NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, October 28th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
NOTE: Posted W/L records are from last season.
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Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators – 07:30 PM EDT
| Calgary Flames | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Jonas Hiller |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 45-30 | 43-26 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.89 | 2.60 | 18.80% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 2.83 | 2.54 | 16.80% | 82.90% |
After a lifeless effort against the Islanders on Monday night, the Flames have now dropped six of their last seven games and some sense of panic is starting to be felt throughout Alberta. The team is undoubtedly talented, but despite pushing into the second round of the Western Conference playoffs last season, they simply can’t afford to fall too far behind early in the season. Things wont be easy for them tonight as they set wrap up their three game road trip in Ottawa tonight before hosting the unbeaten Montreal Canadians on Friday night. Despite their early season struggles, their top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Jiri Hudler has picked up where it left off last season as an offensive force. The problem? Outside of that line, they’ve only gotten six combined goals from the forwards on the other three lines. With that in mind, it doesn’t seem necessary to focus much of your fantasy attention elsewhere from this offense. On the blue-line, Mark GIordano, Dennis Wideman and Dougie Hamilton are all very capable in the offensive end and see prominent roles with the man advantage, making each of them fine plays (with Giordano my favorite). In net, it’s been a disastrous start to the 2015-16 season for the Flames goaltenders. All three have struggled mightily (combined 3.76 GAA and .878 SV%) and they’ve already essentially given up on Karri Ramo, so just stay away from this hot mess for the timing being.
A promising start to the season for the Senators has flipped upside down lately as they’ve now lost four straight games and failed to take advantage of very favorable matchups against the Devils and Coyotes in their last two outings. However, I expect them to get back on the right track in this one. Calgary will likely eventually turn things around themselves, but several factors indicate that they’re a team you want to pick on right now: 1) They’ve allowed 3.89 goals per game this season (3rd worst in the NHL), 2) They’ve struggled with puck possession and their 48.2 CF% is ranked 26th in the league, and 3) They’ve been the worst team in the league in 5on5 situations this season (-18 goal differential). The Senators have rode their top two forward lines for the vast majority of their offense in the early going this season, and there’s little reason to expect things to be different tonight. Kyle Turris and Mark Stone have both followed up terrific second-half’s of the 2014-15 season with a combined six goals and 11 assists through the first eight games this year. They’re still reasonably priced across the industry and my top options in this matchup even with their linemate Matt Hoffman out of commision, but don’t sleep on Mika Zibanejad and Bobby Ryan on the second line. Erik Karlsson remains the most dangerous fantasy defenseman in the league and pays off his big-ticket asking price more often than not; I love him in this matchup.
Elite Plays
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano
OTT: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Play
CGY: Dennis Wideman, Dougie Hamilton
OTT: Mika Zibanejad, Alex Chiasson, Cody Ceci, Craig Anderson
Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals – 08:00 PM EDT
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Marc-Andre Fleury |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-27 | 45-26 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.49 | 19.30% | 84.80% | Team Stats | 2.89 | 2.43 | 25.30% | 81.20% |
It’s always fun when these two teams get together, and after an 0-3-0 start to the season, the Penguins look ready for the challenge after winning four of their last five games. The Capitals took three of the four meetings between these teams last season (and in convincing fashion for the most part), but it’s never smart to ignore the firepower littered throughout this Penguins lineup. It’s been an odd start for the Penguins, but considering that Sidney Crosby has been held pointless in seven of their eight games thus far, they’re probably pretty content with their 4-4-0 record. We know Crosby won’t stay quiet for long and few teams in the NHL can make an argument that they have two more dangerous scoring lines than Pittsburgh. It looks like we’ll see a line shakeup with Pascal Dupuis returning to the lineup and likely getting some run with Sidney Crosby and Patric Hornqvist on the top line. That leaves Evgeni Malkin to center Phil Kessel and the underrated David Peron on the second unit (and leaves Chris Kunitz on the outside looking in). Looking outside of these top two lines for offensive production just seems unnecessary. Kris Letang is an elite fantasy defenseman, and while the matchup isn’t necessarily ideal, he’s still well worth consideration. Olli Maatta has shown flashes of offensive upside in the past and sees a healthy dose of playing time on the point of the #2 power-play unit, making him a fine value option.
