NFL Grind Down: Week 3
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
| Atlanta Falcons | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45 | 23.25 | 1.5 | 45 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 11 | 3 | 22 | Offense | 23.5 | 15 | 5 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 22.0 | 13 | 29 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 12 | 4 | 7 | Atlanta Falcons | 16 | 32 | 16 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 26 | 22 | 2 | 276 | Williams | 15 | 9 | 1 | 144 | |
| White | 9 | 4 | 0 | 84 | Beasley | 11 | 8 | 0 | 63 | |
| Hankerson | 15 | 8 | 1 | 93 | Street | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | |
| Tamme | 9 | 7 | 0 | 96 | Witten | 17 | 15 | 2 | 116 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tevin Coleman (ATL, Ribs, Out), Tony Romo (DAL, Clavicle, Out), Jason Witten (DAL, Ankle/Knee, Questionable), Dez Bryant (DAL, Foot, Out),
ATL Matchup Rating: 4.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 5.0
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $8,300, DK $7,100) and the Falcons catch the Cowboys at a good time, as several key contributors for Dallas are hurting at several positions. Rookie pass rusher Randy Gregory is out, and Greg Hardy won’t return for another couple of weeks. But Sean Lee has returned to strengthen the linebacking corps, and the healthy defensive backs for Dallas have had a strong start to the year, ranking sixth in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass so far. The Cowboys play at a slow tempo and will look to keep the ball away from the Atlanta offense, especially with Tony Romo out, so I can’t recommend Ryan with any confidence, especially with other preferred options on the board at similar or lower prices.
Running Game: With Tevin Coleman likely out, Devonta Freeman (FD $6,500, DK $4,600) has an uncontested backfield for this week against a run defense that was run of the mill a year ago, but that now features a healthy Sean Lee and should be a bit more stout against opposing running backs. Freeman’s volume will exceed the expectations set by his price, but his general lack of efficiency (2.0 yards per attempt this season) leaves him as a secondary option at best. He is an effective receiver out of the backfield, and is much more appealing on DraftKings, where his floor is higher thanks to PPR scoring.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones (FD $9,000, DK $9,000) is matchup proof, and will likely see 12-15 targets, even in a game with a slow tempo thanks to the Dallas offense. The Cowboys follow the Tampa 2 model on defense and play sides with their corners, which means Julio’s preferred left side of the offense will more often than not be covered by right corner Morris Claiborne, and not the more talented Brandon Carr. The Falcons will move Julio around and get him into preferred matchups no matter who he’s against, and according to Fox Sports Southwest, he averages nearly 100 yards and a touchdown against Tampa 2 schemes. He doesn’t have as high of a ceiling thanks to an expected slow tempo and the possibility of an easy win over the injury-riddled Cowboys, but he’s always a cash game option. Roddy White (FD $6,100, DK $5,000) took a backseat to Leonard Hankerson (FD $5,700, DK $3,800) last week, and these two will likely alternate priority in the offense based on matchup. Slot corner Tyler Patmon is the weak link in the Dallas pass coverage, per PFF, which means Hankerson would be the preferred target this week.
The Takeaway: Matt Ryan price leaves him a bit too expensive for what should be a very slow game against a decent defense, but his receivers are in play, as the volume of targets should be focused on two or three key players. Julio Jones is a cash game option, while Leonard Hankerson is a tournament play. Devonta Freeman is a PPR option if a site has him priced cheap enough to risk his inefficient running ability.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Brandon Weeden (FD $6,500, DK $5,200) has seen his price bump up to a range where many established starters can currently be found. The Falcons don’t have a strong pass defense, but Weeden is of little interest to me, especially when good bargain quarterbacks are available this week.
Running Game: The Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs since the start of last season. They’ve faced two poor rushing offenses to start the season in the Giants and Eagles, and now face the Cowboys, who have an elite run blocking offensive line. Joseph Randle (FD $6,500, DK $5,100) has not impressed on his carries as the lead back for Dallas so far, but with no better option available, he’ll likely lead the way again against Atlanta. Expect his volume to go up as the Cowboys try to keep Brandon Weeden from having to throw frequently, which makes him a tournament option against the weak Atlanta run defense.
Pass Catchers: If Jason Witten (FD $6,000, DK $4,500) plays, he’ll face a defense that has limited tight ends well since the start of last year. He’d receive a healthy amount of targets, but would have limited upside. If Witten is out, those short to intermediate targets would likely go to Cole Beasley (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) and Lance Dunbar (FD $4,900, DK $3,200) out of the backfield, both of whom are viable on PPR sites. Terrance Williams (FD $6,500, DK $4,600) did score a touchdown on the receiving end of a Weeden pass last week, but his touchdown potential is still quite low, even in a seemingly favorable matchup. Add in the potential coverage of top cover corner Desmond Trufant, and I’ll be sticking to Beasley and a potentially healthy Witten on PPR sites only, and on only a couple of tournament lineups at that.
The Takeaway: The Dallas offense is lacking in talent at the moment, and they’re projected to lose at home in a relatively low scoring affair with a slow tempo (of their own design). There is nothing of great interest in this game, and the Atlanta defense might be a sneaky tournament option against a quarterback with more career interceptions than touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
| Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 45 | 24 | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 10.5 | 32 | 14 | 26 | Offense | 28.0 | 7 | 18 | 6 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 11 | 4 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 23.5 | 18 | 10 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 10 | 7 | 9 | 26 | Indianapolis Colts | 15 | 19 | 23 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 21 | 11 | 0 | 133 | Wright | 8 | 6 | 1 | 118 | |
| Johnson | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51 | Douglas | 10 | 3 | 1 | 27 | |
| Moncrief | 19 | 13 | 2 | 168 | Hunter | 4 | 3 | 0 | 45 | |
| Fleener | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Walker | 3 | 3 | 1 | 43 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dwayne Allen (IND, Ankle, Out), Delanie Walker (TEN, Wrist, Probable)
IND Matchup Rating: 4.5
TEN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Andrew Luck (FD $9,000, DK $7,900) started the 2015 season with multiple interceptions in back to back games, something he hasn’t done since Weeks 12 and 13 of his rookie season. The Stanford product has always been more turnover prone than his coaches and fantasy owners would prefer, but rarely does he string together multiple poor performances like the ones we’ve seen to start this season. It would be difficult to imagine a matchup against the Titans, who are still without top corner Jason McCourty, would lead to a third straight disappointment for Luck. The Titans rank 24th in DVOA against the pass since the start of last year, and rank 20th or worse in pass rush and pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus over that same span. Luck is expensive, but he’s worth it, as a bounce back is coming, even with a lackluster offensive line, anemic running game, and injured/old receiving corps. He may even come at a lower ownership than normal, making him a great tournament play.
Running Game: Frank Gore (FD $7,000, DK $4,500) has only 23 carries through two games, and while he and the Colts face a defense that is prone to giving up solid fantasy performances on the ground, there’s no security in this rushing attack for Indianapolis. Gore’s price on DraftKings is appealing enough to consider him in tournaments where you’re not using a Colts passing game option, but otherwise, he’s just not trustworthy in this offense behind a bottom-five run blocking line, according to PFF.
Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,600, DK $6,700) is playing hurt, and therefore comes at a discount. He’ll see the coverage of Coty Sensabaugh and Blidi Wreh-Wilson, the latter being one of our favorite players to pick on in the passing game in all of the NFL. That means, according to Pro Football Focus, Donte Moncrief (FD $6,000, DK $4,800) will see plenty of Perrish Cox, who is the only respect-worthy coverage man the Titans have active at the moment. Moncrief can still get production in a tougher matchup. Yet despite his size, Hilton remains the top red zone target for Luck, has the easier matchup, and is cheaper than normal. He’s the better wide receiver play to stack with Luck, assuming we hear good news about his health as the weekend approaches. Moncrief is in play as a tournament option, but his ownership will likely be higher than we’re looking for. With Dwayne Allen (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) hurt, Coby Fleener (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) is poised to step into the spotlight at tight end, and makes for one of the best cheap plays at the position. He’s inconsistent, but the upside is undeniable against a team that ranks second-worst at defending tight ends since the start of last season, according to Football Outsiders.
The Takeaway: Andrew Luck and a passing game target or two are your preferred ways to attack this side of this game, with T.Y. Hilton representing the safer option should his injury status continue to look favorable as game day approaches. Coby Fleener is a great value play at tight end, and Donte Moncrief could be on the verge of a breakout, even with the tougher matchup.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Marcus Mariota (FD $7,300, DK $6,100) has started the season on a high note, with six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. He has looked shaky at times, especially with his ball security, but he’s been productive enough as a passer to merit consideration in daily fantasy. A home game against the Colts means a matchup with a pass defense that has one very talented corner (Vontae Davis), and not a lot else to worry about. Their pass rush has been toothless this year, and they allow plenty of points to tight ends (11th most since the start of last year), a position Mariota has targeted with relative frequency so far this season. His price has crept up a bit farther than I’d like, but he’s a tournament differentiation option.
Running Game: The Colts run defense isn’t nearly as bad as their pass defense, and they’re expected to lose this matchup, so Bishop Sankey (FD $6,300, DK $4,600) and company aren’t on my radar. The unpredictable usage split between Sankey and Dexter McCluster (FD $5,400, DK $3,000), with Terrance West (FD $5,300, DK $3,400) lurking to steal carries as well, means there’s nothing reliable to target, even if this was a matchup we thought would be exploitable.
Pass Catchers: Vontae Davis has yet to play a snap in the slot this season, and played only 16 snaps inside all of last season. That means while he’s likely to shadow Kendall Wright (FD $5,900, DK $5,000) on occasion, he’s unlikely to follow him inside, a position Wright goes to on a regular basis. Slot corner Darius Butler is still out, and Wright is in play as the top receiving option for Mariota, but only in tournaments due to an uncertain workload. Harry Douglas (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has plenty of targets for the Titans so far this season, but little to show for it. Delanie Walker (FD $5,200, DK $3,400) looks set to return from injury, and while he’s one of several tight ends the Titans will employ, he’s the top option if you’re looking for a more under-the-radar tight end play. Fleener is a better choice on the other side of this matchup, and other value tight ends are available in other games, so I’ll likely pass.
The Takeaway: The Titans are home underdogs against a subpar pass defense, which means Marcus Mariota is a tournament option, but it’s tough to find a pass-catcher to pair with him. The running game has no appeal thanks to sporadic substitutions and unfavorable expected game script.
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns
| Oakland Raiders | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | FirstEnergy Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 42.5 | 19.5 | -3.5 | 42.5 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 11 | 10 | 23 | Offense | 19.0 | 23 | 29 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.5 | 14 | 8 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 33.0 | 31 | 30 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 7 | 15 | 23 | 21 | Oakland Raiders | 24 | 30 | 10 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Crabtree | 24 | 14 | 1 | 148 | Hawkins | 10 | 6 | 0 | 67 | |
| Cooper | 20 | 12 | 0 | 156 | Benjamin | 7 | 6 | 3 | 204 | |
| Streater | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | Hartline | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20 | |
| Rivera | 7 | 4 | 0 | 19 | Barnidge | 6 | 4 | 0 | 55 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Josh McCown (CLE, Concussion, Will Play), Robert Turbin (CLE, Ankle, Out)
OAK Matchup Rating: 5.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 6.0
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Last season, the Cleveland Browns were not a team to target with quarterbacks all that often, as they led Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage grades, and allowed the seventh-fewest points to opposing signal callers. And while their four touchdowns allowed through the air in two weeks should seem a bit concerning, they’re still only allowing around 15 FanDuel points per game to the position, which is essentially the same as last year. This limits the upside for Derek Carr (FD $6,600, DK $5,300), who carries plenty of momentum into this game coming off of a three-touchdown performance against the Ravens. I can’t justify spending a roster spot on Carr in this tough spot on the road against a good pass defense.
