Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 17
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
With a bunch of playoff teams (Cowboys, Steelers, Texans, Giants) with nothing to play for in Week 17, you want to make sure you’re using your high-salary spots on players who can be trusted to play the entire game.
Most of the stacks below focus on these players, but I also one stack you can use to exploit a team that will be resting is starters as well. When looking for cheaper players to fill in the holes, I especially like to target young and/or fast players at the receiver position at this time of year. Young receivers tend to get their longest looks in Week 17, especially when their teams have nothing to play for, while fast receivers can take advantage of the unmotivated and banged up nature of many of the league’s defenses in the last game of the season.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Jordy Nelson + WR Davante Adams + WR Golden Tate
The Packers and Lions will either be playing an elimination game or to decide who gets a home game in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Either way, both teams will be playing hard and it should be a good game to target. The Lions have comically allowed a 72.9% completion rate, 5.4% higher than any other defense in the league and currently on pace to break the record for worst of all-time, set by the 2011 Colts (71.2%). Not much needs to be said about Rodgers and Nelson, who lead their respective positions in fantasy PPG over the past 10 weeks, but Adams ranks seventh among WRs in PPG over that same span. Only three players have more TD catches than Adams (10) this season, and only eight have more red zone targets (18).
As we saw in Week 3 when these two teams met, the Packers’ offensive firepower can cause opponents to become aggressive themselves, creating a positive correlation. This holds true for Tate as well, who is averaging 6.75 receptions this season when the Lions are underdogs, compared to just 4.43 when the are favorites. Tate has drawn double-digit targets in six of his last 10 games and the Packers are ranked 30th in strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed.
QB Matt Ryan + RB Devonta Freeman
QB-RB stacks tend to work best when a team is at home as a sizeable favorite with a high implied total. Enter the Atlanta Falcons, who as of this writing are seven-point home favorites with an implied total of 31.75 against the Saints in a game with this season’s highest over/under (56.5). Stacking Ryan and Freeman allow you to potentially gain access to every TD the Falcons score (you have to be prepared for Tevin Coleman tilt, of course).
Ryan is third in fantasy points per game among QBs, and will face a defense that is tied for the most 300-yard passing games allowed (7). Freeman is third among RBs in red zone touches (58). Freeman is also tied for first among RBs and tied for 13th among all positions with 16 red zone targets, so it’s conceivable he could catch a TD from Ryan as well. The Saints are ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA and 20th in run defense DVOA.
QB Landry Jones + RB DeAngelo WIlliams + WR Eli Rogers
For a minimal cost, you gain access to the QB, RB, and top WR on a team that will face the NFL’s second-worst defense in terms of DVOA, TDs allowed (50), and points per game allowed (28.3). Landry Jones is bad at quarterbacking, but he’ll be facing a defense that has allowed multiple TDs in 80% of their games and ranks 27th in QB aFPA. Since Le’Veon Bell’s Week 4 return, he and Antonio Brown have been responsible for 17.3 targets per game. Rogers, who is coming off two straight games of 75+ yards, is likely to operate as the team’s top receiver out of the slot. The Browns have been getting shredded short and over the middle all season — they are ranked 29th and 30th in pass defense DVOA over the middle and on short passes, respectively.
DeAngelo Williams averages 112.9 total yards per game and 1.08 TDs per game in games Le’Veon Bell has missed. Now off the injury report, Williams figures to get a tune-up next week. The Browns are allowing an average of 28.8 DraftKings points and 25.5 FanDuel points to RBs, so Williams could conceivably hit value even if he splits work with Fitzgerald Toussaint.
RB David Johnson + D/ST Cardinals
Johnson has a chance to become to first player ever to eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage in all 16 games. Even with the Cardinals eliminated from playoff contention last week, Johnson was on the field for all but one snap. He’s been held under 24 FanDuel points and 26 DraftKings points just once in his last seven games. Pairing Johnson with the Cardinals D/ST allows you to pair the slate’s highest scoring RB with the D/ST going against the team allowing the most strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. The Cardinals defense has played well of late, with 10 sacks, 5 turnovers, and a TD over its last three games. It’s only problem over that span has been points allowed (45.0), but that will not be an issue against the Rams, who average a league-low 14.5 — 1.5 fewer than the hapless Browns.
K Kai Forbath + D/ST Minnesota Vikings
Kickers and D/STs both tend to be most productive as home favorites, and the Vikings are 5.5-point home favorites against the Bears in Minnesota this weekend. Forbath is one of 10 kickers to average 9+ PPg this season, but he’s $200 cheaper than any of the others. The Bears are ranked 24th in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers. The Bears are also ranked 24th versus D/STs, while the Vikings are ranked third in PPG at the position. Bears QB Matt Barkley has thrown 12 picks and fumbled three times in six appearances this season.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Patriots Tendency to Run When In Close & Their Limiting of Julian Edelman’s Snap Count
Since Week 5 when Tom Brady returned from suspension, only five teams have run the ball on a higher percentage of their plays in the red zone on first or second down than the Patriots (61.6%). The Dolphins have allowed 5.56 yards per carry to RBs over the past six weeks, so this sets up well for LeGarrette Blount, who is second in the league with 17 total TDs.
Meanwhile, Julian Edelman’s snap percentages have fallen for 69% to 58% to 48% over the last three weeks, and his targets over that span have decreased from 15 to 12 to 8. It looks like the Patriots are making an effort to preserve his health with an eye towards the playoffs. He’s still getting enough targets to be productive, but at his price tag, you don’t want a receiver with a capped ceiling. Edelman is a fade for me this week.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Charles Sims’ Pectoral Injury
With Sims on IR and Doug Martin suspended, the Bucs’ backfield situation is similar to Week 5 against Carolina, when both Martin and Sims were out as well. In that game, Jacquizz Rodgers played 93% of the snaps and handled 35 touches. Even if Rodgers handles something in between that and last week’s 17 touches on 61% of the snaps, he should pay off as a home favorite RB against a Panthers defense ranked 23rd in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.