DFS Alerts
Albert Pujols has a 95.3 mph aEV in 10 batted balls against Lance McCullers
Lance McCullers has struck out at least six in 10 straight starts, but he’s also walked at least three in 10 of 11 starts, which has only allowed him to complete six innings in five of his starts. Although the upside is immense, there are a few drawbacks. Another is that he’s facing one of the hottest offenses since the break (26.9 Hard-Soft%). They also have the lowest strikeout rate vs RHP (15.3%). For less than $9K though, he still probably has enough upside to be used though. The Angels have several low priced bats who are league average hitters against RHP and McCullers has allowed a slightly higher wOBA to RHBs (.319) than LHBs (.289) in his career. Aside from Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is always in play. It feels like he’s at least assured of a walk tonight and has been stealing more bases this year (at least five each month since May). Albert Pujols (114 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 285 wRC+ and 53.3 Hard% over the last week and a HR with a 95.3 mph aEV in 10 batted balls against McCullers. Yunel Escobar (113 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.6K on DraftKings from the leadoff spot.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Lance McCullers, Yunel Escobar
Lonnie Chisenhall scratched Friday due to illness
Abraham Almonte will now play right field and bat 8th, shifting Tyler Naquin up to the six spot and Juan Uribe up to the seven spot. Naquin’s value rises a bit with this news and he should be treated as a strong GPP play on the road against Dylan Bundy.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes Other tagged players: Tyler Naquin, Abraham Almonte
White Sox implied run total has decreased nearly half a run (4.0)
Michael Fulmer has posted 10 straight quality starts, and while he has gotten fairly lucky thus far (84.3% LOB%), it’s hard to argue with a consecutive start streak of that magnitude. He has a .251 BABIP and 8.5% HR/FB rate that will both undoubtedly continue to regress towards the league average, but Fulmer clearly is a pitcher who should be able to, at the very least, put together another quality start to keep his streak intact against a below average White Sox offense (89 wRC+, .309 wOBA, .149 ISO vs RHP). Fulmer has had two big strikeout games that are inflating his strikeout rate of 22.5%, but that isn’t necessarily his approach. His metrics fall in line with the profile of an average strikeout, good control, ground ball pitcher. It will be tough to use Fulmer on DraftKings where he is one of the most expensive pitching options tonight, but he is much more in play on FanDuel where he is $8.5K and in a good spot to secure the all-important win.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
David and Machado return to O's lineup at home against Bauer
Trevor Bauer has just a 7.0 K-BB% and 40.9 Hard% over his last four starts. He’s an incredibly streaky pitcher, whose overall numbers aren’t bad (batters from either side with a wOBA right around .300 since last season). Lower Baltimore price tags on DraftKings puts them in an interesting position tonight. One line of thought might be that this is a weakened offense after the flu ran through the clubhouse this week with Chris Davis (146 wRC+, .316 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Manny Machado (141 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2015) just returning tonight. The latter has two HRs in 9 PAs against Bauer with a 101 mph aEV on five batted balls. However, the top six all have a wRC+ above 110 and an ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season with only Trumbo above $4K on DraftKings. They’re projected for a marginal 4.4 runs, but could provide some value tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Trevor Bauer Tanner Roark in a nice spot against San Diego, who owns the 2nd lowest wOBA and 2nd highest K% vs. RHP
Roark has held opposing bats to a .267 wOBA at home with an 8.2 K/9 rate, and his estimators suggest that he’s right where he should be (2.86 FIP). The Padres aren’t the pushover they were earlier in the season, yet they still own the 2nd worst wOBA against RHP (.288) with the 2nd highest strikeout rate (24.6%). While Roark hasn’t been a high strikeout arm for the majority of his career, his K upside rises here and we like his shot at the win with Luis Perdomo toeing the rubber for San Diego. Roark is a -225 favorite as of this writing, which makes him the biggest favorite on the board. Roark will have to avoid the scorching hot Ryan Schimpf and will need to keep Matt Kemp at bay, and should cruise through this lineup if he’s able to do that. Wil Myers being out of tonight’s lineup only further increases Roark’s ceiling and floor.
