NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Four
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
| Minnesota Vikings | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 43 | 18 | -7 | 43 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 19 | 32 | 3 | Offense | 24.7 | 13 | 17 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 16.7 | 5 | 17 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 22 | 1 | 16 | Minnesota Vikings | 11 | 13 | 15 | 19 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wallace | 14 | 12 | 0 | 150 | Thomas | 38 | 24 | 1 | 268 | |
| Johnson | 8 | 6 | 0 | 46 | Sanders | 35 | 22 | 2 | 239 | |
| Wright | 10 | 5 | 0 | 101 | Latimer | |||||
| Rudolph | 19 | 12 | 1 | 97 | Daniels | 16 | 10 | 1 | 52 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Charles Johnson (MIN, Ribs, Out), C.J. Anderson, Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas (DEN, Various injuries, Probable)
MIN Matchup Rating: 3.0
DEN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Football Outsiders rank the Broncos as the top pass defense and project them to be the best defense this season when all is said and done. Denver has allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks and wideouts so far this year. They have two elite corners and some top pass rushers. Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,500, DK $5,700) is not an option in any format.
Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $9,000, DK $7,800) is always capable of getting things going in tough matchups, but the Broncos have such a good defense and the Vikings are heavy underdogs. Peterson will likely draw more attention than he deserves from daily fantasy players, and is a weak tournament play as a result. Even if he recreates the performance of Jamaal Charles from Week 2 against the Denver defense, he’d still only barely hit value at his high price tag, and that is his ceiling, not his median projection.
Pass Catchers: Elite corners, injured top receivers and a quarterback who hasn’t looked comfortable yet this season? “No, thank you” across the board to this passing game.
The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson should never be completely counted out, but you can cross off any other Viking from your cheat sheet this week.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: The Broncos have been playing at an average tempo this year and have produced somewhat average results on offense. They can’t get a running game going and Peyton Manning (FD $8,200, DK $7,200) hasn’t looked at his best. Age has likely caught up to the veteran signal caller, but he’s savvy enough to post big numbers when given the opportunity. The Vikings are ranked in the top half of the league against the pass according to Football Outsiders, and haven’t allowed any big numbers yet this year, so Manning is a tournament option in what should be an easy win for his Broncos.
Running Game: It appears the Broncos really want C.J. Anderson (FD $6,900, DK $5,900) to be the guy at running back. They’ll give him every opportunity this week against a defense that ranks 23rd in the league against the run in DVOA, and 23rd in run defense grades according to PFF. He’s still just a tournament option thanks to his inconsistencies so far this year, and his likely nagging injury concerns. But the matchup is definitely not one to fear.
Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $8,500, DK $8,100) and Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,900, DK $7,700) are the top receiving threats for the Broncos, and they’ve seen nearly 60% of the team’s targets this year. It would be foolish to target anyone else. Xavier Rhodes will likely shadow Thomas, but just because a corner shadows a receiver, it doesn’t mean he’s actually going to do anything to stop said receiver. Take your pick in tournaments between these two players.
The Takeaway: The Broncos should win this game easily, and they may try a bit harder than normal to establish the run game and get C.J. Anderson going. He, along with the stars in the passing game, are options for your GPP lineups.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
| Dallas Cowboys | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 12 | 10 | 14 | Offense | 20.0 | 19 | 5 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 26 | 21 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 20 | 12 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 31 | 16 | 7 | 31 | Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 25 | 13 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Williams | 17 | 9 | 1 | 144 | Colston | 18 | 11 | 0 | 145 | |
| Beasley | 15 | 12 | 0 | 112 | Cooks | 23 | 16 | 0 | 190 | |
| Street | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | Coleman | 16 | 8 | 1 | 83 | |
| Witten | 25 | 21 | 2 | 181 | Watson | 13 | 9 | 0 | 73 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tony Romo (DAL, Shoulder, Out), Dez Bryant (DAL, Foot, Out), Drew Brees (NO, Shoulder, Probable), Brandin Cooks (NO, Ankle, Probable)
DAL Matchup Rating: 6.0
NO Matchup Rating: 5.5
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: The box scores for Brandon Weeden (FD $6,400, DK $5,100) don’t look all that bad, but there’s not much upside on an offense that lacks weapons that can elevate the level of play from a backup-level passer like Weeden. The Saints are a very, very easy matchup for opposing quarterbacks, as they’re last in the NFL in DVOA against the pass, so Weeden is a tournament option, but don’t expect much from a player who has done nothing but disappoint since entering the NFL.
