NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Two
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
| Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Lucas Oil Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.9 | 25 | 14 | 19 | Offense | 21.2 | 21 | 16 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.4 | 29 | 29 | 25 | Opp. Defense | 22.4 | 13 | 3 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 27 | 23 | 29 | 28 | Houston Texans | 19 | 18 | 5 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 158 | 89 | 10 | 1221 | Hilton | 115 | 58 | 5 | 987 | |
| Washington | 80 | 40 | 3 | 592 | Moncrief | 94 | 56 | 5 | 669 | |
| Shorts | 74 | 42 | 3 | 531 | Johnson | 61 | 31 | 3 | 386 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 17 | 14 | 1 | 147 | Fleener | 70 | 44 | 2 | 378 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Brian Hoyer (HOU, Out), Andrew Luck (IND, Out), Donte Moncrief (IND, Questionable)
HOU Matchup Rating: 5.5
IND Matchup Rating: 3.5
Houston Texans
Quarterback: T.J. Yates (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) will take over under center for the Texans with Brian Hoyer suffering from yet another head injury. Yates managed a solid fantasy output against the Jets in his first start, throwing for 200 yards and two scores despite a completion percentage under 50%. He’s not an efficient passer, and has limited playing time despite five years in the league. The Colts are a decent matchup for quarterbacks, but Yates just doesn’t have the sort of floor or upside we’re looking for.
Running Game: The Texans have joined Washington and the Giants in running back purgatory. There are no options to single out and use in daily fantasy, especially if Alfred Blue (FD $4,800, DK $3,700) is truly going to return to the running back fold after dealing with an injury last week. The Colts are decent against the run, anyway, and this game should be low scoring. I would avoid the backs in this backfield, as there are safer, better options, even at cheap prices.
Pass Catchers: T.J. Yates might not be good enough to use on his own, but I don’t think he’s bad enough to totally rule out the Houston passing game. In a fairly tough matchup with the Jets, he targeted DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,700, DK $8,500) early and often, connecting for his two touchdowns with the Clemson product. No other receiver saw more than six passes from Yates. A handful of slot receivers and secondary passing game options have done well against this Colts this year, so despite an uncertain target volume, Cecil Shorts (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) is in play. Hopkins is a top target, but not great for cash games due to his particularly bad QB situation, while Shorts is a secondary GPP play.
The Takeaway: The Texans are in a tough spot on offense thanks to injuries to starters at QB and RB. They have good wideouts who could still succeed in spite of their issues in the backfield, but it’s unlikely both will hit value this weekend. Pick and choose between Shorts and Hopkins in tournaments.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) or Charlie Whitehurst (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) will get the nod for Indianapolis in this game, and with a fairly neutral matchup on deck, both are fairly easy to avoid. Hasselbeck has played fairly well this season, and the Texans did allow him to throw for two scores in their last meeting, so he’d be worthy of a tournament flier, but I don’t think you need to go that crazy this week, even in tournaments.
Running Game: Frank Gore (FD $6,100, DK $4,000) has assumed a lead back role for the Colts down the stretch thanks to injuries to the backups who were supposed to play and help keep him fresh. Gore has at least 18 carries+targets in his last six games, and while he’s only scored twice in that span, it’s good enough volume to consider in a matchup with an average run defense like the one from Houston. When backs get carries against the Texans, the numbers can begin to look impressive, as LeSean McCoy proved a few weeks ago, and as Gore himself proved in Week 5. Those are the only two backs to get 20+ carries against Houston this season, and both had over 90 yards on the ground. If Gore gets that kind of volume, he should have a solid day at a reasonable price. He’s worthwhile for GPP lineups.
Pass Catchers: Donte Moncrief (FD $6,100, DK $4,300) has been the one seeing consistent targets from Matt Hasselbeck in recent weeks, but if Hasselbeck is on the shelf, that throws all of that out the window. The big play potential and GPP-winning upside will always come from T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,000, DK $5,900), and if Whitehurst starts, he’s probably the guy to roll with, as he’s more likely to turn nothing into something. The Texans have a strong cover corner in Jonathan Joseph, and may have him follow Hilton around a bit, but it’s more likely that he’ll just line up against whichever player heads to his side of the field on any given play. That means either guy is worthy of a spot in a tournament lineup, and I would just pick Moncrief if Hasselbeck starts, and Hilton if Whitehurst starts, if you need a tiebreaker.
