NFL Grind Down: Week 13
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Washington Redskins | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44 | 21.5 | -1 | 44 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.5 | 12 | 2 | 18 | Offense | 22.5 | 15 | 28 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.5 | 24 | 26 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 25 | 21 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25 | 21 | 28 | 21 | Washington Redskins | 19 | 23 | 7 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Crowder | 72 | 46 | 1 | 561 | Bryant | 102 | 53 | 4 | 578 | |
| Doctson | 40 | 21 | 4 | 328 | Williams | 56 | 39 | 0 | 455 | |
| Grant | 41 | 31 | 3 | 341 | Beasley | 47 | 28 | 4 | 214 | |
| Davis | 49 | 33 | 1 | 527 | Witten | 63 | 50 | 3 | 429 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Reed (WAS TE) – Out (Hamstring)
WAS Matchup Rating: 6.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins has started to play a little better over the last few weeks, amassing 566 passing yards and five touchdowns over the last two weeks. He’s a strong play if you still need a quarterback to round out your Monday/Thursday two game slate lineups, but I am hesitant to recommend him on the full week slates. The Vegas line really smells fishy to me in this game, as it really surprises me that the Redskins check in as underdogs. Yes, I know they are on the road, but Dallas has been playing like one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last three games. Cousins carries plenty of upside, but his DFS price tag is also a little higher than I would really like to pay. As such, I will probably avoid him on the full week slates.
Running Backs: Samaje Perine filled in for the banged-up Redskins very nicely on Thanksgiving, rushing for 100 yards on a healthy 24 carries. He even caught three passes out of the backfield. He played on over 70% of the snaps, and Byron Marshall does not appear to be a major threat at this point. That may change if the Redskins get behind here, but it’s tough to endorse Marshall yet. If you are looking to play anyone from this backfield, Perine is the choice. The Redskins’ offensive line is much healthier than it was a few weeks ago, and Dallas is allowing 113 rushing yards per game this season. Perine isn’t going to put up 100+ yards and a touchdown every week, and he might be over-valued a bit right now, but there’s nothing wrong with playing him in Week 13.
Pass Catchers: It took a while, but Jamison Crowder finally broke out with a huge game on Thanksgiving and is locked in as a solid mid-range receiving option. Terrelle Pryor was a massive bust early in the year and then got hurt, which paved the way for Crowder to plow himself into the conversation as the top wide receiver on this team. In addition, Josh Doctson played on every single snap against the Giants and caught a late touchdown. He is also in play here, as Crowder and Doctson have clearly established themselves as the top two receivers on this team. The Dallas defense is reeling, and Keenan Allen ran circles around them last week. I will have plenty of exposure to both Crowder and Doctson. Assuming Jordan Reed misses another game, which seems likely with Reed still not practicing, Vernon Davis is a solid option. He burned a ton of folks with a goose-egg in a favorable matchup on Thanksgiving, so DFS players will be hesitant to go back to the well. Dallas has allowed touchdowns to tight ends in three of their last four games, putting Davis squarely on the mid-range tight end radar.
The Takeaway: I want to really like the Redskins in this game, but that Vegas line just seems off. Naturally, the smart people in Vegas know more than most of us, so we have to trust them to some degree. Then again, it could just be the natural public love for the Cowboys at play. If you are wrapping up the Monday/Thursday slate, you could consider Cousins, Perine, and the pass catchers as viable options. Crowder, Doctson, and Davis are in play for me on full Week 13 slates as well.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Again, it surprises me that Dallas is favored in this game. This offense has looked nothing short of lost over the last three weeks, scoring seven, nine, and six points in the games since Ezekiel Elliott has been suspended. Dak Prescott simply can’t be trusted at this point. Even though Washington doesn’t provide the most challenging matchup in the league, they do have solid boundary corners, and it would surprise me if this was the breakout spot for a scuffling quarterback. I’ll pass.
Running Backs: The Dallas backfield remains a mess. Alfred Morris has played on less than 40% of the snaps in every game since Ezekiel Elliott got suspended, but Dallas has obviously been playing from behind a lot. Morris and Rod Smith are both GPP-only, risk/reward options. Dallas did rush for 169 yards as a team in the first meeting between these teams, but this is not the same Dallas team. I would likely only consider these guys on Monday/Thursday lineups where you are in desperate need of a running back option.
Pass Catchers: Has Dez Bryant been the biggest fantasy disappointment of 2017? He seems to lack burst, and he has barely caught 50% of the targets that have come his way. He will also have to deal with Washington’s solid corners in this game. I can’t endorse him despite the career track record of success. This isn’t the same player right now. If you are starving for a
value play on your Monday/Thursday lineups, Cole Beasley might be a decent value target in this game, as he could see plenty of targets in more favorable individual matchups. Washington has struggled against tight ends at times this year, which puts Jason Witten on the low-end tight end radar this week.
The Takeaway: All in all, there isn’t a lot to get excited about with a team that hasn’t cleared ten points in a game since Ezekiel Elliott got suspended. The fact that Dallas is favored surprises me, but I am not going to fall for the trap. Outside of the Monday/Thursday slate, I will probably steer clear of this whole team.
| Minnesota Vikings | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.6 | 8 | 13 | 6 | Offense | 24.1 | 11 | 11 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.9 | 13 | 8 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 17.7 | 5 | 14 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 16 | 15 | 8 | 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 1 | 17 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 60 | 40 | 5 | 598 | Jones | 101 | 66 | 3 | 1,039 | |
| Thielen | 107 | 70 | 3 | 1,006 | Sanu | 61 | 45 | 4 | 452 | |
| Treadwell | 25 | 14 | 0 | 152 | Gabriel | 41 | 28 | 1 | 326 | |
| Rudolph | 65 | 46 | 5 | 429 | Hooper | 48 | 36 | 3 | 417 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.5
ATL Matchup Rating: 6.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: It’s ridiculous that this conversation continues as to whether or not Case Keenum is the starting quarterback for the Vikings. The fact of the matter is that he has earned the job and has done absolutely nothing to warrant losing it (or even potentially losing it). Keenum continues to defy expectations on a weekly basis, and it will be interesting to see how he performs in a difficult road test against the Falcons. Atlanta’s pass defense has been respectable, though not great, this year, and Keenum will likely come down from this high at some point. This is a logical spot for that to happen with Minnesota playing on the road after a big win over Detroit on Thanksgiving. Keenum is certainly viable in GPP formats with the way he has been playing, but I will likely steer clear.
Running Backs: Although their overall numbers don’t look quite that awful, the Falcons actually have the worst rush defense DVOA in the entire league. That was a bit of a shock to me when I saw it, and it does show that the Falcons are vulnerable on the ground. The problem is that we have two mouths to feed in the Minnesota backfield right now, as both Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have been playing well. They have been splitting snaps very evenly over the last few weeks. I do think this matchup sets up better for McKinnon, especially if the Vikings happen to fall behind. The Falcons have struggled against pass catching running backs over the past few years. McKinnon is on the GPP map here, as is Murray, but the carry split combined with Minnesota carrying a low team total makes this a difficult spot to attack despite Atlanta’s struggles against the run.
Pass Catchers: Adam Thielen is just plain good. He hasn’t missed a beat no matter who has been under center for the Vikings this year, and he has become one of the safest PPR options at wide receiver on a weekly basis. He’s not a priority play for me at his current elevated price point, but I am not going to argue with anyone who insists on playing him, especially on DraftKings or FantasyDraft. Stefon Diggs has had a little trouble getting the engine revved up after returning from injury, but the GPP upside is very tangible. He’s an interesting play that is sure to be low owned this week. I called the breakout performance for Kyle Rudolph last week, but I will take my W there and go home. I’m not going back to the well this week.
The Takeaway: Minnesota’s offense has been firing on all cylinders of late, but this is a difficult spot against an Atlanta team that is playing better defense and has won three in a row. That said, it’s hard to completely dismiss Case Keenum and Adam Thielen these days, and the running game could do some damage here. Minnesota has a lot of secondary plays in this one, but nobody checks in as a slam dunk play.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan had a solid all around performance last week against the Buccaneers, but he only threw for one touchdown. It’s easy to assume that he did better than that when you see the line from Julio Jones, but one of those scores was on a trick play pass from Mohamed Sanu. Ryan continues to lack the upside that we saw on a weekly basis last year, making him a reasonable fade choice here. Minnesota is allowing just 215 passing yards per game on the year, and they rank eighth in DVOA against the pass. I will be avoiding Ryan this week.
Running Backs: It got overshadowed by the big game from Julio Jones, but Tevin Coleman did rack up 97 rushing yards and a pair of scores in last week’s win over Tampa Bay. He is certainly a capable fill-in for Devonta Freeman, but Freeman is practicing in full and seems likely to be cleared for this week’s game. Freeman is significantly cheaper than Coleman on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft this week, making him a really intriguing GPP option if he logs his normal workload. The two backs are the same price on FanDuel, but they are both relatively affordable. I will likely avoid Coleman (assuming Freeman is back), but Freeman is in play for tournaments.
