NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 6
How was your Week 5? Mine was bittersweet. It was profitable – basically all of our top plays hit. But not playing James Conner over JuJu Smith-Schuster cost me something like $145,000.
Here are my Week 6 main slate plays for DraftKings and FanDuel:
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterback
Two weeks ago I wrote on a post-it note to myself, “All-in on Jameis Winston in Week 6. No matter what.” It’s Week 6. I’m still all-in, with the exception of some Matt Ryan lineups.
Jameis Winston [DK: QB10, FD: QB11]
Winston was a lot better last year than you may remember. Across the 11 games he played on at least 50 percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps, he averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game and 306.9 passing yards per game. Those numbers ranked fourth and first, respectively, among all quarterbacks to play in as many games. This season, across the first three games Winston missed, his backup, career journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick totaled 101.4 fantasy points, or the fourth-most by any quarterback through any three-week stretch ever.
Perhaps most of the credit for Fitzpatrick’s impressive start belongs to new OC Todd Monken. You know, seeing as how it’s weird his three best games in terms of passing yards (of 137 career games) all came this year. If that’s the case, I’m eager to see what he has up his sleeve this week, coming off the bye with extra time to prepare. Oh, but how do we know Winston will be a good fit with Monken? Well, he was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback this preseason, recording 30 completions, 388 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions on 41 attempts. And now Winston gets a dream matchup against an atrocious Atlanta defense in what should be a high-scoring pass-heavy shootout.
Tampa Bay has had no running game all season and Atlanta is likely to be without Devonta Freeman this week. Tampa Bay’s defense has surrendered 80 percent of their total yards allowed via the pass (most). Both teams rank bottom-six in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Both teams rank bottom-four in fantasy points allowed per dropback and pressures forced per dropback. Tampa Bay is on pace to set all-decade lows in opposing passer rating (116.2), passing yards allowed per game (360.5), and passing touchdowns allowed per game (2.90). The Falcons rank dead-last in points allowed per drive, while the Buccaneers rank second-worst. Both offenses rank top-10 in pace neutral pass percentage. Atlanta is without their top linebacker Deion Jones, two starting safeties, and their highest-graded defender (in each of the past two years) DL Grady Jarrett is questionable. Tampa Bay is without a starting safety and one or two starting cornerbacks, depending on whether or not Carlton Davis suits up. I can keep going but I think you get the picture.
Matt Ryan [DK: QB1, FD: QB3]
As we outlined just above, the matchup is just as good for Ryan as it is Winston, and maybe better. Ryan struggled in Weeks 1 and 5 when he was on the road but played much better at home in Weeks 2 through 4. How much better? Well, he totaled 100.1 fantasy points, or the fifth-most by any quarterback through any three-week stretch ever. Yes, he’s at home this week in the dome.
Other: There are other plays but I’m not going to play them.
Running Back
Todd Gurley [DK: RB1, FD: RB1]
Though Gurley is the highest-priced player on both sites, he’s still a top value on FanDuel (though a tougher sell on DraftKings). Gurley has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last nine games, and averages a whopping 31.4 fantasy points per game over this stretch. Since Week 1 of 2017, Gurley leads all players in percentage of his team’s total yards with 32.7 percent. The next-closest player is LeSean McCoy with 26.5 percent. More impressively, over this span, he’s accounted for 43.8 percent of his team’s total offensive touchdowns. The next-closest player is Melvin Gordon at only 33.3 percent.
These numbers are all backed up by the usage stats as well – carries, targets, snaps, expected fantasy points, opportunities inside the five-, 10-, and 20-yard lines, and then all of those numbers on a market share basis as well. It’s hard to describe just how valuable Gurley is. No other player is a bigger part of their team’s offense than Gurley, and Gurley just so happens to be playing on the best offense in football. He gets a fairly soft matchup this week against a Denver defense ranking second-worst in yards per carry allowed (5.55) and rushing fantasy points per game allowed (19.4). I won’t be making a FanDuel lineup without him this week.
T.J. Yeldon [DK: RB10, FD: RB9]
In Week 5, Yeldon totaled 26.7 expected fantasy points and 26.2 actual fantasy points, which ranked second- and fifth-best at the position, respectively. Although Jacksonville signed Jamaal Charles Tuesday, per Tom Pelissero, “the plan is for T.J. Yeldon to still be ‘the guy’ in the Jaguars’ backfield” while Leonard Fournette is out. Despite Fournette playing four quarters throughout the season, and Corey Grant (now on IR) mixing in, Yeldon still ranks sixth among all running backs in expected fantasy points and eighth in actual fantasy points. Based almost entirely on volume and a lack of competition for backfield snaps, he’s a top value on the slate, despite what’s at-best a neutral matchup even with Sean Lee out.
Other (Expensive): Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey
Other (Cheap): Bilal Powell (a top play if Isaiah Crowell is out), Phillip Lindsay, Tarik Cohen, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay, Carlos Hyde, Ito Smith, Marlon Mack
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones [DK: WR5, FD: WR5]
Despite (as we all know) poor volume and efficiency near the end zone, Jones’ volume has still been pretty good overall. Among wide receivers he ranks seventh in expected fantasy points per game, fifth in targets per game, second in air yards per game, and second in deep targets per game. He’s coming off of a disappointing outing last week, in shadow coverage against Joe Haden, to face the ultimate possible matchup. Tampa Bay ranks dead-last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. As Graham Barfield noted here, Tampa Bay’s perimeter cornerbacks have been atrocious on a per-target-basis, and that’s where Jones runs 79 percent of his routes. That matchup might get even softer this week with Carlton Davis questionable.
Since 2014, Jones averages 26.2 fantasy points per game across eight games against Tampa Bay, or 34.7 fantasy points per game when home and against Tampa Bay. Since 2014, 30 percent of his receiving touchdowns have come against Tampa Bay. After “only” seeing nine targets last week, HC Dan Quinn apologized after the game, saying, “[We] just have to make sure [Jones] gets as many touches as we can in the game. He’s one of our best and most explosive players so every game, we want him involved.” I suspect he’ll rectify that error big-time in Week 6. This is a Julio eruption spot – the only other time I’ve said that within this column he scored over 50 fantasy points – and he’s nonsensically priced on both sites.
Mohamed Sanu [DK: WR31, FD: WR32]
As bad as Tampa Bay is on the perimeter, they’re far worse in the slot. After losing starting slot cornerback Vernon Hargreaves to the I.R. in Week 1, they’re giving up a league-high 30.4 fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers, which is more than double the league average rate of 14.5. A whopping 65 percent of their wide receiver fantasy points allowed has gone to the slot, which also leads the league. Keep in mind, Sanu runs 75 percent of his routes from the slot and is coming off of back-to-back big games. Over this span, he totals 10 receptions, 184 yards, and a touchdown (on 16 targets). I’d bet he has another big game this week.
Chester Rogers [DK: WR39, FD: WR35]
Over the past two weeks, with T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle out of the lineup, Rogers has averaged 18.0 expected fantasy points per game. That ranks 10th-most among all wide receivers over this span. He’s run 94 percent of his routes from the slot and draws the only defense anywhere near as bad at covering slot wide receivers as Tampa Bay. The Jets are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers, but the eighth-fewest to outside wide receivers. He’s my top value play at the position this week, though there are quite a few names to like.
Other: Robert Woods, Amari Cooper, Courtland Sutton, Taylor Gabriel, John Brown / Michael Crabtree, Corey Davis, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Boyd, KeKe Coutee / Josh Reynolds (depending on injuries), and the other obvious high-priced guys and wide receivers in the Tampa / Atlanta game
Tight End
Cameron Brate [DK: TE9, FD: TE22]
Throughout his career, Jameis Winston averages a 120.7 passer rating when targeting tight ends. That ranks second-best (behind only Tom Brady) among all active quarterbacks. When targeting slot or outside wide receivers, he ranks bottom-five. Ryan Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, has almost the reverse splits. 41 percent of Winston’s career touchdowns have gone to tight ends (most by any quarterback this past decade), while the average rate around the league is about 26 percent. Since Week 1 of last season, Brate averages 10.7 fantasy points per game in games Jameis Winston played. That would rank eighth-best this season. Now, with O.J. Howard likely out of the picture, Brate is a near must-play pairing with Winston. (Though, if Howard is active, I’m probably pivoting elsewhere.)
Austin Hooper [DK: TE10, FD: TE7]
In Week 5, Hooper set a new career high in targets with 12, catching nine for 77 yards. This was well out of line from his typical usage – he’s seen six or fewer targets in 91 percent of his career games. So, while our target expectations for him should probably be in the four to six range, last week’s heavy involvement is still encouraging. With the second-highest implied total of the week (30.5) and Tampa Bay ranking third-worst in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, he’s a strong value.
Eric Ebron [DK: TE1, FD: TE1]
He’s the highest-priced tight end on both sites. He’s on the injury report for four separate issues (shin, quad, ankle, and knee). That said, T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are both out, and Ebron’s recent volume has been absurd. Ebron totals 66.2 expected fantasy points over the past three weeks, which ranks behind only Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, DeAndre Hopkins, and Antonio Brown. Over this span, he’s seen 35 targets which ranks second-most among all players, totaling 350 air yards (10th-most), including eight end zone targets (most). This is also why Erik Swoope is a top play if Ebron sits.
Other: C.J. Uzomah with Tyler Kroft out vs. TE/Slot funnel Steelers, Jordan Reed with everyone else hurt