The Fantasy Grout, Week 2: It's How You Say It
He never found out if she liked the joke, for bursting through the woods came Steel McSteal, wild-animal trapper. He drove a strange machine that was being pulled by a pack of terrible dogs, part wolf and part city mongrel. Steel McSteal had a nasty look on his face, but he was also weeping because he knew how awful he was. On his machine there were chainsaws that chopped down trees, and there were spotlights for catching pretty deer, huge vats of honey for trapping handsome bears, and a big net.
Before the two moose could move, the big net surrounded the beautiful moose and she was hauled into the depths of the machine. “Most beautiful moose I’ve ever seen,” said Steel McSteal as he made an illegal U-turn and sped back the way he had come.
As you obviously know, that is the 6th page of Dennis Haseley’s children’s book, The Invisible Moose. My son loves this book, mainly because Steel McSteal, and later, Professor Owl McFowl, have such great names. I can’t disagree.
I’m bringing it up here, not to go over the intricacies of the plot line, though the moose carrying a second bottle of the invisibility liquid, all the way from Northern Canada to New York City, just in case, certainly proved to be a lucky break. Instead, I want to note how Haseley describes Steel McSteal. His name, in addition to being a great piece of wordplay, is only slightly more subtle than Machine McAnimalThief. Also, I’m sure you noted that, even as he hunts, his own awfulness brings him to tears. Pretty self-aware, if you ask me. I’m not sure if you caught that his U-turn in the middle of the woods after catching the animal was somehow illegal. This McSteal fella ain’t a great dude.
Life is full of examples like this, where context and phrasing are as important as your message itself. Just try telling your girlfriend she looks “good,” when you normally say “great.” In Daily Fantasy, it is no different. If someone asks you to explain how our game is legal while internet poker and sports betting aren’t, how do you explain it? You can go the long way, talking about the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, probably using the word “carve-out,” and dovetailing into individual states’ stances. Eventually, though, you are going to have to make the distinction between “game of skill” and “gambling”. (And, if that person asks how NASCAR and Golf satisfy the multiple events criterion, your best response is “You’re a multiple event!”)
Because so much of Daily Fantasy’s legality is contingent on that distinction, between “skill” and “gambling,” way too much time is spent examining those words. Last Fall, on an episode of his award-winning Daily Fantasy Fix podcast, DB dropped a Back Bomb on a new site, which advertised “gambling”. Good Morning America is out here parsing through the difference between the terms while people eat their cereal in the morning and now a Representative from New Jersey wants the Congress to talk about it.
This little dance we do, toggling between “skill” and “luck” is one we don’t need to do. It’s especially silly in light of the fact that “game of skill” and “gambling” aren’t mutually exclusive. If we skip the tired but true example of day traders, who are very clearly skillful and very clearly gambling, there are other easy examples. “Skill” and “Gamble” are both involved for the small-time employee, who cashes in his life’s fortunate to start a business of his own, and for the very sport we’re discussing, where coaches are skillfully deciding when to take risks (or unskillfully, in Tom Coughlin’s case).
Also, when you consider the language us DFFers use, avoiding the term “gambling” feels like a game of Catchphrase, where you can’t say the word, but can use every other word to describe it. We might cite the over/under, along with each teams’ total and spread. We might say a play is chalk because of touts, and that we want exposure to it. Then, when the games start, we might fade a popular play, take a bad beat when he scores in junk time, and tilt as they ship the top prize to someone else. It is like Poker’s language and Sports Betting’s language had a one-night stand in Vegas, and we’re the love child.
Ultimately, you’re welcome to continue describing “gambling” as the Steel McSteal to Daily Fantasy’s Invisible Moose. On this one, I’m not joining you. The war is already won. Gay Marriage, Weed, Gambling. Young people want them, and politicians need young people’s votes too much. Heck, stances on gay marriage for half of Congress flipped, like a successful last move of Reversi, as soon as the public sentiment went over 50%. Now Daily Fantasy has the checkbooks of these sports and media conglomerates behind it? No sweat needed, we’ve got the nuts.
As our industry rides the ups-and-downs on the path to Daily Fantasy locking in its legality, permanently, I’m going to Steph Curry his thing and move on to something else…
…like the low-cost players you need to make your lineups work. They, the Fantasy Grout.
QUARTERBACKS
LAST WEEK
Overall, last week was a low scoring week for quarterbacks, with none notching even 30 points. The leading scorer, also a member of the optimal DraftKings lineup, was Fantasy Grout-priced, Carson Palmer. He had the top allowable salary, $6,500, and tallied 28.68 points on 300 yards and three touchdowns.
