NFL Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 10

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-11-14 06:56:39

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously, we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen. However, we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections by test driving our Premium content — DraftKings 7 Day Free Trial | FanDuel 7 Day Free Trial

Week 9 in Review

Week 9 Hits

The Week 9 projections were an absolute SMASH, checking in with a correlation value of .9577. That’s fantastic. It was nice to have a long list of hits to exclude from the table above. Le’Veon Bell was amongst the group of chalk running backs we predicted accurately. We also were relatively close on Charcandrick West and I felt that was key to the success of the Week 9 projections. Defense has been one of the more difficult positions to nail, and I was very happy to see the mega-chalky Chiefs projected within 1%. Michael Thomas was an important part of your success if you used him Week 9. Hopefully his high projection clued you in to his potential. Dak was in this article last week as the chalk, and actually fell short of that as you’ll see in the next section. He was still highly owned for a QB and we predicted him exactly.

Week 9 Misses

Thankfully we didn’t miss too many projections in Week 9, but the most notable gaps are listed above. Drew Brees was amazingly chalky for a QB. He and Aaron Rodgers accounted for almost 40% of lineups in the DK Millionaire Maker. That is a very rare situation. Antonio Brown was available at an ownership discount below our expectations. It didn’t work out for the 15% or so that took him, but conceptually you have to be happy to see lower ownership on a player of his caliber. We thought more players would pair Dez with Dak. He was short of my projection by quite a bit. Tyrell Williams had some injury issues that may have scared off some takers. We should have weighted that more heavily in our analysis.

Week 10 Analysis

A QUICK NOTE ON OUR OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS: I use both the standalone Ownership Projection Page and the new and improved Player Projections Page to help me write this article and build lineups each week. I create a projection for every player on the slate each week as a part of our premium content, and I highly encourage you to check it out. See below. All kinds of valuable information is now available FOR FREE on the Player Projection page, and if you subscribe to NFL premium, you can also see my “pOWN%” column for that site and sport.

Quarterback

I am currently expecting QB ownership to spread more than usual, but one player I am confident will appear near the top is Marcus Mariota. Mariota is the salary relief players need to more comfortably build David Johnson rosters on both Draftkings and Fanduel. His recent success and high point per dollar projections are propelling him to the top of the Week 10 charts. Most experts seem to agree he is in play vs. the Green Bay defense, and I expect him to be widely rostered in cash games. Vegas has a high total on the game. Thursday lock data points to Mariota as the chalk. Don’t be surprised to see him amongst the highest owned QBs.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

He’s not going to be low owned, but I consider whatever his ownership is to be a value. In his last two games against Pete Carroll’s defense, he has attempted 50 and 58 passes. He threw 4 TDs in the Superbowl. He’s somehow playing some of the best football of his career in an offense that is potentially more dangerous than the 2007 undefeated Patriots team. That could be a hot take, but let me explain. They are a multiple offense. Most offenses have substantial limitations to be conquered by matchups and scheme. The Patriots have built their roster to adapt IN GAME to strategy from their opponent. In this week’s matchup, we should project that the Patriots will scheme to beat Seattle with the passing game. That’s what they’ve successfully deployed in the past, and there is no reason to suspect otherwise. If I can project a massive attempt total for Tom Brady, then I am interested to roster him in tournaments no matter the opponent. Ignore his potentially lofty ownership and fire up the late night hammer.

Running Back

David Johnson will have massive ownership. The 49ers rank dead last in football outsiders DVOA. They have given up 5.48 yards per carry to running backs and 173 rush yards per game. They continue to run the fastest pace in the league and increase their opponents opportunity to run plays and score fantasy points. David Johnson is an elite, versatile, and highly leveraged player in the Arizona offense. There is NO DOUBT that Bruce Arians will feature him in the game plan. Johnson owns all three key roles in the backfield (early down, third down, red-zone) and Vegas is expecting points from the Cardinals. The projection is supported by every content source I consumed this week and Thursday lock data. David Johnson will be one of the highest owned players of the 2016 season.

Darren Sproles has been described by his coach as the lead back in the Eagles offense. He is not priced that way, and will be extremely popular on Draftkings. His salary relief is something owners will crave as they seek to jam in David Johnson and the other higher priced RBs. He’ll also see some ownership on Fanduel for this reason. The vegas total on the game coupled with the Falcons poor DVOA metrics to pass receiving backs has helped propel Sproles upwards in the projections. He’s been widely touted and should be owned at high level across the DFS landscape.

My Favorite RB Ownership Value of the Week

The Eagles defense is highly ranked in DVOA metrics, but the Falcons offense is also one of the most efficient and explosive in the league. With a multitude of other options to consider at the RB position, Freeman will be one of the forgotten studs. His matchup is scary in some ways, but what we have is a player with a high touch floor and an every down role with an ownership projection under 10%. He gets substantial usage in the red zone, and is a major threat for multiple touchdowns anytime he isn’t sharing the load with Tevin Coleman (who isn’t expected to play). He should also see some work out of the backfield in the passing game. With 25.5 points projected for the Falcons, I like Devonta Freeman as a tournament pivot with exceptionally high upside.