Running Game: Joseph Randle (FD $7,400, DK $5,500) had a three-touchdown “breakout” last week, but outside of four 15+ yard runs, Randle has 44 carries for 103 yards this year. He’s not consistent or efficient, even behind the elite offensive line for Dallas, and should be considered a tournament option with a likely high ownership percentage. The fact that the Cowboys are working to get Christine Michael more involved in practices should give you pause when considering Randle for fantasy purposes, despite his gaudy box score thanks to his touchdowns.
Pass Catchers: Jason Witten (FD $6,000, DK $4,400) is the top receiving options for Weeden’s offense, but he’s only in play on PPR sites thanks to his lack of athleticism compounded by multiple lower-body injuries. Lance Dunbar (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) seems to be a favored check down option for Weeden, and Terrance Williams (FD $5,900, DK $4,500) should theoretically be involved in the passing game, but he didn’t record any stats against the Falcons. Both are tournament options, with Dunbar preferred on PPR sites.
The Takeaway: The absence of Romo and Bryant sucks nearly all of the life out of this offense. They play at a very slow tempo and lack playmakers to break the game open. Target with caution.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Drew Brees (FD $8,400, DK $7,400) may return from his injury this week, but he won’t be 100%, and he hasn’t looked sharp so far this season. Dallas are an above average defense against the pass according to any measure (PFF, Football Outsiders, fantasy points against), and I’ll not be risking any lineups on Brees’ health and production with such a lacking supporting cast on offense.
Running Game: Dallas is weak against the run, and we saw what Devonta Freeman did to them a week ago. Mark Ingram (FD $8,100, DK $6,000) is capable of doing the same, but his game logs this year don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Still, if Brees is back, with the Saints playing at home, Ingram’s 20 or so touches should turn into at least one score. He’s a secondary option thanks to his inflated price on FanDuel, but he’s much more appealing on DraftKings, where his passing game involvement is more handsomely rewarded.
Pass Catchers: Brandin Cooks (FD $7,000, DK $6,100) has not lived up to expectations so far this season, but his production has gradually increased week-to-week. He faces a Dallas defense that is fairly strong against the pass, however, and should be used sparingly in tournaments due to all the uncertainty with his health, offense and matchup. Marques Colston (FD $5,400, DK $4,500) and Willie Snead (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) may have their days to shine once we figure out the Saints passing offense, and I wouldn’t rule them out of tournament consideration, but they’re not high on my radar.
The Takeaway: This game is very tough to get a read on, as backup quarterbacks and lackluster options at the skill positions limit the potential of two offenses we normally associate with scoring points. If Brees plays, the Saints are viable tournament options, but I’m not 100% convinced that he’s going to be effective as he battles injuries and a decline in skill as his career winds to a close.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
| Detroit Lions | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 43 | 16.75 | -9.5 | 43 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.7 | 23 | 12 | 32 | Offense | 24.7 | 13 | 25 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 10 | 4 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 27.7 | 24 | 25 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 1 | 5 | Detroit Lions | 22 | 18 | 23 | 27 | ||
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Johnson | 34 | 20 | 1 | 199 | Baldwin | 20 | 17 | 1 | 162 | |
| Tate | 25 | 15 | 0 | 161 | Kearse | 18 | 14 | 0 | 152 | |
| Fuller | Lockett | 7 | 6 | 0 | 51 | |||||
| Ebron | 20 | 13 | 2 | 157 | Graham | 18 | 14 | 2 | 145 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Joique Bell (DET, Ankle, Out), Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Hamstring, Questionable)
DET Matchup Rating: 2.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 7.0
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: After watching the Rams pass against the Seahawks in Week 1, and with Aaron Rodgers and company moving the ball well against them in Week 2, there is reason to believe the Seahawks can be exposed via the pass. But Week 3’s dominant performance against the Bears, which featured fewer than a handful of Chicago plays run in Seattle territory, was a reminder that this defense is still very talented and very capable of shutting down an offense. Matthew Stafford (FD $7,000, DK $5,700) has been inconsistent and inefficient this season, and isn’t worth the risk on the road against this defense.