In the Millionaire Maker, Palmer was the seventh-highest owned quarterback, at only 4.4%, and he returned not just the highest score but the highest value at 4.412 PT/$K. He was also one of two optimal lineup Grout players “Left in the Bucket” last week.
By the way, Palmer was third last week in fantasy points per snap. How do I know that? I have access to Rotogrinders’ Incentives. You should too. Just sign up to DraftKings or FanDuel using these links. Even if all the extra info doesn’t win you a million dollars right away, just use these stats at bars. Chicks dig fantasy stats.
THIS WEEK
What’s the opposite of the cream rising to the top? The sour milk sinking to the bottom? Anyway, there are 15 teams’ quarterbacks down in the Grout-price space this week, up from 13 last week. Three of those teams have unsettled situations, as of this writing, but whoever takes snaps for Oakland and Houston will face Baltimore and Carolina’s defenses respectively. That is to say, “Hard Pass.” If Josh McCown stays concussed, Johnny Manziel would take snaps at home against a soft-ish Titans defense. Even then, why do you hate yourself?
By the way, the joke that the soon-to-be Invisible Moose references was that the noise coming through the forest sounded like a “moose-quito,” so in one regard, he’s lucky she got captured. Otherwise, there would have been that awkward moment when someone tries to make a joke, and it falls flat. Believe me, I know that moment all too well.
ANDY DALTON, $5,800 VS SD – With Dalton going for 3.092 PT/$K on his $6,100 salary last week, it is curious to see his price drop. Certainly, the Chargers secondary offers more of a challenge than the sad-sack Raiders outfit. Really who doesn’t though? Give me the mesh netting you put in the cargo hold of your SUV over the Raiders D, any day!
The Chargers still gave up 240-and-2 to Stafford on 30 attempts last week, while Dalton, despite playing in a DJ Pauly D sized blowout, threw 34 times. Also, the playoff losses cloud the fact that Dalton, with his full complement of receivers, threw for 4,300 yards and had 35 total touchdowns just two years ago. Now, with Eifert providing extra octane in the middle of the field and Bernard acting as an extra gear out of the backfield, Dalton is revving this offense to the … red line. (No, there’s no end in sight with the “red” jokes. Sorry.)
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, $6,400 VS DET – Phil Rivers threw it 42 times last week, guess how many of his passes fell incomplete? Five. Alright, sure. Two were intercepted as well. Details, Schmetails. That said, giving up 35 completions on 42 attempts is pretty indefensible(?). Non-defensive(?). Bad. It’s bad. Given Bridgewater’s high completion rate, I think this is one of those rare instances of round peg, round hole.
JAMEIS WINSTON, $5,600 AT NO – Not a typo. I still prefer 2013’s Heisman winner to 2014’s. New Orleans just gave up the highest quarterback point total last week, and I expect Mike Evans (i.e. the reason we think Johnny Football is any good) back this week.
RUNNING BACKS
LAST WEEK
At running back, the scoring drop off from second to third was pretty steep, as Carlos Hyde’s 35.2 and Matt Forte’s 30.6 were over 7 points clear of the third highest scoring back, Chris Ivory. While only one Fantasy Grout-priced player, Hyde made the highest scoring list, both him and Ivory made the optimal DraftKings lineup, which makes Grout-priced players 3-for-3, thus far.
Hyde, like Palmer, was “Left in the Bucket” in this space last week. His 5.2% ownership rate in the Millionaire Maker was only the 14th highest, but his 90% ownership in top ten $MM line-ups was more telling. Hyde’s value, 6.642 PT/$K, was also tops at running back, while second place in the category was also “Left in the Bucket” last week, “low-ceiling” Danny Woodhead. He posted a 22.2 because touchdowns. That was good for 6 PT/$K. #PointsArePoints
As to Ivory, who was over 17% owned in the tourney and wasn’t mentioned in this space at all last week, I’ll offer the first of many mea culpas. Ironically, his lack of third-down snaps in the preseason had me worried he’d disappear in the second half, if trailing. Instead, it was Doug Martin, highly recommended here and highly owned, who Houdini’d the second half. With Big Tusk Ivory and Steel McSteel both being stationed in New York, it feels like his exotic, illegal petting zoo could use the Jets running back.
THIS WEEK
After you strip out Foster and Ellington, 14 starters and Ronnie Hillman are too rich for our Grout blood this week, which is the same number as last week. The only major role change to capitalize on is Andre Ellington’s leg bruising. Which leads me nicely to…
CHRIS JOHNSON, $3,800 AT CHI – Let’s handle the important stuff first. This “CJ, Something, Something-That-Rhymes-With-J” has to stop. I get it. Chris is too common a first name, and Johnson is too common a last name. Plus, “C. Johnson” is ambiguous with Calvin and Charles. Also, I know it is nice to have a short-hand name for a player, and I know no one, in good conscience, can use CJ2K anymore. All of that is noted.
The thing is that the player we’re discussing is “Just a Guy” at this point, and ironically, there is no more perfect “Just a Guy” name than Chris Johnson. If you MUST have short-hand, I’m endorsing CJAG, “Chris Just a Guy,” but I still say we go with just ”Chris” from now on.
As to the play, it is just a guy cheaply getting the lion’s share of the work against a bad defense. Simple as that. Yes, David is the more talented Johnson, but when Coach Arian’s says Chris is the “lead dog” and gives him a 10-to-1 touch advantage last game, it’s Chris you start versus the team that gave up 4.5 YPC to Eddie Lacy last week.
CARLOS HYDE, $5,100 AT PIT – If I was a hipster, I’d point out that I mentioned Hyde in this column last week, and I played him too. That is, before he was cool. Now, fresh off a week as the top fantasy back, and with a price $200 LOWER than last week (thanks for the early pricing DK!), he’ll be way too popular this week. That said, I don’t have a mustache, and I think PBR is an inferior pilsner. Against a Pittsburgh rush defense that gave up 4.6 yards per tote to a chap not good enough to make an NFL roster the last two years, I love Hyde again this week, and I hope everyone (except my opposition) likes him too. Someone get me some thin rim glasses and a haircut!
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
DANNY WOODHEAD, $4,000 AT CIN – The problem with Woodhead is that a shirt that says: Danny Woodhead Out Snapping, Out Receiving, & Out Scoring Melvin Gordon Since 2015 would require so much lettering, that it’d probably be too big for him.
BILAL POWELL, $3,000 AT IND – The Jets scored touchdowns on drives of 9, 72, 28, and 19 yards last week, which allowed Chris Ivory to shine, despite only 32 snaps (52.5%). Powell, meanwhile, played 29 (47.5%), got 12 totes for 62 yards at a more efficient clip than Ivory, to go with 4 targets and two receptions. His production last week was enough to go over 3.0 PT/$K at a $3,000 price, and I expect this Monday’s game to be a “Powell-game,” trailing on the road against the Colts. And, I’m bitter about not recommending the Big Tusk last week, so I’m doubling down against him.
KHIRY ROBINSON, $3,000 VS TB – When did Drew Brees become Check-Down Charlie Whitehurst? (A No Spiller Caveat Applies Here)
AMEER ABDULLAH, $4,500 AT MIN – With a price like this for talent like his, more like “Ameer $4,500.” Amirite?
WIDE RECEIVERS
LAST WEEK
Paying for wide receiver was the right choice, at least last week. While there were some busts up top, the three top scoring wide-outs were Julio Jones, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins, priced at $9,300, $7,100, and $7,400, respectively. The difference between the highest scoring lineup, regardless of salary, and the optimal DraftKings lineup was just two players: the drop from Forte to Ivory listed above and a slight tweak at flex below. That means the three non Grout wide receivers in this section, were also in the optimal lineup. Julio was owned in the Millionaire Maker at just under 22% while Nuk and Keenan were 3.6% and 2.1%, respectively.
The closest this space came to providing any meaningful advice in the area of wide receivers, was mentioning the Packers third wide receiver. Unfortunately, James Jones, who finished with 22.1 (5.024 PT/$K), good for sixth-highest wideout score in the Millionaire Maker and sixth highest value for the week, wasn’t among the named WR3 options for Aaron Rodgers. And, speaking of Packer receivers, if you started Davante Adams, and his 2.250 PT/$K value, you joined a little over 41% of the tournament. You know what they say, “Meh loves company.”
THIS WEEK
Wide receiver prices this week have SAAAGGGGgggGGGGEEED. (See, lower in the middle. Sometimes, I think these things are just for me.) Last week, 42 wide receivers were over $5,000. This week, after you pull out Dez, TY, and DeSean, we’re looking at just 33, which is much closer to last year’s pricing. I guess that’s what scoring less touchdowns than tight ends will do to you!
TERRANCE WILLIAMS, $4,200 AT PHI – One of the underrated things about having a great offensive line is that if you’re a receiver who runs deep routes, you generally get enough time for your route to develop. I repeat, “That’s one shot, bro!”
Then again, Dez averaged 5.5 for 82.5 and a TD last year, or basically 20 points. Williams needs roughly 60% of Bryant’s prorated 2014 production to hit 3x. Could he do more than that against an Eagles’ defense that gave up Avogadro’s Constant fantasy points to Julio Jones last week? Yes. Yes, he can.
That reminds me of a toast I heard recently: “They say alcohol is a problem, but according to my good friend chemistry, it’s a solution.” – It’s funny, you see, because it’s true.
Digression of the Week
Why aren’t piano bars the “hot spot” in every city? They’re great. When you compare them to, say, going to a concert, they win in every regard. They are more spontaneous, you have a say in what they play, the talent is more awe-inspiring, it isn’t so loud that you have to scream into your friend’s ear, just to let them know you’re going to the bathroom, and you can get a beer. Easily. You can sit and watch. You can dance. Bachelorette’s get stickers put on their bums. Piano Bars for President in 2020.
DONTE MONCRIEF, $4,600 VS NYJ – They call him “Mongrief” for a reason. He’s disappointed before. Now, without TY Hilton, and coming off an 11 target, 6-for-46-and-a-score outing, it’s like you’re backsliding to an ex. Instead of charging in with stars in your eyes, you step in cautiously, just trying not to get hurt again. Why do we go back, you ask? It’s because 6’2”, 220 pounds, with a 40 inch vertical and a 4.40 forty is so dang sexy!
BRANDON COLEMAN, $3,300 VS TB – “Who was the #2 receiver in New Orleans last week?”
“I’m glad you asked. If you go by snap count, it’s Brandon Coleman, who got 58 snaps last week (74%) which is 12 more than the next closest, Marques Colston. If you go by production, that’s a different story. It’s Brandin Cooks, whose 4-for-40some didn’t include the touchdown that accompanied Brandon Coleman’s 4-for-40some.”
This week, Coleman’s final stat line against the same Buccaneers defense that just made Marcus Mariota look like the second coming of Fran Tarkenton will have you making your “Brandon-With-An-O Face.” (A “Brandin-With-An-I Face” would just be weird.)
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
COLE BEASLEY, $3,300 AT PHI – Is Wes Welker the Rosa Parks of short, white slot guys who catch a bunch of balls or is there a pioneer before him I’m missing?
DAVANTE ADAMS, $4,900 & JAMES JONES, $4,700 VS SEA – If not for Richard Sherman roulette, these two would be obvious plays.
STEVIE JOHNSON, $4,200 AT CIN – Did you not hear me? Thirty-Five Completions.
TIGHT ENDS
LAST WEEK
The Year of the Tight End? Could be. There were three tight ends over 30 points in the tournament this week, and four total when you include Gronk. That contrasts very nicely with the total of six non-TEs who notched >30 this week. There were 22 tight end receiving touchdowns in week 1, compared to only 21 wide-out receiving scores. My stance on the tight end resurgence is what you’d read if my name was sixth on a list organized with letters: F-Luke.
The tight end scoring explosion did the unthinkable; it put a tight end in the flex for both the highest scoring and optimal rosters. Tyler Eifert’s 34.4 and Travis Kelce’s 31.6 occupy the TE and FLX spots in the highest scoring roster. To get to the optimal lineup though, you have to take a 0.6 hit from Kelce’s score down to Austin Seferian-Jenkin’s high-stepping 31.0, saving $1,400 in salary in the process. I trust Eifert much more than Seferian-Jenkins going forward, though I trusted neither going into the week.
Also, with Eifert and Seferian-Jenkins joining the fray, that makes 5 of 8 position players that we eligible for the Fantasy Grout last week. Building your wall strongly, my friend.
THIS WEEK
After The Great Tight End Boom of 2015, eleven TEs are priced out of our consideration, up from nine. Tight ends are the Steel McSteal of Daily Fantasy. I assume that Lance Kendricks, cried as he scored his touchdown against Seattle, because he knew how awful his position is.
HEATH MILLER, $3,500 VS SF – Is there an echo in here? No that’s just me recommending the same guy for the second straight week. All the TE TDs, masked the fact that he had a great game despite not scoring. He came in at 4.970 PT/$K, good for ninth at the position. This week, still with no Le’Veon Bell or Martavis Bryant, there are targets available, and Toffee Miller is ready to receive them.
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
KYLE RUDOLPH, $3,500 VS DETROIT – In that round peg, round hole analogy above, I think Rudolph is the peg. Or the hole? I don’t know, but he’s 6’6” and is going to catch a touchdown this week.
DARREN FELLS, $2,500 AT CHI – ”D. Fells” is such a good tight end that he can play for two teams at once. No word if DraftKings will combine “his” points on both teams, but if you have to take one, the Arizona scoring will be the lion’s share.
GROUT FOR A SHOUT
In a runaway, our winner last week was rappy3213. He was the only one to roll with Tyler Eifert and his 9.829 PT/$K value. To put it in perspective, the next closest was the denominator’s Danny Woodhead at $6.000 PT/$K. Well done rappy.
Please, put your Grout for a Shout entries in the comments below.