NFL Grind Down: Christmas Day
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Pittsburgh Steelers | Houston Texans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | 44 | 26.75 | 9.5 | 44 | 17.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.6 | 9 | 2 | 21 | Offense | 22.8 | 14 | 16 | 15 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.1 | 32 | 27 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 7 | 5 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 31 | 7 | 29 | 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 17 | 9 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith-Schuster | 62 | 43 | 5 | 699 | Hopkins | 168 | 92 | 12 | 1,313 | |
| Bryant | 73 | 41 | 3 | 478 | Fuller | 43 | 25 | 7 | 396 | |
| Rogers | 31 | 16 | 1 | 142 | Miller | 23 | 16 | 1 | 148 | |
| James | 61 | 41 | 3 | 363 | Anderson | 49 | 24 | 1 | 338 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Antonio Brown (PIT WR) – Out (Calf)
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger has been putting up huge numbers this month, and this is a fine matchup against a rapidly declining Houston defense. Blake Bortles and Jimmy Garoppolo have each thrown for more than 325 yards the last two weeks against this secondary. However, the loss of Antonio Brown will undoubtedly hurt this passing game. Despite that loss, Roethlisberger still remains the safest quarterback of the four guys slinging it on Christmas Day. If you have the salary available, fire up Big Ben with confidence in all formats.
Running Backs: Play Le’Veon Bell. We couldn’t ask for better circumstances for production. The Steelers get to face a Texans team that has given up on the season and probably doesn’t want to play on Christmas Day, and Bell should get some more looks with Antonio Brown on the shelf. Also, Bell was a top running back producer on a weekly basis even with Brown healthy. This is a no brainer. His ability to contribute in both the running and passing game combined with his workhorse role make him the safest play on the board, and they also give him a very high ceiling. Try to find a way to squeeze him into your lineups. He’s a must play in cash games.
Pass Catchers: With Antonio Brown sidelined, we can grab some value in the Pittsburgh passing game. Brown leads the NFL in targets, so those naturally have to go somewhere. Bell can’t pick up THAT many more targets in the passing game, so guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant, and possibly even Eli Rogers enter the DFS conversation. Smith-Schuster has been a great surprise all year long and would seem to be the best option of the bunch. In addition, Jesse James is a viable play at tight end on a two game slate. Maybe he’ll be motivated after getting his potential game-winning touchdown overturned last week. However you want to slice it, you need to target at least one player from this group on the two game slate. There isn’t a ton of value on this slate, and this is the best spot to find it.
The Takeaway: The Steelers are the most attractive offense on the Monday slate. Roethlisberger and Bell are the top plays at their respective positions, while there is value in the pass catching group because Antonio Brown is out. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant, and a few others can be considered as solid plays.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: T.J. Yates really struggled last week against the Jaguars, completing just 12 of 31 passes with an underwhelming overall stat line. The talent of DeAndre Hopkins will help keep Yates afloat, but this is not a cakewalk of a matchup, either. Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been more vulnerable of late, giving Yates some hope here, but it’s still quite the dice roll to put Yates into lineups. Even on a two game slate, I can’t really go here.
Running Backs: Lamar Miller got taken out of last week’s game thanks to a massively negative game flow, and that could very well be the case again this week. Alfred Blue actually ended up out-carrying Miller twelve to nine against the Jaguars. Miller’s statistics are flat out underwhelming this year, as he is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has just three rushing touchdowns. With his workload less than secure, poor quarterback play that won’t keep defenses honest, and another likely negative game script, I shall likely pass on Miller in Week 16.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins is just a machine. He will produce no matter who is throwing him the ball. You can fire him up as a top play at wide receiver, especially on the thin two game slate. It is somewhat difficult to fit him into lineups since there isn’t a lot of great value, but I am hesitant to opt for the all out fade. Everyone else from this receiving corps is out of cash game consideration with Yates under center, but I suppose you could consider Will Fuller as a massive risk/reward play in tournaments. He could go without a catch, or he could bust a big play.
The Takeaway: This will be an uphill battle for the Texans. The only player we can really trust is DeAndre Hopkins, who produces weekly despite the rest of his team being a dumpster fire. You can maybe make a case for Will Fuller as a risk/reward play, but that’s about where the upside ends. There’s not much to love here with Yates at quarterback.
