NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 11
Justin Fields and Cole Kmet cannot be stopped, as they were the best QB-TE combo for the second week in a row and have a chance to three-peat as they get the Falcons this week. We saw huge performances from Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Christian Watson, and Christian Kirk so hopefully you had a few of those guys in your lineups as it was hard to win GPPs without Fields, Kmet, and at least 2-3 of the six names mentioned. Week 11 will see the Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Buccaneers on bye, and at first glance it’s looking like salaries have gotten a lot tighter, so hopefully injury news later in the week will open up some nice value options. The Browns-Bills game is also being moved to Detroit’s stadium, so no need to worry about bad weather for that one anymore.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal-line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside. I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for Week 11, how likely guys who missed week 10 are going to play in Week 11, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of Sunday and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for Week 11 include Cooper Kupp, JaMarr Chase, Michael Thomas, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Jerry Jeudy, Dallas Goedert, Corey Davis, Gus Edwards, Josh Reynolds, Khalil Herbert, Mark Ingram, Daniel Bellinger, JD McKissic, and KJ Hamler.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The biggest news is Cooper Kupp who is having surgery on his injured ankle and will miss at minimum four week and potentially the rest of the year. Allen Robinson becomes the WR1 while Higbee, Jefferson, and Skowronek will all see increased target shares. Hopefully Matt Stafford is able to clear the concussion protocol this week, as it would be hard to trust any Rams pass catchers with Wolford under center on the road in New Orleans.
- Another big piece of news is PJ Walker out with an ankle injury and Baker Mayfield being announced as the starter with Darnold as his backup. It’s a tough road matchup in Baltimore, but the Panthers should be forced to throw more this game, making Moore and Marshall decent cheap WRs to target.
- We’ll see if Gus Edwards or Mark Andrews are able to play after getting an extra week of rest on the bye, and if both are active it would take Kenyan Drake and Isaiah Likely off the fantasy radar. If Edwards sits, I’d definitely consider Drake a top RB target in a great matchup with Carolina, while Likely would be a top TE target if Andrews sits.
- Jerry Jeudy has an outside chance of playing this week, but if he ends up out with his ankle injury, then Courtland Sutton becomes a top play of the slate, as he saw 11 targets last week and draws a great matchup with the Raiders. Kendall Hinton would become the WR2 and be a decent value play while Greg Dulcich would be in line for a great shot at a bounce back week after disappointing last week.
- Khalil Herbert went on IR, so Trestan Ebner will be the RB2 behind David Montgomery, who should see a boost in touches.
- Dallas Goedert is out with a shoulder injury so Jake Stoll and Grant Calcaterra will be the top TEs for Philly, but this will mainly benefit AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.
- Matt Ryan was announced as the starter over Ehlinger right before the Colts game started last week, so he should continue to start now, which greatly benefits Pittman and Campbell, and we’ll see if Deon Jackson is able to return to back up Taylor.
- JaMarr Chase remains out so Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd keep their higher ceilings as the top WRs, and we’ll see if Ezekiel Elliott is able to return for Dallas; otherwise Tony Pollard will be a top play again, especially on DK for $6,500.
- My favorite game stacks are DAL/MIN, CHI/ATL, DET/NYG, and CIN/PIT.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- We have four elite running QBs as the top projected p/$ plays in Lamar Jackson ($8,400), Jalen Hurts ($8,800), Josh Allen ($9,200), and Justin Fields ($8,700), and I can’t argue against using any of them as your cash game QB this week. I truly believe in momentum and players’ confidence, and none have more of both right now than Justin Fields, who has rushed for over 300 yards over his last two starts and draws another excellent matchup with Atlanta. He still hasn’t had more than 28 pass attempts in a game this year but has managed to throw for seven TDS over his last three games, so we truly still haven’t seen his ceiling when he sees 35+ pass attempts while ripping off a couple long rushing TDs.
- Other QBs I like at cheaper prices include Dak Prescott ($7,500), Daniel Jones ($7,800), Marcus Mariota ($7,200), Kirk Cousins ($7,600), Derek Carr ($7,000), Russell Wilson ($6,900), and Kenny Pickett ($6,900).
- At RB, my top p/$ plays are Dameon Pierce ($7,600), Alvin Kamara ($7,500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($8,100), Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,700), David Montgomery ($6,200), and Devin Singletary ($6,400).
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Terry McLaurin ($7,300), Courtland Sutton ($7,000), Tyler Boyd ($6,800), DJ Moore ($6,700), Allen Robinson ($6,600), Darius Slayton ($6,300), Diontae Johnson ($6,300), Darnell Mooney ($6,000), George Pickens ($6,000), Adam Thielen ($6,000), Drake London ($5,700), and Kendall Hinton ($5,200).
- At TE we don’t have Travis Kelce or George Kittle on the main slate so Mark Andrews ($7,700) is the clear top spend up option if he’s active. I will likely go cheaper though in cash games with either Cole Kmet ($5,700), Pat Freiermuth ($5,400), Dalton Schultz ($5,900), Greg Dulcich ($5,500), or Kyle Pitts ($5,500).
- The Ravens ($4,700), Eagles ($4,800), Bills ($4,500), and Saints ($4,100) are my top defenses this week and I also like the Commanders ($4,000) for a slightly cheaper option.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Justin Fields ($7,600) remains my top QB for cash games as he’s $600+ cheaper than Lamar, Hurts, and Allen with just as much if not way more upside. Daniel Jones ($5,700) is my favorite cheap QB option in a nice matchup at home against Detroit while Marcus Mariota ($5,500), Kenny Pickett ($5,300), and Russell Wilson ($5,800) are other cheap QBs I like for the price.
- Dameon Pierce ($6,500) and Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,700) are my favorite p/$ RBs currently while Joe Mixon ($7,400) will also be an extremely popular play after going for five TDs last game, and his price went up only $900. David Montgomery ($6,100) is also a solid cheap RB option with Herbert out of the picture while Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,200) is one of my favorite GPP targets after putting up a dud game last Thursday.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Kendall Hinton ($3,600) if Jeudy is out, Terry McLaurin ($5,900), Courtland Sutton ($6,000), DJ Moore ($5,700), Darnell Mooney ($5,400), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,600), Allen Robinson ($5,600), Darius Slayton ($5,000), Parris Campbell ($4,300), and George Pickens ($5,200).
- At TE, I’m locking in Cole Kmet ($4,100) as his price and matchup is just too good given his upside with Fields and I’d rather not spend up on Mark Andrews ($6,800). Freiermuth, Schultz, Dulcich, Pitts, and Moreau are other cheap punts to consider.
- For defense, I’m going with the Saints ($3,000) and Commanders ($3,100) for value while the Ravens ($4,000), Eagles ($3,900), and Bills ($3,800) are my favorite spend ups.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL Twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn