NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 6
Despite several juicy matchups, the clear focus of the week is on New England’s offensive approach in their revenge game against Indianapolis. While I still expect an up-tempo, pass-heavy, spread approach, Dion Lewis popping up on the mid-week injury report, along with left tackle Nate Solder’s season-ending biceps tear, gives pause. Plus, no matter which Patriots we roster, it will be expensive and they will be highly-owned.
Given the situation, I’m going with Julian Edelman, who runs routes that uncover quickly and can pay off his cost even within a ground-based game plan. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski remain elite plays, and it’s tough to argue with paying up for them. But if Brady hands off more than expected, and Gronkowski blocks on the edge more often, they could come up short of expectations. At high ownership, and for the reasons detailed below, I’m more comfortable with Edelman.
Okay, on with the FanDuel tournament plays.
QB Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals, $8,000 (-$100)
In a week where paying up for Brady, or down for Andy Dalton, will be popular, there are three mid-range passers who offer high ceilings and relatively off-the-radar ownership percentages. Two play on Monday night, and the other is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the league lead in touchdown passes (13). Palmer has more points per dropback than Rodgers (0.65 versus 0.63), and trails only Dalton in the metric. His passing grade ranks first (+19.7), and the only thing holding him back from total domination is a meager 148 attempts (21st-most).
Volume should not be an issue against a Steelers team that’s allowed the fourth-most opponent snaps since Michael Vick took over at quarterback (73.5). Expect the Cardinals to attack primarily through the air, where Pittsburgh’s 31st-ranked pass coverage (-19.3) will spend the afternoon being dog-walked by Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and Michael Floyd – any of whom are worth stacking in GPPs (yes, even Floyd). With the Steelers only allowing 80.2 rushing yards per game to running backs (ninth-fewest), expect Bruce Arians’ crew to air it out in his return to Pittsburgh.
QB Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles, $7,700 (+$200)
Bradford once again proved that style points don’t count in fantasy football. Despite calls for him to be benched at halftime for two consecutive weeks, he is the sixth-highest scoring fantasy quarterback during that time. Bradford has five touchdown passes over the last two games, his completion percentage broke 70 for the first time last week, and he’s thrown nearly as many 15-plus-yard passes in his last six quarters (14) as he did in his first 14 quarters (18). The Eagles no-huddle rate climbed back over 75-percent for the first time since Week 1, and their snaps topped 70 for the first time in 2015.
Bradford will play a central role in a high-volume affair between a pair of top-seven ranked teams in snaps-allowed. The Eagles implied total is nearly four touchdowns (27 points) and that scoring will mainly come through the air against a Giants defense that allows 3.5 yards per carry (second-best). New York is giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, leads the league in passing yardage surrendered, and their pass rush grades dead last (-13.1). Their pass coverage, which just lost top cornerback Prince Amukamara, is essentially defenseless (-15.4; seventh-worst).
RB Matt Forte – Chicago Bears, $8,400 (No Price Change)
The Bears are road underdogs, which usually is a situation best avoided. But Forte sixth at his position in targets (25), has traditionally been game script agnostic, and the Lions are only favored by a field goal. Opportunity is rarely an issue with Forte, who leads the league in carries and is perched atop the snaps-played list among running backs. Contributing to his workload is a Bears offense with the fourth-highest no-huddle rate (33 percent), and the tenth-most plays-per-game. If the Week 3 debacle in Seattle is removed, their 70.2-percent snap rate would rank second-highest.
The Lions are surrendering the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs, and that average has been brought down by the Marshawn Lynch-less Seahawks, and the legless Broncos. Detroit also allowed 29 carries for 134 yards to Adrian Peterson, and Cardinals running backs averaged 9.1 yards per carry on 21 handoffs with three touchdowns. Most of their defensive linemen’s run-stopping grades are negative, and their linebackers’ coverage marks are mostly in the red. Forte again offers a strong floor-ceiling combination at a palatable ownership rate.
RB Eddie Lacy – Green Bay Packers, $7,300 (-$300)
It was roughly this time last year when Lacy began to eat. The Packers again seem inclined to take it easy on him, and that’s only been heightened by an ankle sprain suffered in Week 2. Between that, and Green Bay’s daunting run-defense schedule, it shouldn’t be shocking that he is off to a slow start. Hopefully, it will keep his ownership percentage to a dull roar this week. Lacy has faced PFF’s first (St. Louis), second, (Seattle), third (Kansas City), sixth (Chicago), and 20th-ranked run defenses. He averaged 5.0 yards on 18 carries against those 20th-ranked 49ers.
