NFL Grind Down: Week 13 - Page Two
| San Francisco 49ers | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 40 | 18.25 | -3.5 | 40 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | Offense | 16.1 | 29 | 31 | 8 | |||||
| Opp. Defense | 22.9 | 15 | 12 | 16 | Opp. Defense | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 9 | 16 | 20 | 13 | San Francisco 49ers | 32 | 32 | 19 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Goodwin | 62 | 27 | 1 | 578 | Inman | 26 | 15 | 0 | 204 | |
| Robinson | 39 | 14 | 1 | 206 | Wright | 51 | 31 | 1 | 345 | |
| Taylor | 40 | 26 | 1 | 239 | McBride | 15 | 8 | 0 | 144 | |
| Kittle | 44 | 28 | 1 | 291 | Sims | 19 | 10 | 1 | 110 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
SF Matchup Rating: 4.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: This game might only have been watched by about 10 people, but that might skyrocket to about 25 with Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start as a member of the 49ers. While Jimmy G is the shiny new toy for us to consider for fantasy purposes, and the momentum is building after his last second touchdown pass last week, but let’s pump the brakes a little bit. This is a tough road matchup against a Bears defense that is not as bad as they showed last week against the Eagles, and Garoppolo doesn’t exactly have a lot of weapons to throw the ball to. I would be more interested if this was a cupcake matchup. I’ll take a wait and see approach to evaluate him this week, and that will help determine how viable he is going to be down the stretch, if he can keep the starting job.
Running Backs: The rushing numbers really haven’t been exciting for Carlos Hyde lately, but his value has been boosted by his involvement in the passing game. I am interested to see how he performs with a new quarterback at the helm, and I don’t think Garoppolo will be as eager to dump the ball off to Hyde. That is enough of a concern to keep me cautious in Week 13. If I target a running back from this team in the hopes of it being a “get right” spot, I prefer the guy on the other side.
Pass Catchers: Well, this group isn’t exactly exciting. Marquise Goodwin was the only pass catcher to clear 35 receiving yards last week against the Seahawks, and he is the clear top receiver for this team with Pierre Garcon on the shelf. The problem is that Goodwin isn’t built as a safe “target monster” type of receiver. He’s more of a big play threat. This just goes to show how much trouble the 49ers are in with their pass catchers right now. If you want a boom/bust GPP combination, you could do worse than Garoppolo and Goodwin, but there is a very low floor in play here. George Kittle saw just two targets last week and played on just a third of the offensive snaps, so he can’t be trusted again just yet.
The Takeaway: San Francisco carries one of the lowest team totals of the week at just 18 points, and there isn’t a lot of reason to get excited about anyone from this team, though it will be interesting to see how Jimmy Garoppolo does in his first start for a new team. Given the lack of weapons at his disposal, I don’t expect miracles. The Bears are a strong defensive selection, but you could consider a risk/reward Garoppolo/Goodwin pairing in GPP formats.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: If a 53% completion mark, 162 passing yards per game, and four total touchdowns in seven starts is your ideal fantasy option, then by all means roster Mitchell Trubisky this week. If you are a normal person, you probably aren’t even reading this section, so let’s move along.
Running Backs: The formula is becoming clear by now. Play Jordan Howard in the games where the Bears are ahead or competitive. Avoid Jordan Howard in the games where the Bears are going to get waxed (like last week against the Eagles). This is a clear Howard green light game, with the Bears checking in as home favorites against a weak team. San Francisco is allowing 130 rushing yards per game this year, and they have allowed ten touchdowns on the ground. That yardage figure is the third worst in the league, making this a mouthwatering spot for Howard if the Bears can get out to a lead. I’ll buy him in GPP formats this week. There’s still a bit of risk in cash games given the uncertain game flow and the fact that Howard isn’t heavily involved in the passing games. He should dominate early down work, though, as the other running backs have been a bit of a disaster lately.
Pass Catchers: Dontrelle Inman continues to be the only truly viable pass catching option on this Chicago team. He saw nine targets against the Eagles last week, though a lot of that was due to the Bears falling way behind. That likely won’t be the case in this game, and this could be a game where we see them only attempt 20 or so passes if possible. I can’t endorse any receivers here. The ceiling is low, the floor is low, and the risk is too high.
The Takeaway: Play Jordan Howard, especially if you think the Bears can get a lead in this game. San Francisco is not a strong defensive squad, but it’s almost impossible to get on board with the weak passing game with this team.
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.3 | 23 | 5 | 28 | Offense | 21.1 | 19 | 19 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 18 | 28 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 23.8 | 20 | 32 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 17 | 26 | 30 | 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 | 20 | 32 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 96 | 51 | 4 | 702 | Nelson | 64 | 38 | 6 | 393 | |
| Jackson | 79 | 43 | 3 | 592 | Adams | 91 | 55 | 7 | 702 | |
| Humphries | 57 | 39 | 0 | 377 | Cobb | 57 | 43 | 2 | 463 | |
| Howard | 30 | 20 | 4 | 331 | Kendricks | 18 | 10 | 1 | 140 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Doug Martin (TB RB) – Out (Concussion) / DeSean Jackson (TB WR) – Questionable (Foot) / Aaron Jones (GB RB) – Questionable (Knee)
TB Matchup Rating: 6.0
GB Matchup Rating: 5.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: It sounds as though Jameis Winston is likely going to be cleared to play this week, and that is welcome news for a scuffling Tampa Bay passing attack. While it’s tough to trust him coming off an ever dangerous shoulder injury, there are reasons to be intrigued. The Packers do not have a strong pass defense, and Winston also comes in with a relatively cheap DFS price tag. The ownership will likely be low as well, which is an added benefit in tournaments. I wish he was playing at home this week, and I have no idea if he is at full strength, and those factors keep Winston out of the cash game pool. However, that will only serve to make sure the ownership stays in check. Assuming he gets cleared, this is a relatively sneaky spot.
Running Backs: Doug Martin suffered a concussion last week, and as of now I would not expect him to play in Week 13. Assuming that is the case, Jacquizz Rodgers will once again become the featured running back. However, Peyton Barber snagged the goal line looks a week ago, and Rodgers is not a slam dunk to be in there on passing downs, either. Those factors knock Rodgers down a few pegs, but he could still be looking at 18 or so touches against a mediocre defense. Rodgers is in the value play discussion, but he is not a primary option on my board.
Pass Catchers: Daily fantasy players are giving up on Mike Evans, and there is sound reasoning behind it. He hasn’t scored in a month. He hasn’t topped 100 receiving yards all year. Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled. Everything says to steer clear, but Evans’ talent is going to take over one of these weeks. The Packers allowed a massive game to Antonio Brown and the Steelers’ pass catchers last week, and Evans could be in line for his best game of the season. With Jameis Winston likely returning, the upside is even greater. He’s definitely not a cash game play, but I love a low-owned and relatively affordable Evans in GPP formats this week. DeSean Jackson seems to be a little banged up, which only serves to add to Evans’ potential. O.J. Howard seems to be taking over as the top tight end on this team, as his snap count continues to remain higher than that of Cameron Brate. I don’t mind Howard as a play this week, but he takes a back seat to Evans in my order of preference.
The Takeaway: My belief is that the passing game can get it going this week. Jameis Winston is likely going to return, which helps tremendously. He’s a risk/reward QB option in a return from a shoulder injury. Mike Evans hasn’t scored in forever and hasn’t cleared 100 receiving yards in a game all season, but this could be the spot. I like the Winston/Evans pairing in GPP formats. O.J. Howard is also in play as the new #1 tight end on this team. It’s tough to trust the running game, though Jacquizz Rodgers is in the value discussion if Doug Martin isn’t cleared to play. I just don’t love the fact that Martin will lose work in the red zone and on passing downs. I will stick with Winston and company.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: In what is probably the epitome of a small sample size alert, Brett Hundley has been woeful in his home starts in a Packers uniform. He has looked much better on the road, and he is coming off his best start in the NFL — a three touchdown performance on Sunday night against the Steelers. I need to see more than a one week sample to get excited, but the matchup is solid against a weak Buccaneers defense. I’m not going to buy in after just one good game, so I will continue to sit this one out. Don’t chase the points after one good game, as there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned about Hundley from a fantasy perspective.
Running Backs: Jamaal Williams put up solid numbers last week as well, but don’t be fooled. His 54 yard receiving touchdown was entirely because of defensive miscommunication, and he stumbled into the end zone once on the ground. However, he averaged only 3.1 yards per carry in the game, and he is not going to create his own running lanes. This is not the next coming of Alvin Kamara. Tampa Bay is stronger at defending the run than the pass, which isn’t saying much, but it’s just hard to get excited about Williams. When you throw in the fact that his ownership will likely be higher after the good results on Sunday night, the fade becomes even more intriguing. I don’t expect Aaron Jones or Ty Montgomery to suit up this week based on current news reports, so the volume should be there if you are looking for a silver lining.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Jones is now expected to return this week, which renders Williams largely useless in DFS. The only appeal would have been the volume, and that might now be gone.
