NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, October 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-26 11:49:32

Jump to Page 1 2

NOTE: The Grind Down update can be found in the CourtReport Live Blog

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		208.0					Vegas Total		208.0
			Vegas Spread		1.0					Vegas Spread		-1.0
			Implied Team Total		103.5					Implied Team Total		104.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.7					Pace Projection +/-		-2.5
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Shabazz Muhammad	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Avery Bradley	Stanley Johnson	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	8	23	17	5		DvP	30	21	20	12	12
DRPM	-2.98	-1.13	0.19	-0.53	1.37		DRPM	-0.24	-2.92	-2.73	2.10	-1.71

After last night’s slate, I am ready to drown my sorrows with tonight’s ten game schedule. After hearing nothing of an injury all day, Jimmy Butler was ruled out after lineups locked. This led to a fury on DFS Twitter and many people threatening to quit playing the sport altogether. For the most part, I’ve been on Team No Late Swap. Many of us are busy at night and don’t want to be glued to our phones if we don’t have to be. That’s not to say that I’m not watching the scores most nights, but there are certainly times when it’s nice to set my lineups and put my phone away for the next few hours. I ended up with 100% exposure to Butler last night, so you can obviously tell how my night ended up. As far as the Anthony Davis injury goes, we can’t be mad about that one. He’s been made of glass his entire career and we should all know the risk behind using him as a core play.

Rather than yelling at the DFS sites for not having late swap, we should be asking for injury reports from NBA teams. This is basically the only sport (other than golf) where teams aren’t required to have some sort of injury report out well before the game starts. All it would have taken was for the Wolves to say that Butler was dealing with an illness and that his status for the game was up in the air. If we had that news beforehand, nobody would be up in arms over the late swap issue. Now, as far as late swap goes, I’d personally rather see an alternative solution to the problem. Whether it be selecting a player in the event of a late scratch or only being able to swap a player that is ruled out after lock. There are a lot of sharp people in this industry (both playing and working for the sites), so maybe, just maybe, we can come up with a solution to the problem instead of attacking each other at each and every turn.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (Out)

Now that my rant is over, let’s get into tonight’s slate. We have a good one on our hands with ten games on the schedule. After a bad loss at home against the Pacers, the Wolves will look to bounce back against the Pistons. This is far from an ideal game environment though, as the Pistons project to be one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. They are also ranked above the league average in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Wolves’ implied team total of 103.5 points is the seventh lowest in the slate, which isn’t great considering how much talent they have on the offensive side of the ball.

Jimmy Butler has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. I’m hoping for a speedy recovery, but at least we know that it’s bad enough that he probably shouldn’t have been on the floor last night. Shabazz Muhammad should draw another start at small forward in Butler’s absence. In 31 minutes last night, he scored 21 fantasy points and easily paid off his bare-minimum salary. Jamal Crawford should also see a few extra minutes here, as he played 29 last night against the Pacers.

With Butler out, I expect Andrew Wiggins to draw the defense of Avery Bradley. He’s been an elite defender throughout his career and he’s already shut down some good wing players this season. Wiggins is so dependent on scoring for his fantasy production that he’s a tough sell for me in this matchup. The best way to attack Detroit is at point guard. Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith have two of the worst DRPMs of any point guards in basketball. Jeff Teague isn’t going to rate high in any projection model tonight, but the matchup is certainly in his favor and his price is reasonable on DraftKings ($6,200). Karl-Anthony Towns is also viable on DraftKings ($8,600), although it’s worth noting that Andre Drummond held him in check in their two meetings last season (36 FP/game).

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Shabazz Muhammad

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Reggie Bullock (Out)

The Pistons play much better at home than they do on the road, especially on the defensive end of the floor. With both of these teams ranking in the bottom half of the league in pace, we could see a drag it out type of game that is played largely in the half-court. This game doesn’t exactly scream fantasy production to me, but at least the Wolves have struggled defensively. On the season, they are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 28th in defensive efficiency. The Pistons implied team total of 104.5 points is slightly higher than their average points per game (102.5).