The Capitals put up a “Seven” spot on the Oilers in their last outing and have now averaged 4.80 goals per game over their current five game winning streak. While Nicklas Backstrom may no longer find himself playing alongside Alexander Ovechkin on the top line, we clearly haven’t seen any negative fallout in the Capitals offensive production. Evgeny Kuznetsov has, at least temporarily, inherited Backstrom’s old role as the top line center; and with three goals and six assists over the last three games (3 goals and eight assists on the season), he certainly doesn’t look eager see things changed. The newly acquired T.J. Oshie occupies the third spot on that top line and he’s also been clicking at a point-per-game pace to start the season. Backstrom, along with Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams, now at least gives Barry Trotz a nice source for some secondary scoring. For the Penguins to get two points tonight, they flat out MUST stay out of the penalty box. Pittsburgh was the most penalized team in the league last season and this Capitals teamed owned the league’s most lethal power-play. Marcus Johansson and Nicklas Backstrom share the ice with Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie on the #1 power-play unit, making both of them fine targets tonight as well. On the blue-line, John Carlson has already scored a pair of goals and added eight assists on the young season and is an elite option on the blue-line as the quarterback of that top power-play unit.
Elite Plays
PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang
WSH: Alexander Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson
Secondary Play
PIT: David Perron, Patric Hornqvist, Pascal Dupuis, Olli Maatta
WSH: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen
Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks – 10:30 PM EDT
| Nashville Predators | San Jose Sharks | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Martin Jones | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 47-25 | 40-33 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.46 | 16.20% | 80.80% | Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.76 | 21.60% | 78.50% |
The Predators were handed just their second loss of the season on Saturday as they dropped a 2-1 decision in overtime to Pittsburgh on Saturday, but they’ll certainly be tested in the coming weeks as they head off on four game west coast road trip. San Jose took two of the three meetings between these teams last season and it’s only worth mentioning since both San Jose wins came via shutout. Traditionally known as a tough defensive team (and I still think they are), the Predators have really found their offensive groove lately. James Neal has led the charge thus far as the veteran sniper has scored six goals and added three assists through the first eight games. He’s joined by Mike Fisher and the very talented Filip Forsberg to create a menacing top offensive forward line for Peter Laviolette. With San Jose undoubtedly focusing their attention on the top line, the second line of Colin Wilson, Mike Ribeiro and Craig Smith should find some room to work with and life should be easier for all six players with Logan Couture in the press box. The Sharks posted an ugly 78.5% penalty kill last season, so getting some exposure to this Predators power-play seems prudent. With that in mind, all of the previously mentioned forwards see a nice fantasy boast and Roman Josi, Shea Weber and Seth Jones all make for terrific defensive targets despite the tough matchup in the Sharktank.
The Sharks finally broke out of a three game losing streak by defeating the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday, and will enter tonight’s game with a fine 5-3-0 record to begin the season. The loss of Logan Couture is a crushing blow for this team but they’re hoping they still have enough firepower up front to keep them afloat until he returns. Even without Couture, the Sharks still have two strong scoring lines to work with. Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton (with Matthew Nieto) are the main threat with veteran Patrick Marleau teaming up with Joel Ward and Tomas Hertl to create a very capable second line (Ward has a hat trick in their last game and now has five goals over the past four games). The Predators are never an easy matchup, but it’s simply too hard to ignore San Jose playing on home ice on such a short slate. While their power-play has really struggled to start the season (scoreless in the last five games), their #1 power-play unit is simply too talented to be held down for long. The “Big Three” hold down the fort up-front with the very offensively talented Brent Burns running things from the point. With 35 shots on goal already this season, Brent Burns leads all NHL defenseman and can pay off some of his hefty price-tag on shot volume alone.
Elite Plays
NSH: James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Shea Weber, Roman Josi
SAN: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Brent Burns
Secondary Plays
NSH: Mike Fisher, Mike Ribeiro, Craig Smith, Seth Jones
SAN: Patrick Marleau, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl