NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 4

Hopefully you survived the injury-riddled NFL DFS week 3 with some solid cashes as we saw David Montgomery first half exit end a lot of lineups early while Dalvin Cook also had to leave early ending what could have been a much bigger day. We’re going to have a bunch of WRs with questionable tags this week so a lot of value at the position should continue to open up towards the weekend and with D’Andre Swift likely out and Montgomery potentially out we could see a huge chunk of ownership land on Jamaal Williams and Khalil Herbert so RB variation in tournaments is going to be fun as we should be able to get some big names at much lower ownership.

This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating an RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NFL DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 4, how likely guys who missed week 3 are to play week 4, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 4 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

Important guys on the main slate who are out for week 4 be it suspension or injury are Dak Prescott, Mac Jones, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, DJ Chark, Keenan Allen, Hunter Renfrow, David Montgomery, Jakobi Meyers, AJ Green, Zay Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson, Pharaoh Brown, Jake Kumerow, Donald Parham, Jalen Guyton, Brevin Jordan, and Brian Robinson.

Christian McCaffrey is the biggest questionable player although it would be hard to trust Chuba Hubbard or D’Onta Foreman in a cash game as they will likely split work but his absence would make me more interested in DJ Moore.

The Giants are already a mess at WR with Shepard out for the year, Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney both out for this week, and Kenny Golladay seemingly to have forgotten how to play football so we will be looking at David Sills and Richie James as the top WRs with Darius Slayton in the mix too.

NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks

Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

The biggest names missing are D’Andre Swift and Mac Jones and the biggest new name we see is Zach Wilson who has a good chance to return this week. With Swift likely out Jamaal Williams is going to be an extremely chalky play in cash games especially for $6,100 on DK as he saw 22 touches and 2 TDs last week with Swift banged up (Khalil Herbert will be in a similar position if Montgomery ends up out for CHI). Brian Hoyer is the Pats new starting QB which will make any of his pass catchers very hard to trust especially on the road in Green Bay and if Zach Wilson does end up starting we could see Elijah Moore return to his #1 role while Garrett Wilson will definitely still be heavily involved but potentially not as much as with Flacco.

Michael Gallup is another big name that has a chance to make his season debut although he will likely be eased in the first few games he plays so I wouldn’t use him in DFS until he starts getting a normal workload but his presence will make guys like Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz see a bit lower target ceilings. Lastly in the ARI/CAR game we don’t see Green as as he’s out so Brown, Dortch, and Ertz should be looking at massive target shares (if Rondale Moore also ends up out) and for CAR it’s worth noting Laviska Shenault should continue to be active after starting over Marshall last week and responding with over 15 FP.

NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

  • At RB, we see Saquon Barkley ($8,100) as the top projected p/$ play against a Bears defense that just allowed big weeks to Jones and Pierce on the ground, and with his rushing, passing, and goal-line volume, he is about as safe a cash game RB as you can get. Jonathan Taylor ($8,700) is the next best p/$ projected RB as his price is $1,500 lower than it was week 1, so if you have the salary to fit in both him and Barkley, you’re setting yourself up for a high floor and insanely high ceiling with two studs at discounted salaries.
  • The Packers ($5,000) are my top overall defense against a Pats team sitting on a team total below 15 right now, while the Cardinals ($3,200) are my favorite super cheap defense. I also like the Chargers ($4,400), Eagles ($4,600), and Steelers ($4,800) DSTs.

Looking at DraftKings:

  • Marcus Mariota ($5,600) is the current best p/$ projected QB, as he’s averaging around 18 FPPG and his ability to score through the air and on the ground gives him a pretty high floor and a really high ceiling if he starts connecting more with Pitts in the end zone or scrambles for a couple rushing TDs. If more extreme value opens up at other positions I will likely go with one of the expensive QBs in Hurts, Allen, Jackson, or Murray in cash games, but Mariota is definitely my favorite cheap option.
  • Josh Jacobs ($5,500) is the current top p/$ projected RB, but I will likely steer clear in a tough matchup with Denver. Saquon Barkley ($8,000) is the next highest p/$ play and is a great option if you can fit him, but I will be starting my cash team with Jamaal Williams ($6,100), as he is just too cheap for his projected volume in a nice matchup with Seattle. I will also be locking in Khalil Herbert ($5,700) if Montgomery gets ruled out, while Antonio Gibson ($6,000), Dameon Pierce ($5,600), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,200), and Devin Singletary ($5,900) are other cheap RBs I like.
  • Zach Ertz ($4,700) remains my favorite TE for the price while Kyle Pitts ($5,000) is at a great price to consider going with two TEs in cash games. I also love the salary of David Njoku ($3,700) coming off a monster game in a nice matchup with ATL this week, while Mark Andrews ($7,100) is always in play if you have the salary and don’t want to mess around with riskier cheap options.
  • For defense I will be using the Packers ($4,100) in cash but don’t mind going with the Cardinals ($2,800) for much cheaper.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.

NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.

Good luck this week!

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

  • Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan)

  • Erik Wardenburg, fantasy alias Naapstermaan, has been playing fantasy sports since 2005 and DFS since 2010. He’s made multiple live finals in MLB, NBA, and NFL on a variety of sites and enjoys grinding small/medium stakes every day.

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