3.3 points above their season average.

Kobi Simmons played well in his first start at point guard, scoring 27 fantasy points in 25 minutes against the Spurs. While Andrew Harrison, Tyreke Evans, and Mario Chalmers are all out again, Ben McLemore will be back in the lineup. I’m still confident that Simmons will play minutes in the mid-20s, but he may not be the primary ball-handler in this offense. I’m willing to pay a slight premium for McLemore over Simmons tonight, especially if we expect him to have lower ownership. Dillon Brooks is one of the worst per-minute starters in basketball, but is a safe bet to play 32+ minutes in a pace-up game against the Bulls.

JaMychal Green has been on a tear over his last five games, averaging 35 minutes and 39 fantasy points. He’s playing with a ton of confidence and he gets to face a Bulls’ team that is ranked 29th in efficiency and 25th in DvP against power forwards. Green is on my radar regardless, but I’d give him a significant boost if Jarell Martin is ruled out. If Martin is active, he becomes a borderline elite play on FanDuel at a price of only $4,700. Center is the thinnest position of the slate, which pushes Marc Gasol to the top of my list of potential cash game targets. Gasol’s minutes are back up and he has played well over his last five games, averaging 43 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Injuries

Andrew Harrison (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Out)
Mario Chalmers (Out)
Jarell Martin (Questionable)
Ben McLemore (Probable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 98.9 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (6 of 14)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben McLemore, Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green (if Martin is out), Jarell Martin (FD – if active)

Secondary Plays – JaMychal Green (if Martin is active), Kobi Simmons, Dillon Brooks

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls were warned by the NBA for resting Justin Holiday, Robin Lopez, and Jerian Grant. Basically, the league is saying that you have to be a little more subtle when tanking. Eventually, the association needs to figure out a better solution that doesn’t incentivize losing. The Bulls have a difficult matchup on paper, but this is a different Grizzlies’ team than we saw earlier in the season. The Bulls come into the game with an implied total of 105.3 points, which is 2.2 points higher than their season average.

After shoot-around, Justin Holiday told a reporter that he is going to play and that he is going to start. He also said that he doesn’t expect to come out and play 35 minutes. Given the fact that the Bulls want to develop Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, we should expect David Nwaba to head to the bench. Holiday’s appearance makes Nwaba and Denzel Valentine risky fantasy options. Holiday himself is dirt cheap across the industry, so hopefully we’ll get an update from a beat writer on how many minutes they expect him to play.

Dunn has a nice matchup against Kobi Simmons, who has not been a great on-ball defender this season. Dunn should be locked into his 30-minute role even with Holiday back in the lineup. Zach LaVine is still viable in tournaments, although we could see his minutes drop from the low to mid-30s to the 30-minute range. Lopez has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which makes Bobby Portis an intriguing tournament play. He is expected to draw another start at center and could push for 30 minutes.

Notable Injuries

Robin Lopez (Out)
Paul Zipser (Doubtful)
Justin Holiday (Active)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (9 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (8 of 14)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), Zach LaVine (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP), Justin Holiday (look for an update on his minutes)

Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons – 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		213.0					Vegas Total		213.0
			Vegas Spread		-5.5					Vegas Spread		5.5
			Implied Team Total		109.3					Implied Team Total		103.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.8
Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Malcolm Miller	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas		Projected Starters	Ish Smith	Reggie Bullock	James Ennis	Blake Griffin	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	7	27	22	6		DvP	7	3	4	8	16
DRPM Rat.	14	24	25	25	11		DRPM Rat.	3	22	12	13	14

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have won nine of their last ten games and own the best record in the Eastern Conference. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they have such a deep rotation that I’m not overly concerned about it. Their matchup against the Pistons is fairly difficult, as Detroit is ranked ninth in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. Toronto comes into the game with an implied total of 109.3 points, which is 2.7 points below their season average.

Kyle Lowry is cheap across the industry, but that’s largely thanks to his recent form. Over his last five games, he has averages 30 minutes and 30 fantasy points. Lowry provides nice upside at low ownership, but isn’t a core play in this slate. DeMar DeRozan is an intriguing play in all formats tonight on DraftKings ($7,500). He is small forward eligible and he draws a decent matchup against Reggie Bullock, who is a poor defender. The Pistons as a whole are ranked third in efficiency against shooting guards, but some of that was thanks to Avery Bradley earlier in the season.

