The Fantasy Grout, Week 10 - Shake It Off
Baby, I’m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake. I shake it off, I shake it off. – Taylor Swift
You probably think I’m now going to talk about a bad beat or some sort of DFS loss. I’m not. You might think I’m going to turn to the surprising election results of this week. Nope. You could guess I’m just describing the way to deal with having a bucket of cold water dumped over your head. Well, I am, but that’s not what this is about either.
I’m just declaring myself a Swiftie. Publicly. For all the (DFS) world to see. That’s all.
Obviously, as a guy in my mid-30s, who grew up on hip hop and isn’t going through any relationship turmoil, Taylor Swift isn’t exactly in my demographic wheelhouse. Swift has been defying demographics since she won the Grammy for Album of the Year as a 20-year-old country singer. When she became the fifth artist ever to win two Album of the Years this year, it was basically old hat. The ten total Grammys she’s taken down, off 29 nominations, would look a lot better if you don’t compare them to me at age 26, when I could tie a tie without looking in the mirror. Yup.
Listen, I like a nice ditty. One to which you can tap your feet. One that gets stuck in your head. One you hum in the shower. Her catalog, through five albums, has enough pop sensations to fill a Coca-Cola warehouse. That’s all you need to win me over. Jams for days.
Also, I have no musical integrity. I don’t need hipster. I don’t need underground. I don’t “just like their old stuff.” Just make my head bob. Yet, in the war between rock bands and hip hop artists, she’s got them both beat. MCs would say they are better for actually writing their own (decipherable) lyrics; rockers would counter that they actually create their own music using instruments rather than a computer. Swift has song writing credits on every single song in her catalog, and three Song of the Year Grammy on her resume. Also, she plays instruments in her music and on stage at her concerts. Did I mention she was doing all this at 16?
Now if you’re one of those people that wants to hold her social life against her, I would ask why? So, she dates a lot of dudes, publicly. Maybe some are for show. Her break-ups? All public. Her songs are just her dating life set to a melody. Maybe she’s a little too image conscious. Two words for all of that: So and What? Let a girl live her life.
If you’ve got a problem with Taylor, you’ve got a problem with me. Think it’s weird that I’m a Swiftie? I’d like your opinions removed from this narrative. As long as she continues to make those jams that you can roll your windows down and blast, I ride with Nils Sjöberg. Her music and me, that’s my #Squad.
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
Time for some accountability. Here’s the picks from last week:
Two guys I tossed cold water on.
Tyreek Hill: 6.2 / $3,400 / 1.824 PT/$K – 5.6% owned in the FF Millionaire
Corey Coleman: 7.1 / $4,500 / 1.578 PT/$K – 10.2% owned in the FF Millionaire
YADA, YADA:
Sammie Coates: 0.0 / $4,300 / 0.000 PT/$K – Yuck.
Darren Sproles: 10.1 / $3,900 / 2.590 PT/$K
Paul Perkins: 7.7 / $3,000 / 2.567 PT/$K
Marcus Mariota: 31.92 / $5,900 / 5.410 PT/$K – Highest Scoring Week 9 QB
GANG GROUT:
Kyle Rudolph: 7.1 / $4,000 / 1.775 PT/$K
Marqise Lee: 13.5 / $3,400 / 3.971 PT/$K
Dontrelle Inman: 11.6 / $3,100 / 3.742 PT/$K
Theo Riddick: 8.6 / $4,900 / 1.755 PT/$K
Charcandrick West: 10.4 / $4,400 / 2.364 PT/$K
Philip Rivers: 18.70 / $6,500 / 2.877 PT/$K
Overall, a so-so week. The Gang finished with 69.9 PT on a salary of $26,300, good for 2.658 PT/$K. Across the whole lineup, we’d like to hit 3+ PT/$K. Both fades were correct, which is nice. Left on the cutting room floor were the top scoring quarterback and a goose egg. For the prior, I was thisclose to recommending him and for the latter, I Should’ve Said No.
The Fantasy Grout
Your lineup has a Blank Space; let’s fill it in!