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery has a good matchup and price tag in Week 10. He should be extremely high owned as a result. He’ll face off against the Tampa Bay defense that ranks below average in DVOA metrics and has recently been torched by Amari Cooper and Julio Jones. Jeffery isn’t quite the athlete that those two guys are, but he is in theory better than his 2016 year to date performance. His individual matchup with Vernon Hargreaves III is enticing, and the ratio of targets to touchdowns is much lower than I would expect for a player of his stature. He’s due for regression. He’ll be owned over 25% for sure and I am projecting him to hit the mid 30’s.

Mike Evans is on the other side of this game and should make a popular correlation play with Jeffery. His elite target volume is not a closely guarded secret, and recency bias should keep his ownership high despite his rising price. He’ll be higher owned on Fanduel, but even on DK he should see ownership in the mid teens. Thursday lock sites saw him highly owned, and it will not be a surprise to me to see him near the top again when ownership is released this Sunday.

My Favorite WR Ownership Value of the Week

If I think the Patriots are going to score points (I do) then I have to think Seattle will have to do the same in order to stay in the game. With Christine Michael questionable and C.J. Prosise an unknown commodity, I am looking at the Seahawks passing game and Doug Baldwin as a place where the Seahawks will turn for offense. He will see some time in the slot matched up with Logan Ryan, which is a matchup I think Baldwin can win. The combination of target volume and a good individual matchup are enough to intrigue me when the price is right. Baldwin has some other players near him in price that should attract attention and keep his ownership relatively low. We have video footage of Baldwin scoring against the Patriots in Superbowl 49, after which he proceeded to get flagged for his bathroom related celebration. I think Baldwin has a fine chance to repeat that performance, and use the Patriots proverbial bathroom once again in Week 10.

Tight End

Gronk is a monster. He is not like you and I. If we were on the football field, we might think the Cornerbacks were pretty big dudes. Gronk is like a guard who can run a 4.6 40. It’s hilarious to me every time I see him trucking down the field shedding tackles along the way. He’s a bad man. I’m not the only one who has this opinion unfortunately, and we can expect the love from the public and expert community alike to vault his ownership into double digits. There are certainly a ton of anecdotal reasons I could share for his projection being this high, but I’d much rather link you to a gif of him celebrating.

I’m not so sure about the degree of Antonio Gates chalkiness in Week 10, but last week he came through at 33% ownership. This week he’ll be lower owned in part due to the return of Hunter Henry. At $3,900, we’ll still see plenty of ownership for Gates. I am leaning heavily on expert consensus and Thursday lock data for this call. I do not personally love the idea of rostering Gates this week, particularly if he’s chalky. However, I have to call it like I see it. Right now, I see my projection around the 10% range as conservative. He’s the type of play that could be higher than I think.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of the Week

This is another play that could end up higher than projected, but I don’t think he’ll come close to the ownership of Alshon Jeffery. I therefore like Miller in a similar spot to Jeffery as sensible leverage on the chalk. He has seen ample opportunity in the red zone, and enough work between the 20’s where he could keep pace with other high performing TEs. With the Tampa Bay pass defense being so bad, there is even some upside for him to be the highest scoring TE of the week if he can find the end zone more than once. His price tag is certainly affordable on both sites. For this reason, I will speculate on this play in my Week 10 portfolio.

Defense

The Cardinals are in a great spot where they should be tasked to defend the lowly 49ers with a lead. The Cardinals rank well in DVOA metrics, and their price point is potentially palatable with the value plays available on this week’s slate. The DFS tout community has essentially jammed this play down everybody’s gullet throughout the course of the week, and there is no doubt the message will resonate when it comes time to build lineups. It makes sense for users to pair their running back with a defense, and since David Johnson will be the chalk we can expect the ownership of the Cardinals D to follow suit. They should break the 20% mark in ownership as many of the chalk defenses have this season.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of the Week

I haven’t heard anybody talk about the Rams this week, and I get that. They haven’t produced for us at all this season and it’s hard to trust them. I do have some concern for the Jets offense though, and that makes me think the Rams are worth speculation in GPPs. The most troubling tidbit is the absence of Nick Mangold. Many football fans know all the best skill players in the league, but fewer could tell you who the best interior lineman is. That designation in my eyes belongs to Aaron Donald of the St. Louis Rams. He’ll line up in a reduced front against a backup center and put intense pressure on either Ryan Fitzpatrick or Bryce Petty (they split reps this week). We all know what Fitzpatrick is capable of from a turnover standpoint, and we can’t think much of a QB who didn’t easily surpass Geno Smith on the depth chart either. For me, this is a sneaky spot for a tournament flyer defense.