NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 8
Week 8 brings no shortage of juicy matchups for stud players, particularly among running backs and receivers. Plus, with big ticket quarterbacks and tight ends either drawing tough opponents (Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck), not in the main weekend slate (Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce), or on bye (Jordan Reed, cough Sam Bradford), it makes paying down to free up salary more attractive. The fact that cheaper quarterbacks have regularly been hitting adds to the appeal.
While the two passers below will be low-owned, it’s rare that any quarterback has a truly prohibitive ownership percentage. The goal here is to gain salary and, if you stack either with one or more of their teammates, lineup diversity. At tight end, Ladarius Green is both a great value and the only one at his position who will be extremely high-owned. Eating the chalk with him, or Tyler Eifert to a lesser degree, is certainly an option. We can make our lineups unique in other ways.
With prices getting tighter, and several popular players unavailable, the key to the week will be saving in the places where it’s relatively less painful.
On with the Week 8 FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – New York Jets, $7,400 (+$300 from Week 7)
There are plenty of ways to go at quarterback, but if you want to pay down for a triggerman with a pair of stackable wideouts in good coverage matchups, and whose game sets up for more throwing than running, FitzMagic is your huckleberry. Not only does Oakland’s run defense allow just 3.7 yards per carry (fifth-best), but New York’s leads the league with a 3.4 average. Both offenses will be throwing, and it should lead to more opportunities for a Jets team that already ranks sixth in plays-per-game (67.7).
The Raiders lead the league in opponent passing attempts (44 per game), and rank 29th in rushing attempts against (23 per game). Their pass coverage grades 22nd (-10.2) and they allow the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. When Jets running backs were averaging 2.6 yards per carry against the Eagles and Patriots, Fitzpatrick averaged 48.5 passing attempts. He has also averaged 23.5 FanDuel points over the last two weeks, will almost definitely be low-owned, and offers excellent flexibility both from a salary (15th-most expensive) and a lineup construction/stacking perspective.
QB Eli Manning – New York Giants, $7,300 (-$500)
It was tempting to go with Jay Cutler for the same price, as the Bears are possibly a sleeping, fast-paced giant now that their weapons are healthy. But we can get exposure to them in other ways, and the Giants-Saints matchup is projected to score roughly seven more points. Manning faces a New Orleans outfit that allows the second-most fantasy points per game to passers, and their pass rush grades third-worst (-7.2). That’s key for Manning, who, like most quarterbacks, plays better with a clean pocket (96.8 quarterback rating) than when pressured (80.0 QBR).
Despite paltry statistics, Manning played well last week (+2.0 passing grade; eighth-best of Week 7). The problem was, despite New York going no-huddle on 55 percent of snaps, they only ran 51 plays against the plodding Cowboys (33.1 seconds per snap; slowest of Week 7). Since Drew Brees returned to full health three weeks ago, the Saints have been high-volume in both plays per game (74.7) and plays allowed (70.0). Considering their schizophrenic backfield affliction, the 3.5-point-underdog Giants project to have passing volume on their side, and in a favorable matchup for it.
RB Le’Veon Bell – Pittsburgh Steelers, $8,900 (No Price Change)
This can be labeled “paying up to be contrarian,” as Bell is the second-most expensive running back of the week. If the hefty price tag doesn’t keep his ownership percentage at a palatable level, the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is returning might help. Fantasyland has been waiting for him to get healthy and re-activate Antonio Brown, whose price has been pushed down entirely due to inept backup quarterback play. We can safely assume that very few lineups will use both Bell and Brown in a negative
correlation play.
Rostering the best fantasy running back at less than heavy-ownership is always worth doing. It is especially beautiful in a favorable matchup, and since Pittsburgh may want to ease their quarterback back in as slowly as possible. The Bengals allow 7.2 receptions to running backs on a per-game basis (fourth-most), and their linebackers can’t cover anyone. They’ve given up 4.9 yards per carry (third-most), and 6.5 yards per carry to the three most recent lead backs that they faced. The last full game that Bell played against them, he had 185 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, with six catches for 50 yards and another score.
RB Marshawn Lynch – Seattle Seahawks, $8,300 (+$100)
It definitely looked like Lynch was back to his beastly ways last Thursday night in San Francisco. He ripped off 122 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries, while breaking five tackles. He collected 77 of those yards on 15 second-half carries, despite a 17-point scoring margin, and they came against a 49ers run defense that had been allowing less than four yards per attempt coming into the game. Lynch is clearly healthier now, and will have had 10 days of rest before his date with a Cowboys team that will struggle to execute their desired ball-control offense against Seattle’s elite defense.