Pass Catchers: The Julio Jones game finally happened! Rejoice! He was still very chalky last week despite his 2017 struggles, but the matchup is much more challenging this week. You know Xavier Rhodes is seething after being bested by Marvin Jones on Thanksgiving, and that was one of the worst all around performances I have seen from Rhodes in quite some time. I still respect his ability, though, and that’s enough to make me steer clear of Jones in this spot. The big game from last week will have his ownership sitting much higher than it otherwise would have been in this matchup. The other receivers aren’t all that appealing from a DFS perspective, either. There’s not much to love here.
The Takeaway: I will be avoiding the entire Atlanta passing game this week, but you could give the running game a look. With Devonta Freeman likely returning from a concussion and practicing in full, he is really interesting at his now discounted price point. Freeman is on the GPP radar for sure, though he has underwhelmed for the year as a whole.
| Detroit Lions | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.7 | 5 | 8 | 30 | Offense | 21.5 | 18 | 32 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 21 | 24 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 12 | 2 | 17 | Detroit Lions | 15 | 28 | 15 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 83 | 63 | 3 | 698 | Maclin | 52 | 32 | 3 | 350 | |
| Jones | 80 | 44 | 8 | 731 | Wallace | 50 | 29 | 3 | 371 | |
| Golladay | 25 | 13 | 2 | 279 | Moore | 23 | 9 | 1 | 133 | |
| Ebron | 50 | 28 | 2 | 317 | Watson | 53 | 42 | 2 | 323 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ameer Abdullah (DET RB) – Questionable (Neck) / Alex Collins (BAL RB) – Questionable (Calf)
DET Matchup Rating: 4.0
BAL Matchup Rating: 4.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: This is one of the least exciting games of the week. The Lions travel on the road to face a very tough Baltimore defense, and Matthew Stafford is battling an ankle injury that he has been struggling with for a while, but he aggravated it on Thanksgiving. Even though he has put up very solid numbers of late, Stafford is not on my list of viable quarterbacks in Week 13.
Running Backs: The Detroit backfield is one of the easiest fade spots of the week. Their running game has been non-existent all year long, and the Ravens have made great strides in their rush defense since Brandon Williams came back from injury. They have not allowed more than 75 total rushing yards in any game over the last month. Steer clear of this mess. I will say that if Ameer Abdullah happens to be out, you might see a few more snaps for Theo Riddick, which would put him in the discussion on full PPR sites.
Pass Catchers: While this game profiles as an ugly one, I do think there is some merit to considering Golden Tate this week. The Ravens will likely lock their better corners on outside receiver Marvin Jones for much of the game, as Jones is coming off a career performance on Thanskgiving. Tate should find life a little easier in the slot, as the Ravens often struggle over the middle more often. If I am targeting any Detroit wide receiver in this game, I would bank on a bounce-back performance from Tate after he was a massive disappointment against Minnesota.
The Takeaway: I have no interest in the Lions outside of Golden Tate, who I do like as a play in tournament formats. The Baltimore defense is also a strong option, as this game has a low total, and Detroit carries a team total of just 20 points.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The Ravens may make the playoffs, but it won’t be because of Joe Flacco. He continues to post woeful numbers on a weekly basis. You know the drill by now. Avoid.
Running Backs: In last week’s win over the Texans, the snap count distribution for the Baltimore running backs was as follows: Alex Collins 31, Danny Woodhead 22, and Javorius Allen 15. Woodhead is predictably eating into Allen’s passing down role, and it’s difficult to endorse any of these guys on a weekly basis. Collins will get the work if the Ravens enter clock killing mode, while Woodhead will post solid fantasy weeks in games where the Ravens fall behind. That might make Woodhead an interesting option next week with Baltimore traveling to Pittsburgh, but for now, this group is best left alone.
Pass Catchers: Joe Flacco is throwing these guys the ball. No matter how much we want to like someone, the floor is zero. Jeremy Maclin caught one pass for six yards on Monday. Mike Wallace had five catches for just 48 yards despite seeing 11 targets. What’s the point in going here on a full slate?
The Takeaway: I shall reiterate, what’s the point in going here on a full slate? The Ravens have no passing game to speak of, and their running game is a three-headed mess. Baltimore is in the playoff hunt on the strength of their defense and league-leading turnover figure. For our DFS purposes, the offense is a snooze fest.
