NFL Grind Down: Turkey Day Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
| Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.1 | 10 | 13 | 11 | Offense | 27.1 | 6 | 6 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.4 | 19 | 20 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 17.2 | 4 | 12 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 14 | 28 | 13 | 16 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 2 | 12 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 53 | 35 | 5 | 532 | Tate | 75 | 59 | 3 | 691 | |
| Thielen | 96 | 62 | 3 | 917 | Jones | 71 | 38 | 6 | 622 | |
| Treadwell | 25 | 14 | 0 | 152 | Golladay | 21 | 11 | 2 | 218 | |
| Rudolph | 61 | 42 | 3 | 366 | Ebron | 46 | 24 | 2 | 283 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.0
DET Matchup Rating: 5.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Welcome to the Turkey Day Grind Down! We are posting this as a separate article this week given the fact that the Thanksgiving Day games are basically treated like their own little Thursday slate. On to the goodness we go! Mike Zimmer has to keep confirming it every week, but Case Keenum should be considered the starting quarterback of this team until further notice. He’s earned it, and he performed very well against a stout Rams defense on Sunday. A similarly difficult matchup awaits here against the Lions, but Keenum has proven his worth on several occasions. With Stefon Diggs healthy and Adam Thielen thriving, Keenum has enough playmakers to maintain fantasy relevance in an Alex Smith type mold, but with perhaps a touch more upside. Keenum won’t be my first choice on this slate given the fact that he is on the road against a good team, but he’s certainly in the conversation at quarterback.
Running Backs: Latavius Murray has given me the big “not so fast my friend” with my continuous rambling in here about how McKinnon is the running back that needs to be getting more touches on this team. While I still stand firm in my assessment, the fact remains that Murray has put up better numbers over the last few weeks. Despite not playing on more than 50% of the snaps in a single game this season, Murray has found the end zone three times over the past two contests. He remains affordable for DFS purposes and is certainly on the radar as a cheap RB play on this slate. However, there are a lot of viable cheap running backs (especially for a three game slate). Murray doesn’t top the list for me, especially given the matchup. However, he deserves more respect than I have given him. Jerick McKinnon still carries plenty of upside, even in the nearly 50/50 time share, but he doesn’t come at as much of a value price tag. If you think the Vikings could fall behind in this game, McKinnon carries more appeal. Both backs are decent GPP options.
Pass Catchers: I don’t think anybody really expected this kind of breakout for Adam Thielen in 2017. He has been absolutely fantastic for the Vikings, especially with Case Keenum under center. He will also likely avoid top Detroit corner Darius Slay for the most part, unless the Lions choose to have Slay shadow Thielen, which seems unlikely given where they generally line up. Slay should see more of Stefon Diggs, who has been up and down this year as he has battled injuries. Thielen is a significantly safer play this week, but Diggs carries underrated GPP appeal if you want to pivot off the likely popular play. Fitting rosters under the salary cap will not be a difficult thing on this slate, especially with all the value at running back. As such, most DFS players will likely pay up for Thielen, making Diggs more appealing in GPPs. The matchup with Slay does worry me, however. Kyle Rudolph has been relatively quiet this year, but he remains a solid red zone target that could very well end up being the top tight end scorer on a three game slate if he finds the end zone. Don’t sleep on him here.
The Takeaway: Minnesota has a lot of good, but not great, plays. It’s tough to play a road game on Thanksgiving on a short week, so the road teams get a slight downgrade for me here. The running backs carry some appeal, but the time share drags them both down a little bit. Murray is a solid cash game option given his involvement in the red zone, while McKinnon has GPP upside (and more upside if you think Minnesota will be playing from behind). The passing game is also in play, as Case Keenum continues to play solid football. Adam Thielen should avoid Darius Slay and is the obvious selection here, while Stefon Diggs carries risk/reward GPP appeal. Kyle Rudolph is a sneaky play at tight end, and I think he finds the end zone this week.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford had another solid game against the Bears last week, throwing for 299 yards and a pair of scores while not throwing an interception. He is now up to a solid 19/5 TD/INT ratio on the year, and he has tossed for multiple scores in three of his last four contests. This is a difficult matchup against a solid Vikings pass defense that has allowed just 10 touchdown passes in 11 games, and Stafford’s price is now elevated on virtually every site. That makes him more of a secondary option here, but the potential is certainly there despite the matchup. If you are curious about his history on Thanksgiving, as I was, Stafford has a 3-3 record with 1,987 yards, 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions in six Thanksgiving Day games. That doesn’t really move the needle one way or the other. I probably won’t play a whole lot of him this week, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t worth a look.
Running Backs: The Detroit running game is about as tasty as Thanksgiving stuffing, which would mean that it is absolutely not tasty at all. There’s a reason nobody eats that garbage 364 days out of the year. Don’t give me that garbage about how your mom or grandma makes it the best, either. It’s all garbage. Some might just be more garbage than others. Even if the trash doesn’t stink, it’s still trash. You get the picture. By the way, you probably don’t want to play any of these guys. There are three clear value running backs on the slate, leaving Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah merely as GPP-only dart throws. If you think the game will trend one way significantly, you can load up on Riddick (if you think Detroit will be trailing) or Abdullah (if you think Detroit will be leading), but this situation is a tough sell assuming the game stays close. The Vikings are allowing just 78 rushing yards per game this year, which is the second best mark in the entire league. That is not a mirage, either, as they are allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. There are better options.
Pass Catchers: We have a similar situation with the Lions as we do with the Vikings. Like Adam Thielen on the other side, Golden Tate will likely avoid Minnesota’s top corner in Xavier Rhodes. With Tate running a large majority of his routes out of the slot, where he will face off primarily with Terence Newman. I’ll opt for Tate in that one-on-one matchup. Marvin Jones will likely see a lot of Rhodes, and that takes him pretty much completely off my board here. Rhodes is just that good, and I prefer other options. You can make a case for the ever frustrating Eric Ebron if you want, but he’s not the ideal tight end play, even on a short slate. He simply isn’t consistent and doesn’t see enough looks.
The Takeaway: It’s largely Tate or bust with this team. I really like his individual matchup here, and I will have plenty of exposure. Marvin Jones is off my radar against top corner Xavier Rhodes, and the Detroit running game is a dumpster fire. You can make a case for Stafford as a relatively low-owned quarterback, but I won’t have a ton of rosters with him. Again, Tate is my priority play, and you can always consider the talented Minnesota defense. Detroit has the second lowest implied team total on the slate, and they have the lowest total among the home teams.
| Los Angeles Chargers | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.6 | 23 | 14 | 26 | Offense | 25.9 | 8 | 26 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.2 | 20 | 15 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 8 | 8 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 18 | 22 | 24 | 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 30 | 19 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Allen | 93 | 56 | 3 | 755 | Bryant | 97 | 50 | 4 | 541 | |
| Williams | 42 | 25 | 1 | 382 | Williams | 51 | 35 | 0 | 401 | |
| Benjamin | 38 | 20 | 3 | 325 | Beasley | 44 | 26 | 4 | 195 | |
| Henry | 39 | 26 | 2 | 344 | Witten | 56 | 43 | 3 | 385 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Travis Benjamin (LAC WR) – Questionable (Abdomen) / Mike Williams (LAC WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB) – Out (Suspended)
LAC Matchup Rating: 7.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 7.0
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback: The Chargers are coming off a ridiculous 54 point outburst last week, though a lot of that was attributable to the fact that the Bills decided to throw interception machine Nathan Peterman out there to the wolves for no real reason. Even though they had some help in that game, the fact remains that the Chargers are 4-2 over their last six games, and they are still in the playoff hunt in a watered-down AFC, where a 5-5 team would currently be a playoff squad. Philip Rivers was cleared from his concussion and played well for as long as he was needed in that game, and he draws a sneaky good matchup here against a Cowboys team that is falling off the rails and will still be missing Sean Lee at linebacker. On sites where Rivers is still relatively cheap, he’s a solid play on the three game slate.
Running Backs: With the Cowboys struggling and missing their best defensive player, the Chargers become a very solid team to target on this short slate. Melvin Gordon isn’t the most talented running back you will see, but he’s basically the only clear-cut top running back that plays on Thursday. Don’t be concerned about the lower snap count last week, as Gordon did not play a single snap over the last 20 minutes of the game with the Chargers ahead by so much. He had played on nearly 70% of the snaps before the game got out of hand, and that is in line with his usual workload. Dallas has allowed a whopping 347 rushing yards over the last two games, and Gordon should be in line for a heavy workload here. He’s one of the safest plays on the board at a position where he is the only available “spendy” option.
Pass Catchers: Keenan Allen has been slowed by some difficult matchups this year, but I have been preaching patience with him quite often in this article. If you stuck with it, Allen finally rewarded you with a huge game in last week’s blowout victory. He caught 12 of 13 targets, parlaying those into almost 160 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the process. That’s a pretty good day at the office, especially with much of it occurring in just one half of play. The Cowboys have nobody capable of covering Allen, and he should be able to continue that success in this game. However, he will also be very popular. Sometimes, the way to win a GPP on these short slates is to zig when everyone else zags. Tyrell Williams is locked into the #2 receiver role for this team and is always capable of a big play. While he has been very quiet of late, he’s one of my favorite contrarian options on the slate. It may not make intuitive sense on the surface, but those are the kind of 5% owned plays that win money on three game slates. If you buy into the fact that Mike Williams might eat into his snaps, then fire him up as a low-owned option. Basically, every Los Angeles pass catcher outside of Allen is at least worth a mention against a deteriorating defense. I’ll opt for some exposure to the Williams duo here. Also, watch the injury report here. Both Travis Benjamin and Mike Williams were limited on Tuesday. If one or both of them is out this week, upgrade the other options a little more. It would be nice to see Hunter Henry wake up, but it’s hard to bank on that right now.
The Takeaway: The Chargers are definitely a team that I will target heavily on this slate. The Cowboys are reeling and will still be without Sean Lee this week. The Dallas defense has been giving up yards in bunches, putting both the passing game and running game into play. Melvin Gordon is the only high dollar running back option on the entire slate, and he’s a very safe play in this matchup. Philip Rivers is a solid QB option, with Keenan Allen being the most logical receiving option. The other receivers are viable GPP options if you want to pivot off the chalkier pick in Allen.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: I’m not going to get on the soapbox of Dak Prescott vs. Carson Wentz in this article, but the Eagles sure made an emphatic statement on Sunday night. While that topic can be hotly debated, it is very clear that the loss of Ezekiel Elliott is going to hurt the outlook for Prescott. Defenses can key in on the quarterback a little more with much less threat of a viable running game. The loss of Tyron Smith on the offensive line has also been a major issue. There are too many red flags for me right now. He remains the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel, and he is the second most expensive option on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Meh.
Running Backs: Alfred Morris is supposed to be the lead back with Ezekiel Elliott out, but we have yet to see him establish a workhorse role. He has played on less than 40% of the snaps in each of the last two games, but much of that has been because Dallas has been playing from behind. It wasn’t really Morris’ fault last week, as he was very respectable while he was in there with 17 carries for 91 yards. Morris can be thrown into the mix of value running backs on this slate, especially since the Chargers rank just 27th in the league in DVOA against the run. The uncertain snap count makes him a little more risky than some of the other plays, but if Dallas can get a lead in this game, Morris is a sneaky good option. He also won’t be as highly owned as guys like Perine, which adds to the GPP appeal as well.
Pass Catchers: The passing game is in some trouble, as I discussed above with Prescott. Dez Bryant just isn’t the same receiver anymore, and he does not have a single 100 yard receiving game all season. He has caught just 50 of the 98 targets that have been hurled his way, which is not a good ratio. At this point, Bryant is nothing more than a high risk GPP option, and I’m not even sure the massive ceiling is there in 2017. The Chargers have struggled against tight ends a little bit this year, which means we could see a solid Thanksgiving turn back the clock outing from Jason Witten. Cole Beasley isn’t overly expensive and is a reasonable value option on a short slate, as well.
The Takeaway: You would not have expected this game to basically be a pick-‘em in Vegas about a month ago, but here we are. Dallas is reeling, while Los Angeles is surging. I’m not really interested in Dak Prescott at this point, as the loss of some key offensive weapons has really hurt his production. Alfred Morris is a sneaky value at running back assuming Dallas doesn’t fall way behind in this game, as he really did run well last Sunday. In the passing game, it’s simply difficult to trust Dez Bryant at this point. Cole Beasley has some appeal in full PPR formats, while Jason Witten has a decent matchup as well. They are fine value selections if you need it, but there’s plenty of value out there. Consider them secondary options at their respective positions.
| New York Giants | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 45 | 19 | -7 | 45 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.7 | 28 | 19 | 25 | Offense | 23.0 | 12 | 4 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.6 | 31 | 27 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 21 | 29 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 28 | 25 | 10 | 29 | New York Giants | 30 | 19 | 21 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Shepard | 51 | 38 | 1 | 475 | Crowder | 62 | 39 | 0 | 420 | |
| Lewis | 30 | 17 | 2 | 221 | Doctson | 36 | 19 | 3 | 300 | |
| King | 21 | 10 | 1 | 111 | Grant | 39 | 30 | 3 | 338 | |
| Engram | 78 | 41 | 5 | 452 | Reed | 35 | 27 | 2 | 211 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Reed (WAS TE) – Out (Hamstring) / Ryan Grant (WAS WR) – Questionable (Calf) / Samaje Perine (WAS RB) – Questionable (Finger)
NYG Matchup Rating: 4.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 7.5
New York Giants
Quarterback: New York owns the lowest implied team total on this slate, and let’s not forget that they are a mess offensively despite winning last week. That win was very much aided by heavy winds, and they did only scored twelve points in an overtime game. The volume might be there for Eli Manning, but that’s about where the positives end. He lacks weapons in the pass catching department, especially if Sterling Shepard is forced to miss another contest. With Shepard trending toward a doubtful tag, it’s really difficult to trust Manning in any format. Sure, he’s cheap, but we don’t necessarily need the value on this slate. I’ll pass.
Running Backs: It is clear that the Giants want to feature Orleans Darwka on offense, and that is exactly what they did last week against the Chiefs. Even though they didn’t score a touchdown, they still won the game, which means we will likely see a similar game plan this week. The problem is that they might fall behind in this game, which adds risk to Darkwa. It’s part of the reason why I prefer the running back on the other side of this game, but Darkwa is still a very solid option. He remains affordable for DFS purposes, and he has logged at least 10 full PPR points in three straight games. The Redskins are allowing 4.3 yards per carry this year, and this is a reasonable matchup for Darkwa. As long as this game stays close, he should be just fine. Keep a slight eye on his injury status, as he was limited in practice on Tuesday with a hamstring issue. As of now, it doesn’t seem like there is any major reason to be concerned.
Pass Catchers: I am writing this assuming that Shepard will not play, as his migraine issues sound pretty major at this point. As a person who has suffered from migraines in the past, I can vouch for how much of an issue they can cause in daily life, let alone in football life. That leaves Eli Manning with a dearth of wide receiver options, none of whom I even remotely want to consider. The passing game will likely revolve around Evan Engram. While he was quiet last week as the Chiefs sold out to stop him in the windy conditions, he should fare better against the Redskins. They rank 24th in the league in DVOA against the tight end position, and Engram is your top overall tight end on this three game slate.
The Takeaway: There are only two viable targets on the Giants this week: Orleans Darkwa and Evan Engram. Nobody else is even slightly interesting for me, and the Redskins will be a very popular defensive selection.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Fire up your Redskins. Again, even though the Giants won and held the Chiefs to nine points a week ago, much of that was due to the windy conditions in new York. That is not going to be enough to deter me away from a Washington squad that carries the highest implied team total on this three game slate. The Giants rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most defensive metrics, making Kirk Cousins a top play in any format. The Redskins have a ton of injuries in the backfield, so Cousins might be relied upon even more moving forward. He has already thrown for 320+ yards in back-to-back games, and the Giants don’t have the horses to slow him down. Cousins is the top overall quarterback on the slate in all formats.
Running Backs: Speaking of the top option in all formats, you can make a case for Samaje Perine as the best point per dollar option at running back. He will be very popular, as his price remains depressed on pretty much every site. Even though he is more expensive on the Thursday only slates than he was on the Monday/Thursday slates, he is still affordable for the new role that he will have. If summarizing his value by site, he is dirt cheap on FantasyDraft, reasonably cheap on DraftKings, and not that much of a bargain on FanDuel. I will still play him on all three sites, as the opportunity and matchup are simply too good to ignore. With both Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson sidelined, Perine should have a nearly every down role. He is coming off a fine performance against the Saints, and the game flow sets up favorably for him. As such, Perine is an option on all sites and in all contest formats.
Pass Catchers: Jamison Crowder had a quiet start last week, but he woke up in the second half and finished with a respectable seven catches for 72 yards. He has a fine matchup out of the slot here. Josh Doctson will likely see a healthy dose of top corner Janoris Jenkins, and he is off my radar in this one. I prefer Crowder by a wide margin. Ryan Grant is also on the radar as an interesting GPP play, as he will largely get ignored and has been playing a healthy dose of snaps. Keep an eye on his injury status, as he has been limited so far this week, but he did go for 59 yards and a score against the Saints. If Grant is healthy, give him a look as a low owned option. We also need to keep an eye on the injury status of Jordan Reed. If he is out again, you can continue to utilize Vernon Davis as a mid-range option at tight end. He’s a logical pivot if you can’t quite afford Evan Engram.
WEDNESDAY UPDATE – Reed is officially out, so upgrade Davis as appropriate.
The Takeaway: Washington is a team that can be targeted with confidence at all positions. Cousins, Perine, and Crowder can be considered as top options at their respective positions, while Vernon Davis is a top tight end play if Jordan Reed remains sidelined. Don’t be afraid to target multiple Redskins on your lineups on a three game slate.