NFL Chalk Talk: Week 15
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
Quarterback
1. Russell Wilson $7000 vs. CLE: 17 percent
Last week, Jameis Winston was the highest-owned quarterback site-wide at just 14.9 percent. I expect a similar flat ownership spread this week at the position as there are a ton of quality options. But Wilson will likely be the most popular, as he’s scored at least 32 DK points in three straight games and the Seahawks have a mess at the running back position right now. I would not be surprised if Wilson / Doug Baldwin is the highest-owned stack this week as all the game-log lineup builders will be on it. I’d rather go naked Russ to try to differentiate a bit.
2. Carson Palmer $7000 at PHL: 13 percent
Palmer and Wilson being priced exactly the same is going to limit ownership on each. Note that Cam Newton and Tom Brady are each $7800, which will keep their traffic down as well. So it’s a nice time to get on Palmer, who is operating with a full set of healthy weaponry (Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown) and has an explosive former wide receiver playing every snap at running back (David Johnson). The Eagles also allow their opponents to run the most plays in the league (70.7) and both their outside corners (Byron Maxwell/Eric Rowe) are shaky/nursing injury.
3. Cam Newton $7800 at NYG: 10 percent
Tom Brady at $7800 will also have similar traffic. So will Blake Bortles and the flow-chart people will be on Matthew Stafford against the Saints. Again, ownership is going to be very flat at quarterback so I wouldn’t worry about it too much when making lineup decisions. Cam is obviously in a dream spot against a Giants defense that gives up the most pass yards per game in the league (308.4) by a wide margin. He just won’t be over-owned because his price is peaking and the tough pricing on DK this week makes it tough.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Philip Rivers 3 percent, Aaron Rodgers 6 percent, Derek Carr 2 percent, Matt Ryan 3 percent
Running Back
1. Brandon Bolden $3200 vs. TEN: 30 percent
DraftKings did a good job pricing up the “next man up” RBs this week. For example, Denard Robinson is $4600 even though he was the minimum $3000 last week. However, Bolden is one guy they didn’t adjust to reflect LeGarrette Blount’s season-ending hip injury. So with precious little value out there, a lot of people are going to take the risk with Bolden as the Pats’ new big back in a game they should be nursing a lead in the second half. There’s certainly room for a GPP fade here though, as the touchdowns could always go to Brady and the Patriots are always capable of doing strange things with running back usage.
2. Charcandrick West $4800 at BAL: 22 percent (if Spencer Ware is ruled out)
Note that Thomas Rawls was 21.6 percent owned last week at Baltimore at $5800. West would have a very similar projection – remember this is a guy that got 25.0 touches per game for three weeks before a hamstring injury sidelined him and Ware emerged. With the Ravens’ offense so injured and inept, we can expect the Chiefs to be running the clock out in the second half. The only reason West’s ownership won’t be higher is because Ware’s status remains murky and Tim Hightower ($3900) / Denard Robinson ($4600) will also have plenty of traffic.
3. Denard Robinson $4600 vs. ATL: 20 percent (if T.J. Yeldon is ruled out)
Robinson has a lot more juice than Tim Hightower and also plays better in the pass game. So I’d expect the former to slightly more owned even at $700 more. Of course, Robinson is priced at about the same level T.J. Yeldon ($4900) was. So if we’re going to be in love with Shoelace, let’s make sure it’s not just because he’s the new guy on the block. The same concerns we had about Yeldon (pass-happy offense, inconsistent red-zone usage) are the ones we should have about Robinson.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: LeSean McCoy 6 percent, Melvin Gordon 2 percent, Devonta Freeman 4 percent
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Wide Receiver
1. Doug Baldwin $5800 vs. CLE: 34 percent
Baldwin was 28.1 percent owned last week at $4500. The price jump of $1300 is massive, but everyone that used him last week is going to hop back on and people that had #regrets about not using him will chase. Again, I suspect Russell Wilson will be the most popular GPP stack this week. I think a fade is a nice play considering the 5’10/189 Baldwin has eight TDs in his last three games after scoring 18 TDs in the first 74 games of his career. There has to be a sharp regression coming soon.
2. Calvin Johnson $6900 at NO: 22 percent
Megatron’s price has dipped to its lowest point of the season in time for a matchup against everyone’s favorite flow-chart defense, the Saints. There are going to be a lot of Stafford/Calvin stacks out there even though Johnson has exactly one 100-yard game all year. Also note that Golden Tate is averaging 9.7 targets per game over the last month, ahead of Calvin’s 9.0. Johnson is likely to have a fine game and meet value, but I don’t think his ceiling is what people expect when they click his name. He’s not the explosive downfield threat he once was.
3. Julio Jones $8500 at JAX: 20 percent
With so many viable running backs in the $3k-$5K range, people are going to have money to spend at wide receiver. The problem is Antonio Brown is facing the most dominant pass defense in football, Odell Beckham has a date with Josh Norman, DeAndre Hopkins has been cold and has T.J. Yates and A.J. Green will be catching balls from A.J. McCarron. So even though Julio has been underperforming of late, he has by far the best matchup against a Jags defense that funnels action toward the pass. It should be a get well spot for Matt Ryan and Julio.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: DeAndre Hopkins 8 percent, Demaryius Thomas 7 percent, Randall Cobb 7 percent
Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski $7700 vs. TEN: 18 percent
Gronk proved his health last week, playing on 62.3 percent of the snaps and catching all four of his targets for 87 yards with a touchdown. This week, he’s practicing in full. Anytime Gronkowski is healthy and active, he’s going to be a popular play no matter how much he costs. That’s especially true when there aren’t a lot of great options at tight end and when the Patriots have a very plus matchup. I still am hesitate to pull the trigger on Gronk because the targets aren’t concentrated enough to be worth the $7700. He’s been under 20 DK points six times this season.
2. Jordan Reed $5900 vs. BUF: 14 percent
Reed got lost in the shuffle last week, as he was 3.0 percent owned while going off for 30.0 DK points. That won’t happen again. The matchup and price isn’t ideal, but Reed’s 9-120-1 from last week and his eight or more targets in four straight games will get people on him. And rightfully so – this is arguably the best route-runner at the tight end position and he’s also the Redskins’ go-to-guy in the red zone. DeSean Jackson (knee) appears to be operating at less than 100 percent
3. Greg Olsen $6900 at NYG: 12 percent
Most owners will realize Olsen is a bit overpriced. They’ll also realize there isn’t much else to get excited about at tight end and the Giants are arguably the worst in the league at defending the position. So assuming Olsen’s knee is fine, he will hit double-digit ownership just by default. I’d love to get on him here, but the fear is that the Panthers will ease back off him if they’re coasting. Olsen normally plays 100 percent of the snaps, an obvious huge boon to his value.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Heath Miller 3 percent, Antonio Gates 7 percent, Travis Kelce 5 percent, Zach Miller 5 percent