The Chargers are giving up the third-most rushing yards to running backs and lead the NFL in fantasy points surrendered to the position. They allow a league-high 5.1 yards per carry, their run defense ranks third-worst (-32.8), and they have just one defensive lineman who isn’t a liability against the run (Corey Liuget; +3.1). San Diego will be playing on the road after a short week and are 10-point underdogs against a Green Bay team that would like nothing more than to get their running game going. Game script will be in Lacy’s favor, and it’s time to start fattening up for winter.
RB C.J. Anderson – Denver Broncos, $6,600 (No Price Change)
As a road favorite against a flimsy run defense, in a game forecast to be played in cold and windy conditions, it’s not hard to imagine that Broncos coaches would prefer their calcifying quarterback hands off a lot. Winning with “defense and a running game,” is easier than with defense alone. The sputtering Anderson has an opportunity to get his season on track, especially with both of his backups nicked-up. The specter of Ronnie Hillman, who is still yet to out-touch Anderson in any game, will scare off some DFS investors. Most others will run away from his 2.6 yards per attempt.
After earning a -15.8 run blocking grade over the first two games, the Broncos posted a +5.6 mark during the last three weeks. Perhaps that’s because they faced PFF’s third and 10th-ranked run defenses to start the season, and the 14th, 17th, and 22nd-best units since then. Either way, their blocking is improving. Denver gets the Cleveland’s run defense, which ranks last (-35.8). The Browns are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs and the second-highest yards-per-carry mark (5.0). Time to get (back) in on Anderson’s ground floor after a $1,800 price drop since Week 1.
RB Lamar Miller – Miami Dolphins, $6,400 (-$200 from Week 4)
The Dolphins are coming off of a bye week and an exorcism. They gained health, a new head coach, and an alleged attitude adjustment. There are miles of Narrative Street lining a Miller play, but that’s not the only reason to go down this road. Brandon Albert, the 13th-best run-blocking tackle in 2014 (+6.8; in only nine games played) has had two weeks to heal. As has their top run-blocking tight end, Dion Sims. New head coach and former blocking tight end himself, Dan Campbell, has reportedly been stressing the importance of the Dolphins’ running game.
It is no secret that the uber-efficient Miller’s problem is his workload. In 2014, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, graded as the fifth-best runner (+11.0), ranked second of all 100-carry running backs in yards-before-contact per attempt, and was fantasy’s RB9 on the 14th-most handoffs. He faces a 21st-ranked Titans run defense that’s allowed an average of 5.3 yards per carry and one touchdown per game to Doug Martin, Isaiah Crowell, and Frank Gore. The only time they shut down the run was last week, against Buffalo’s backup’s backups. Miller will be lightly-owned, the Dolphins are in a clear rebound spot, and if he does repeatedly rumble down Narrative Street, we will want exposure.
WR Brandon Marshall – New York Jets, $8,000 (+$200 from Week 4)
Coming off of a bye and a Week 4 snooze-fest against a Dolphins team that wanted to leave Joe Philbin in London, the buzz surrounding Marshall has been minimal. He is also getting expensive, and is priced within $200 of Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, A.J. Green, Julian Edelman, and Emmanuel Sanders. Along with a low projected game total (41 points), it should create a palatable ownership percentage for a wideout who averages 10.8 targets, 7.5 catches, 100 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. Expect another high-target day against an opponent who defends the run better than the pass.
Marshall has a strong matchup with hobbled cornerback Chris Culliver, whose coverage grade (-3.6) ranks 88th among qualifying cornerbacks. Eric Decker and tight end Jeff Cumberland will be healthy enough to draw defensive attention, and whatever target reduction that causes for Marshall should be made up by increased efficiency and overall snap volume. The Jets rank sixth in plays per game (67.3) and their seventh-ranked run defense will be bolstered by Sheldon Richardson’s return. Washington, who allowed 77 snaps last week, will struggle to possess the ball.
WR Julian Edelman – New England Patriots, $7,900 (+$200)
Edelman offers a sizable chunk of the New England passing game (28.8 percent target share) without breaking the bank (10th-most expensive wideout). He is averaging 8.5 catches, 99.8 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. With the Patriots sporting a ridiculous 32-plus implied points, and some question about whether their run-heavy game plans from 2014 can be replicated, Edelman has a high floor with a nice ceiling. Even with New England emasculating the Colts on the ground, he averaged seven catches and 96 all-purpose yards (including three rushes for 43 yards).
