NHL Grind Down: Monday, November 7th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins
| Buffalo Sabres | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 5-4-2 | 6-5-0 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.27 | 2.18 | 22.20% | 82.80% | Team Stats | 2.27 | 2.91 | 7.90% | 83.30% |
Buffalo bounced back from a disappointing 2-1 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs with a 2-1 victory of their own over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday. They’ve now won four of their last five games and pushed their record to a respectable 5-4-2 mark on the season. With Evander Kane and Jack Eichel both still out of action due to injuries, the weight of the offense has landed firmly on the top line featuring Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo (and Matt Moulson). Both Okposo and O’Reilly lead the team with eight points on the season and all three members also have the luxury of seeing plenty of playing time on the #1 power-play unit. They’re almost assured to see a heavy dose of the pestering defense of both Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, but on a three game slate, you may just have to look past the tough matchup tonight. Alternatively, Sam Reinhart has tallied points in back-to-back games and centers Zemgus Girgensons and Tyler Ennis on the second line. The former second overall draft pick also joins O’Reilly and Okposo on the top power-play unit and remains very reasonably priced across the industry. On the blue-line, Rasmus Ristolainen has emerged as terrific option on a nightly basis. He sits tied with Okposo and O’Reilly with eight points on the young season and runs the point of the #1 power-play unit. He’s routinely logging north of 25 minutes of ice-time per game and his shot blocking ability gives him the high floor your looking for in cash games.
I’ts been an up-and-down season for the Boston Bruins thus far, and despite outshooting the Rangers 37-24 on Saturday, they were easily dismissed in a 5-2 blowout to fall to 6-5-0 through eleven games. With a date against the bitter rival Montreal Canadiens awaiting them tomorrow, Claude Julien will really need to make sure his team stays focused tonight and does not overlook this very capable Buffalo Sabres team. While this does look like a fine opportunity to fire up some Boston players (particularly on such a small slate), I’ll preface this all by stating that Buffalo is not the same team they’ve been for the past 4-5 years and has played very soundly in their own end this season. They’ve allowed just 2.18 goals against per game and their 104.4 CP60 signifies that they’re content with slowing things down and looking to grind their way to two points. With that said, the trio of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak will still likely be very popular selections this evening. Marchand has shot out of the gates with four goals and nine assists in 11 games this season while Pastrnak trails just behind with ten points of his own (seven goals and three assists). Bergeron hasn’t put up huge numbers thus far, but he does finally look to be back to full health (or as close to it as he’ll get) and did score a goal and unload seven shots on goal in that loss to the New York Rangers. After missing two weeks of action with an elbow injury, David Backes returned to the lineup over the weekend and joins forces with David Krejci to provide the Bruins with a dangerous secondary scoring line. On defense, the Bruins haven’t seen much offensive production yet this season. With that said, Torey Krug did finally pick up an assist for his first point of the season last Thursday and has looked a bit more aggressive lately (13 SOG in their last three games). He quarterbacks their #1 power-play unit and his early season slump has suppressed his asking price.
Buffalo Sabres
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 48.57 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 1, 104.4 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan O’Reilly ($5,800 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.49 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 101.89 PDO
Rasmus Ristolainen ($4,800 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.18 CF60, 2.94 xGF60, 101.28 PDO
Secondary Options
Kyle Okposo ($6,100 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.5 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 106.58 PDO
Sam Reinhart ($5,000 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.12 CF60, 3.33 xGF60, 100.85 PDO
Expected Netminder
Robin Lehner – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 53.33 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -2, 111.34 CP60
Elite Options
Brad Marchand ($6,700 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 71.48 CF60, 3.37 xGF60, 105.35 PDO
Patrice Bergeron ($6,400 FD, $6,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.05 CF60, 2.27 xGF60, 101.7 PDO
Secondary Options
David Pastrnak ($5,300 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 73.96 CF60, 3.73 xGF60, 108.56 PDO
David Krejci ($5,100 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.32 CF60, 2.35 xGF60, 91.26 PDO
Torey Krug ($5,300 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.57 CF60, 2.33 xGF60, 95.2 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 8 GPP
Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders
| Vancouver Canucks | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Ryan Miller |  | Thomas Greiss | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 4-7-1 | 4-6-2 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 1.58 | 2.75 | 7.70% | 84.80% | Team Stats | 2.75 | 3.00 | 11.40% | 78.30% |
After a 4-0 start to the season, the Canucks have been in a free-fall ever since and have now dropped eight straight games. They’ve been shutout in four of their last six outing and have scored an NHL low 1.58 goals per game this season. They are not a team you want to target often in DFS hockey, but on such a small slate, you may not have a choice this evening. Luckily, they really only have two lines that generate any offense at all, so breaking them down is pretty straight forward. The Sedin twins are well past their prime at this point, but are definitely still capable in the offensive end. They’re slated to be joined by Jannik Hansen on the top forward line and, with Frans Nielsen departed, the Islanders don’t really have the “shut down” defender to effectively shadow them this evening. Alternatively, Brandon Sutter leads Loui Eriksson and Markus Granlund on a second forward line that at least looks dangerous on paper. Sutter also sees playing time alongside the Sedins on that #1 power-play unit and the former first round pick does have two 20-goal seasons on his resume. On defense it’s been a fantasy wasteland in Vancouver for several years.
The Islanders will hit the ice as the biggest favorites on the board this evening and therefore will likely be rather popular selections. With that said, they’ve now dropped three straight games and really need to pick up two points this evening as their schedule takes a very ugly over the next 3-4 weeks. John Tavares is the headliner here and looks to be one of the top plays of the evening. He’s scored five goals and added five assists over the first 12 games and is slated to center Josh Bailey and Cal Clutterbuck on the Islander’s top forward line. Brock Nelson and Andrew Ladd join Tavares (and Bailey) up-front on the top power-play unit which gives them plenty of appeal in this matchup as well. Nelson has cooled off a bit lately, but has topped 40 points in each of the last two seasons and owns three goals and six assists in 12 games this season. Nick Leddy is the top option on the blue-line. He facilitates things from the point of the #1 power-play unit and should see a very heavy workload this morning with Travis Hamonic out of action with a thumb injury. Hamonick’s injury also means more minutes for Johnny Boychuk and he’s shown plenty of offensive upside when given the opportunities. Dennis Seidenberg should also find himself locked into 20+ minutes this evening and he’s been red-hot lately; posting two goals and four assists during his current four game point streak.
Vancouver Canucks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.5 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -7, 106.14 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Daniel Sedin ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.79 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 99.78 PDO
Henrik Sedin ($4,500 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.53 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 99.63 PDO
Brandon Sutter ($4,200 FD, $4,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.84 CF60, 3 xGF60, 99.07 PDO
Expected Netminder
Ryan Miller – My Ratings (out of 10): 4.5 Cash, 5.5 GPP
New York Islanders
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 46.49 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 3, 118.22 CP60
Elite Options
John Tavares ($7,600 FD, $7,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.06 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 100.47 PDO
Nick Leddy ($4,800 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.4 CF60, 2.22 xGF60, 96.8 PDO
Secondary Options
Brock Nelson ($5,100 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.97 CF60, 2.78 xGF60, 104.96 PDO
Josh Bailey ($4,100 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.2 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 103.11 PDO
Dennis Seidenberg ($4,200 FD, $3,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.78 CF60, 2.2 xGF60, 107.62 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jaroslav Halak – My Ratings (out of 10): 9 Cash, 8 GPP
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Roberto Luongo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 7-4-1 | 5-6-1 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.25 | 2.83 | 26.50% | 89.50% | Team Stats | 2.67 | 2.58 | 17.80% | 80.00% |
Tampa Bay will make the short trip down I-75 to battle their cross-state rival the Florida Panthers this evening. The Lightning has struggled to gain much traction thus far this season, but are still widely considered one of the bigger Stanley Cup favorites in the NHL this season. Facing the Panthers is definitely not an ideal matchup, but Tampa did skate away with a 4-3 overtime victory when these teams met earlier this season and they just have too much offensive firepower to ignore on a three game slate. Breaking down the Lightning has to start with the dynamic top line consisting of Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov leads the team with 15 points (four goals and 11 assists) with Stamkos on his heals with seven goals and seven assists in 12 games. With the Panthers likely focusing their attention on slowing down that group, Tyler Johnson could see a bit more open ice as the center of the second forward line. Johnson showed off his offensive upside with a pair of goals last Thursday against the Bruins and his speed will cause matchup problems for the Panthers all evening. He also joins Stamkos on the #1 power-play unit and figures to be overlooked tonight in comparison to his teammates on the top forward line. Victor Hedman has established himself as one of the best fantasy blue-liners in the league at this point and he’s off to another fine start with three goals and seven assists in the first 12 games. Meanwhile, Anton Stralman is more reasonably priced on most sites and is a fine option as well. He’s dished out six assists already this season and plays alongside Stamkos on the point of Tampa’s #1 power-play unit.
After winning the Atlantic Division last season, the Panthers will take the ice tonight sitting in last place with a 5-6-1 record. They’re generally content with slowing down the pace of the game (104.09 CP60) and simply looking to capitalize on their opponents mistakes. Offensively, some key injuries have really thinned out Florida’s forward depth. Aleksander Barkov headlines a very dangerous top line alongside the ageless Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Marchessault. Marchessault actually leads the Panthers with six goals and six assists in 12 games this season and has the extra motivation of facing his former team in this matchup. Meanwhile, Vincent Trocheck is fresh off a career best 53 point season in 2015-16 and has caught fire recently, scoring three goals and adding two assists in the last four games. He sees a healthy dose of playing time on the #2 power-play unit and tends to be overlooked on most nights which gives him significant GPP appeal. On defense, Florida has two very strong options in Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad. Both players approach 25 minutes of ice-time on a nightly basis and share the duties on the point of the top power-play unit. Tampa’s tremendous 89.5% penalty kill is a bit of a buzz kill, but both defensemen are still well worth consideration.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.5 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -5, 110.15 CP60
Elite Options
Steven Stamkos ($8,300 FD, $8,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.61 CF60, 3.07 xGF60, 98.46 PDO
Nikita Kucherov ($7,200 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.44 CF60, 2.86 xGF60, 105.13 PDO
Victor Hedman ($6,500 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.63 CF60, 2.8 xGF60, 103.98 PDO
Secondary Options
Ondrej Palat ($4,900 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.52 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 92.77 PDO
Tyler Johnson ($5,600 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.77 CF60, 1.99 xGF60, 93.36 PDO
Anton Stralman ($3,900 FD, $4,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.11 CF60, 2.99 xGF60, 102.53 PDO
Expected Netminder
Ben Bishop – My Ratings (out of 10): 8 Cash, 8 GPP
Florida Panthers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 52.99 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -2, 104.09 CP60
Elite Options
Aleksander Barkov ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.62 CF60, 1.92 xGF60, 98.93 PDO
Jonathan Marchessault ($5,100 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.55 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 102.87 PDO
Secondary Options
Jaromir Jagr ($5,000 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.73 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 100.42 PDO
Vincent Trocheck ($6,200 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.08 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 96.21 PDO
Aaron Ekblad ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.09 CF60, 2.03 xGF60, 93.19 PDO
Keith Yandle ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.51 CF60, 2.17 xGF60, 98.95 PDO
Expected Netminder
Roberto Luongo – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 8 GPP