NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 23rd
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders – 07:00 PM EDT
| Ottawa Senators | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Craig Anderson |  | Thomas Greiss | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 34-31-8 | 38-24-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.81 | 2.97 | 16.30% | 75.40% | Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.48 | 19.10% | 85.40% |
The Senators came up short in Washington last night, dropping a close 4-2 decision to the Capitals. They’ve now posted just a 4-5-2 record in eleven games this month and are just counting the days until they can hit the golf course at this point. They won’t have much time to recover from their loss as they’ll head to Brooklyn tonight to square off against the Islanders at the Barclays Center. As always, breaking down this Senators squad from a fantasy perspective has to start with Erik Karlsson. The blue-liner sits fourth in the entire league in scoring with 74 points in 74 games and has torched this Islanders team for two goals and three assists in their two previous meetings this season. While the Senators won’t be receiving any accolades for its team defense this season, Dave Cameron does have two dangerous forward lines to throw over the boards tonight. The trio of Mark Stone, Zack Smith and Jean-Gabriel Pageau have putting up huge numbers lately. While they’re likely set for a full dose of Frans Nielsen pestering defense, they’ve combined for a ridiculous 29 goals, 37 assists and plus 33 in 24 games since the All-Star break. While they’re clearly the most dangerous grouping right now, Mike Hoffman is arguably the most offensively gifted forward on this team and he’s starting heat up also. Hoffman handed out a pair of assists in last night’s game and now owns a goal and six assists during his current five game point streak. He’ll be joined by Mika Zibanejad on the second line while also seeing plenty of playing time with the man-advantage.
The Islanders dropped a 4-1 decision to the surging Philadelphia Flyers on Monday night and, after losing six of their last seven games, it’s starting to be panic time in Brooklyn as their now barely hanging on to a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. With just eleven games left on their regular season schedule and a very tough finish ahead, securing two points against the visiting Senators is starting to look like a “must”. These two teams have split their first two meetings this season, but New York does catch a bit of a break tonight as the Senators were in action last night against Washington. While their recent struggles are slightly concerning, the Senators have allowed an NHL worst 3.50 goals against per game on the road, so the Islanders will likely be targeted heavily on such a short slate. John Tavares and Kyle Okposo sit tied atop the team leaderboard with 56 points. While Jack Capuano may no longer use them together on the top line, they’re both still fine options in all formats tonight. Tavares has not only produced at a point-per-game clip at the Barclays Center but has also already tallied a goal and an assist in the two prior meetings against the Senators this season. He’s now slated to be joined by Brock Nelson and Ryan Strome on the top line, leaving Okposo to skate alongside the under-rated Frans Nielsen and Josh Bailey on a very impressive secondary scoring line. Okposo netted his 20th goal of the season Monday against Philly and has now posted five goals and five assists in ten games this month. On defense, both Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuck will be eager to get a crack at the Senators league worst 75.4% penalty kill. Leddy has been held off the scoresheet in each of the last six games, but the former first-round pick is still in the midst of a fine season that has him sitting just one point shy of his career high (37).
Ottawa Senators
CF%: 47.5, CP60: 111.9, 5×5 Differential: -3
Elite Options: Mark Stone, Zach Smith, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Options: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mika Zibanejad, Mike Hoffman, Dion Phaneuf
New York Islanders
CF%: 49.9, CP60: 112.1, 5×5 Differential: 8
Elite Options: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Nick Leddy
Secondary Options: Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuck
Boston Bruins at New York Rangers – 08:00 PM EDT
| Boston Bruins | New York Rangers | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Henrik Lundqvist | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 39-26-8 | 41-24-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.90 | 2.68 | 20.90% | 82.30% | Team Stats | 2.79 | 2.60 | 18.40% | 76.90% |
Much like the Islanders, the Boston Bruins suddenly find themselves on much shakier ground than they were just a week or two ago. Claude Julien’s squad has dropped three straight games and will look to salvage a four game road trip against the rival New York Rangers. The Bruins are suddenly looking at the real possibility of missing the Stanley Cup playoffs if they can’t get things turned around quickly and with five of their next six games away from Bean Town, it’s important for them to stop the bleeding tonight. The Bruins are armed with two very dangerous forward lines, but considering the fact that New York has posted an NHL worst 70.5% penalty kill during the second half of the season, it’s their power-play that will draw most of my attention. Patrice Bergeron has tallied 23 of his team leading 61 points as the center of the Bruins’ top power-play unit and is a fine fantasy option tonight despite a four game scoring drought. Bergeron has scored a goal and added an assist in the two prior meetings against the Rangers and will be joined by the trio of Loui Eriksson, Ryan Spooner and David Krejci up-front on the #1 power-play unit. This leaves 34-goal scorer Brad Marchand to lead Matt Beleskey and David Pastrnak on the second unit. On defense, Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara and John-Michael Liles soak up nearly all of the available playing time on the point with the man-advantage. Krug has racked up 11 assists in his last 15 games and his 1.4% shooting percentage is not only unsustainably low, but easily the lowest in the entire NHL among players with at least 100 SOG.
With the Bruins reeling a bit, the New York Rangers will be more than happy to prolong the suffering of their Original Six rival. The Rangers broke out of a small funk of their own with a win over Florida on Monday and should be motivated to keep things headed in the right direction as the suddenly surging Pittsburgh Penguins are now nipping at their heels to potentially steal home-ice advantage away in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Rangers have posted an impressive 24-8-3 record at Madison Square Garden this season, making them fine targets on a two game slate. While Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand loom as a very tough matchup, it’s tough to pinpoint how Claude Julien will deploy them as the Rangers have three very capable scoring lines. Mats Zuccarello still holds the team lead with 54 points in 73 games and has thrived on home-ice, where he’s tallied 15 goals, 18 assists and a plus 10 in 35 games at MSG. He’ll be joined by Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider on one line while Derick Brassard leads Rick Nash and Jesper Fast on another. Rick Nash finally found the back of the net for the first time in 2016 on Monday night and his explosiveness makes him a very nice GPP target. On defense, both Ryan McDonagh and Keith Yandle remain the top options and handle the majority of the power-play duties. However, Kevin Klein has turned things on offensively lately with two goals and four assists in his last five games and has already dished out a pair of assists in the two prior meetings with Boston this season.
Boston Bruins
CF%: 48.5, CP60: 110.7, 5×5 Differential: 9
Elite Options: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Torey Krug
Secondary Options: Loui Eriksson, Lee Stempniak, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara
New York Rangers
CF%: 47.3, CP60: 107.6, 5×5 Differential: 33
Elite Options: Mats Zuccerello, Derick Brassard, Keith Yandle
Secondary Options: Derek Stepan, Rick Nash, J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein