The Past is Prologue: Week 6
A lot happened in Week 5 of the NFL Season – the return of Tom Brady to the Patriots, the continued excellent play of Minnesota, Dallas, and Atlanta, another heartbreaking but high-scoring loss by San Diego, and perhaps most significantly, I decided to tweak the format of this column a little bit.
Each week I’ve been taking you through a tournament that I’ve max-entered, comparing my best-placing team to the winning team, with the goal of developing ideas for the upcoming week. As some people have caringly pointed out in the comments section and on Twitter, this can lead to some conflict – the team that I am creating in the column isn’t usually my best placing team, leading to questions of “why did you recommend player X but then not use him in your lineup?” Now, the honest answer to that question is that I’m using a large player pool – if I’m entering 150 lineups in a tournament, I usually use at least 90% of the starting NFL suarterbacks in at least one of the lineups that I’m entering. And a “top picks” column that simply listed 27 QBs wouldn’t be of much use to anyone. In my mind, the important piece of my column hasn’t been the picks anyway, as much as it is the strategies and techniques used when entering large tournaments. However, I can see that writing about particular players can be interpreted as a recommendation that the player is my “top pick” at that position.
So going forward, each week I will be analyzing a tournament and comparing the winning entry to the players that I recommended in my column the previous week, rather than my top-placing entry. Now while this may lead me to be more conservative in my article selections, it should also increase accountability. With that being said, I do reserve the right to make adjustments for the fluid injury and playing time situations that evolve during the NFL week, as well as my own continued research. However I will make sure to note any “official” changes in the comments section of each week’s article. Also, I really appreciate the comments! Last week I was very much tempted to make some adjustments based solely off the comments I received below. RotoGrinders readers are about as DFS-savvy as I’ve encountered, so don’t hold back, and if you think I’ve made a poor selection, let me know who you think is a better play.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s take a look at the $300 Sun NFL Monster from this past week, won by RotoGrinders’ own Notorious, as recapped in the DFS Tournament Report this week.
Quarterback
Notorious went with Tom Brady (29.64 pts) coming back against Cleveland, while in my article last week I tried to get a little bit too contrarian with Ryan Fitzpatrick (15.1 pts) in Pittsburgh. While I think that there is some wisdom in paying down at QB, this week the two QBs playing in the projected highest scoring game will be Cam Newton ($8,900 FD, $8,100 DK) and Drew Brees ($8,500 FD, $7,900 DK). Interestingly, Cam is the most expensive QBs on DraftKings, with Brees second, but on FanDuel, Cam is second and Brees is sitting all the way down at sixth. On FanDuel, it will be difficult to get away from Drew Brees, while on DraftKings in tournaments, I will be more tempted to have more shares of the lower-priced QBs, such as Tyrod Taylor at home against San Francisco, Russell Wilson coming off a bye at home against Atlanta, or even Tom Brady (as only the third-costliest QB) at home against Cincinnati.
Running Back
Notorious and I were both on Le’Veon Bell (19.9 pts) last week, however I again went to contrarian with Frank Gore (8.4 pts) as my second RB, while Notorious opted for Todd Gurley (16.3 pts). The winning theme here on FanDuel was selecting RBs who are favored at home, play a large role in their team’s offense, and can chew up large chunks of yardage on the ground even if their game is not projected to be high scoring. This week on FanDuel, I’m looking at LeSean McCoy ($8,200 FD, $6,900 DK) and Lamar Miller ($7,900 FD, $6,600 DK) as running backs who fits this criteria. These two are also in play on DraftKings as well, although if I am reaching down at QB on DraftKings I may be more inclined to reach up for Le’Veon Bell ($9,300 FD, $7,900 DK) who could be the top overall point scorer at the position this week.
Wide Receiver
My wide receivers were a mixed-bag last week, as I got touchdowns out of Brandon Marshall (21.4 pts) and Jordy Nelson (11.8 pts), but was held back by Julian Edelman (6 pts). Notorious similarly got great production out of two of his wideouts with TY Hilton (28.1 pts) and Cameron Meredith (22.1 pts), along with a more pedestrian showing from Jordan Matthews (8.5 pts). Interestingly the winning lineup did not pair his QB with any of his WRs, opting instead for the QB-TE stack (see below). Looking forward to this week, I think Cameron Meredith ($5,400 FD, $4,100 DK) is still a good value on both sites given his increased role since Kevin White went down with injury. Looking again to the Panthers – Saints game, all of the WRs are in play, particularly Kelvin Benjamin ($7,800 FD, $8,100 DK), Brandin Cooks, ($7,500 FD, $7,600 DK), Willie Snead ($7,000 FD, $6,400 DK) if healthy, and Michael Thomas ($5,400 FD, $4,300 DK). Targeting another game, the WRs in the Kansas City – Oakland game are all clustered around the $7,000 mark in what could be a close and high-scoring game. Any of Jeremy Maclin ($6,900 FD, $6,300 DK), Michael Crabtree ($7,000 FD, $6,900 DK), or Amari Cooper ($7,100 FD, $7,500 DK) could work to round out our WR corps.
Tight End
Tight end is where a number of successful teams differentiated themselves this weekend, and Notorious’ Monster winning team was no different, pairing Martellus Bennett (27.7 pts) with Tom Brady, while I chose Hunter Henry (14.9 pts) for the team I built in the article last week. Whether selecting Drew Brees, Cam Newton, or even if selecting a cheaper option at QB this week, I think the QB-TE is a strong correlation stack this week. If choosing Brees, tight end Coby Fleener ($5,600 FD, $3,500 DK) is affordable on both sites and could even provide value in the Flex position on DraftKings.
Kicker
Last week I suggested Brandon McManus (12pts) in the high altitude of Denver while Notorious got even more points out of Adam Vinatieri (23 pts) kicking indoors at home in Indianapolis. This week looking for the best value in a low-priced option on FanDuel, Mason Crosby ($4,600 FD) stands out as a good option kicking as a four point favorite at home in Lambeau Field.
Defense
Pairing your defense with at least one of your offensive player usually provides the positive correlation we look for in tournaments, and both Notorious and I went that route with Pittsburgh (7 pts) and New England (10 pts) respectively. This week, the Buffalo Bills ($4,800 FD, $3,700 DK) will be a popular choice playing at home against Colin Kaepernick and San Francisco, while I also think Seattle ($4,800 FD, $3,600 DK) makes for a more contrarian choice playing at home against Atlanta.
Putting it all together, I’ve come up with the following teams. On FanDuel, a more conservative approach:
While on DraftKings, some more contrarian options, selecting Russell Wilson at QB and paring his TE and Defense:
What do you think of the teams above – are there any places I could have reached better value? Let me know in the comments below and we’ll check back to see how they compare to the winning teams next week!