OG Anunboy has been ruled out of tonight’s game and Delon Wright is questionable, which should open up a few extra minutes for Fred VanVleet and C.J. Miles. Keep an eye on the injury news as we get close to lock and bump up VanVleet and Miles if Wright is ruled out. Serge Ibaka was one of my favorite tournament plays the last time these two teams played each other. My reasoning was simple — he’s the Raptors’ best option to defend Blake Griffin. Ibaka scored 39 fantasy points in that game and only played 23 minutes thanks to a blowout. Jonas Valanciunas struggled in his last start against Andre Drummond, but has still averaged 30 fantasy points in their last six meetings.

Notable Injuries

OG Anunboy (Out)
Delon Wright (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (12 of 14)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK), Serge Ibaka (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), Serge Ibaka (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (FD GPP), Kyle Lowry (GPP), Fred VanVleet, C.J. Miles

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have lost eight of their last ten games and look like they will miss out on this year’s playoffs. After a disappointing year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them waive the white towel over the next few weeks. They have a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. It helps that the game is being played in Detroit though, as the Pistons have an implied total of 103.8 points, which is slightly above their season average.

Ish Smith has failed to score more than 22 fantasy points in any of his last four games. While the price is appealing, his form and matchup make him an easy fade in my eyes. At a similar price point, we can target D.J. Augustin, who gets to face the Lakers. Reggie Bullock could be worth a look tonight, especially if Stanley Johnson is ruled out. James Ennis would also see a small boost and would carry low ownership after being a popular value play on Monday night.

Blake Griffin has scored at least 39 fantasy points in each of his last three games, but draws a difficult matchup against Serge Ibaka. Griffin’s price is still affordable, but his volatility takes him out of cash game consideration. In his last two meetings against Jonas Valanciunas and the Raptors, Andre Drummond has put up 62 and 58 fantasy points. With center being the weakest position of the slate, Drummond deserves consideration in all formats. If the Pistons are going to keep this game close (only a 5.5-point spread), they will need a big game from their center.

Notable Injuries

Stanley Johnson (Questionable)
Luke Kennard (Probable)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 102.9 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (9 of 14)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin (GPP), Reggie Bullock & James Ennis (if Johnson is out)

Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		216.0					Vegas Total		216.0
			Vegas Spread		-6.0					Vegas Spread		6.0
			Implied Team Total		111.0					Implied Team Total		105.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.7					Pace Projection +/-		0.7
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	9	3	9	23		DvP	6	16	11	4	25
DRPM Rat.	8	26	25	3	5		DRPM Rat.	2	18	14	9	3

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games after beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City last night. Their matchup against the Bucks isn’t very appealing, as Milwaukee is ranked 24th in pace of play and 11th in points allowed per game. The Rockets are going to put up points in any matchup, but potentially not at the same rate we are used to seeing. They have an implied total of 111 points, which is only the fifth highest of the slate and three points below their season average.

Chris Paul put up a tidy 44 fantasy points in 32 minutes against the Thunder last night. While a matchup against Eric Bledsoe is far from ideal, Paul is still underpriced on both FanDuel ($8,100) and DraftKings ($8,000). I’m not as confident in Paul as I was last night, but he is on my short list of potential targets at point guard. James Harden grades out as a nice play on FanDuel, but is my fourth favorite superstar in the slate. With so much interest in Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, I will naturally end up with little or no exposure to Harden.

Ryan Anderson has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and one of the Rockets’ beat writers said that he doesn’t expect Joe Johnson to play. Trevor Ariza is a safe bet to play 35+ minutes tonight, especially since he’ll be tasked with defending Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ariza is viable in all formats, even though he’s not a flashy play. P.J. Tucker is a viable punt at small forward, as he should log close to 30 minutes again tonight. Clint Capela was one of the biggest duds of last night’s slate and ended up costing me on both sites. Rather than hold a grudge, I plan to go right back to the well tonight. The Bucks are ranked 28th in efficiency against centers and 26th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Injuries

Ryan Anderson (Out)
Joe Johnson (Questionable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 114.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (13 of 14)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Trevor Ariza (DK)

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza (FD), James Harden, P.J. Tucker

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games, but should be able to hang on to one of the last few playoffs spots in the Eastern Conference. While the Rockets have been solid defensively this season, Milwaukee is catching them in the second half of a back-to-back. The Bucks come into the game with an implied total of 105 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. While this game features two above-average defenses, the close spread (six points) makes it appealing for DFS.

Eric Bledsoe will likely garner some ownership tonight at point guard. With Malcolm Brogdon out of the lineup, Bledsoe has regularly played 35+ minutes and over his last five games, he has averaged 36 fantasy points. While I don’t hate the play, Chris Paul is an elite defender that I try to avoid whenever possible. At a similar price point, I would rather play Lonzo Ball at home against the Magic. Khris Middleton has struggled over the last couple of weeks, but his price has come down to $6,600 on FanDuel.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has an elite usage rate and is one of the best players in the NBA at filling up the stat sheet. He draws a pace-up matchup against the Rockets in a game that should be competitive throughout. While I don’t consider him a core play, I will have some exposure to Giannis in tournaments. John Henson could see a few extra minutes tonight with Tyler Zeller doubtful. Even though Clint Capela is a good defender, the Rockets as a whole have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to centers this season. Jabari Parker has played on a per-minute basis and should play 24-26 minutes at a price point of only $4,700 on DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Tyler Zeller (Doubtful)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (10 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (10 of 14)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton (FD), Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), John Henson (DK)

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (DK), Giannis Antetokounmpo (Cash), John Henson (FD), Eric Bledsoe (FD), Jabari Parker (DK)

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Sacramento Kings
			Vegas Total		224.0					Vegas Total		224.0
			Vegas Spread		-5.0					Vegas Spread		5.0
			Implied Team Total		114.5					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.2					Pace Projection +/-		3.0
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	Emeka Okafor		Projected Starters	De’Aaron Fox	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Justin Jackson	Zach Randolph	Skal Labissiere
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	15	18	19	29		DvP	20	26	25	20	14
DRPM Rat.	28	23	23	28	26		DRPM Rat.	23	2	30	1	16

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have truly surprised me over the last few weeks. They have won nine games in a row and have vaulted up to fourth place in the Western Conference. While this is the second half of a back-to-back, their matchup against the Kings more than makes up for it. On the season, Sacramento is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. The Pelicans have an implied total of 114.5 points, which is the third highest of the slate and 2.2 points above their season average.

Rajon Rondo didn’t see the floor much in the fourth quarter last night, but still put up 36 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action. I’m willing to go right back to the well tonight, as he will square off against De’Aaron Fox, who has been one of the worst on-ball defenders in basketball this season. Jrue Holiday has averaged 47 fantasy points over his last five games. While the price point is high, he should remain on your radar for tournaments. E’Twaun Moore is one of the best value plays available tonight. He should log 30+ minutes against a Kings’ team that does not defend the three-point line well (highest three-point percentage allowed in the NBA this season).

Anthony Davis looks like an NBA player that is messing around with a bunch of high school kids. He is making everything look so easy, averaging a ridiculous 65 fantasy points over his last five games. He’s close to a lock for me tonight on DraftKings ($11,300), but his salary on FanDuel ($13,000) is incredibly expensive. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember seeing anyone priced at $13,000 so far this season. For Davis to reach 5x, he needs to score 65 fantasy points. While he’s certainly capable of that and more, I wouldn’t consider him a lock play on FanDuel. Nikola Mirotic offers appeal in tournaments, but is too volatile to trust in cash games.

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 112.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.5 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (7 of 14)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.0 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (more so on DK than FD), Rajon Rondo, E’Twaun Moore, Jrue Holiday (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (Cash), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have lost seven of their last ten games. For those wondering, they do own their first round pick in the upcoming draft, so they have no incentive to win from here on out. While that’s a small concern, they draw the best matchup on the board. Since DeMarcus Cousins went down, the Pelicans have played at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. The Kings have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is massive. In fact, their team total is 10.3 points above their season average.

The Kings are one of my favorite teams to target tonight, especially in tournaments. De’Aaron Fox has played less than 30 minutes in back-to-back games, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not capable of playing 32-34 minutes in this dream matchup. Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged 32 minutes and 30 fantasy points over his last five games. He gets to face a Pelicans’ defense that is ranked 28th in efficiency against shooting guards. Buddy Hield is finally playing a full complement of minutes and is very affordable on DraftKings ($5,200). I will be mixing and matching these three guards throughout my lineups tonight.

The Kings’ frontcourt is a little tougher to predict, but Willie Cauley-Stein has been ruled out and Skal Labissiere is listed as questionable. There’s a good chance that we see extended playing time for both Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. Both players have averaged close to a fantasy point per minute this season and it’s not like the Pelicans are a particularly stout defensive team in the paint. I see Randolph and Koufos as elite tournament plays and I would even consider them in cash games if Labissiere is ruled out before lineups lock.

Notable Injuries

Willie Cauley-Stein (Out)
Skal Labissiere (Questionable)
Zach Randolph (Probable)

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 99.2 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (6 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 10.3 (1 of 14)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.6 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – De’Aaron Fox (GPP), Bogdan Bogdanovic (FD), Buddy Hield (DK), Zach Randolph (GPP), Kosta Koufos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox (Cash), Bogdan Bogdanovic (DK), Buddy Hield (FD), Zach Randolph (Cash), Kosta Koufos (Cash)

Jump to Page 1 2