NFL Grind Down: Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Houston Texans | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 15.5 | -7 | 38 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.2 | 7 | 17 | 6 | Offense | 21.1 | 18 | 32 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.1 | 3 | 2 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 26.2 | 30 | 28 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 13 | 2 | 20 | Houston Texans | 32 | 1 | 29 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 115 | 62 | 9 | 879 | Maclin | 47 | 31 | 3 | 344 | |
| Fuller | 33 | 17 | 7 | 326 | Wallace | 39 | 24 | 3 | 323 | |
| Ellington | 46 | 25 | 2 | 294 | Moore | 20 | 6 | 1 | 96 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 12 | 8 | 0 | 74 | Watson | 50 | 39 | 2 | 294 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will Fuller (HOU WR) – Out (Ribs)
HOU Matchup Rating: 2.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 4.5
Houston Texans
Quarterback: This is one ugly football game, but it somehow has big AFC playoff implications. Prior to this week, the Ravens would have checked in as the #6 seed in the AFC… with a 5-5 record. The Texans sit at 4-6, so both teams are still alive for the right to get blasted in a playoff game. Tom Savage has not cleared 230 passing yards in any of his starts, and he has just four touchdowns to three interceptions so far. In a road matchup against a Ravens defense that is allowing just 192 passing yards per game and owns a league-leading 16 interceptions, Savage is not a fantasy option in any format — and that includes the two game prime time slates. Find another option.
Running Backs: The Ravens have been more vulnerable on the ground this year, allowing over 120 yards per game to opposing rushing attacks. However, a lot of that production came when run-stuffing defensive tackle Brandon Williams was injured. They are a much improved group now, and they are not a team that I want to mess with that much. Lamar Miller continues to dominate the snaps, but with this being a difficult matchup in which Houston could very well fall behind, I am not that interested in him this week.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins is obviously super talented, and he is capable of rising above any matchup, as he did last week with 76 receiving yards and a score against Patrick Peterson. The price tag is a little high for my liking, especially given the poor quarterback play and difficult opponent, but Hopkins is always a potential difference-maker in a GPP setting. I am not going to actively talk you off him, and he does benefit if Houston falls behind and is forced to the air. Bruce Ellington remains a viable value play if Will Fuller is out again, as he posted a solid 6/63 line a week ago against the Cardinals. I would not play Hopkins and Ellington on the same lineup, though, as there likely won’t be enough production to go around for both of them against a good pass defense.
The Takeaway: The Texans are one of the least appealing teams to target this week. and they carry a 15 point team total that matches one of the lowest figures of the week. Hopkins and Ellington are the only players that are DFS options for me, and that assumes that Will Fuller is out again. The Baltimore defense is an appealing target on all slates.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Well, this could be one of the worst quarterback matchups we have seen all season, and it occurs in a nationally televised Monday night game! Woo hoo! Joe Flacco has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year and does not have a single 300+ yard passing game. The logic is very simple here, so let’s break it down:
A) If you are playing a full week slate, avoid both quarterbacks in this game.
B) If you are playing the Sunday/Monday night slate, avoid both quarterbacks in this game and take someone from Sunday night.
C) If you are playing the Monday/Thursday night slate, avoid both quarterbacks in this game and take someone from Thursday night.
Running Backs: The Baltimore backfield has been a giant mess all season long, and the return of Danny Woodhead is only going to clutter that up even more. However, it is worth noting that Alex Collins logged 20 carries last week against the Packers. The bad news is that he only turned those carries into 49 yards rushing. Game flow played a large part in that increased role, but it is possible that the Ravens are able to play with a lead again this week. Collins played on 64% of the offensive snaps and appears to be the favorite for early down work going forward. If you are choosing between the three bodies, Collins is the preferred fantasy play, but he is by no means a safe option.
Pass Catchers: Houston’s pass defense has deteriorated since they lost their top pass rusher in J.J. Watt, and they allowed Blaine Gabbert to rack up 257 yards and three touchdowns last week. The issue is that Joe Flacco has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year. They have only had one 100+ yard receiving game from any individual pass catcher this year (Mike Wallace against the Raiders). You can certainly target Maclin or Wallace on the shorter slates simply because the matchup is favorable and there aren’t many options, but I would shy away from this Baltimore pass catching group on the full week slates.
The Takeaway: There’s not a lot to like here in what could be the ugliest game of the week. You might be forced into taking a player from the Ravens on the shorter prime time slates, but it’s not pretty. Alex Collins and the two starting wide receivers in Wallace and Maclin are the strongest plays of the group. Keep in mind, though, that this is most definitely not a whole-hearted recommendation.
It is also worth noting that, if you are playing the Sunday/Monday night prime time slate, good luck finding a tight end you like. None of the four teams utilize the tight end a ton, and all the options have limited upside.
Thursday Night Quick Hits – Cowboys/Redskins
1) Given how ugly the Monday game is, you will probably find yourself rostering more of your skill players from the Thursday game. The Thursday game includes a scuffling Dallas team, though, so this is a tough slate.
2) Kirk Cousins will be the top quarterback option, almost by default. Dak Prescott is struggling, and it’s tough to endorse Flacco or Savage on Monday. Cousins has been playing with confidence, amassing 566 passing yards and five touchdowns over the last two weeks. He’s a strong play in all formats, with the inconsistent Prescott being a boom/bust GPP only option.
3) In the backfield, Samaje Perine might also be the top option on this two game slate. He filled in very nicely on Thanksgiving, rushing for 100 yards on a healthy 24 carries. He even caught three passes out of the backfield. He played on over 70% of the snaps, and Byron Marshall does not appear to be a major threat at this point. That may change if the Redskins get behind here, but it’s tough to endorse Marshall yet.
4) The Dallas backfield remains a mess. Alfred Morris has played on less than 40% of the snaps in every game since Ezekiel Elliott got suspended, but Dallas has been playing from behind a lot. Morris and Rod Smith are both GPP-only, risk/reward options. Dallas did rush for 169 yards as a team in the first meeting between these teams, but this is not the same Dallas team.
5) Has Dez Bryant been the biggest fantasy disappointment of 2017? He seems to lack burst, and he has barely caught 50% of the targets that have come his way. He will also have to deal with Washington’s solid corners in this game. I can’t endorse him despite the track record of success. Cole Beasley might be a decent value target in this game, as he could see plenty of targets in more favorable individual matchups.
6) Jamison Crowder broke out with a huge game on Thanksgiving and is locked in as a top receiving option. He’s right there with the likes of DeAndre Hopkins as the top receiver on this ugly slate. Josh Doctson played on every single snap against the Giants and caught a late touchdown. He is also in play here. I will have plenty of exposure to both Crowder and Doctson.
7) Washington ranks 24th in DVOA against tight ends, while Dallas ranks 23rd in that department. You can make a case for both Jason Witten and Vernon Davis (If Jordan Reed remains out, which is to be expected at this point). I will definitely be using my tight end from this game, as Baltimore and Houston don’t utilize the position all that much.
8) The Ravens are still my favorite defense on the slate, though you could make a case for Washington with how broken the Cowboys are right now.
See you next week!