Reggie Jackson has taken over the point guard position with his excellent play in the first four games. During that stretch, he is averaging 35 fantasy points per game with a usage rate of 27%. Darren Collison had a big game against the Wolves last night and we know that Jeff Teague is a below-average defender. Jackson will never be a core play for me in a large slate as long as Ish Smith is healthy, but we can certainly look his way in tournaments. I think it’s about time for me to eat some crow when it comes to Avery Bradley. The peripheral statistics haven’t been there this season and he hasn’t shot the ball well in Stan Van Gundy’s offense. For now, I will be avoiding Bradley in all formats.

Stanley Johnson could play 40 minutes a game and I’d still have little to no interest in him. He is averaging 0.55 FP/min with a usage rate of 12% this season. Thanks, but no thanks. Tobias Harris is a player that I like to target after a few bad games when his price creeps down below $6,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings. I have a hard time paying this price for him, especially in a difficult matchup against Taj Gibson. I hate to say it, but Andre Drummond is one of my favorite plays of the slate. He’s underwhelmed thus far, yet he is still averaging 38 fantasy points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns is a great young player, but he still has a lot of work to do on the defensive end of the floor. He has the lowest DRPM (-1.71) of any center on the schedule tonight and it’s not even close. In their two meetings last season, Drummond scored 53 and 45 fantasy points. Give me ALL the Drummond tonight.

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.8 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 112.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP)

Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		220.5					Vegas Total		220.5
			Vegas Spread		-3.5					Vegas Spread		3.5
			Implied Team Total		112.0					Implied Team Total		108.5
			Pace Projection +/-		2.7					Pace Projection +/-		-2.5
Projected Starters	James Harden	Eric Gordon	Luc Mbah a Moute	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Jerryd Bayless	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	23	7	14	25		DvP	14	20	2	9	9
DRPM	N/A	-0.47	-1.80	4.38	2.30		DRPM	-1.81	-0.13	2.19	-0.16	1.25

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Chris Paul (Out)
Trevor Ariza (Out)
Nene Hilario (Out)

The Rockets haven’t had the best of luck when it comes to injuries so far this season. They will be without three players tonight in Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza, and Nene Hilario. Even short-handed, the Rockets are listed as 3.5-point favorites against the Sixers in what should amount to a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. Both of these teams like to push the tempo and they are both below-average when it comes to points allowed per game. The Rockets have an implied team total of 112 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate.

James Harden has yet to have a breakout game this season. His usage rate of 34% is good to see, but his FP/min of 1.27 is a bit low by his standards. The minutes and usage should both be there tonight against the Sixers and I always have interest in him in uptempo games. When it comes to defenders, I like to compare Robert Covington to Patrick Peterson. I have more respect for his defense than the likes of Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverley. With that said, Harden torched Covington and the Sixers for 59 and 98 fantasy points in their two meetings last season. He’s so talented that it takes good team defense to slow him down, not one good defender.

Eric Gordon is right up there with Andre Drummond as one of my favorite plays that shouldn’t see a ton of traction tonight. His role increased dramatically when Paul went down with his injury and his minutes should go up with Ariza out. Gordon has a massive 32% usage rate this season and he’s taken at least 20 shots in two of his last three games. With Covington likely on Harden, that leaves Gordon with the likes of Jerryd Bayless and J.J. Redick. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is going to draw the start at small forward, but P.J. Tucker is the play here. He could see 30 minutes off the bench and is a much better offensive talent than Mbah a Moute.

For whatever reason, Ryan Anderson struggled to shoot the ball at home last season. Only time will tell if that trend will continue this season, but you have to think that he’ll get plenty of open looks tonight. He’s wildly inconsistent, but the minutes should be locked into the low 30s with Ariza out. At his price, I expect him to be very popular. He’s one of the few players in the slate that has the potential to reach fantasy production that is eight times his salary. I don’t target centers against the Sixers when Joel Embiid is active, which takes Clint Capela out of consideration.