The Takeaway: The Colts aren’t expected to score many points, but if they do, it will likely be concentrated to Gore, Hilton or Moncrief.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
| Arizona Cardinals | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 50.5 | 27 | 3.5 | 50.5 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 31.2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | Offense | 23.2 | 14 | 21 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 21 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 31 | 19 | 32 | 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 8 | 7 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 129 | 96 | 7 | 1088 | Matthews | 100 | 64 | 4 | 680 | |
| Floyd | 69 | 40 | 6 | 652 | Cooper | 35 | 19 | 2 | 305 | |
| Brown | 77 | 55 | 5 | 917 | Agholor | 35 | 19 | 1 | 225 | |
| Fells | 23 | 17 | 3 | 250 | Celek | 30 | 22 | 3 | 311 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andre Ellington (ARI, Questionable)
ARI Matchup Rating: 8.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Four of the six games involving the Eagles since their bye week have featured 50 or more total points scored, and the Cardinals are likely to do their part, scoring 26 or more points in nine of their 13 games this season. Carson Palmer (FD $8,700, DK $7,000) is arguably the most important member of the offense, as the veteran signal caller is throwing 30-40 passes per game, completing over 60% of them, and finding the end zone on two or more throws per game on a fairly regular basis. Palmer has ten multi-touchdown outings this season, and we shouldn’t anticipate any exceptions against the team that allows the second-most points to opposing QBs and plays at the highest pace. The Cardinals will run more plays more often than they normally do, which means Palmer and company will get to pass against a Philly defense that has allowed 15 total touchdowns to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. He’s an elite play in all formats despite his hefty price tag, as it’s hard to imagine him not finishing right up there with Newton and Wilson as the highest scoring QBs of the weekend.
Running Game: The Eagles give up big numbers in the passing game due to inconsistent play from talented players and due to the nature of their up-tempo offense. They give up big numbers on the ground because they just don’t have a good run defense. Philly ranks tenth in DVOA against the pass, but 21st against the run, and the Eagles have allowed over 100 rushing yards from running backs per game this season, but only eight total touchdowns. They rank 27th at defending backs as receivers, as well, which sets up perfectly for David Johnson (FD $6,500, DK $5,700). The rookie back for the Cardinals gets a few targets per game and is a skilled receiver, and is seeing a healthy volume of carries with all of the injuries at the running back position. He also scores touchdowns on a frequent basis thanks to the efficient nature of the Cardinal offense, which may overcome the Eagles’ relative strength at keeping backs out of the end zone. Even with the concerns about touchdown upside against Philly, Johnson is a core play at a still affordable price, especially on FanDuel.
Pass Catchers: Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,200, DK $7,300), John Brown (FD $6,300, DK $4,900) and Michael Floyd (FD $6,100, DK $4,400) are the obvious top options in the Arizona passing game, and any of the three are capable of being the one with a big play or two, or a bigger share of the offense. Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,200, DK $7,300) lines up in the slot more often than not, which means a competitive matchup with Malcolm Jenkins, who has helped lead the Eagles to a top-10 DVOA against third, fourth and fifth receiver options. However, Fitzgerald is obviously more talented than guys like Cole Beasley and Dwayne Harris, so he’s still in play, as he’s the focal point of the passing attack. On the outside, Floyd is more boom or bust than Brown, as the former tends to see his volume fluctuate, while the latter is more regularly involved at a middling rate. Both make for fine tournament plays. Fitzgerald is cash viable, as prior to last week he had double-digit targets in five straight, and is a top threat to score against a team that has allowed a ton of points to wideouts this season (third-most in the NFL).
The Takeaway: The Eagles give up plenty of points, and the Cardinals are no strangers to scoring early and often. The passing game is the preferred way to get high upside, but David Johnson has a pretty safe floor for his price and is viable as well.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Sam Bradford (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) is back under center for the Eagles and back to his disappointing ways. Even at home, a matchup with the elite Arizona pass defense (fifth in DVOA, 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs) isn’t the place to try to snag a bargain. When the Eagles have done well recently, it’s been special teams, defense and running backs, not Bradford, doing the heavy lifting.
Running Game: It’s impossible to trust anything we hear about the Philadelphia running backs at this point, as the play of any of the four, and the behavior of DeMarco Murray (FD $5,700, DK $4,000), could change the rotation in an instant. The Cardinals rank second in DVOA against the run, but 27th against the pass when defending RBs, so Murray and Darren Sproles (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) hold value as passing game targets for the check down-happy Bradford. Otherwise, this is a situation to avoid as well.
Pass Catchers: The Eagles will likely score two or three touchdowns, but predicting which players will find the end zone in such a spread out offense is a nightmare. Jordan Matthews (FD $6,100, DK $4,300) has fallen out of his favorable role in the offense, and the targets and opportunities are just spread all around, making no one player usable in daily fantasy.
