NFL Chalk Talk: Wild Card Round
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about. So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the $20 buy-in Milly Maker tournament on DraftKings. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Quarterback
1. Ben Roethlisberger $7,200 at CIN: 39 percent
Understanding overall scarcity is crucial on four-game slates. The key point is that owners aren’t forced to be price-sensitive. There are only two players on the entire slate priced over $8000 (DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown), so roster construction this week is somewhere between a straight pick ’em and a salary cap game. As for Big Ben, the spot isn’t ideal as the Bengals have handled him well this year and his road splits are well documented. But he’s also coming off his eighth 300-yard game of the season (among 12 games he finished) and is unlikely to have a running game with DeAngelo Williams (foot) doubtful. Ben is my favorite quarterback of the weekend.
2. Russell Wilson $7,000 at MIN: 25 percent
A lot of raw projections will show Roethlisberger and Wilson with a similar expectation. But I think the weather reports will skew ownership a lot. The national media is already latching onto the story as it will be zero degrees for kickoff in Minnesota Sunday, with wind chills dipping as low as negative-20 degrees. Cold temperatures don’t typically have a strong negative correlation with fantasy stats, but we don’t have much data on extreme conditions like this. All in all, Russ will likely be lighter owned than he should due to the weather.
3. Kirk Cousins $5,900 vs. GB: 18 percent
I’m expecting Cousins to be more popular than Aaron Rodgers because of pairings. There’s simply no one on the Packers owners will want to stack Rodgers with as Randall Cobb / Davante Adams are in the tank and James Jones / Richard Rodgers are boring. On the other hand, everyone will want to roster mega-chalk tight end Jordan Reed and many will be on high-ceiling wideout DeSean Jackson. Cousins certainly has flashed a ceiling as high as Ben or Russ lately, going over 30 DK points in Weeks 15 and 16. He would have had another 30-burger in Week 17 if he wasn’t rested in the second half.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Alex Smith 3 percent, Brian Hoyer 3 percent
Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson $7,300 vs. SEA: 25 percent
This is the worst slate I can ever remember for running backs. There are literally none I feel good about rostering. Given that fact and all the cap space people have, they are likely to gravitate toward the big name. Peterson still won’t be that highly owned because there’s a red “1st” next to his name on DraftKings, which represents Seattle’s rank against fantasy running backs. The bigger concern for me is game flow, as the Vikings are 5-point dogs. When this team gets behind, it’s very bad news for Peterson’s two-down skill set.
2. Marshawn Lynch $6,500 at MIN: 21 percent
Lynch has been out since Week 10 due to an abdomen injury. But informed owners know he took his time with rehab and should now be close to 100 percent. Lynch practiced in full on Wednesday and the coaches are saying they’ll ideally get him 20-25 carries. That would make sense, especially given their lack of faith in Christine Michael and Bryce Brown. Some people will be afraid to click Lynch’s name since he’s been out for so long, which will keep his ownership down. Note that Lynch’s playoff lines last year were 14-59-0 vs. CAR, 25-157-1 vs. GB and 24-102-1 against NE in the Super Bowl.
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint $3,900 at CIN: 20 percent (if DeAngelo Williams is inactive)
If you want to fit Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Ben Roethlisberger and Jordan Reed, you have to save money somewhere. Given how few quality options at running back there are this week, people are going to take a shot on the starting running back for the best offense on the slate – even if they’ve never heard of him. Toussaint is worth considering as a fade given the likelihood of a pass-centric gameplan, his capped skill set and the presence of Jordan Todman.
4. Eddie Lacy $4,500 at WAS: 12 percent
Fat Ed had a miserable season, culminating with three straight games under 61 yards with zero rushing touchdowns during that span. He is not a fun player to roster, especially with James Starks emerging from the doghouse to get 11 touches in Week 17. Still, Lacy has a starting job and a name which is enough to garner him some ownership on this slate.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Charcandrick West 8 percent, Gio Bernard 6 percent, Jeremy Hill 10 percent, Spencer Ware 6 percent
Wide Receiver
1. Antonio Brown $9,600 at CIN: 60 percent
The most common lineup construction this week will feature Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Jordan Reed along with two cheap running backs. I also think that’s the most optimal lineup construction from a raw points perspective. Of course, football is very #hard to predict and the Bengals did do a reasonable job on Brown in Week 14 as he was held to 7-87-0 on 10 targets. Adam Jones and Leon Hall have been doing an excellent job on receivers all year. That said, a fade is only as good as the guys we can pivot to. It’s hard to get off Brown given what we’re presented with this week.
2. DeAndre Hopkins $8,400 vs. KC: 42 percent
On a normal slate, I wouldn’t be on Hopkins very much. The Chiefs have Sean Smith on one side, a greatly improved Marcus Peters on the other and are getting dominant edge rusher Justin Houston back. That’s bad news for Brian Hoyer’s protection as his left tackle Duane Brown (quad) is out. Hopkins has also trailed off after his torrid start, only posting two 100-yard games across his last 10. All that said, his targets are way up the last few weeks (11.3 per game) and this is a good-weather game. There’s a big ceiling.
3. Jeremy Maclin $6,400 vs. HOU: 35 percent
This is a difficult spot for Maclin as well. He’s likely to see a ton of PFF’s No. 4 coverage CB Johnathan Joseph while Alex Smith will ideally only throw 20-25 passes. Of course, Maclin has been seeing around 35 percent of Smith’s attempts and getting a majority of the red-zone work, so there’s still appeal here. It’s also a good-weather game. But given the matchup, we could argue Maclin will be a little overowned. I also think DeSean Jackson, A.J. Green and Doug Baldwin will be in the 20-25 percent range.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Martavis Bryant 8 percent, Markus Wheaton 7 percent, Marvin Jones 2 percent, Pierre Garcon 6 percent
Tight End
1. Jordan Reed $6,300 vs. GB: 65 percent – The cat is out of the bag on Jordan Reed. After people mistakenly played Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce over him all year, they’ll be trying to make up for lost time. I do like Tyler Eifert this week, but I don’t think fading Reed is a strong play given his role both between the 20s and at the goal-line.
2. Tyler Eifert $5,000 vs. PIT: 20 percent – I love using pass-catchers against the Steelers. Their underrated run defense forces opponents to pass and Ben Roethlisberger forces opponents to keep their foot on the gas if they want to keep up. Eifert only played 58.5 percent of the snaps last week as he came off a concussion, but still put up a 4-51-1 line up. Expect around 100 percent of the snaps this week. If I was going to pivot off Reed, Eifert is where I’d turn.
3. Travis Kelce $4,500 at HOU: 8 percent – I also think Heath Miller, who has torched the Bengals in two meeting this year, will be in the 7-10 percent range. As for Kelce, we can try to cling to a Week 1 meeting at Houston in which he went off for 6-106-2. Of course, things are far different now as Houston has one of the hottest defenses in the league. Still, Kelce’s special skill set does give him a different ceiling than everyone outside of Reed and Eifert on this slate.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Richard Rodgers 3 percent, Kyle Rudolph 3 percent