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.8 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, P.J. Tucker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – P.J. Tucker (Cash)

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Markelle Fultz (Out)

The Sixers are only 1-3 on the season, but there are plenty of reasons to tune in every time they take the floor. They are a fun team to watch and tonight shouldn’t be any different. Despite what the early season statistics say, the Rockets are a team that wants to push the pace of play. Their emphasis is on the offensive end of the floor, so I expect to see their pace increase and their defensive rankings decrease moving forward. The Sixers have an implied team total of 108.5 points, which is nine points higher than their average points per game.

Markelle Fultz has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which leaves all of the “point guard” minutes to Jerryd Bayless and T.J. McConnell. I put point guard in quotes because Ben Simmons is their true point guard. While I don’t see either as a core play tonight, Bayless and McConnell both offer decent value if you need the savings. With Trevor Ariza out, I don’t think anyone on the Rockets can stay in front of Simmons. They’ll likely put Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on him, but Simmons is such a tough matchup for opposing forwards that I will continue to play him in tournaments. As predicted, his price is already above $8,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Robert Covington is a player that I always want exposure to in tournaments. His range of outcomes is so wide that he’s a tough sell in cash games, but the upside is certainly there. I do worry about foul trouble tonight against James Harden, who is one of the best in basketball at drawing fouls. I’d much rather play Simmons and/or Joel Embiid here. Apparently the Sixers have some secret formula for Embiid to calculate how many minutes he can play. It consists of how many times he runs up and down the floor as opposed to a strict minutes cap. That doesn’t help us in the DFS community out, but 26-28 minutes is a reasonable projection.

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (GPP), Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (Cash), Jerryd Bayless, Robert Covington (GPP)

Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		210.0					Vegas Total		210.0
			Vegas Spread		-1.5					Vegas Spread		1.5
			Implied Team Total		105.8					Implied Team Total		104.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-4.7
Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Wilson Chandler	Paul Millsap	Nikola Jokic		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Jeremy Lamb	Dwayne Bacon	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	15	7	25	7	27		DvP	18	6	27	18	1
DRPM	-1.14	-0.88	N/A	-0.13	2.92		DRPM	-1.82	-2.44	-1.73	3.29	2.00

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

Juan Hernangomez (Out)

The Nuggets are 1-2 to start the season. While they’ve had some tough opponents so far, I didn’t expect their points per game and their points allowed per game to be under 100 through three games. Last year, Denver was one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they pushed the tempo and were involved in a number of shootouts. There is still time for them to get back to that, but it’s something to consider moving forward. Tonight they face a slow-paced Hornets team that plays very good defense at home. This isn’t exactly an ideal spot for a Nuggets’ offense that has a lot of mouths to feed.

After being outplayed by Emmanuel Mudiay in the first two games, Jamal Murray scored 22 fantasy points in 29 minutes against the Wizards. It’s hard to know which point guard will have the hot hand on a nightly basis, so until we see a consistent workload for one, both point guards should be avoided. Gary Harris has a low usage rate (15%) and is only averaging 0.61 FP/min. He’s a tough sell right now, especially with Will Barton playing so well of the bench. Wilson Chandler is in a similar boat as Harris. He currently sports a 14% usage rate with a 0.63 FP/min, neither of which are very appealing from a DFS standpoint.

Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are two of my favorite players in the NBA. They can get it done at both ends and are both versatile big men. The problem is that they are cutting into each other’s fantasy production and we’ve yet to see their salaries adjust to it. Millsap is averaging 26 fantasy points per game and Jokic is averaging 32 fantasy points per game. The Nuggets need to pick up their pace of play for them to have fantasy appeal in DFS. For now, I will be avoiding this team as a whole.

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 8.4 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Cody Zeller (Out)

The Hornets are the preferred team to target in this game. They are playing at home and given the philosophies of these two head coaches, they should see a bump up in pace in this matchup. Denver has played solid defense this season, but the Hornets come into this game with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is seven points higher than their season average.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was activated off of the bereavement list and is expected to draw the start at small forward. Hornets coach Steve Clifford said that MKG’s conditioning still needs a lot of work, so we shouldn’t expect to see him play more than seven minutes per half. This means that we still have the chance to roster Jeremy Lamb. His per-minute production hasn’t been quite as good as in year’s past, but he has a 25% usage rate and is locked into 32-34 minutes a night. I will continue to fire him up on FanDuel ($5,600) where we have to roster two shooting guards.

