DFS Alerts
Mike Napoli looks to continue Kevin Gausman's struggles against RHBs tonight in Baltimore
Kevin Gausman has given up production to right-handed batters throughout his young career and that phenomenon has continued in 2016. Gausmans’s 3.85 xFIP against RHBs is partly caused by his inability to strike RHBs out, whiffing a modest 19% of right-handed swingers. His 2.16 HR/9 is amazing, considering his fly ball percentage allowed to RHBs is a meager 27%. A 27% HR/FB ratio is generally not sustainable for pitchers, and Gausman is only giving up 28% hard contact to righties. However, if DFS players think Gausman can continue to give up the longball, Mike Napoli and his 0.255 ISO versus right-handed pitchers is a good place to start.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Jason Castro scratched due to a hand injury, leaving Evan Gattis to catch for Houston today
Evan Gattis will catch and bat 8th for the Astros against the pitch-to-contact Jered Weaver.
As reported by: Astros on Twitter Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Jered Weaver Jered Weaver + Jose Altuve = Serious contact
Over the last few weeks, Jered Weaver has displayed a paltry 4% strikeout rate, while giving up a fly ball percentage over 50%. Jose Altuve looks to be a fantastic cash game/high foor option, considering Altuve has a k% of 7.5% against RHP this year. Altuve’s combination of power and speed make him a solid play today against a pitcher who has been pitching to contact at an egregious rate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jered Weaver Dexter Fowler is back at leadoff and hitting the ground running for the Cubs
Fowler is leading off for the Cubs against Zach Davies, a pitcher who has below average numbers against left-handed swingers. Davies has an xFIP against lefties of 4.53, along with a modest k% of 18.2%. Fowler has a wRC+ total of 149 against RHP and looks to set the table for Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Zach Davies Edwin Jackson is back, making the Nats extra interesting today
Edwin Jackson,DFS players’ favorite punching bag for many seasons, is back and pitching for the Padres. Jackson faces a Nationals team that has been swinging the bat better in recent games and the usual suspects are in play, beginning with Daniel Murphy (wRC+ of 169 vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (135 wRC+ versus RHP). If you are stacking the Nationals, add Wilson Ramos to the mix as less popular option (wRC+ of 152 vs RHP). Hopefully Jackson’s no-hit bid in his last start will help to slightly suppress the Nats ownership today, but they are in a terrific situation.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos Aaron Nola shuts down right-handed bats and will be facing only two left-handed bats today
Aaron Nola has an impressive 2.39 xFIP against RHBs, compared to a higher xFIP of 3.54 versus lefties. Nola is also striking out RHBs at a high rate, putting away RHBs 28% of the time in 2016. The Pirates will have two lefties in the lineup today against Nola, starting the lineup with Matt Joyce (152 wRC+ vs RHP) and Gregory Polanco (136 wRC+ vs RHP). However, after Joyce and Polanco, the Pirates have six consecutive RHBs in the lineup ahead of Glasnow. If Nola can get the runs support for a win, he makes for a viable option at pitcher today.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Gregory Polanco Jeff Samardzija no longer starting for SF. Johnny Cueto will take the mound for the Giants today in New York.
Jeff Samardzija is no longer starting today and will now be starting for the Giants tomorrow. Instead, Johnny Cueto will take the bump today to face off against the Yankees.
As reported by: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter Other tagged players: Johnny Cueto Roth's Weather Report is out and there is wind blowing out in New York
The weather around the league looks good and NewYork (Yankees) has 15 mph wind blowing out to right. Check out Roth’s full report for more details.
As reported by: RG MLB Weather Jimmy Nelson has struggled with LHB his entire career, this season has been more of the same
Nelson profiles extremely poor against this juggernaut of a Cubs offense. To get a better idea of how consistently bad Nelson has been versus left-handed batters throughout his career, here’s run-down of his lifetime advanced stats versus LHB; 4.80 xFIP, .351 wOBA, 6.3% K-BB%, 1.27 HR/9, 36.3% Hard %. So, um yeah, that’s not good. Anthony Rizzo (184 wRC+, .448 wOBA, .330 ISO vs RHP) has amazing plate discipline and has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching this season making him one of the top overall plays tonight. The Cubs lineup is primed for stacking in this matchup and we can realistically consider any hitter regardless of lineup position. Dexter Fowler (139 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .199 ISO vs RHP) and Ben Zobrist (121 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .186 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays to pair with Rizzo as the have the platoon and bat in the top half of the order. Kris Bryant (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .249 ISO) and Wilson Contreras (147 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .254 ISO) sacrifice the platoon advantage but have still managed to hit right-handed pitchers extremely well.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Jimmy Nelson
Julio Teheran's 0.96 GB/FB and 34.6 Hard% not a good match for Coors
While there’s been some interest in pitchers in Colorado recently, Julio Teheran might be a good pitcher, but his 0.96 GB/FB and 34.6 Hard% don’t make him a good match for Coors. The Rockies aren’t the top run projection tonight, but come in second with a strong 5.8 runs. Teheran has dominated RHBs (.248 wOBA since last season) making most of them difficult to play at a high cost, but lefties slam him for a .351 wOBA, making Blackmon (113 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Gonzalez (145 wRC+, . 292 ISO vs RHP since 2015) top overall plays and likely worth a high price tag. Cargo costs just $3.5K on FanDuel where he has to additionally be considered a top value.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Charlie Blackmon
Jacob Turner set to make second start of 2016, owns a career 35.4% Hard% versus RHB
We don’t have a very big sample size to properly evaluate the skill set of Turner as his major league experience has come in very short stints that occur rather sporadically. Turner has exemplified reverse splits throughout his brief career (.365 wOBA, 1.42 HR/9 vs RHB) and has had trouble striking batters out (14.6% K%). This sets up well for a righty-heavy Tigers lineup that can be susceptible against high-strikeout pitchers. The Tigers offense has struggled mightily since the All-Star Break (70 wRC+, .280 wOBA, .142 ISO) but this is really a great spot for them as a team in this matchup. Miguel Cabrera (152 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .250 ISO), Nick Castellanos (139 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .225 ISO), Ian Kinsler (123 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .211 ISO), and Victor Martinez (115 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .194 ISO) have had the most success against right-handed pitching this season and are in an elite position to take advantage of Turner in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Jacob Turner Game in Colorado carries some risk again according to Kevin's late update
There have been weather questions in Colorado all week with the games getting in. It’s been a bit more risky because the pitching has actually been a bit more attractive, but Kevin has it YELLOW/ORANGE again along with a few other games with a slight risk of rain. Read the full report on our Weather Page (linked below) to assess risk and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Jon Gray has at least eight Ks in three of last four, faces worst offense on road and vs RHP at Coors
The Braves were shut down by a reverse platoon pitcher in Coors last night and face a better one with much more upside tonight. Jon Gray has pitched at least into the seventh innings with exactly eight strikeouts in three of four starts, two of them at home and the last one in Atlanta. The Braves are the worst offense in the majors vs RHP (74 wRC+) and on the road (73 wRC+). Coors merely bumps them up somewhere around average. With a price tag around $8K, Gray can be used tonight. Even though the Braves don’t have a top run projection tonight, 4.7 runs isn’t too shabby though and we still want to consider a bat like Freddie Freeman (133 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for a reasonable cost at $4.6K or less in a great park. Perhaps more interesting though are Adonis Garcia (82 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP career) and Gordon Beckham (114 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP this season), not because their numbers are strong, but because they each cost below $4K in the top half of a lineup at Coors and RHBs have a slightly higher wOBA against Gray (.308 this year, .336 career).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Adonis Garcia, Gordon Beckham Hammel has struck out 13 of last 40 throwing a harder slider with less movement
Three starts ago, Jason Hammel was destroyed in a 10 run start against the Mets. Since then, he has struck out 13 of 40 batters with at least a 15 SwStr% in each start. The velocity on his slider is up over a mph with nearly one inch less of horizontal movement and a greater chase rate (above 34% in both starts). Considering Mets pitchers are known for throwing the harder sliders with less movement, it’s strange this change occurs after facing them. Though in a dangerous park, the Brewers have just an 84 wRC+ vs RHP due to the highest strikeout rate in the majors against them (26.2%). Hammels could be one of tonight’s better values for around the $8K mark. Ryan Bran (120 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might have some marginal value for around $3.5K on either site. Jonathan Lucroy (137 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy McCarthy in a better spot than it may seem. Can he creep closer to that 90-pitch plateau?
McCarthy has posted a ridiculous 31.0 K-BB% in his three starts since returning from Tommy John Surgery. His 37.9% K% is obviously unsustainable as McCarthy has only induced a respectable, but not elite, 11.1% SwStr%. The downside to McCarthy is that he has yet to throw more than 77 pitches in any start, but has still made it past five innings in every start and we can only hope he continues the gradual process of throwing more and more pitches each time out. McCarthy is going to face a much tougher test tonight than he’s faced in any of his previous three starts as the Cardinals are one of the top offenses in the majors versus right-handed pitchers (117 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP). However, a vast majority of those numbers were posted with Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss in the lineup. The Cardinals have been much more susceptible to RHP since their departure to the disabled list.