RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 5

by JM Tohline (JMToWin) Last Updated 2016-10-10 01:01:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports. To access the NFL Edge in its entirety, take our Premium package out for a free, seven-day test drive!

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Jets at Steelers

Unsurprisingly, this game stands out as one of the top spots on the weekend for offensive production – and really, the only thing that should prevent this game from being the highest-scoring contest on the weekend is the potential of another Ryan Fitzpatrick meltdown. As Gneiffer07 pointed out on our Absolutely Epic Early-Week Podcast this week, however, the Jets’ last two games have come against the Seahawks and “the Chiefs at Arrowhead” – which are two of the toughest matchups a quarterback can have. Granted, Fitzpatrick has not looked as sharp so far this year as he did last season, but Pittsburgh (17th in DVOA against the pass) does not present nearly as tough of a matchup.

Of course, this game will not be dictated by Fitzpatrick and the Jets. Instead, this game will be dictated by the lopsided matchup on the other side: Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ pass catchers against the currently terrible Jets secondary.

“Currently terrible?”

Yeah. At the moment, the Jets rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, while allowing the most yards per pass attempt and the second-highest quarterback rating in the league. What’s more, the Jets rank third in run defense DVOA and second in yards allowed per rush attempt, making this a classic “funnel” spot. Todd Haley is one of our favorite offensive coordinators to rely on for “doing what makes the most sense,” and even though he will obviously feed Le’Veon Bell his fair share of carries in this game, the Steelers will ultimately be perfectly comfortable attacking through the air.

As great of a defensive mind as Todd Bowles is on the other side, he is not going to suddenly adjust his scheme in this spot – which means he’ll be a blitz-happy coach who leaves his cornerbacks in man coverage. Given the current state of Revis Resort, we can only hope that the Jets try to match him up on Antonio Brown. Either way, Brown has the top raw-points projection on the weekend, of any wide receiver, and should be considered a top DFS play even at his elevated salary.

The other two “wide receivers” worth considering on the Steelers are Sammie Coates and Le’Veon Bell. Yes, Le’Veon Bell – who should line up in the slot quite a bit again this week, which raises both his floor and his ceiling. Bell is still a bit of a tough sell in this spot, as the Jets’ defense does lower “floor” and “ceiling” quite a bit on running backs. But Bell’s talent and usage still put him in play in tourneys, where he could always bust out for a big game.

While Markus Wheaton saw his targets drop from five in Week 3 to one in Week 4 (while his snaps dropped from 27 to 21 – with Bell taking over for him in the slot quite a bit), Coates saw his targets rise from four to eight. Given the deep balls with which the Jets have been burned to begin the season, Coates makes for a premium tourney target; the nature of his targets makes him a fairly low-floor option, but his upside in this spot is tremendous.

The last guy to talk about here is Jesse James, who has remained one of Roethlisberger’s favorite red zone targets, but who has offered little beyond that – hitting 31 or fewer receiving yards in every week, and seeing his targets drop from seven to five to four to two. With Bell back in the fold, I’m fine looking elsewhere for cheap tight end production.

On the other side, the Steelers are not quite the funnel defense that the Jets are (or that the Steelers were last year), but they currently rank eighth in run defense DVOA, while ranking 17th against the pass. More importantly, there is almost zero chance that the Steelers’ passing game fails to put up points, which will lead to the Jets having to get aggressive in response. While Ryan Fitzpatrick makes for an intriguing, volume-driven (and matchup-supported) tourney play, he also has a couple pass catchers who can be used in all formats: Quincy Enunwa and Brandon Marshall.

Last year, Marshall and Eric Decker were two of the top wide receivers to target every single week, as Chan Gailey’s spread offense helped get these guys open, and the target distribution on the Jets was narrow enough that we knew each guy would get plenty of looks. Once Enunwa took over a prominent role in the slot this year, that target certainty evaporated a bit – but now that Decker is set to be on the sidelines again this week, we find ourselves in the same position we were in last year: there are two main pass catchers on this team, and they will see a large chunk of the looks. Even while being covered primarily by Richard Sherman last weekend, Brandon Marshall saw 12 total targets; he’s also a guy DFSers are often shy about rostering.

Meanwhile, Enunwa has seen target counts of eight, six, 11, and seven to begin the year, and he is still egregiously underpriced. He may not have the tight-places skills that Eric Decker has (which is what made Decker such a ridiculously valuable red zone target), but on volume alone, Enunwa is an interesting play, and he could end up being a big part of this shootout.

Honestly, I structured my approach to this game a bit incorrectly, as we will close on a whimper instead of on a bang. Matt Forte? Bilal Powell? Yeah. The Jets, strangely, fed Forte 32 touches in Week 2…in a Thursday night game, on a short week, after giving him 27 touches the previous Sunday. I expected Forte to receive a lighter workload in that Thursday night game (that only made sense), and then, once the Jets were comfortable giving him 32 touches on a short week, I expected his usage to again be on the high end in Week 3 after a ten-day layoff…but the Jets then decided to scale back Forte’s workload, and have given him touch counts of 17 and 16 the last two weeks. At this stage in his career (and in this matchup), Forte is more valuable from a volume standpoint than a talent standpoint. With Forte currently recovering from a (minor?) injury, and with him and Powell suddenly splitting the workload in the way we assumed coming into the season would be the case all along, I am a bit tepid on this backfield as a whole. Sure, either guy could pop off for a big play or two, but you can find a higher floor/ceiling combo by looking to running backs in other spots instead.

Guys I like in cash games: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa

Guys I like in tourneys: All of the above, plus: Le’Veon Bell, Sammie Coates, Ryan Fitzpatrick

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of writeups taken from our Premium. We have a lot of premium content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Wide Receiver

DraftKings – ChrisGimino’s Correlations

Business is Boomin’ in Pittsburgh Stack

The production in Pittsburgh lends itself to using both of the stud players in the same line-up. The market shares are huge for Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. They cost a lot of money, and you’ll need to save elsewhere to fit them.

Thankfully, we need look no further than the other side of this game to find the savings we need. The much maligned Ryan Fitzpatrick is inexpensive, and his stud WR Brandon Marshall is available at a huge discount. I love the correlated production that exists between these four players, and if the game shootouts business will indeed be boomin’.

Also Consider: Full stacking or replacing with Quincy Enunwa