Kemba Walker may have the best individual matchups of anyone on the Hornets. Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay are two of the worst on-ball defenders this side of the Mississippi. Walker has a 26% usage rate this season, he has good splits at home throughout his career, and his price is more than reasonable across the industry. Dwight Howard has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, averaging 39 fantasy points per contest. However, I don’t target centers against the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is a tremendous low-post defender and Denver is currently ranked first against centers this season. Frank Kaminsky has some appeal off the bench. He is playing starter’s minutes (30 per game) and makes a lot of sense on a site like FanDuel where we have to use two power forwards.

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.0 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb (FD), Frank Kaminsky (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb (DK), Dwight Howard (DK), Frank Kaminsky (DK)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		227.5					Vegas Total		227.5
			Vegas Spread		-7.0					Vegas Spread		7.0
			Implied Team Total		117.3					Implied Team Total		110.3
			Pace Projection +/-		8.8					Pace Projection +/-		-3.5
Projected Starters	LeBron James	J.R. Smith	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love	Tristan Thompson		Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Caris LeVert	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Timofey Mozgov
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	22	15	29	16		DvP	25	18	19	2	7
DRPM	0.22	-0.76	1.09	1.36	0.90		DRPM	1.57	-0.77	1.37	1.93	0.95

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Derrick Rose (Out)
Dwyane Wade (Out)
LeBron James (Probable)

The Cavaliers nearly lost to the Bulls at home last night. They may be 3-1 in the standings, but this does not look like a team that is going to steamroll its way through the East again. I was wrong in my assumption that they would take care of business early against Chicago and rest their starters for tonight’s game. Instead, LeBron James had to play 37 minutes and carry the offense once again. The fact that Cleveland has been struggling actually helps their appeal tonight against the Nets. This is an amazing matchup for fantasy production and the spread is set at only seven points.

I don’t expect LeBron to sit out tonight, but it’s at least a possibility. He’s been dealing with a sore ankle and we know the Cavaliers liked to sit him in the second half of back-to-backs last season. Assuming he’s active, he’s an excellent play against a Nets’ team that is ranked second in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. If he happens to sit out, we could basically load up on the rest of the Cavaliers’ offense. However, trying to break down both scenarios is tough, so let’s assume that James is going to play.

Kevin Love has been more involved in the offense this season. He has a 29% usage rate and he draws an excellent matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 29th against power forwards. The problem with Love is that he doesn’t have the same minute upside as some of the other power forwards in the slate. The Cavaliers seem content to play him 30 minutes a game. Tristan Thompson will draw another start at center. While he will likely stay in the 22-24 minute range, that’s more than enough time to exceed value at a price of $3,600 on FanDuel. Last season, the Nets had one of the worst rebounding differentials in the entire NBA.

With Dwyane Wade out, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert both make sense as value plays at shooting guard. Of the two, I’m leaning toward Smith, who is a better shooter and is more likely to play 30+ minutes. With that said, Jae Crowder is the wing player that I’m most interested in here. He hasn’t played as many minutes as I expected him to in the first four games, but he’s a steady fantasy producer that you can rely on in cash games. With Wade out, he could end up seeing 30+ minutes in a prime matchup against the Nets.

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 122.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.3 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 110.9 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Tristan Thompson (FD), Jae Crowder (DK)

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson (DK & FDRFT), Kevin Love, Jae Crowder (FD & FDRFT), J.R. Smith

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

D’Angelo Russell (Doubtful)
Sean Kilpatrick (Questionable)

The Nets have been more competitive than we expected so far, but the injury bug continues to plague them. They lost Jeremy Lin for the year and it sounds like they will be without D’Angelo Russell tonight. Russell tweaked his ankle against the Magic last night. While he finished the game, he is being listed as doubtful for tonight’s contest against the Cavaliers. Even though they’ll be playing short-handed, this is still a decent matchup for the Nets. They have an implied team total of 110.3 points and are facing a Cleveland team that is ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.