Dallas has allowed 5.1 yards per carry to running backs over the last four games, and their run defense grades third-worst (-31.7) after sporting a +9.5 mark through the first two weeks. The Seahawks’ run blocking, broken into two-game segments, has graded -17.2, then -6.2, then -5.3, before finally breaking through with a +4.0 last week. The trend is likely to continue against a sub-par Cowboys run defense, and as sizable favorites (5.5 points), we can expect game script to dictate that Lynch is continually fed deep into the second half like last week.
RB Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals, $6,700 (No Price Change from Week 6)
The game has one of the highest projected totals of the week (48.5), and the division rivals have averaged a combined 52.3 points in their last three meetings. We want plenty of exposure, and on the Cincinnati side, we want it in the passing game. The Bengals are underdogs, the Steelers are weak in coverage (-29.9; 32nd), and have allowed 3.8 yards per carry to running backs over their last three games. They also have surrendered 20 catches on 24 targets to backs during that time, with a 10.5 yards-per-reception average.
The passing game work is clearly Bernard’s area, and despite Jeremy Hill’s snap percentage snapping back to 58 after a 22-percent Week 5 outing against Seattle, this matchup sets up differently. Bernard played 78 percent of snaps against the Seahawks, saw eight targets, and a hefty 15 rushing attempts (80 yards). Pittsburgh linebackers Jarvis Jones (-3.4), Ryan Shazier (-5.3), and Lawrence Timmons (-5.3) all grade among the worst coverage men at their position. With the Steelers (and DFSers) focusing on the Bengals’ abundance of other weapons, Bernard should be stealthily shred them.
RB Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers, $6,600 (-$100)
Stewart burned us repeatedly until we finally moved off of him, right before he ripped through the run defenses of the Seahawks and Eagles. Good times. The bright side is he’s healthier, his snap percentage is back up to the 70-percent range, and he set season-highs for rushing attempts in back-to-back weeks (20 and 24) while averaging 4.6 yards per carry, forcing nine missed tackles, and earning PFF’s top rushing grade by a wide margin (+7.3). The Panthers are so run-heavy (NFL-high 50.6 run
percentage) that even if they weren’t touchdown favorites, game script concerns would be minimal.
Stewart faces a Colts run defense (-11.0; 23rd) that now allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, despite an encouraging start to the season. In the last two games, they’ve been road-graded to the tune of 5.8 yards per carry (52 attempts) and four rushing touchdowns. Stewart’s passing game and goal line involvement remain inconsistent, although he does have 14 redzone carries in the last two games. With the Panthers cranking the no-huddle at home (31 percent of snaps since Week 12 bye last year), pace and play volume will be in his favor on Monday night.
WR A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals, $8,200 (+$100)
Whether you stack him with Andy Dalton or not, paying the freight for Green earns you exposure to a potential shootout and a moderately-owned stud. Those that pay all the way up for Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins will find it tricky to fit another $8,000-plus receiver without multiple punt plays. Green has been quiet over his last two games in large part because he had prohibitive matchups on the outside against Seahawks and Bills cornerbacks. That won’t be the case with the Steelers, against whom he averaged 13.5 targets, 9.5 catches, 153 yards, plus a touchdown, in two games last year.
On a per-game basis, Pittsburgh’s defense allows the sixth-most passing yards and the eighth-fewest rushing yards. Green moves all over the formation, but will most often be matched up with second-year player Ross Cockrell – who is the Steelers’ only regular cornerback with a positive pass coverage grade (+1.5). Hopefully people see that and stay away from Green, because it was mainly built in Week 3 against the Rams and Week 4 against the Ravens. Over the last three games, he’s allowed a 108.9 quarterback rating and his grade is -1.9 (79th of 109 cornerbacks).
WR Alshon Jeffery – Chicago Bears, $7,700 (+$300 from Week 6)
Before his Week 7 bye, Jeffery posted 11 targets, eight catches, 147 yards, and a score against the Lions. He was targeted from the Detroit six and 11 yard lines, and received a 27-percent overall target share from Jay Cutler, who is quietly playing the best football of his career under Adam Gase’s tutelage. Cutler registered a +3.3 passing grade even with Jeffery on the shelf. This matchup has a low projected total, but the Bears will do their part to increase the tempo (30.5 percent no-huddle; fourth-most) and play volume (73.7 per game over their last three).