$6,500-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
TIGHT END
I’m not going to reiterate, weekly, how much of the total tight end production is achieved by a select few TEs. Just know that of our top group of five, only two were active this week, Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham. Olsen had 5/52/1, a disappointment by his standards. Graham exploded on Monday night against Buffalo, going 8/103/2 and tallying 20% of all Week 9 TE TDs, 50% of TE 100-yard games, 20% of TE 7-reception games, and 50% of both 20- and 30-point games using DraftKings scoring.
Also, I still can’t figure out who had the stat that Buffalo had faced a severely low tight end target total, but were the allowing the most something per target. Yards, maybe? Fantasy Points? Anyway, thanks to that person, as having the Graham Hammer, The Grahammer, was a nice way to end my week.
As always, pay up at tight end. Now let me contradict that by recommending cheap tight ends…
YADA, YADA
Whoever Is Playing Buffalo – What? They’re on a bye? Can I start Charles Clay against them and use practice numbers? Fine, then. I’ll find someone else.
Lance Kendricks, $3,000 at NYJ – If you’re looking for a more anecdotal reason to pay up, look no further than “You won’t have to see Lance Kendricks’ name in your lin-up all day, Sunday.”
Still, he’s the Rams leader in target share over the last three weeks (23%), and with Keenum slinging it as much as he has been (99 attempts, the last two games), we could see the Sparks Fly against the Jets passing funnel.
GANG GROUT
Zach Miller, $3,600 AT TB – Yes, it’s a Love Story between Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. When Cutler stepped back under center in Week 8, their affair was reignited, and unsurprisingly, Jeffery scored for the first time this season. A funny thing happened though, on the way to Cutler and Jeffery living happily ever after; Cutler loved Miller more. More Targets (10-8). More Receptions (7-4). More Yards (88-63). And if you remember Back To December, it was the same story. Over the last month, Miller led the team in receptions and yards.
Now, in honor of Friday Night Live, here’s a quick game. Close your eyes. Clear your mind. Think only of tight ends. Now, name the single best tight end among these teams: Atlanta, Arizona, Los Angeles, Denver, San Francisco, and Oakland. Who did you come up with? That’s wrong, whatever you answered. They’re all bad. Yes, I know I just discussed Kendricks above, but that doesn’t mean he’s good.
The point is that seven of Tampa Bay’s eight games have come up against those teams. The eighth? Greg Olsen’s 9-catch, 181-yard explosion, which was the highest yardage total for a tight end this season. The sum of seven games against those six teams plus Olsen’s game is the 16th defense versus tight end. Not just a great match-up, but a great match-up hidden behind a White-16. Cheers to that.
Also, with it being the tail-end of election season, let’s see if we can find someone to endorse these tight end recommendations. Ah yes. Who else?
To be clear, I’m recommending Air Kendrick, but same difference.
WIDE RECEIVER
My hypothesis, found here, is that running backs catching passes and staying in-bounds is lengthening drives and shortening games, hurting wide receiver scoring. Something must explain away only having 12 100-yard games total from wide receivers over the last two weeks. That five of those 12 were off the main slate, probably makes it feel worse than it is, as do the 12 byes over those two weeks. Still, 12 is low.
This has created a situation where running backs are cheaper on the high end, have similar ceilings to receivers, and with higher floors, as a kicker. Well, higher than a kicker. You get it. This week, for example, David Johnson, in the nut match-up at home against San Francisco, is less expensive than Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., and A.J. Green.
That makes these picks extra important. Grout WR is where the battle is won or lost.
YADA, YADA
Albert Wilson, $3,300 AT CAR – My co-host on the Friday Night Live, Dean78904 suggested last week that we dub Allen Robinson “Fetch,” as people keep trying to make him happen. Here’s the problem. He’s already happened. For whatever reason (..ahemBORTLESahem..), it isn’t happening anymore. But it did. If you’re looking for a “Fetch”, look no further than Tyreek Hill. Stop trying to make Tyreek Hill happen, DFS community.
You know who agrees? The Chiefs. Last week, despite their second string running back, Knile Davis, being on his third team in a week, and despite their #1 wide receiver, Jeremy Maclin, playing two total snaps thanks to injury, Hill was out-snapped by both Chris Conley and Albert Wilson. Maybe Hill and coach Andy Reid have Bad Blood.
Wilson was WR4 on the depth chart prior to Maclin going down, but he stepped right in the front of the target line, getting eight and catching three for 42 yards against Jacksonville. This week, that line leads right to the Carolina secondary, who write lines in their diary nightly about how much they miss Josh Norman.
If only you could trust the Chiefs’ pass game…
Adam Humphries, $3,700 VS CHI – Here’s what you need to know. Russell Shepard will likely miss again this week, Humphries had 5/46/1 last week with him out, there’s no Green-33, and Chicago has a Green-32. For one thing, they’ve given up more receptions to WRs per game than any team in the NFL. Perfect for a slot guy.
I know you might be afraid that Mike Evans, now clear of his concussion, will get 100% of J. Winston’s targets, but you’ve just got to be Fearless. At some point, Evans will need a breather anyway.
GANG GROUT
J.J. Nelson, $4,200 VS SF – Don’t go falling in love with Arians calling Nelson the “starter.” We’ll still see plenty of John Brown, and Michael Floyd, and Brittan Golden, and Andre Roberts, and Steve Breaston…. It’s not like Everything Has Changed.
The status quo though, isn’t too bad. The last two weeks, Nelson has missed just 21 total snaps, and he turned all that playing time into the team high in yardage, in consecutive weeks. And, he isn’t one of these cheap WRs with low ceilings. The first 50-yarder gets you value. The second is gravy. The third – more gravy? A gravy fountain? This.
Dontrelle Inman, $3,400 VS MIA – Inman help me defeat JMtoWin last week, which was badly needed, as he had opened up a two-game lead on me. Now this week, against a secondary which thought starting the corpse of Bene Benwikere was a good idea, Inman is the odd man out. That is, every other Charger receiving option has shown up on the injury report except him.
Inman led the receiving corps in snaps last week, just as he did the two weeks prior to that. He also paced the team in targets, was tied for second in receptions, and was third in yardage among pass catchers, trailing by just 19 yards. Travis Benjamin and Hunter Henry missing this game is just gravy a bonus. (America is obese enough. We don’t need more gravy!)
So, just like The Last Time, I’m playing Inman again.
RUNNING BACK
How many words to you want me to use to tell you to play David Johnson this week? Play David Johnson!
YADA, YADA
Rob Kelley, $3,600 VS MIN – Real formulaic. This is a workhorse workload at the price of a back-up. It’s not a good match-up, though Minnesota is more susceptible on the ground than through the air. He’s not particularly talented. It’s just 22 touches, for cheap.
C.J. Prosise, $3,900 VS NE – There is a lot of risk in this play. A lot. First, you have to take Pete Carroll at his word that Prosise has “earned more playing time” and will “play a lot” this week. Maybe “a lot” means slightly more than half. Maybe Carroll flat out lied. You never know.
Even if Prosise is given the lion’s share, you’re still not Out Of The Woods because he’s still got to perform in a toughish match-up. The reason you’d consider Prosise, despite the risk, is that New England has allowed the third most RB receptions and the sixth most RB receiving yards per game. It seems Carroll is turning to C.J. to facilitate an up-tempo game plan, and given PPR-scoring, that is Prosisely why you should play him.
GANG GROUT
Darren Sproles, $4,300 VS ATL
“Did you get into your Halloween candy?”
(With gigantic, puffed out cheeks) “Noooooo.”
“Are you sure you didn’t take some of your M&Ms?”
(Trying to softly chew) “Noooooo.”
“Buddy, there’s an empty M&Ms wrapper right there on the counter.”
(More and more sheepish) “I don’t know where that came from.”
“You have a piece of shell there on your lip. Are you sure?”
(Looking down) “That’s just grass.” (An M&M slips from his grip)
“Was that an M&M?”
(Quickly picking it up) “No that was a marble .. er .. rock. It was a rock marble.”
“I’ve actually been standing here the whole time.
(Looks down. Then looks up with face scrunched) “I have something to tell you. I ate the M&Ms.”
“You don’t say, Coach Pederson. Sproles is your lead back? When he got 22 of 31 running back opportunities last week, not in my Wildest Dreams could I have guessed that. And 22 of 32 opportunities the week before? I had no clue.”
“I was just going to give him a couple touches, but I couldn’t stop. He melts defenses on the field, not on the sideline.”
“I know coach. I know.”
Chris Ivory, $3,400 VS HOU – What’s the opposite of a funnel defense? A colander defense? An upside-down funnel defense? I don’t know? Someone ask Levitan to coin something on the SwallowCast. For now, we’re going to call a defense that allows the sixth most rush yards per game to running backs and the second least pass yards per game a Cracked Foundation. The front-four provide the base for the defense, and with the flaws Houston has in their foundation, Chris Ivory and his bulldozer Style, are going to run it over.
If you didn’t notice, by the way, Jacksonville changed their offensive coordinator, and the next game, changed their lead back. With T.J. Yeldon taking more of the passing down work, he will retain value once his salary drops. Ivory though, has the juice to carry the load (until he gets injured).
One last matter. When I key his name into the search bar, can I call that Tickling the Ivory? Puh-leeeeeeese?!
QUARTERBACK
Pricing has gotten a butt lift. There are still only seven passers too expensive to be mentioned here, but on the other end, there are only three QBs priced at $5,100 or less. That’s compared to six last week, with two less teams on bye.
They’ve also mispriced Jared Goff. He’s $5,000. If you are a rookie whose development would benefit tremendously from live-game action, and you still can’t beat out Case Keenum, your price needs to be below $5,000. I’m not saying it’s a Johnny Holton situation, but … kind of yes. It is.
YADA, YADA
Eli Manning, $5,900 VS CIN – I don’t have “Bad Eli” figured out. No one does. He’s like a hemorrhoid or Cousin Eddie: You never quite know when he’s going to show up. I have noticed a trend though. Four of his six 0 TD games have come on the road, as have four of five games with under 200 yards passing and two of three 3+ INT games. If I start him in one more “Bad Eli” game, We Are Never, Ever Getting Back Together, but that can’t be the case with a cushy match-up at home, can it?
In fact, smart money is on “Elite Eli” showing up. This year, Cincinnati has allowed a 260-and-3, a 310-and-4, a 380-and-3, a 460-and-2 and even a 100-yard QB rusher. How could “Bad Eli” show up in this spot? Who am I kidding? It’s definitely going to be “Bad Eli,” isn’t it?
Never. Like Ever.
GANG GROUT
Carson Palmer, $6,500 VS SF – I’m sure Ruth’s Chris could make an excellent burger. I’ll never know though because 100 times out of 100 I’m getting a steak. It’s that same effect that produces “only” a Green-22 next to Palmer’s match-up against the 49ers. Because teams can rush so freely versus Chip Kelly’s “defense,” passing is never needed. For instance, they’ve allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns, despite facing the second-fewest pass attempts.
That’s the case here too. You know David Johnson is going to get his touches, but fortunately for Palmer’s stat-line, many of those touches come via the forward pass. Whether Johnson gets the ball in his hands via hand-off or dump off, he’ll see Red. That is until he passes them on his way to the end zone.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
Dontrelle me I can’t pick Inman for a second straight week! I can and I will.
I almost forgot to mention this. We’re starting the 2nd Half of Grout for a Shout season. A special Shout goes to SwaguarsFan for winning the first half contest. Also, we are still running the year-long, with the two-thirds threshold in place. For those though, that would like to play, but didn’t start early enough to enter two-thirds of the weeks, now you have a way to compete as well. I’ll keep all these records, so no change on your end. Just get down into those comments and Grout like you’ve never Grouted before!
Oh, and for you SwaguarsFan –