| Oakland Raiders | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 47 | 19 | -9 | 47 | 28 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.1 | 22 | 17 | 25 | Offense | 31.3 | 1 | 11 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 8 | 23 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 23.1 | 19 | 22 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 2 | 20 | 16 | Oakland Raiders | 18 | 20 | 10 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Crabtree | 96 | 56 | 8 | 601 | Jeffery | 116 | 56 | 9 | 781 | |
| Cooper | 86 | 42 | 5 | 499 | Agholor | 85 | 55 | 8 | 722 | |
| Roberts | 53 | 35 | 1 | 384 | Smith | 60 | 35 | 2 | 425 | |
| Cook | 80 | 50 | 2 | 637 | Ertz | 94 | 63 | 8 | 719 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Amari Cooper (OAK WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
OAK Matchup Rating: 4.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 7.0
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Derek Carr is coming off a serviceable performance on Sunday night against the Cowboys, but the massive numbers just haven’t been there this year. His decline has been somewhat reminiscent of what we have seen out of Matt Ryan, but injuries have played a role in Carr’s struggles. This is a tough road date against the Eagles, as well. I would roster Carr before I rostered T.J. Yates, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. Proceed with caution.
Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch ran well against the Cowboys, but the overall ugly nature of that game prevented it from being a bigger day. He did average a strong 4.8 yards per carry on a healthy 16 totes, and the workload should continue to be there. However, there is about a 95% chance that the Raiders will officially be eliminated from playoff contention based on Sunday’s results. That does add a lot of risk to Lynch in this spot, as who knows what is going through that guy’s brain. There’s a reasonable chance that he will be limited if the Raiders are officially out. Keep an eye on the news after Sunday’s games before locking Lynch into your lineups. Hopefully we can get some clarity on the situation.
Pass Catchers: The Raiders will at least be a little more healthy in the pass catching department this week, as Amari Cooper will return from his ankle injury to give it a go here. He has already aggravated the injury once, and high ankle sprains are notoriously tricky, especially for wide receivers. I can’t count on Cooper in a tough matchup. Michael Crabtree should continue to lead this team in targets, as he has a whopping 30 of them over the last two weeks. The results haven’t been there thanks to Carr’s struggles and Crabtree’s drop issues, though. Still, if you are looking to take an Oakland receiver this week, Crabtree is the guy you want. Jared Cook is on the radar at tight end simply because it’s a two game slate, but he has also underwhelmed all year.
The Takeaway: This isn’t a great matchup for Oakland, and the fact that they are likely to get eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday adds risk to their skill players. Derek Carr has struggled all year, and Amari Cooper is far from 100% even though he will play this week. Marshawn Lynch is a reasonable option assuming he isn’t limited (if the Raiders get eliminated from the playoffs), while Michael Crabtree should continue to soak up targets. However, it’s worth noting that Oakland’s team total of 19 points is only one point higher than Houston’s. The Eagles defense is a strong option here.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Nick Foles was the top value quarterback on last week’s slate, and I was surprised to see how low owned he was (especially on FanDuel, where he was dirt cheap). You can bet that Foles will garner more attention on this slate, especially with there being just two games available. I will slot him in as the second best quarterback on the slate behind only Ben Roethlisberger. As I wrote last week, it’s not like Foles is a rookie making his first NFL starts. He has plenty of history starting NFL games, and he lit up the Giants for four touchdown passes a week ago. This is an enticing matchup against a weak Raiders pass defense, so Foles could keep the good times rolling as the Eagles fight for the top seed in the NFC playoffs.
Running Backs: Head coach Doug Pederson admitted that Jay Ajayi is slowly going to work his way into a larger snap count, and he has held true to that word. Ajayi’s snaps have gone up in four consecutive games, and he played on at least half the snaps for the first time as a member of the Eagles last week. The numbers weren’t there, as Foles racked up the touchdowns, but Ajayi did manage 89 scrimmage yards on 14 touches. I would expect that role to continue to steadily grow in this one, but his numbers have left something to be desired. Ajayi is in play as a viable option on a two game slate, but be mindful that there is plenty of risk involved.
Pass Catchers: The primary receiving options in Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Zach Ertz all caught touchdown passes against the Giants last week. Jeffery has now found the end zone in six of the last seven games. He’s a strong option against a subpar Oakland secondary. You can also bank on the upside of Agholor, who is worth a look as a reasonably-priced value. Ertz is easily the top overall option at tight end on this slate, but you could potentially make a case for a GPP fade at extreme ownership. That’s a risk/reward decision that a lot of people will be weighing. All other things being equal, this is certainly a passing offense that we want to target. There’s a little more risk with Foles under center instead of Wentz, but that’s not enough to take them out of play with just two games available.
The Takeaway: Philadelphia will likely win this game comfortably, but you just never know in the NFL. It took four touchdowns from Foles for the Eagles to beat the Giants a week ago. All the primary options are in play here, from Foles to Ajayi to a few wide receivers and Zach Ertz. On a two game slate, you will need exposure to the Eagles in a home game against a bad defense. The Eagles are projected to score a healthy 28 points in this game, which is the highest mark of the teams playing on Monday.