NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 13
Now that December has arrived, the end of the season is near. While that’s unfortunate for us, certain teams are looking forward to putting this year to bed. While some will be geared-up for meaningful games, others will have one eye on offseason vacation. Most of this is baked into Vegas projections, but it’s another factor to keep in mind. We want to take advantage of drain-circlers, not invest in them.
We should also be cognizant of which veterans are running out of steam. It happens every year, and particularly with older players on teams stuck in a death spiral. At the same time, keeping an eye out for young players who are finding their footing can be profitable. As their light bulbs turn on, they spend less time thinking and their talent surfaces – and we can pounce before the public identifies a trend.
On with the Week 13 FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals, $7,900 (-$200)
Here we have an opponent playing out the string, a bit of recency bias, and a dash of paying-up to be contrarian. Palmer is only the fifth-most expensive quarterback, but with a shiny toy like Cam Newton above him in salary, and several cheaper passers on the Week 13 radar, this is an opportunity to use an elite producer at a bottom-barrel ownership rate. Following a game in which he failed to throw a touchdown for the first time this season (he did run for one), but still played well (+4.9 passing grade; fifth-best of Week 12), this is no time to move off of him.
David Johnson will dominate investment in Arizona’s offense, but keep in mind that he’s a better pass-catching back than a between-the-tackles hammer. St. Louis allows 5.9 receptions per game to running backs (ninth-most) and Johnson has 19 in limited work, including three touchdowns. With the Rams blitzing at the league’s ninth-highest rate, and Palmer’s PFF grade and quarterback rating essentially identical against extra rushers (aka, “really good”), Johnson upgrades Palmer. He already has 151 receiving yards and two touchdowns on five catches against the blitz – with 62 yards and one of those scores coming against the Rams.
QB Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons, $7,400 (-$500)
It is no secret that Ryan has not been playing well. Good. After three consecutively-worse passing game grades (from +3.5, down to a 0.0), many folks will ignore his strong matchup and invest elsewhere – despite Ryan being priced as the 15th-most expensive quarterback. He pairs nicely with Julio Jones, and they connected 12 times for 162 yards and a score the last time Atlanta played Tampa Bay. Not coincidentally, that was also the last truly strong performance by Ryan, as he had 397 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and the aforementioned +3.5 passing grade to show for it.
Little has changed with the Buccaneers’ defense since then other than improved run-stopping that’s resulted in 2.95 yards per carry allowed, and should push Atlanta to throw the ball instead of repeatedly hammering a recently-concussed Devonta Freeman in his first game back. Tampa Bay has the 31st-ranked pass coverage (-35.0) and just let the ghost of Matt Hasselbeck throw for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s offense, however, has looked increasingly dynamic and, along with a close projected score (Falcons are two-point underdogs), could spark a back-and-forth affair with more scoring than Vegas’ 46-point projected total suggests.
RB Matt Forte – Chicago Bears, $7,600 (-$200)
We rarely see elite fantasy assets with low ownership rates and reasonable prices. The caveat is Forte’s workload relative to Jeremy Langford’s. In his first game back, Forte played 38 snaps to Langford’s 31, and had 16 touches to the rookie’s 13. He started three of the first four drives and saw five red zone looks, with four coming inside the 10-yard line and two in the fourth quarter. Langford scored on a goal line plunge with his only red zone touch of the night. It was an “even split” that favored Forte, who earned a +2.2 PFF grade for the game versus Langford’s -2.3 mark.
While Langford is not going away, if the split does differ we know where it’s headed. Forte won’t play less than he did last week and will have had 10 days to rest. San Francisco allows 35.2 points per road game, 6.1 receptions per game to running backs (fifth-most), they are touchdown-underdogs, and will travel from the west coast for an early kickoff. The 49ers have lipsticked-up their dying pig by playing tough at home, but appear headed to slaughter against an improving Bears team with long-shot playoff hopes.
RB Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers, $7,200 (+$100)
With just about everyone on Cam Newton, Stewart makes for a quality “next most likely” pivot. We tried this last week with Alfred Blue against the Saints and it almost worked. Using the more talented Stewart raises the ceiling on the play. He won’t be lightly owned, but will be on fewer rosters than he should be due to a negative stigma against – but not a negative correlation for – the quarterback/running back stack. Stewart is a sharp way of cutting the chalk on a Newton roster, or to fade him completely.
Newton’s road quarterback rating (83.9) and no-huddle rate (8.0 percent) trail his numbers at home (93.2 and 31 percent), but New Orleans allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks by a mile. Newton will move the Panthers up and down the field, yet Stewart leads the league in red zone carries by three (39), and touchdown-scoring variance is a fickle witch. The Saints also allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs, allow the second-highest yards-per-carry mark (4.9), and have essentially given up on the season. As a touchdown favorite with an implied total north of four touchdowns, Carolina will have PFF’s fifth-highest-graded running back pounding away.
RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $6,900 (-$400)
Heading into Week 10, Blount was averaging 19.2 touches, 94.2 yards, and a touchdown per game against defenses with a bottom-10 PFF rushing grade. He managed 77 total yards and a touchdown on 21 touches against the Giants, before averaging 13 touches over his last two games as offensive injuries crippled the Patriots. With their offense line as healthy as it’s been since Blount bludgeoned Washington (129 rushing yards and a score), and New England favored by nearly 10 points with a 29-point implied total, it’s time to fire Blount back up.
Since facing a toothless Giants’ running game six weeks ago – and still allowing Rashad Jennings 4.8 yards per carry – the Eagles have spiraled downward while surrendering 5.3 yards per attempt to running backs with at least five carries. With Philadelphia maintaining their own break-neck pace (NFL-high 70.7-percent no-huddle; NFL-low 22.4 seconds per snap), their opponents are running the most plays in the league (69.5). With much of Fantasyland focusing on which of New England’s receivers will take better advantage of a crumbling Eagles’ secondary, riding Blount instead offers a unique lineup, goal line scores, and late-game clock grinding.
RB Jeremy Hill – Cincinnati Bengals, $6,600 (+$100)
Despite a low projected game total (43.5 points), the fact that Cincinnati is nearly a 10-point favorite makes this spot for Hill. Late-game script will be on his side, and the Bengals have a top-five implied total (26.5 points). Hill crept back toward a 50-percent snap load last game (46) while reaching 17 touches for the first time since Week 6. He posted a season-high 2.7 yards-after-contact-per-attempt rate for the second game in a row, while topping his prior best yards-per-carry mark by a full yard (5.4). Hill also pairs perfectly with the Cincinnati team defense.
The Browns allow the ninth-most points to running backs and the sixth-most yards per carry (4.6), while the Bengals’ run blocking ranks sixth (+37.3). Cleveland was just gashed by a Ravens rushing attack that was missing three-fifths of their offensive line. Bernard has outperformed Hill, but the smaller back has worn down in the past. Week 13 should present Bengals’ coaches with an opportunity to save him some wear. It may be Narrative Street, and Hill isn’t dominating backfield touches to the extent he was late in 2014, but with the weather turning south, it makes sense that his workload will continue heading north.
WR Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars, $8,000 (+$100)
Despite scoring his eighth touchdown and posting his eighth-straight double-digit FanDuel score, it’s been relatively quiet on the Robinson front. He is priced amongst a gaggle of buzzier names – particularly the $300 cheaper Alshon Jeffery – and, as the seventh-most-expensive wideout on the weekend slate, his lack of 20-plus-point performances gives him an air of extravagance. However, with running mate Allen Hurns sitting out a matchup between defenses that top the NFL in yards-per-carry-allowed since Week 8, Robinson’s rock-solid floor comes with a cathedral ceiling.
Already averaging 9.9 targets per game and ranking 12th in red zone looks (15), Robinson will drink some runoff from Hurns’ unaccounted-for workload (6.8 targets per game, 10 red zone looks). He faces a 14th-ranked Titans’ coverage unit (+1.2) best known for not being a total train wreck. Yet they allowed a pair of 330-plus-yard, three-touchdown passing days in the last month, plus a 113-yard game to Robinson himself. In that contest, 83 of his yards came on three catches when Blake Bortles was blitzed. Robinson has accrued 46 percent of his receptions, 48 percent of his yards, and 63 percent of his touchdowns against the blitz, while the Titans bring extra rushers at the league’s second-highest rate (46.8 percent).
WR Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals, $7,300 (-$100)
While Fitzgerald does not fit the theme of avoiding veterans late in the season, he has picked up his pace since a slowdown from Week 5 through Week 7. Since then, he’s averaging 12.3 targets, 9.3 catches, and 92.5 yards. He has not been scoring at the same pace as during his blistering first month, but the rest of the numbers are comparable. A theme that Fitzgerald does fit is taking advantage of the ownership void David Johnson is leaving in his wake.
Like with Palmer, it’s notable that the Rams are a heavy-blitz defense, as Fitzgerald has seen an insane 47 targets when opponents bring extra rushers. He has caught 34 of them for 363 yards and four touchdowns. With John Brown (14.6 yard average depth of target) and Michael Floyd (17.9) running downfield routes, Fitzgerald (9.8) is the logical choice to see quicker throws. He will run most of his routes (62 percent) against slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner, on whom he has seven inches and 34 pounds. The Rams may already have given up on 2015, but they have a knack of hanging in divisional games – which will help keep the Cardinals in an aggressive play-calling stance.
WR Eric Decker – New York Jets, $7,200 (+$100)
Although Decker’s price is rising, he remains just the 16th-most expensive receiver. He has the third-most red zone targets this year, his 15 receptions over the last three weeks are the 11th-most among wideouts, his 228 yards rank eighth, and his 30 targets are the seventh-most. In Week 12, he continued a season-long streak of producing at least 80 yards and/or a touchdown, but with Brandon Marshall piling up 131 yards and two scores, Decker remained out of the spotlight. While he’s been the ideal cash game option thus far, this week’s matchup sets his ceiling higher.
The Giants allow the 11th-most fantasy points to wideouts. Yet while they only give up the 20th-most touchdowns per game to the position (0.9), they allow the fourth-most receptions (14.3) and sixth-most yards (183.3). Their perimeter cornerbacks are strong, but Decker runs two-thirds of his routes from the slot – where Prince Amukamara (four percent of snaps) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (six percent) rarely travel. The Giants have allowed six receiving touchdowns from the slot, where Decker will face toasty Tevin Wade – on whom he has five inches and 24 pounds. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed early on against Vontae Davis that he will pepper Decker when Marshall is covered by a top cornerback.
WR Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers, $6,900 (+$200)
After Antonio Brown still registered a healthy ownership rate despite his probable duel with Richard Sherman, he will be popular in a prime time home game. Bryant was disappointing against the Seahawks, but still saw 12 targets and has a chance to blow up against the Colts while investors jump ship. It is small sample coincidence, but both of Bryant’s 100-yard games (137 and 178 yards) and four of his five touchdowns have come at home. If nothing else, it illustrates the volatility that makes him both nauseating to roster and the perfect tournament option.
If the Colts do not have Vontae Davis shadow Brown, Bryant gets to run roughly two-thirds of his routes against twin bonfires Greg Toler (-8.2 coverage grade) and Darius Butler (-6.9). They both rank in the bottom-16 out of 113 cornerbacks. If Davis does shadow, get the marshmallows ready. Toler and Butler allowed a combined 14 catches on 17 targets, for 227 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers last year. It is easy to forget that last game was only the Bryant’s third with Ben Roethlisberger this season in which the quarterback wasn’t knocking off rust. He’s a young player for whom the light is still coming on.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,200 (+$400)
In the interest of full disclosure, I had Kyle Rudolph here until this morning. He is a fine play, but has a relatively limited ceiling. I usually have most of this article written by Friday, and check the Thursday night ownership numbers to make sure I’m not way off on something. To see Kelce with a 6.1-percent rate in the NFL Snap was surprising, as I expected to see at least mid-to-high teens. Anything less than double-digit ownership for him is a beautiful thing in a week without many top-notch tight end options.
Kelce has begun to see the workload that Fantasyland has been clamoring for. Over his last four games he’s averaging 7.5 targets and is tied for the second-most-targeted tight end during those weeks. Kelce also leads the Chiefs in looks over that span, as his target percentage while in the slot – from where he runs 40 percent of his routes — jumped from 19.4 percent to 31.8 percent. The Raiders play better run defense (+18.6; 13th) than pass coverage (-23.1; 25th), and allow the third-most points to tight ends. Despite a couple of slow games by teams that don’t feature the position, they remain a defense to target.
TE Jacob Tamme – Atlanta Falcons, $5,200 (+$100)
It appears Leonard Hankerson will miss another game, which puts Tamme squarely on the radar. During the four games in which Hankerson played fewer than 10 snaps or missed entirely, Tamme averaged roughly twice as many targets (8.5 versus 4.7) and catches (6.0 vs 3.3) as when Atlanta’s “number three” wideout played. During those Hank-less weeks, Tamme has the eighth-most fantasy points, sixth-most receiving yards, third-most targets and catches, and the most forced missed tackles among tight ends.
Tamme does not have the highest ceiling, as his single touchdown on the year illustrates. Yet the Falcons should be throwing quite a bit, and as we touched on above, Ryan is in a nice bounce-back spot. Atlanta’s Week 8 game against Tampa Bay wasn’t just Ryan’s best game of the season, it was Tamme’s as well. He hauled in 10 of his 12 targets, for 103 yards and a score. Since that point, the Buccaneers have faced a run of backup tight ends or quarterbacks, and are better-known for blowing wide receiver coverages. Tamme should be lightly owned, with trendier picks priced just above (Scott Chandler) and below him (Kyle Rudolph).