When the Vikings faced a Chargers offense that went no-huddle on 29 percent of snaps in Week 3, they allowed a season-high 72 plays and an 18-target, 12-catch, 133-yard, two-touchdown day to Keenan Allen. One of those touchdowns came against Xavier Rhodes, who will likely be shadowing Jeffery. Rhodes is a promising young corner, but he’s been roasted on a regular basis. He has allowed four touchdowns, a 118.5 quarterback rating, and sports the 107th-“best” coverage grade (-9.4) out of 109 cornerbacks.
WR Donte Moncrief – Indianapolis Colts, $6,400 (-$100)
With just 34 yards on four receptions, Moncrief had a relatively disappointing Week 7 despite scoring another touchdown. It was the fifth time in a row he scored in a game started by Andrew Luck. Moncrief is also averaging 8.6 targets per game when Luck starts. Luck will start on Monday Night Football, and as a touchdown-underdog, will be throwing plenty. Since Moncrief didn’t live up to expectations last week, he has a seemingly tough matchup this week, and he offers salary relief with a two-score ceiling, it feels like we should stay on the train. There will be plenty of good seats available.
The key is that Carolina’s fifth-best pass coverage (+15.2) is disproportionately skewed by shut-down demon Josh Norman. His coverage grade is a league-best +14.1, and it’s not hard to do the math on what that means for the Panthers’ team mark. Norman hinted that he will shadow T.Y. Hilton, which leaves Moncrief in the softer hands of veteran Charles Tillman (-1.4 coverage grade; 63rd of 109 cornerbacks) when he’s lined up on the outside, and Bene Benwikere (-4.5; 95th) when he lines up in the slot (18.5 slot percentage this season).
WR Rueben Randle – New York Giants, $5,600 (-$100)
If you’re looking for a pseudo punt play wideout who still has a legitimate ceiling, Randle is the 38th-most expensive wideout and checks some boxes. Of course, one of those boxes is he’s repeatedly torched lineups, which will keep his ownership level as depressed as he’s made his DFS investors. But in a game with the second-highest projected total of the weekend slate, and with New York’s top wideout, Odell Beckham Jr., very likely to be shadowed by emerging cornerback Delvin Breaux, Randle is in a nice spot.
The Saints pass coverage, minus Breaux’s +7.9 grade, would rank eighth-worst, and their pass rush is third-worst (-7.2). Those rankings are eerily similar to the Giants’ marks (eighth-worst pass coverage and league-worst pass rush). Both run defenses and rushing offenses have been inconsistent. If Breaux shadows Beckham, Randle gets to run routes against a pile of dry leaves once known as Brandon Browner (-11.5; 109th of 109 cornerbacks). He is by no means a safe play, but Randle is prone to production spikes and makes for a nice pivot if you want a receiver to pair with Manning.
TE Gary Barnidge – Cleveland Browns, $6,300 (+$400)
To this point, Barnidge has been entirely matchup-proof. He posted 101 yards on six catches against the (now) eighth-stingiest fantasy tight end defense in St. Louis, one week after catching two touchdowns during a visit from the Broncos, who (now) allow the 11th-fewest points to his position. That came on the heels of his signature 10-target, eight-catch, 139-yard, one-touchdown bombing of the at-the-time best tight end defense in Baltimore. Arizona currently allows the fewest points per game to tight ends. If form holds, by next week they’ll allow the fifth-fewest.
The thing about the Cardinals tight end defense is they essentially haven’t played anyone. The closest they came to being challenged was from Martellus Bennett back in Week 2, except Cutler threw 12 passes before getting hurt (one was a 21-yarder to Bennett). Especially since they run a similar scheme to when Todd Bowles was there, let’s withhold judgment on if Arizona is a shut-down tight end defense until they face stiffer tests than those posed by New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. First let’s see them shut down The Barnburner.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,200 (No Price Change)
Seferian-Jenkins returned to practice for the first time in five weeks, and assuming he plays, it’s not a moment too soon. Tampa Bay will be without Vincent Jackson, who had averaged 7.6 targets in the five full games he played, as well as Louis Murphy (3.4 targets per full game). Seferian-Jenkins posted five catches, 110 yards, and two scores in his only healthy game, although 84 yards and one of those touchdowns came in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Not that there’s anything wrong with that for fantasy, especially with the Bucs seven-point road underdogs who will be throwing.
The Falcons run defense grades 11th-best (+11.6), and they allow the sixth-fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.7). On a per-game basis, they give up the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, as well as the seventh-most receptions (6.1) and ninth-most touchdowns (0.6). It’s a well-earned ranking that hasn’t been skewed by touchdown variance. Their top four linebackers, as well as strong safety William Moore, all have negative pass coverage grades. If Seferian-Jenkins is able to go, he offers a high-ceiling, low-cost option in a thin week for tight ends.