The Takeaway: The Eagles are in a tough spot against a very good defense. Their running backs are viable for their PPR upside, but otherwise, I don’t see a way any one player reliably returns value in this contest.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
| Carolina Panthers | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | 48 | 26.5 | 5 | 48 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 31.6 | 1 | 25 | 2 | Offense | 26.0 | 7 | 7 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.6 | 20 | 32 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 29 | 26 | 23 | 30 | Carolina Panthers | 4 | 13 | 10 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 38 | 22 | 3 | 337 | Beckham | 142 | 85 | 12 | 1323 | |
| Ginn | 80 | 37 | 8 | 705 | Harris | 52 | 33 | 4 | 393 | |
| Funchess | 47 | 22 | 3 | 323 | Randle | 73 | 47 | 5 | 591 | |
| Olsen | 108 | 65 | 6 | 969 | Tye | 42 | 29 | 1 | 326 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jonathan Stewart (CAR, Out)
CAR Matchup Rating: 8.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 3.5
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton (FD $9,400, DK $7,800) and the Panthers have scored 27 or more points in every game since Week 2, and have the potential for five or six touchdowns in a game, with most of the scoring revolving around Newton. Cam has 35 total touchdowns on the season, including eight over the last two games. This week he’ll face a New York defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and that ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass. Newton is expensive, but with his floor of 200 yards and two touchdowns and a few rushing yards with a potential rushing score, he’s worth every penny. Add in extra goal-line rushing responsibilities with Jonathan Stewart sidelined, and you have a core play in any format with a high floor and the highest ceiling of any passer.
Running Game: Fozzy Whittaker (FD $4,800, DK $3,000), Mike Tolbert (FD $4,600, DK $3,000), and Cameron Artis-Payne (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) will likely split the carries for the Panthers this week with Stewart on the sidelines. Tolbert is the one with the most carries entering this week’s action, but is also the one with the role least likely to change. He’s a short yardage and goal-line change of pace back, and is unlikely to feature on an every down basis. The bulk of the work will likely be split between Whittaker and Artis-Payne, and since CAP has been watching from the bench for most of the team’s recent games, Whittaker is probably the safest bet for a team lead in carries. None of them have a workload that justifies use in a cash game, especially when there are viable options at virtually every price level above the minimum. I would prefer Fozzy and Tolbert before CAP in GPPs, but any of the three could score two touchdowns and pick up 40 yards from scrimmage and be a GPP winner. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most points to running backs on the season, including 12 total touchdowns in 13 games. That’s encouraging enough to use any of these players, depending on your gut feeling and tolerance for risk.
Pass Catchers: “(player-popup)Ted Ginn Jr (FD $6,600, DK $4,600) had a huge game last week, but did so on only three targets. Normally that level of volume isn’t enough for big production from the inefficient receiver, but he had an above average outing and translated his trio of targets into two long scores. Carolina wideouts didn’t have to do much in a blowout win over Atlanta, and will have a tougher matchup this week against the Giants. New York has capable corners, which has me focusing my attention more on Greg Olsen (FD $6,800, DK $6,900). The Giants rank third in points allowed to tight ends, and Olsen is one of the best and most consistent in the NFL. He has upside for 8/100/1, which is huge even for a top wideout, let alone a tight end priced like a low-end WR2. Olsen is a core play in any format despite his rising price, as his weekly involvement in the offense and this premium matchup offset any other concerns.
The Takeaway: The Panthers are on a roll offensively, and face one of the league’s worst defenses this week. The running back situation is unclear, but the top two options (Newton and Olsen) are worthwhile in any format.
New York Giants
Quarterback: According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers have a defense that is closer to the best team in the league (the Broncos) than the third-best (the Chiefs). They are an elite team who play at a level slightly higher than the average “great” defense, and should be treated with respect from a fantasy standpoint. The numbers prove this, as opposing QBs have been held to around 15 FanDuel points per game against the Panthers, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Eli Manning (FD $7,200, DK $5,600) has prevailed in tricky spots in the past, but more often than not, I’m not going to bank on Manning in such a tough matchup when he’s fairly streaky without matchups involved.
Running Game: The Giants’ running game had been a total mess, but then last week the team featured Rashad Jennings (FD $4,700, DK $3,500) and he managed just around four yards per attempt and handled 24 touches. If he continues to get that sort of volume, there will come a day when we can use him over the final few weeks of the season, but a game against Carolina is the wrong spot to target New York runners. The Panthers rank fourth in DVOA against the run, and Jennings is an average back who isn’t really capable of breaking free for big gains in tough spots.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,100, DK $9,200) is a special player, and “matchup” is not a good reason to take him out of consideration. But receivers just don’t have big games against Josh Norman. Norman is the best corner in the league, and has played incredibly well this season, holding Julio Jones to limited production and generally keeping some good to great wideouts in check. Beckham is a step above all of those wideouts, potentially even Jones, but he may see his upside or his quarterback’s willingness to throw him the ball limited this week. The Seahawks are the only team with a better DVOA against opposing WR1, and it’s very, very close. Use Beckham in one lineup just in case, but don’t invest in the normally dominant Giants wideout. No other New York pass catcher is in play with such a tough matchup on deck. Similar to the Eagles this week, the Giants will score a few points, but there’s no good way of knowing where those points will come from with Beckham likely held under his normal levels of production.