Running Game: The Seahawks seem like a tough matchup against the run from a fantasy points allowed perspective, but DVOA ranks them in the middle of the pack so far this year. James Starks did have a nice day as a runner against them and Matt Forte was able to pick up a few yards here and there on the ground, but overall, it’s going to be tough for a back to get yards and a touchdown or two against this defense. It will be especially hard for the Lions, who insist upon using the ineffective Joique Bell (FD $5,500, DK $3,600) in the backfield. If he’s out, Ameer Abdullah (FD $6,100, DK $4,100) and Theo Riddick (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) will get bigger opportunities, but I’ll pass on all three with better options in better matchups available at all three price points.
Pass Catchers: Calvin Johnson (FD $8,100, DK $7,500) and Golden Tate (FD $6,600, DK $5,300) would be the players to target if we were looking to exploit this Seattle pass defense. But we’re not. Eric Ebron (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) holds value as a tight end against a defense that inexplicably struggles to defend the position, having already allowed two scores to tight ends this year, and giving up 85 yards to Jared Cook in Week 1. Ebron is a very sneaky tournament play.
The Takeaway: The Seattle defense is more like the one we saw against the Bears than against the Rams and Packers, and that should prove to be true this weekend against the Lions. Avoid the Detroit offense outside of the most contrarian of tournament plays.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Russell Wilson (FD $8,200, DK $7,100) had a decent game against the Lions’ NFC North rivals from Green Bay, but was disappointing in his other two starts this season. The Lions rank 16th in pass coverage and 19th in pass rush at PFF, which means this is a fairly neutral matchup, and with the Seahawks expected to roll, Wilson won’t have to do that much. I don’t think he’s worth spending on, especially with other solid options at QB this week.
Running Game: Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,600, DK $7,200) is an option if he plays, but given his uncertain status, we may not know ahead of time with this game being played on Monday night. If he can’t go, Thomas Rawls (FD $6,000, DK $3,000) becomes a must-play, even in a mediocre matchup with a Lions defense that is middle of the road against the run. Rawls would get touches at a cheap price in an offense that can use its versatile quarterback to help distract and misdirect defenders to open up running lanes. Rawls ran well against Chicago and was good enough this summer to justify getting rid of dynasty league favorite Christine Michael, so fire him up in all formats if Beast Mode is shut down.
Pass Catchers: Jimmy Graham (FD $6,600, DK $6,000) got his narrative street game after reportedly being unhappy about his role in the offense, as he hauled in a season-high in catches and yards. He won’t be needed that often this week, and isn’t complaining publicly about his workload, so I’ll pass on him and the rest of this passing offense. We learned last week that Doug Baldwin (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) does not have secure volume in this offense, which renders him and the other receivers impossible to roster with confidence.
The Takeaway: If we learn about the healthy of Marshawn Lynch before rosters lock this week, either Beast Mode or Thomas Rawls are fantastic options in what should be an easy win for Seattle. Rawls is worth a shot in tournaments anyways, as Lynch would likely take a seat in a blowout over the Lions, and Rawls would get some run in the second half and maybe sneak by and hit value. Otherwise, there are better situations for this week, and there may not be a “Monday Night hammer” worth rostering in Week 4.