RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 11
Chiefs at Giants
Vegas-Implied Total: Chiefs 27.75, Giants 17.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Giants Run D – 27th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O – 5th DVOA / 3rd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D – 29th DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chiefs Pass O – 3rd DVOA / 2nd Yards per pass attempt
Chiefs Run D – 32nd DVOA / 31st Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O – 21st DVOA / 18th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D – 22nd DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Giants Pass O – 16th DVOA / 29th Yards per pass attempt
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The Chiefs’ side of the ball is smooth and easy to break down, as the Chiefs have three main guys their offense runs through – and all three guys are set up to smash in this spot.
We’ll start in the backfield, with Kareem Hunt – who has two games this year with only nine carries, but the link between those games was that they were both losses. Because the Chiefs are big favorites in this game, we can expect that Hunt will not see one of his outlier “low-carry” games, and will instead see something more in the range of the 18 to 32 touches he has in all but one other game this year. Before the nine-carry (13-touch) dud against the Cowboys, Hunt had touched the ball at least 22 times in four of five games. Against a Giants defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards in the NFL to running backs, Hunt is the top play among the high-priced guys. He’s an excellent option in both cash and tourneys.
The second piece is Travis Kelce, who is taking on a Giants defense whose problems against tight ends have been well-documented in this space. The Giants are the first team in history to allow a touchdown to a tight end in each of the first nine games of a season. The Giants have allowed the third-most yards and the most touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends; Kelce has the most yards and the third-most touchdowns among all NFL tight ends. Kelce also has seven or more targets in all but two games this year. Rob Gronkowski is actually a slightly better play (in terms of expectations), which we’ll get to in a bit. But I am strongly in favor of playing both guys on DraftKings if you want, and each guy is a strong play on FanDuel.
Finally – the least exciting guy of the bunch – Tyreek Hill. I say “least exciting” because Hill is the kind of guy you “guess on” rather than “analyze.” He has seen six to eight targets in every game this year but one. He gets one or two deep shots each game, and five or six balls close to the line of scrimmage. If he catches one of those deep shots or breaks one of his short catches for a long gain, he turns into a great play. If he gets tackled quickly on all of his short catches, he turns in a dud. This sloppy and apathetic Giants defense is a good bet to miss a tackle on Hill or fail to contain him on a deep shot – making this a good week for him to hit. And his price is so absurdly high on each site for a guy who never sees more than eight targets, ownership should be low. There is a risk that this is a blowout, and that Hill’s volume suffers. But there is also a chance he puts up 25+ points at low ownership.
The Giants also flow through a narrow band of players at this point – making this one of my favorite games on the slate to target, on both sides of the ball.
Orleans Darkwa has firmly taken hold of the Giants’ backfield, with 16+ touches in three of the Giants’ last four games. Last week, he touched the ball 16 times with all four running backs healthy (Paul Perkins was stuck on special teams). He has also averaged two catches per game over the Giants’ last four. There is risk that Darkwa’s touches fall short as the Chiefs build their lead – but the Chiefs are bad enough on defense this year that the Giants should be able to keep the game close for a while, especially with this game being at home. I like Darkwa as a salary saver.
Sterling Shepard might not be the most underpriced play on the slate this week…but he’s definitely still one of the most underpriced plays.
The Chiefs have allowed the 11th-most receptions to wide receivers…but they have allowed the third-most yards, and the most touchdowns. Only four teams have scored more points than the Chiefs this year, and only four teams have allowed more points than the Giants. On top of that, Andy Reid is famously masterful coming off a bye – so it is practically a lock that the Chiefs will put up points. As this happens, the Giants will stick to their current setup – in which they rank second in the NFL in passing play percentage. And this means volume for Shepard – who has seen nine and 13 targets since returning from injury. I’ll peg his floor at 6-70-0, and his ceiling north of 10-100-1
The Chiefs have been strong against the tight end this year, even without Eric Berry. But as was the case last week against the Rams: Evan Engram is talented enough, and runs enough wide receiver-style routes, that he’s still strongly in play. In fact, he’s a sneaky-awesome tourney play, as everyone is so focused on Gronk and Kelce this week, Engram should draw far lower ownership. Engram’s matchup is not as good as Kelce’s, but he sees more targets, has the same general aDOT, and has the same scoring potential. Kelce is the better play, but Engram is maybe 25/75 to outscore him, and I think the ownership gap will be greater than that three to one margin.
Guys I Like In Cash Games: Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram
Guys I Like In Tourneys: All of the above, plus… Tyreek Hill, Eli Manning, Orleans Darkwa
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
The Reid Option
Kareem Hunt @ NYG ($8000 DK, $8600 FD, $13,400 FDRAFT) – Yes, Hunt’s star has dimmed after failing to find the zone in six straight games, but I’m betting on that dubious streak stops here. The Giants are the first legit “give-up” team of 2017, and the 10-point favorite Chiefs should roll, keeping Hunt on the field and racking up touches. The Giants are bottom-five in fantasy points allowed over opponent average to RBs and have allowed the second-most RB rushing yardage per game overall.
Sterling Shepard vs KC ($6300 DK, $6500 FD, $12,900 FDRAFT) – Shepard has been a target magnet since coming back from injury, averaging 11 looks, eight receptions, and 106 yards per game. This week he draws the slot coverage of Steven Nelson, who is allowing an egregious .44 fantasy points per route run, and the KC defense as a whole has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to slot WR, per Mike Clay. Shep is extremely appealing on full PPR sites and is severely underpriced on FanDuel, making him a sick cash game option no matter where you play.
Travis Kelce @ NYG ($7300 DK, $7500 FD, $12,500 FDRAFT) – It’s not just that the Giants have famously given up a touchdown to a TE in every game this season, it’s that they’ve also allowed the third-most receiving yards, the fifth-highest catch percentage, and the sixth-highest fantasy points over opponent average mark to the position. The best part about playing Kelce is not wondering if he’ll score, but rather what kind of dance he’ll bust out when he does.
Automattek Absolutes
James White / Dion Lewis / Rex Burkhead
That is right guys, we are discussing all three of the active and useful Patriots running backs in one player blurbs because let’s be real: two of these guys are going to score and it is a legit possibility that all three of them 3x their price tags on DraftKings. A note from @Steve_Andress on twitter made me pay more attention to Burkhead than I was expecting: Rex Burkhead snaps last three games increasing: 18%, 31%, 51%. Last week was only the third time this season a Patriots tailback played more than half the snaps (James White W1 & W4). The fact that Burkhead has become more of a part of the offense while Chris Hogan has been injured and Danny Amendola has taken a real step back is very intriguing to me because this was the role that I expected Burkhead to play at the beginning of the year. Mike Gillislee was inactive last week because the Patriots finally realized what we all know which is that he is #actuallybad.
Dion Lewis has turned into the grinder/lead running back the last three weeks with 42 carries and only 3 targets over the last three weeks. I would likely not want to play Lewis in cash, but I do think his usage as the primary touchdown is intriguing and it is worth nothing that if Belichick wants Lewis to turn into a 3-down back he has already performed well in that role for the Patriots. White was not as involved last week but did score late in the game. He is only $4,700 on DK and has the 4th highest target share on the Patriots. He should be able to make the most of his opportunity against this terrible Raiders defense and the Patriots have the highest team total of the week, so I do feel very confident that one of Lewis/White/Burkhead will provide a GPP-winning sort of score.
The context of wide receiver this week is different from normal weeks. There is no Antonio Brown, no AJG, no Julio Jones. The big boys are not coming out to play this week. Mike Thomas and Mike Evans are the most expensive wide receivers and there is not a chance that I would play either in cash. Thomas has not been explosive enough to justify being the 2nd-highest priced WR in a slate and Mike Evans has broken Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball. As a result, we are really focusing on the mid-tier this week with wide receivers and after Hopkins, Shepard is my favorite target at the wide receiver position. His team is a massive underdog against a bad pass defense, which should already point you in his direction.
Since returning from his short-term injury, Shepard has 9 and 13 targets in back to back games with 212 yards. Even without scoring a touchdown, he has more than justified his price tag in past weeks and his tag this week. He has a 29% target share of a top 10 situation neutral paced offense and faces a defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA, has given up the 6th most passing yards in football and 16 passing touchdowns. I am not worried about Marcus Peters shutting down Shepard at all, the same way that I am not worried about Peterson regarding Hopkins. At these price points and with the context of this slate, it is more important to lock in double digit targets than it is to stress out about how efficient these guys are going to be on a per target basis.
Travis Kelce has been the best tight end in fantasy this year; full stop. He has more 100-yard games than any other player in all of football over the last calendar (more than Julio, more than AB84, more than anyone) and he has added 5 receiving touchdowns this year which is tied for 2nd at his position. He leads all tight ends in Air Yards, is 3rd in target share behind Zach Ertz and Jack Doyle and has a better WOPR than Jordy Nelson, Stefon Diggs, Larry Fitzgerald and other really good wide receivers. I love Gronk more than almost anyone but with them priced so close this week, I do think that Kelce is the better play as his offense just needs him more than the Patriots offense needs Gronk.