Pass Catchers: Even though Brett Hundley played well last week, Jordy Nelson continued to slide into obscurity with just three catches for 11 yards. He hasn’t cleared 35 receiving yards in any of Hundley’s starts. Woof. Davante Adams and Randall Cobb caught touchdowns in the game, but that isn’t necessarily a sign of anything with Hundley at quarterback. Hundley has not thrown a touchdown pass in three home starts. In fact, he has a 5/3 TD/INT ratio on the road and a 0/4 TD/INT ratio at home. I can’t endorse anyone from this group.
The Takeaway: Even in a favorable matchup, it’s hard to trust the Packers in this game. Hundley simply doesn’t have a quality arm, and his upside rests in his ability to run. The volume should be there once again for Jamaal Williams, and even though he is not the most talented running back, you can absolutely make a decent case for him in a friendly matchup.
| Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 41 | 15.75 | -9.5 | 41 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.7 | 27 | 21 | 24 | Offense | 24.5 | 9 | 29 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 15.3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 27.3 | 32 | 30 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 17 | 1 | 19 | Indianapolis Colts | 20 | 27 | 25 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 74 | 38 | 3 | 740 | Lee | 80 | 44 | 2 | 551 | |
| Moncrief | 39 | 21 | 2 | 354 | Hurns | 51 | 36 | 2 | 446 | |
| Rogers | 16 | 14 | 1 | 185 | Westbrook | 16 | 9 | 0 | 76 | |
| Doyle | 77 | 59 | 2 | 544 | Lewis | 35 | 15 | 5 | 219 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Ankle)
IND Matchup Rating: 2.0
JAX Matchup Rating: 6.0
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Don’t play Jacoby Brissett against the best secondary in the NFL.
Running Backs: Outside of the Browns, the Colts have the lowest implied team total of the week at just 15 points. There’s really no reason to go here on a full week slate of games. Even though the ageless Frank Gore found the end zone last week and Jacksonville is more vulnerable to the run than the pass, there’s not much case to be made here. Indianapolis will likely be playing from behind, as well. Pass.
Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton has the talent to perform in any matchup, but the deck is stacked against him with an inconsistent quarterback and a bad matchup. He has been held to 30 yards or less in six of the last eight games. Yes, the other two were massive performances, but the risk outweighs the reward against the Jaguars. Jack Doyle continues to soak up a ton of targets and might be worth a look if you need a mid-range tight end play. Outside of Doyle, this whole group doesn’t inspire much confidence.
The Takeaway: This team can safely be avoided in Week 13. Jack Doyle would be the play if you choose anyone, but this is a very difficult matchup. As usual, Jacksonville’s defense is a fine selection this week. They shut the Colts out in the first meeting between these teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles grabbed his first two rushing touchdowns of the year to salvage a decent fantasy performance last week. Don’t expect that to happen again. He still has just one game all year with multiple passing touchdowns. There are plenty of better quarterback options. Even though the matchup here is a good one, Jacksonville will likely lean on the running game a lot, especially if they are able to get out to a lead. Next!
*Running Backs:*Jacksonville is installed as ten point favorites in this game, which means we will likely see a heavy workload for Leonard Fournette. Fournette is practicing in full this week for the first time in a while, which suggests he is as close to 100% health as we have seen since the early part of the season. He wasn’t very effective last week against the Cardinals, but this is a prime bounce-back spot against a Colts team that has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and 4.0 yards per carry on the year. This profiles as a game where the Jaguars will lean on Fournette a lot, and 30 carries isn’t out of the question. With a good matchup and likely positive game flow, I’m ready to hop back on the Fournette bandwagon.
Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns is still not practicing, and I would not expect him to return for this week’s game. Marqise Lee struggled in Patrick Peterson coverage last week, but this is a more favorable matchup. The most intriguing option here is the talented Dede Westbrook, and this just might be the time to pounce. Westbrook hasn’t put up huge numbers yet, but his snaps are on the rise, and he saw double figure targets in last week’s game. He made the infamous call that he would put up 200 yards in his debut a few weeks ago, so it’s not like he is lacking for confidence. The opportunity should definitely be there, and Westbrook is one of the better value plays on this week’s slate. He matches up well with the Indianapolis secondary, and I think this is the breakout game. He does get a downgrade if Hurns happens to play, so keep an eye on the situation.