Gerrit Cole has disappointed, but has top matchup with the Phillies at home (26.0 K% since the break)
Gerrit Cole struck out five of 20 Nationals in his return from the DL, but the results from the other 15 batters weren’t as encouraging. While his ERA is low, it’s been a disappointing season peripherally with just an average 12.3 K-BB% and a career low 42.7 GB%. What’s really important though, is that he has tonight’s top matchup in a great park. The Phillies have a 14.9 K-BB% and 21.4 Soft% against RHP with a 26.0 K% and 19.1 Hard% since the break. While the upside may disappoint considering expectations coming into the season, he should still be a great value for a moderate price at home against this lineup with four RH bats in the top five. RHBs have a 24.1% hard and weak hit rate against Cole this season, good for a 0.0 Hard-Soft%. The Phillies have tonight’s lowest run projection, just above three runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Yu Darvish has posted the highest SwStr% (12.5%) of his career this season
In his four starts this season, Yu Darvish has proven that he still posses elite strikeout upside in any matchup. Darvish has a 33.3% strikeout rate, paving the way to a respectable 3.42 SIERA despite a high walk rate (11.9% BB%). The built-in strikeout upside is extremely good news, the downside is that Darvish still hasn’t pitched six full innings to this point and has walked four batters in each of his last two starts. Darvish obviously has the skill-set to shut down any offense on any given day, the only concern is his consistent inability to go deep in the ballgame. If Darvish can limit the walks, he may be able to give us six or seven innings and go long enough to rack up the strikeouts needed to take down a tournament.
As reported by: FanGraphs Tyler Naquin (178 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP) shoots all the way up to 7th in the batting order
At one time, Dylan Bundy was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, but injuries and pitching for the Orioles have slowed him down. He still has a lively arm, averaging 94 mph, but may not live up to the previous hype until he’s traded to the Cubs…..too soon? Both left and right-handed batters have a healthy wOBA above .340 against more due to an average 11.3 K-BB%. He really doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (below 30%), but has a dangerous 0.63 GB/FB in that park. Cleveland bats are extremely high priced, but Tyler Naquin (178 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP) is moving up in the world. He bats seventh tonight, perhaps due to his 301 wRC+ and 53.9 Hard% since the break. While a high priced low order batter is a major risk, Naquin has been paying off often for those bold enough to venture there. A high strikeout rate is likley the reason Francona has been hesitant to move him into the fifth position Jose Ramirez (106 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP this season) has been keeping warm for him.
Other tagged players: Dylan Bundy Bumgarner has struck out 23 of his last 54 batters, but Yankees have just a 17.2 K% vs LHP
Madison Bumgarner is the most established pitcher on the board today. He’s had a few more issues with hard contact recently (above 40% in five of last eight), which has him two-thirds of the way to a career high HR total (14 with a high of 21), but he’s also generating strikeouts (23 of his last 54 batters), which is more helpful from a fantasy standpoint. He gets a major downgrade in park tonight as well as a DH, but it’s better to be a lefty opposing pitcher in Yankee Stadium than a righty. The Yankees have just a 17.2 K% vs LHP, but also a mere 9.7 HR/FB. This is the top arm today if you can afford him, but he costs $13K on DraftKings and may not be the top value with a potentially reduced strikeout rate here. Yankee bats are off our radar tonight.
Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 2.7 HR/9 against right-handed bats
Eduardo Rodriguez has looked awful so far in 2016, allowing a wOBA of at least .381 to hitters from both sides, not to mention a very high 2.70 HR/9 rate against RHs. Brian Dozier is very much capable of taking advantage, as his .436 wOBA, .351 ISO and 37.3 hard% would indicate. He’s been even better on the road against lefties with a .556 wOBA, .531 ISO and 45.8 hard%. The short left-field in Fenway should also work in his favor, and he’s not the only Twins right-hander in a prime spot to pepper the Green Monster. Eduardo Nunez is also an elite target in any format; his SB upside remains high even against lefties and he actually boasts decent power upside against southpaws, making him a safe target in any game type. Nunez owns a .374 wOBA, .241 ISO and 32.9 hard% against LHP in 2016. Last but not least is Miguel Sano, who has flashed huge upside against lefties in his short career. We don’t have a ton of 2016 data on Sano against southpaws (51 PAs), but he’s fared well against them thus far (.432 wOBA, .316 ISO and 50.0 hard%) and should continue that pace this evening. Stacking Sano up with guys like Dozier, Nunez and Robbie Grossman gives you plenty of upside while not totally breaking the bank.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman Giancarlo Stanton (.255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs less than $4.5K and faces a RHP with a reverse split
Logan Verrett has struggled with a 4.21 ERA even with a 78.8 LOB%. He’s shown a bit of reverse platoon split since last year with LHBs having a .329 wOBA against him since last season (RHBs .307 wOBA), but RHBs having a higher hit hard rate (32.3% vs 29.5%). Giancarlo Stanton is back in the cleanup spot tonight and is the top bat (120 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and is reasonably priced at less than $4.5K on either site. Marcell Ozuna costs $3.5K or less and has started to pick it up against RHP (113 wRC+, .173 ISO this season). While Realmuto and Yelich rate decently as well, both cost in excess of $4.5K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Logan Verrett Barney leads off, Tulo cleans up with Martin OUT at home against LH Paxton
James Paxton throws hard and misses an above average rate of bats, but has not been able to generate any weak contact (9 Soft% with a 33.1 Hard%). He could be in trouble here against a hard hitting Toronto team that has made some alterations to the lineup even though Paxton has a reverse platoon split with LHBs hammering him for a .409 wOBA and 42.3 Hard%. Michael Saunders has just a -17 wRC+ and 11.1 Hard% since the break, but might be the most interesting bat in the lineup, as he’s hammered LHP this year (157 wRC+, .302 ISO), but moves down to 5th in the order. RHBs have a more average .305 wOBA (28.5 Hard%). Donaldson (182 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Encarnacion (139 wRC+, .268 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are always top bats against lefties, but very expensive. Troy Tulowitzki (121 wRC+, .192 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Darwin Barney (106 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) are now great values for $3.3K or less on either site in much stronger lineup spots.