With D’Angelo Russell out, Spencer Dinwiddie and Isaiah Whitehead share the point guard duties. Whitehead has yet to appear in a game this season, so I’d expect Dinwiddie to draw the start and see the majority of the minutes. If that’s the case, he makes for a fine value play against a Cavaliers’ defense that has struggled to defend point guards this season. Russell’s absence opens up minutes for the backup point guards and it also opens up usage in the offense. The Nets will likely turn to Caris LeVert as their main playmaker tonight. We still can’t project him to play more than 30 minutes (because no one on the Nets does), but the increased usage puts him on my radar in all formats. Outside of the two guards mentioned, I don’t have a ton of interest in the Nets. There are too many bodies splitting minutes to feel good about targeting them in a ten game slate.

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Caris LeVert

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie

Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		217.0					Vegas Total		217.0
			Vegas Spread		13.0					Vegas Spread		-13.0
			Implied Team Total		102.0					Implied Team Total		115.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.6					Pace Projection +/-		2.4
Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Domantas Sabonis		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	3	17	15	18		DvP	23	27	9	20	4
DRPM	-0.59	2.47	0.13	-1.49	1.42		DRPM	-1.67	1.64	-2.76	1.69	1.92

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Out)

This game is full of potential revenge. The Thunder basically traded half of their roster to get Paul George, so there may be a few players that have something to prove here. This Pacers’ team is coming off of an impressive win in Minnesota last night. They didn’t just win, they did it in dominating fashion. Vegas clearly isn’t buying into this team though, as they are listed as 13-point underdogs against the Thunder in a game that features a total of 217 points. While Oklahoma City figures to push the pace a bit more this season, they could end up being a top five defense in terms of efficiency.

After Darren Collison dropped a 50-burger on the Wolves last night, people will be clamoring to put him in their lineups. Yes, he’s played very well this season, but he has a 17% usage rate and he’s playing in the second half of back-to-back road games and in a potential blowout. This is a perfect spot to fade Collison, especially if his ownership is expected to climb. This may be a revenge spot for Victor Oladipo, but Andre Roberson is a defender that I don’t like to mess around with. He continues to shut down wing players on a consistent basis. The one and only play for me on this side of the ball is Domantas Sabonis. He has the revenge narrative brewing and Myles Turner has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. In his last two starts (against two tough opponents), Sabonis has scored 40 and 33 fantasy points and he’s still only $4,800 on FanDuel.

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.7 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Domantas Sabonis

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

None

The Thunder are still getting used to playing with each other. Before this season, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony were all the alpha males on their respective teams. It’s going to take some time before we see this team’s true potential, so be patient Thunder fans. Tonight they draw one of the best possible matchups in the slate. The Pacers are ranked eighth in pace of play and 27th in points allowed per game. While there is some concern over a potential blowout (13-point spread), the Thunder’s implied team total of 115 points is mighty tempting.

Russell Westbrook isn’t going to have the highest usage rate in the NBA this season like he did a year ago. He traded in his potential to break stat records for a chance to compete in the West. However, it’s not the end of the world when it comes to his fantasy production. He still owns a 28% usage rate and he’s still one of the best rebounding and passing point guards in basketball. He is always a threat to post a triple-double. I get the feeling that he’ll get overlooked tonight, but that could be a mistake. The Pacers are dreadful defensively. I’ll probably end up using more John Wall, James Harden, and LeBron James in cash games, but Westbrook is truly an elite tournament play.

When all is said and done, I don’t expect Carmelo to lead this team in usage. His priority clearly isn’t fitting in, as he’s taken 65 shots in the first three games alone. If this team isn’t winning, this could be the source of contention a few months from now. Of course, this is all speculation on my part. With Paul George facing his former team, I expect Westbrook and Anthony to take a backseat in this one. Targeting wings against the Pacers is a trend that will be profitable all season (unless the wing player in question gets ruled out with an upper respiratory infection right before lock). People like to play the revenge angle in DFS, but George’s price should help keep his ownership reasonable.

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 116.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (GPP), Paul George (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (Cash), Paul George (Cash), Carmelo Anthony

Jump to Page 1 2