Edelman caught passes against eight different Colts defenders last year, and when Greg Toler matched up on him – as he will at times Sunday night – the Patriots slot machine caught all five targets for 67 yards. Toler is fresh off of his first game of 2015, where he allowed seven of nine targets to be completed, for 103 yards and a touchdown. His -2.1 coverage grade fits with last year’s marks, when he ranked 102 out of 108 qualifying cornerbacks (-13.2). When Edelman toys with Darius Butler in the slot (49.7 percent slot rate), all the better. Butler sports a -4.7 coverage grade (97th of 108 cornerbacks).
WR Jordan Matthews – Philadelphia Eagles, $6,600 (-$200)
Matthews has burned investors for three straight weeks, or long enough that his price is down $500 from its Week 3 high point, and his bandwagon is significantly lighter than it was in late September. That’s perfect, especially considering the favorable situation he will find himself in on Monday night. It is no secret that the Giants struggle to defend the middle of the field, and that’s where Matthews gets most of his work. He has seen 70 percent of his targets and accumulated 77 percent of his catches between the hash marks.
Matthews runs 96 percent of his routes from the slot, and has seen a league-leading 42 targets when lined up there. Last week, New York surrendered seven catches, 98 yards, and a touchdown to Anquan Boldin on eight slot targets. The six-foot-three, 212-pound Matthews has a clear matchup advantage on either Trumaine McBride (5’9” and 185 pounds; -4.0 coverage grade, 91st), or Trevin Wade (5’10” and 190 pounds; -0.6 coverage grade on just 47 snaps) — the seventh-round draft pick McBride got benched for against the 49ers.
WR Kamar Aiken – Baltimore Ravens, $6,000 (+$200)
The worry over Aiken this week, and what should cut into his ownership percentage from last week, is Steve Smith and Crockett Gillmore may be back. That is fine for Aiken’s outlook. It may cost him a target or two off of his nine from Week 5, but it will aid the overall offense and occupy safeties that were more inclined to look his way last game. Either way, the surprisingly athletic six-foot-two, 215-pound Aiken is an emerging factor and has averaged 77.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 16 total targets during the last two games.
Aiken, whose receiving grade over the last two weeks ranks seventh (+2.7), will primarily run routes against 49ers whipping-boy Kenneth Acker. All of San Francisco’s cornerbacks have struggled, and the 49ers rank last in pass coverage (-20.7), but Acker has been especially bad. His coverage grade ranks 91st, he’s allowed a 101.5 quarterback rating when targeted, and his 340 yards surrendered is the sixth-highest total in the league. In a game that sets up for a pass-heavy script, especially if Ravens lead back Justin Forsett’s ankle doesn’t check out, Aiken should play a large role.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,200 (-$300)
Kelce has not scored since his two-touchdown opener and has seen his passing grade decline for each outing, from +3.3 to -1.5 last week. He was averaging seven targets per game until he saw just five last week. With Jamaal Charles — who had been seeing six looks per game coming into Week 5 — out for the season, we can expect Kelce to drink some of that runoff. While his play and workload have dipped over the short term, Kelce is still a monster. He leads all tight ends in forced missed tackles and his yards-after-catch-per-reception average tops any tight end with more than ten receptions.
The Vikings are allowing only the 16th-most fantasy points to tight ends, but when you consider who they’ve faced, it is not overly impressive. Minnesota has played the ghost of Vernon Davis, the inconsistent Eric Ebron (who had 43 yards and a touchdown), the Chargers without Antonio Gates or Ladarius Green (injured Week 3), and Uncle Owen Daniels – who actually scored along with his nine yards. With other tight ends attractively-priced below Kelce (specifically, Tyler Eifert and Antonio Gates), and everyone wanting a piece of Gronk, this is a nice spot to roster a temporarily dormant Zeus.
TE Larry Donnell – New York Giants, $5,300 (+$100)
Donnell is an affordable way to get a piece of the Giants offense in one of the three 50-point over/under games on the slate. With Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle potentially hamstrung, Donnell will have a central role in a lightning-tempoed contest featuring a pair of defenses that are far easier to attack through the air. He ranks in the top-10 at his position with 30 targets, the Eagles are allowing the seventh-most receptions to tight ends on a per-game basis (5.6), and they could again be without injured linebackers Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks.
Donnell’s overall PFF grade has risen each game, from -4.0 in Week 1 to +0.9 last week, when he set a season-high for receptions (6) and scored his second touchdown of the year. He has seven targets in each of the last two contests, which coincides with backup tight end Daniel Fells being lost for the season. It is perfectly reasonable to pay up for Gronkowski, as he essentially has a floor of one touchdown and a ceiling of three. However, Donnell – who saw 22 red zone targets in 2014 and has eight already this season – offers a two-touchdown ceiling at a $2,900 discount.