Week 9, In Which I Ruin Your Team
Have you heard about this Australian rugby player who is absolutely tearing up the National Football League?
His name is Jarryd Hayne. The 49ers signed him in the offseason and he has been absolutely crushing it – just straight up dominating the NFL. It’s a pretty cool story! – oh, um, except for the fact that the 49ers cut him a couple weeks ago, and even with injuries to Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush and Mike Davis, the 49ers have not bothered to add him back onto their active roster…
A lot of Aussies vacation in Thailand. It makes sense – it’s a beautiful place to vacation, and it’s a short flight from Australia. When my wife and I were in Thailand for four weeks in September, we encountered plenty of Aussies (including some older Aussie ex-pats at an Aussie Pub who, judging by the looks they gave us that day, were not fond of us enjoying the fine cuisine at their favorite haunt), and during our last week in Thailand we ended up befriending a pair of these traveling Aussies – a boyfriend and girlfriend around our age who were in Thailand for a week-long “holiday.”
We hung out with this couple a few times (visits to the beach, going out to dinner, exploring the island of Phuket – the usual shenanigans), and…
Wait. Hold on. I have to pause real quickly. I just did a quick Google search of Phuket in order to reference something geographically, and one of the first things that came up on Google was a story attached to the following headline:
“Suspected Russian Gangster Arrested on Phuket, Accused of $1.7m Fraud”
I read the story. This guy was arrested at Nai Harn Gym, where he had been working as a fitness trainer. Nai Harn Gym! We ate dinner with the Aussies at a restaurant in the same courtyard as Nai Harn Gym; how crazy is that!
Okay – back to the story…
…during one of our times hanging out with the Aussies, the subject of “American football” came up. Immediately, the Aussies asked me if I had heard of Jarryd Hayne.
(Picture this in an Aussie accent…) “Have you heard of Jarryd Hayne? He’s a rugby star who’s just been dominating your football.”
“Oh yeah?” – I knew about Jarryd Hayne, sure. I knew it was a cool story that he had made the 49ers’ roster out of training camp. I knew nothing about him “dominating.”
“Every night on the telly, they have more clips of him just dominating. Like, ‘Look what Jarryd Hayne has done this time.’ ”
“Yeah, it’s pretty cool.”
“He’s absolutely dominating. Guys try to tackle him and they just can’t bring him down.”
Listen: he wasn’t dominating at all. Guys could bring him down. That’s why he’s no longer playing “American football.”
I’ve been wanting to write this article for a while. I’ve been wanting to write it ever since I had that conversation with the Aussies, in fact – back when Hayne was still on the 49ers. I wanted to bring up that story and talk about how it’s important to gather information from a variety of sources, as not all information will lead you to the same conclusion.
Did you know that there have been no conclusive reports to indicate John Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury on both legs? Did you know that all started when Bruce Arians made a vague statement along the lines of, “his other hamstring,” which everyone took to mean both hamstrings were injured… which then became fact? (I’m not saying it is not fact – it may very well be; I am just saying that we really have no idea.)
Every week there are reports such as that – where an offhand quote from a coach is stretched into broader context than it actually deserves… and where several days’ worth of news reports are based off those “stretched-out” quotes. This is just one example of why it is important that you “make sure you are getting information from a variety of sources.”
Another example of why you should gather information from a variety of sources arose last week.
RotoWorld’s Evan Silva (whom I respect as much as – and, perhaps, more than – I respect any other fantasy football mind) pointed out multiple times that A.J. Green had averaged 133 yards against the Steelers over his last three games against them.
I pointed out multiple times last week that A.J. Green had only had one really great game against the Steelers in his career – 11 catches for 224 yards, last year.
Who was right? Both of us.
Evan clearly liked A.J. Green last week, so he pulled out the stats that supported his valuation.
I was a bit more iffy on A.J. Green last week, so I pulled out the stats that helped me preach caution.
And honestly, this is a less talented Steelers defense than we have seen in a while, and Dick LeBeau is no longer there, and the Bengals have more weapons than ever before, so not only is it true that neither of us was “wrong,” but also, neither of us was “right”; what ultimately mattered, however, was that last week – in his ninth career game against the Steelers – Green had the second-best game he’d ever had against them, so those who recommended Green looked great, and those who preached caution looked not-so-great.
If you read both Evan and me last week, you would have been able to dig a bit deeper and come to your own conclusion on whether or not you liked Green.
If you just read Evan, you would probably have used Green; if you just read me, you would probably not have used Green.
Obviously, I brought up an example where I was “wrong” on a player, rather than “humble-bragging” about a time I was right and others were wrong. What ultimately matters, though, is that all of us will be wrong from time to time; sometimes, I’ll tell you that something is a -EV play, and just because that guy has a big game does not necessarily mean I was wrong (after all, by “-EV,” I mean, essentially: “If we played this slate a thousand times, and you played this player all thousand times, he would lose you more money than he would win you”; even a -EV play can make you money one week, but if you avoid “negative expected value” plays each and every week, you will see far more profit over the long run than you would otherwise see); other times, however – like with Green last week, or with the idea of the “Gurley tournament fade” last week – I’m having to do a lot more in the way of guesswork to come to a conclusive determination of how I feel a slate should be approached. This “guesswork” is undertaken with the help of a good 20 to 25 hours of research plus lots of additional “pondering,” which is why I am right more often than not, and am a profitable NFL player over the long run. Still, however – sometimes I am wrong!
It’s always funny to me when someone trolls me on Twitter on Sunday or Monday, calling me out for a play I got wrong, as if I ruined their team for them. The truth is: If I ruined your team for you (or if I was the reason you won a bunch of money!), you are doing DFS wrong. I should always be one piece of the puzzle. If I say I like a play, and your research led you to that play also, awesome! If I say I dislike a play and your research was leading you that same way, great! But if my thoughts conflict with your thoughts on a player, dig a bit deeper; see what others are saying; see if you can find any stats or information to sway you one way or another.
Better yet: If you like a player, look for stats and information that can “talk you off that player”! Challenge your thinking each week – trying to find reasons why your “favorite plays” should not be the plays you stick with. Try to find reasons to pivot to different guys; identify the players to whom you are “married,” and see if you can find information that would justify moving away from those guys.
All the while, seek out news, information, and opinions from a vast number of sources! Don’t let me “make or break your week.”
After all, Jarryd Hayne is not dominating the NFL – contrary to what the Australian news may have been reporting.
And A.J. Green turned out to be a great play last week – in spite of the caution I preached.
QUARTERBACKS
Derek Carr at Steelers: First off, let go of the notion that the Steelers are awful in the secondary. Yes, they are not talented. But they have effectively “schemed” themselves into fairly solid secondary play. They are about as “middle of the road” as it is possible for a pass defense to be, meaning Derek Carr should not be downgraded in this one… but he should not be significantly upgraded, either. With that said: the factory-equipped version of Derek Carr this season – even without any “upgrades” – has been pretty darn good. Pro Football Focus has him rated as a top seven quarterback on the season, and what’s more, the Steelers have a solid run defense (and a high-powered offense of their own), which is going to compel the Raiders to pass. Carr is vastly underpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he makes for a tremendous play this week.
Ben Roethlisberger v Raiders: The Raiders’ secondary is actually in the same boat as the Steelers’ secondary: all the talk is about how awful the Raiders’ secondary is, but what proof do we have that they are awful? The fact that people keep saying that? How about the fact that most important metrics and statistics have them pretty much right in the middle of the pack in the NFL? That’s information to file away for the future, when others are upgrading a mediocre quarterback “because they’re facing the Raiders”; what you need to know this week, however, is that “Roethlisberger against a mediocre secondary” is a tremendous play – especially when that mediocre secondary is paired with an elite run defense that will force the Steelers to pass. We should see close to 40 attempts from Big Ben this week, and that’s really all you need to know.
Tom Brady v Redskins: Not that matchup matters much for Brady these days, but the Redskins have a bottom-third secondary. The main concern here, of course, is that the Patriots get out to a big, early lead, and turn the game over to LeGarrette Blount; having watched pretty much every Patriots game since Bill Belichick took over the team, however, I can tell you that the Patriots are likely to keep their foot on the gas pedal through at least the halfway point of the fourth quarter. That should be enough for Brady to toss a good 35 (or more) passes, and while Brady is priced high, there are a lot of great places to pay down this week; paying up for Brady could provide a very high floor for your team at the quarterback position.
RUNNING BACKS
Jeremy Langford at Chargers: Free square! I know I was all-in on Charcandrick West his first week starting, and that absolutely killed me (that was my best week of the NFL season to date – the second-best weekend I’ve ever had in NFL; I can only imagine – and be haunted by – what that weekend would have been like without Charcandrick West!); this week, however, I’m going right back to the “super cheap running back who is now the starter for his team and will see 20 touches in a good matchup.” The Chargers are 32nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA (32nd is last place, in case you were wondering…), and they are allowing five yards per carry – the worst mark in the NFL. Langford has breakaway speed (4.42 40-yard dash), he can squeeze through small holes at the line of scrimmage, and he has good vision and cutback ability. I would consider him at a higher price; I’m all over him this week at the place where he is priced.
Doug Martin v Giants: Really, people? No Doug Martin love? Did you know that Doug Martin is Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-rated running back this season, behind only Le’Veon Bell? Did you know he has pretty much dominated? Did you know he’s receiving a solid 20+ touches per game, and is facing a Giants defense that has devolved into one of the worst run defenses in the NFL? I don’t know why everyone still hates Doug Martin, but here are my thoughts: “Pay him. Pay that man his money.”
Mark Ingram v Titans: With Khiry Robinson out, Ingram should see all the goal line work this week, and he has already been receiving one of the most consistent workloads of any NFL back. He is involved in the pass game, he is strong in the run game. Oh, and he is facing the 30th-ranked run defense (DVOA) that is giving up 4.3 yards per carry (11th-worst in the NFL). Ingram could very easily end up being the top running back play on the week, in a game the Saints should dominate from wire to wire.
Todd Gurley at Vikings: I wish DraftKings and FanDuel required us to start four running backs. I would start all four of these guys, on every single team. Instead, I’ll have to make decisions on whom I should start (and if I truly stick to my “all-in” on Langford, I’ll be left with only one guy of these final three options). Gurley is dominating at a Jarryd Hayne level, and while it appears on the surface that the Vikings have tightened up their run defense, they have done so against Ameer Abdullah (twice), Melvin Gordon, C.J. Anderson, Charcandrick West, and Forte/Langford. Still scared of the matchup? Gurley should feast in this one as he aims to show up Adrian Peterson and move another step closer to gaining the label “best running back in the NFL.”
WIDE RECEIVERS
Stevie Johnson v Bears: Seriously, though. How much value can there be in one week? On a normal week, Stevie Johnson, Derek Carr, and Jeremy Langford would all be must-plays for me given talent, matchup, opportunity, and price. This week, it’s tough to use these guys and even max out your salary cap without overpaying for guys you really don’t need to overpay for! In any case, Stevie should see double-digit targets against what is arguably the worst secondary in the NFL. He is not an elite talent, but he is still a very good player, and Philip Rivers has made lesser players look like Pro Bowlers over the years. Here’s another free square for you to take.
Michael Crabtree at Steelers: For all the attention on Amari Cooper, Crabtree is going pretty severely overlooked. Crabtree is averaging about 1.5 more targets per game than Cooper, and has matched Cooper in touchdowns – as the preferred red zone target in this offense. I love Cooper this week as well, and in a strict “player vs player” sense, I have Cooper ranked higher. When you factor in the price at which each of these guys sits, however, Crabtree is an even stronger play than Cooper. Most people – inexplicably – seem to be overlooking Crabtree this week. Don’t be like most people.
Sammy Watkins v Dolphins: I hate to waste words on a guy who may not play… but if Watkins plays, he is a tremendous tournament option. He has top ten talent, and he is priced like a guy on the WR3 fringe. If you are looking for an affordable, low-owned guy who can help you win a tournament, look no further than Sammy Watkins. If we played this slate a thousand times and you rostered Watkins every time, he would “bust” more times than he would “boom”… but the “booms” would be frequent enough (and would help you in a huge enough way) that I very much see this as a +EV play. Throw him onto a tournament lineup or two, and hope this is a week he “booms.”
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Demaryius Thomas at Colts: I love Antonio Brown, I like Alshon Jeffery (with some concern over Jason Verrett’s coverage), I even like Julio Jones (although I feel he may be overpriced, given how little the Falcons will actually be required to pass this week), but the guy no one is talking about is the guy who has seen double-digit targets in six of seven games this year: Demaryius Thomas. Since Greg Toler got healthy, the Colts have played sides, which means Demaryius should avoid Vontae Davis about half of his snaps. On top of that, Vontae Davis has not been “Vontae Davis” this season. Very few wide receivers in the NFL have the weekly upside Demaryius has, and he is the type of play that could win you a tournament with a massive showing.
TIGHT ENDS
Austin Seferian-Jenkins v Giants: Will he play? He has said he doesn’t want to be out there unless he’s 100% (that might explain how he has missed so much time in his short career – because everyone on the football field is 100% healthy, right?), so who knows if he gets out there this week or not. If he does, however, he’ll be an absolutely elite option. The Bucs’ passing offense will consist of Mike Evans, the running backs, and ASJ. Given that the Giants may be the worst defense in the NFL at covering the tight end, ASJ should be in line to feast this week… if he can make his way onto the field.
Antonio Gates v Bears: Who do you think Philip Rivers will look to most often in the absence of Keenan Allen? If you guessed Antonio Gates, you are on the same page as me! Remember how Gates was the most obvious play in all of DFS for a couple weeks there? And remember how he missed a game then had a so-so game while playing injured, and now it seems no one is really talking about him? I love Gates this week; he should far exceed his price tag, and should put himself right back in the “most obvious plays of the week” discussion after his performance on Monday night.
Rob Gronkowski v Redskins: It’s Gronk. It’s the Redskins. There is no need to pay this much at tight end with some of the great value available at the lower ends of the price range, but no one has the “monster game upside” that Gronkowski has. If you roster him and he has one of his 100-yard, three-touchdown games, you’ll be Gronking pillows and lampshades in your house on Sunday.
Don’t listen to me, though. Go read someone else – then read someone else, then read someone else.
Then meet up with me at the top of the leaderboard.
Then start all over again.