The Takeaway: Two Jacksonville players have my attention this week: Leonard Fournette and Dede Westbrook. Fournette should benefit from the likely positive game flow, and he appears healthy after practicing in full to start the week. Dede Westbrook could also be primed for a breakout game, with his snaps and targets on the rise. He’s a top value play if Allen Hurns is sidelined again.
| Denver Broncos | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 38 | 19.5 | 1 | 38 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.9 | 26 | 20 | 16 | Offense | 15.8 | 30 | 23 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 30 | 15 | 25 | Opp. Defense | 25.5 | 27 | 3 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 21 | 25 | 16 | 29 | Denver Broncos | 14 | 14 | 4 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 96 | 58 | 3 | 651 | Landry | 117 | 75 | 6 | 637 | |
| Sanders | 72 | 37 | 2 | 460 | Parker | 57 | 35 | 1 | 409 | |
| Latimer | 21 | 13 | 1 | 185 | Stills | 69 | 43 | 5 | 635 | |
| Green | 19 | 12 | 1 | 149 | Thomas | 51 | 34 | 2 | 342 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Paxton Lynch (DEN QB) – Out (Ankle) / Damien Williams (MIA RB) – Out (Shoulder)
DEN Matchup Rating: 5.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: In my opinion, this is one of the biggest “wild card” games of the week. I could see this being a 10-6 slug fest, or I could see it being a 34-28 shootout. Neither team has a great offense, but the Broncos draw a fine matchup against a weak Miami defense. The Dolphins have lost five in a row and have given up at least 27 points in all of those games. In short, they aren’t good. The question is, can Trevor Siemian perform against them, since he isn’t exactly good, either? Paxton Lynch was awful last week before getting hurt, and Siemian actually performed very well after entering the game against the Raiders. This is a similarly good matchup. If you have a lot of stones and love the risk/reward DFS approach, give Siemian a look in tournaments. Just know that it isn’t a pick for the faint of heart. The floor is very low.
Running Backs: The production hasn’t really been there with the Broncos falling way behind on a weekly basis, but Devontae Booker continues to log the most snaps in this backfield every week. That is not a ringing endorsement, though, as there are still three guys in the mix. The matchup is fine against a Dolphins team that is surrendering a healthy 4.3 yards per carry, but I don’t think I can trust anyone from this group. If I had to pick a player, it would be Booker, but I think I’ll pass on the whole unit.
Pass Catchers: Emmanuel Sanders still seems to be operating at less than 100%, which at least helps to make the decision easier if you are trying to decide between the starting wide receivers for the Broncos. Demaryius Thomas should step up as the top dog in this battle, and I love him as a sneaky pairing with Siemian in GPPs against a weak Miami defense. Thomas has seen at least eight targets in five straight games, and I wouldn’t expect that to slow down this week. He is one of my favorite mid-range WR options on the entire slate. I think he logs 100 yards and finds the end zone in this game.
The Takeaway: The Denver backfield is still hard to trust, so I will likely avoid them again. The passing game has some intrigue against a very weak defense, putting the Trevor Siemian and Demaryius Thomas combination platter into play for GPP formats, though the risk is very real with those two.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Jay Cutler is going to start this week, as he has been cleared to resume playing. He has not been cleared to resume joining any of my DFS rosters. In an average matchup, there’s no reason to even consider him. If I decide to get frisky with a quarterback selection from this game, it will definitely be with Siemian on the other side.
Running Backs: It sounds like Damien Williams is going to be sidelined this week with a shoulder injury, which should open up plenty of snaps for Kenyan Drake. While Drake is not a sexy fantasy option, the opportunity might just be too good to pass up. He comes at an affordable price tag, he has shown some solid ability over the past month, and Denver’s rush defense has started to show a few cracks. At first glance, this week doesn’t seem to offer a ton of value at the running back position, which adds even more value to Drake. It’s not sexy, but Drake is firmly in the mix as one of the top value plays in Week 13 — assuming Williams is eventually ruled out.
Pass Catchers: DeVante Parker gets the biggest boost from Cutler’s return, as he is clearly the receiver that Cutler loves to throw to when it matters most. However, I’m not sure I want to trust him against Denver’s outside corners. Jarvis Landry should continue to see a ton of targets and is a reasonable PPR option, but I don’t know how excited I can get about that. He does have some appeal at $5,900 on DraftKings. Denver has struggled against tight ends for much of the year, but they have been better over the last few weeks. There’s no real reason to get cute with Julius Thomas here, though he has picked it up a bit of late.
The Takeaway: Meh. I prefer the Denver side of this game. You can certainly give Jarvis Landry a look in PPR formats like DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and his $5,900 price tag on DraftKings is very appealing. Kenyan Drake is one of the better value plays of the week, especially if we get news that Damien Williams is out for sure. Outside of those two players, I have no interest in the Miami skill players. They have a low 18 point implied team total in this game.