The Takeaway: The Giants may be projected to score 20+ points, but I don’t see a lot of potential from this offense against an elite Carolina defense. Beckham and Manning are the only guys to consider in a GPP lineup or two, but nothing more.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
| Tennessee Titans | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 47 | 16.5 | -14 | 47 | 30.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.5 | 27 | 22 | 22 | Offense | 30.9 | 3 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.5 | 8 | 14 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 23 | 12 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 8 | 14 | 17 | 4 | Tennessee Titans | 28 | 6 | 26 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wright | 57 | 33 | 3 | 407 | LaFell | 64 | 30 | 0 | 401 | |
| Douglas | 54 | 26 | 2 | 292 | Amendola | 81 | 62 | 3 | 639 | |
| Green-Beckham | 50 | 24 | 3 | 415 | Martin | 20 | 13 | 2 | 171 | |
| Walker | 99 | 74 | 4 | 871 | Gronkowski | 96 | 61 | 10 | 1018 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kendall Wright (TEN, Out), Julian Edelman (NE, Doubtful), Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski (NE, Probable)
TEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
NE Matchup Rating: 8.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The Titans have a solid young QB prospect in Marcus Mariota (FD $7,300, DK $5,500), but this week he faces a tough task against a New England pass defense that has been playing well over the past couple of months. After giving up three touchdowns to a couple of different passers over the first six weeks, the Pats have allowed just eight passing touchdowns from QBs over the past eight games. According to Football Outsiders’ weighted defense, which favors recent results, the Patriots are a top-ten defensive team, and the Titans are overwhelming underdogs. Mariota is a tough sell this week in daily fantasy.
Running Game: The Patriots have allowed decent games to running backs in recent weeks (LeSean McCoy and the Denver backs come to mind), but which runner for the Titans can we trust? Antonio Andrews (FD $5,400, DK $3,600) is supposed to be the lead back, but David Cobb (FD $4,500, DK $3,200) is getting a healthy amount of snaps and opportunities, too. Game flow will likely restrict the volume for this group of backs, anyways, and they can be safely avoided.
Pass Catchers: Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,400, DK $3,800) has sky-high potential on any given week, and is probably the only Titan worth considering now that he’s carving out a more consistent role in the offense. Otherwise, the Titans lack in talented wideouts to challenge the New England secondary, and their best weapon, Delanie Walker (FD $6,300, DK $5,600), is held back by a New England defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
The Takeaway: DGB is a tournament flier, but I am otherwise avoiding the Titans this week. They’re huge underdogs on the road against an improving defense.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: The Titans did not show up on paper as an elite matchup for quarterbacks earlier this season, when they were limiting damage and keeping quarterbacks from blowup games. But Since Week 9, they’ve allowed four different passers to go for three or more touchdowns, including eight touchdown throws conceded over the last two games. Tom Brady (FD $9,500, DK $7,800) has been playing well recently despite a lack of weapons, and continues to be an elite fantasy option. Roster him where his salary makes sense, and make sure to have some exposure to him this weekend.
Running Game: With LeGarrette Blount done for the season, James White (FD $6,400, DK $4,600) and Brandon Bolden (FD $5,500, DK $3,200) will run the show at the running back spot for the Patriots. Bolden will likely play more in the Blount role, but he’s a more well-rounded player than Blount, but has been buried on the depth chart for what must be a good reason. In a game which shouldn’t see a ton of need for “passing situations” for the Patriots, White doesn’t hold much appeal, especially when considering the Titans have an elite running back pass defense. Bolden is the guy to own in this one, and while we can’t just assume 15-20 touches, he’s still priced at a level where 10-12 good touches won’t kill your lineups. Consider him in tournaments and as a secondary cash game option.
Pass Catchers: Julian Edelman (DK $7,400) might play without a single owner on FanDuel reaping the benefits, as he’s unavailable for this weekend’s slate. DraftKings players should keep an eye on his status, as he’d be a worthwhile GPP play if he starts. His presence would render Danny Amendola (FD $7,000, DK $5,700) unusable at his current price, as well as Brandon LaFell (FD $6,300, DK $4,500). Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,500, DK $7,700), on the other hand, remains the top tight end and is a strong option in all formats where you can afford his big price tag. If Edelman doesn’t play, Amendola still has value and LaFell is a GPP option, and Gronk gets even more of a boost.
The Takeaway: Keep an eye on the injury status of Julian Edelman, as he could fly under the radar on DraftKings if he suits up and is expected to play in full. Gronk, Bolden and Brady all have value no matter what happens with Edelman, while Amendola and LaFell are in “wait and see” mode.