Running Game: I can justify spending a roster spot on Latavius Murray (FD $7,000, DK $5,800), however. Murray has 18 touches in each of his first two games, and finally found his way into the end zone in Week 2 against the Ravens (a team that is very tough against opposing running backs for fantasy purposes). This week he gets to face a Cleveland defense that ranks last in DVOA against the run since the start of last year, and that has allowed the most rushing yards so far this season. It’s doubtful that the Browns will get out to enough of a lead to force the Raiders to throw the ball exclusively, so look for Murray to see 20 or more touches and find plenty of success against this poor run defense. He’s a top play in all formats.
Pass Catchers: I’m not overly excited about Derek Carr, but I can see one of the Raiders’ wide receivers returning value this weekend. The problem is, I’m not sure we can know which one it will be. Michael Crabtree (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) moves from outside to the slot on occasion, and Amari Cooper (FD $6,900, DK $6,200) has lined up on both sides of the field so far this year, meaning that both would see time against Joe Haden if he plays sides. However, the Browns All-Pro corner could be assigned to one of the two receivers full-time (or part-time), leaving the capable veteran Tramon Williams on the other wideout. Haden has actually been easier to produce against than Williams so far this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and I’m not sure “target a receiver covered by Joe Haden with a second-year quarterback under center” is a strategy I’ll employ this week. No other pass catcher for Oakland has more than half as many targets as either Cooper or Crabtree, meaning if you’re looking for a tournament play at receiver here, pick whichever one you think will find success against a tough pass defense. Crabtree’s occasional usage in the slot would lead me to pick him, if forced to choose.
The Takeaway: Latavius Murray is a top play, while the Oakland passing game may score a touchdown or two, but figuring out who will be on the receiving end is a tough task against a good defense. Stick with the running game in this one.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: In Week 10 against Washington last season, Josh McCown (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions. It was the closest we’ve come to getting a revival of the daily fantasy hero from 2013, who led the Bears offense to 13 touchdowns during his handful of appearances. Since that game against Washington last year, McCown has thrown eight interceptions, only five touchdowns, and failed to complete more than 55% of his passes on five of seven occasions. He now plays for a Cleveland offense that lacks the sort of weapons he had in Chicago or Tampa, and that was propped up in Week 2 by Johnny Manziel making impressive deep throws to Travis Benjamin. There’s nothing of interest in this passing game.
Running Game: The Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs since the start of last season. And while a single running back hasn’t broken out for a big game against them yet this year, they have allowed three rushing touchdowns and 4.2 yards per carry against two teams with committee backfields (the Bengals and Ravens). They face another committee backfield this week, led by Isaiah Crowell (FD $6,600, DK $4,500), but with Duke Johnson (FD $5,600, DK $3,400) also getting plenty of opportunities. Crowell is the only back to see a carry in the red zone so far this season, so he’d be the smarter choice, but the upside here is quite limited.
Pass Catchers: No Cleveland player has more than ten targets this year, and the man with ten targets, Andrew Hawkins (FD $4,500, DK $3,300), has six catches for 67 yards. People will likely want to roster Travis Benjamin (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) again, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle after his impressive start to the season, but he has seven targets in two games, and I’m not rostering a wide receiver to chase points in the return game. There’s no one worth rostering in the passing game with McCown under center.
The Takeaway: The presence of Josh McCown at quarterback makes it tough for me to recommend any passing game options, and the committee at running back limits the upside for Crowell and Johnson. Crowell is the guy you want to target if you think the Browns are in for a productive day against the Raiders.