| New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8 | 49 | 28.5 | 8 | 49 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | Offense | 20.4 | 22 | 30 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.6 | 17 | 20 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 11 | 31 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 8 | 30 | 12 | 12 | New England Patriots | 28 | 22 | 29 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hogan | 54 | 33 | 5 | 438 | Benjamin | 58 | 36 | 2 | 537 | |
| Cooks | 81 | 51 | 5 | 869 | Jones | 61 | 23 | 2 | 269 | |
| Amendola | 59 | 44 | 2 | 455 | Matthews | 33 | 24 | 1 | 268 | |
| Gronkowski | 74 | 46 | 7 | 701 | Clay | 39 | 29 | 2 | 358 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Chris Hogan (NE WR) – Out (Shoulder) / Kelvin Benjamin (BUF WR) – Out (Knee) / Jordan Matthews (BUF WR) – Questionable (Knee)
NE Matchup Rating: 7.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady continues to do what Tom Brady does. He stuffs the stat sheet on a weekly basis, and there’s no reason to think that he is headed for regression anytime soon. He has ten touchdown passes over his last three games, and he has been piling up yards with ease when needed. Buffalo’s defense has been relatively strong against the pass, but they are not the same unit that they were at the very early point in the season. This isn’t a cupcake matchup by any means, but Brady is as good as they come. There’s no reason to knock him off the pedestal as the #1 overall quarterback of the week. The only question is whether or not he is worth the premium price tag, and that’s a fair question. I won’t be all in on Brady this week, but he’s certainly viable in all formats, as usual. The floor is as high as you will find at the position.
Running Backs: Buffalo has been gashed by opposing running games over the last month, but they made some scheme changes last week and did a much better job against the Chiefs. In addition, Bill Belichick intentionally removes the highest owned running back from the game plan every week. He uses that Microsoft Surface on the sideline to check DFS ownership and plans accordingly. I’m serious! That is the only logical reason why Rex Burkhead was quiet as a chalk play two weeks ago and then exploded against the Dolphins. Bill Belichick can laugh at us all for attempting to figure this out. As such, I am not going to try and figure it out.
Pass Catchers: The Bills rank in the top half of the league in DVOA against all receiver types, so it’s tough to distinguish a good matchup out of the group of pass catchers for New England. This profiles as one of those games where Tom Brady will spread the ball around, giving all of the receivers a bit of risk compared to a normal contest. Brandin Cooks has been locked in of late and is my favorite target of the bunch in this game. Rob Gronkowski will likely get a lot of attention after a big game last week, making him an interesting (though risky) fade candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw four or five different receivers that log somewhere between 50 and 70 receiving yards in this game for the Patriots.
The Takeaway: With this not being the easiest matchup we have seen for the Patriots, this might be a week to pump the breaks on them a little bit. Tom Brady is certainly a safe play, but he’s nowhere near the slam dunk DFS play that he has been over the last two weeks. Buffalo is more vulnerable on the ground, but good luck figuring out which New England running back to take. The pass catchers are all in play, but this profiles as a game where New England will spread the ball around a little more.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: What sort of blackmail does Nathan Peterman have on Sean McDermott? Why is McDermott talking like there is still a quarterback “competition” here? Tyrod Taylor just led the team to a road win over the Chiefs. Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in a HALF in his start. Maybe the angle is just to motivate Taylor, in which case it might not be the worst idea. Taylor is going to have to make plays with both his arm and his legs if the Bills want to win this game, but it’s tough to bank on the passing yards given his lack of weapons in the passing game. Taylor has rushed for at least 25 yards in four straight games, which is a nice boost to his fantasy value. If you’re desperate for a value play in a GPP, he isn’t the worst idea, but keep the risk in mind. His floor is very low, especially if he gets off to a slow start.
Running Backs: Since I patted myself on the back for the Kyle Rudolph call above, I have to chastise myself for the awful call on LeSean McCoy last week. He has been relatively poor over the last month outside of one solid game, and that continued last week. Game flow is going the wrong way much of the time, and teams are stacking the box to stop him with a passing game that doesn’t install any fear. McCoy averaged just 2.2 yards per carry against the Chiefs, and I don’t expect the sledding to get any easier this week. Don’t pay the premium for McCoy in this game. Now, watch him go out and dominate a week too late. He will be very low owned in this game, if that interests you from a game theory perspective in a GPP.
Pass Catchers: Charles Clay seems to be healthy again, and he might be the most reliable weapon the Bills have moving forward. Zay Jones has been playing on over 80% of the snaps of late, and he might be worth a peek after his gravity-defying touchdown grab last week. He has seen 24 targets over the last three games, including a team high 10 a week ago (though he caught just three of them). With Kelvin Benjamin sidelined, Clay and Jones should continue to see increased roles. They are not slam dunk plays, but they are reasonable salary savers on a week that doesn’t have a lot of reliable value at the outset.
The Takeaway: Don’t get super excited here, but I could see the Buffalo passing game waking up a bit, especially if they fall behind against the Patriots. Tyrod Taylor, Charles Clay, and Zay Jones are reasonable low cost options at their respective positions. I can’t trust LeSean McCoy given his recent performances and high price tag, so this will naturally be the week he goes off.