Other tagged players: Darwin Barney, Michael Saunders, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, James Paxton Red Sox own the highest implied run total on the slate (6.4). In other news, water is wet.
Another day, another massive Red Sox total. This Red Sox offense clearly has the ability to go off against pitcher, let alone a run-of-the-mill major league starting pitcher like Kyle Gibson (4.61 SIERA, 7.5% K-BB%). In tournaments, it may be beneficial to fade the Red Sox bats in hopes they finally cool off (129 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .273 ISO last 7 days) as they should be the chalk offense tonight even on a Coors slate. Gibson struggles marginally more against left-handed batters (.362 wOBA, 1.15 HR/9) than righties (.310 wOBA, 0.84 HR/9) but actually induces a good number of ground balls (52.7% GB%) and soft contact against batters from both sides of the plate (26.2% Hard%). The left-handed batters to target from the Red Sox are the usual suspects of, David Ortiz (202 wRC+, .479 wOBA, .394 ISO vs RHP), Jackie Bradley Jr.(154 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .298 ISO vs RHP), Travis Shaw (120 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP). Mookie Betts (135 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .223 ISO vs RHP) and Xander Bogaerts (123 wRC+, .363 wOBA vs RHP) are also great options to round out any Boston tournament stacks even though they bat right-handed.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Travis Shaw, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Kyle Gibson Luis Perdomo has a 62.1 GB% and 10.5 SwStr%, but 5.77 ERA since moving into the rotation
Luis Perdomo has not been able to turn an elite 62.1 GB% and strong 10.5 SwStr% into any results with a 5.77 ERA since being moved into the rotation. With an average Z-Contact rate and above average O-Swing%, it may seem as if he’s having occasional issues with command leading to a .372 BABIP and 24.1 HR/FB over this span. He’s an interesting proposition as a secondary pitching option that can afford players some high priced bats or Bumgarner tonight on DraftKings. He’s not without risk, but could help someone win a GPP if he ever meets the upside in some of his other numbers. He hasn’t yet though, and while batters from both sides have a wOBA just above .390 against him there’s a significant difference in hard hit rate, well in favor of LHBs (41.5% vs 25.4%). While that means Harper (182 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Murphy (141 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are still strong plays, it’s interesting that no other Washington bat is above $4K on either site, perhaps giving some of the RHBs some value also.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Luis Perdomo Masahiro Tanaka has a 17.4 career HR/FB at Yankee Stadium and several SF bats are priced down
Masahiro Tanaka is a marginal mound choice tonight against an offense with a great 7.1 K-BB% vs RHP. He has pitched well though and has his strikeout rate up to 24.6% over the last month. He also has a career 17.4 HR/FB at home in Yankee Stadium, evenly split to left and right handed batters. Aside from the short RF porch, people often forget that Yankee Stadium is a favorable environment for RH power as well. Looking at a few SF bats with power (Posey, Belt, and Crawford) might not be a terrible idea. All have an ISO between .150 and .200 vs RHP this year, but a tough home park is likely suppressing those numbers. Players should be careful because we’re not expecting Tanaka to pitch poorly tonight, but it’s more than likely there will be a HR or two. Unlike last time Bumgarner pitched in an AL park, the Giants will not forego the DH tonight. Batting further down in the order, but at great low punt price tags are small sample size heroes Jarrett Parker (180 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Ramiro Pena (169 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP this season).
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Jarrett Parker, Ramiro Pena