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A Contact Prone Pitcher May Help This Offense Smash the Slate

With two extra games, the Angels are projected to be the most popular stack on either site, but only with a 13.9% ownership on FanDuel, as opposed to nearly 20% of lineups on DraftKings with only 10 teams to choose from. In fact, despite no other stack expected to exceed 11.5% ownership on FD, the White Sox and Astros join the Angels above 15% projected ownership on DK. Simulations are even a bit more interesting as neither of the two teams that reach five implied runs (Angels, Braves) smash the slate most often. The Astros (4.95 team run line) due so in 16.2% of simulations on DraftKings, while the Reds (4.92) smash most often on FanDuel (12.6%), the only site where they are available. The Orioles and Rangers are projected as the top value stacks on DK, while the Reds are a bit ahead of the Rangers on FD. To find out which top offenses are the top rated stack tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Despite Injuries, This Lineup Still Mashes LHP

The biggest reason to seek out value bats on a poor pitching slate is so that you can afford premium bats in the other half of your lineup. There are two fairly clear spots that PlateIQ projections suggest players should look for these hitters. Only two teams feature multiple top 10 point per dollar projected batters tonight and both teams are available on both slates. Perhaps a wrap-around stack with Tyler Wade (80 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and Andrew Velazquez (63 wRC+) for $2.5K on DraftKings helps players more easily roster Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .288 ISO) and Mike Trout (204 wRC+, .446 ISO) against Glenn Otto (batters from both sides above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year). Luis Rengifo (133 wRC+ last 30 days) also costs less than $3K on either site. Ohtani, himself, pops up as a strong value, just outside the top 10 on FanDuel ($3.9K).

Not a lot has gone right for the White Sox offensively this season, but they still mash LHP (126 wRC+, 15.1 HR/FB) and that may still be true even without Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez. In fact, tonight’s projected lineup still includes just one batter below a 100 wRC+ and three below a .188 ISO against southpaws since last season. Rich Hill is coming off his worst start of the season (four runs over just two innings) right after the Rays allowed him to go six innings and face a season high (by far) 25 batters. The overall body of work has been fairly marginal (12.0 K-BB%). The contact profile includes just a 34 GB%, but 87 mph EV and 19 IFFB%. His 3.90 ERA nearly matches his 3.89 xERA exactly, though all other non-FIP estimators (7.1 HR/FB) are higher. RHBs have a nearly matching .333 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against him since 2021 and the White Sox are expected to line up entirely from that side. However, due to cost, it’s not the same batters who project for great value against Hill and a Boston bullpen with a 4.43 FIP over the last 30 days. Yasmani Grandal (170 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Josh Harrison (100 wRC+, .105 ISO) each cost less than $2.5K on FanDuel tonight. Adam Engel (101 wRC+, .200 ISO) fits the same price range on DraftKings, while Adam Pollock (132 wRC+, .236 ISO) costs slightly more ($3.2K), but is projected to bat third tonight.

Injuries Beginning to Take Toll on One Top Offense

Including all seven games on the FanDuel slate tonight, four teams top the board with implied run lines between 4.9 to 5.1 without any other of the 10 teams reaching above a 4.2 run team total at this point in time. Three of the four teams (Angels, Braves, Astros) are available on both site with the Reds only offered on FanDuel. With the Angels on top of the board (5.1), there’s no doubt who the top two projected bats are tonight. The lack of high priced pitching means you’ll probably be able to afford Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (204 wRC+, .364 ISO) too. Impressive work that included a 15+ K-BB% at every stop above A ball got Glen Otto noticed enough to start six games last year, in which he produced an 18.0 K-BB%, where a .423 BABIP and 45.9 LOB% ruined his debut season. His five starts this year have been entirely a mess (4.6 K-BB%) with estimators suggesting he deserves his 5.55 ERA, if not something worse. He’s failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in three straight starts. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career with LHBs above .400. Perhaps the only surprise is that more Angels don’t appear among the top projected bats tonight by PlateIQ.

One surprise may be that Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP since LY) is the only Yankee among the top 10 projected bats on either site, even a five game slate on DraftKings, but injuries (and COVID) are starting to hit this lineup fairly hard and maybe that enhances the prospects of a low priced Tyler Wells tonight, but also makes for a cheaper Yankee lineup. Besides the Angels, the Astros (4.95) are the only other lineup with multiple to top projected batters on both sites. Cal Quantrill has completed six innings in five straight starts with four Quality Starts, but with just a 7.9 K-BB% over that span and a 15.1 K% (7.3 SwStr%) on the year that probably isn’t going to cut it that much longer. While nothing else in his profile is really atrocious, there are no areas where he excels enough to comfortably carry that strikeout rate. All non-FIP estimators (6.1 HR/FB) are at least a run above his 3.48 ERA. It’s actually RHBs (.299 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) that have hit Quantrill a bit better than LHBs (.289 wOBA, .310 xwOBA) since last year, though Houston bats hit pitchers from either side of the plate just as well. Yordan Alvarez (151 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .229 ISO) are your top projected Astros.

The Reds (4.92) are the only other offense with multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. Kyle Hendricks has allowed at least four runs in four of his nine starts, but only even as many as two in one of his remaining five. With three or fewer strikeouts in five of his last six starts, an 8.5 K-BB% on the season has been doing him in without anything friendly in his contact profile (35.7 GB%, 9.0% Barrels/BBE). His best estimator is a 4.67 SIERA. He has a pretty massive split too with LHBs within two points of a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2021 and RHBs within two points of .315. Projections really like Joey Votto (147 wRC+, .314 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (125 wRC+, .236 ISO) against him on FanDuel tonight, although conditions (weather, umpire) may not be as hitter friendly as usual in Cincinnati.

That leaves Atlanta as the team which projections seem to be least in sync with sports books on. Ronald Acuna Jr. (178 wRC+, .325 ISO) is the only top 10 projected bat against Ranger Suarez in Atlanta tonight, despite a predominantly RH lineup. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season and Suarez seems to be getting it going recently with a 26.9 K% over his last three starts and a 50.4 GB% (86.4 mph EV) on the year. Atlanta may also play more pitcher friendly tonight with the wind blowing in along with a threat of rain.

This Moderately Priced Pitcher Has Improved with Each Start

From a point per dollar perspective (PlateIQ projections), Lucas Giolito still appears to be the man on DraftKings, currently projected for exactly two points per $1K of salary. No other pitcher on the slate who has actually started a major league game this season is projected for more value, though he’s only the fifth best projected value for $500 more on FanDuel. Only available on FanDuel, Luis Castillo projects as the top value, among those with at least one major league start this year. With the velocity slowly ticking back up with each start, Castillo is coming off his best of three efforts, allowing just two runs to the Blue Jays over six innings, striking out five of 25 without a walk and 13 ground balls. He has a nearly league average 12.5 K-BB% with a 54.3 GB%, but 91.7 mph EV. The exit velocity is the only thing that hasn’t improved with each start. That said, he doesn’t have a single estimator above four and the Cubs should increase his strikeout rate tonight (25.4% vs RHP). The park itself is more problematic, but conditions (weather, umpire) seem to be more pitcher friendly tonight. Which other middle to lower end of the board pitchers are standing out tonight? Check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Tigers-Twins will be delayed until 2pm ET on Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Tigers-Twins will be delayed until 2pm ET on Wednesday due to rain

Who Wins When the Top Pitcher Faces Off Against the Hottest Offense?

FanDuel offers seven games on their main slate, starting a bit earlier tonight, while DraftKings will remain at the regular start time with five. Lucas Giolito carries the only $10K price tag on the board tonight on FanDuel ($10.3K) and is $500 cheaper on DraftKings. No other pitcher even exceeds $9K on both sites, though Cristian Javier does so on DraftKings ($9.3K), where Charlie Morton also costs exactly $9K. Giolito is the clear top pitcher on the board by cost, by point projection (PlateIQ) and by ownership projection. He’s even a top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings and currently expected to be in more than half of DK lineups. His work includes a 34.6 K%, though a 20.7 HR/FB pushes his FIP up to 3.83 and 11.1% Barrels/BBE his xERA up to 3.69. Six of his eight barrels have left the yard. Contact neutral estimators are actually below his 2.84 ERA. The Red Sox are on fire with a league leading 181 wRC+ and matching strikeout and HR/FB rates at 19.2% over the last week. They strike out only 20.4% of the time with a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but Giolito is a tough fade tonight. The weather and possibly the umpiring may be in his favor as well with wind blowing in from right around 10 mph.

With about one-third of his work coming out of the bullpen plus four starts, Javier has struck out 31.5% of batters faced, which makes the rest of his profile (8.1 BB%, 29 GB%, 11.1% Barrels/BBE) much more palatable. All estimators are above his 2.87 ERA, but only a 3.45 xFIP by more than half a run. Seven of his 10 runs came in one blowup start in Washington. He, too, is in a tough spot (Guardians 115 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP). Javier is the second best projected pitcher on DraftKings, but just fourth on FanDuel.

Morton dominated the Padres two starts back, striking out nine of 21, allowing just a single run over six innings. It was his first start with more than five strikeouts this season and the first time where he looked remotely like the pitcher he was last year. He followed that up with five strikeouts, but three runs in 5.1 innings in Miami. Morton has just a 20.7 K% (9.3 SwStr%) on the season. Primarily a two pitch pitcher at this point (curveball, four-seam), the whiff rate on both are down a bit, while each pitch has a wOBA against within a point of .350. The curveball drops down to a .293 xwOBA (the fastball climbs further), though even that is much worse than the pitch performed last year with similar velocities and spin rates. There are some weather concerns in Atlanta, though, with wind in from RF around 10 mph, the park could play a bit more pitcher friendly than usual too. The Phillies have an even 100 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP. Morton is projected outside the top three on DK and top five on FD, but he did show he still has the upside in him two starts back, which makes him a nice GPP play on a small slate should current ownership projections below 10% hold.

Kyle Isbel scratched Tuesday

Kyle Isbel scratched Tuesday

Emmanuel Rivera scratched Tuesday

Emmanuel Rivera scratched Tuesday

Yan Gomes (oblique) scratched Tuesday

Yan Gomes (oblique) scratched Tuesday

DJ LeMahieu scratched Tuesday

DJ LeMahieu scratched Tuesday

The Surprising Stack with a Top Value Projection

On a 12 team board that features seven teams between four and a half and five implied runs, the Dodgers, Yankees and Twins are the only stacks that project for double digit ownership on both sites currently, though projections are fluid and subject to change. The Angels barely get there only on DraftKings. Despite adding four more teams, it’s no question which offenses smash the slate most often in simulations. It’s the same two as yesterday, who do so more than 15% of the time: Dodgers & Yankees. No other team smashes in more than 10% of simulations. Oakland projects as the top value stack on DraftKings (18.4%) by a fairly decent margin against George Kirby, who impressed in his first major league start, but has struggled in his last two against quality offenses (Mets & Red Sox). More than half his contact has left the bat at a 95 mph EV or higher. No other pitcher on the slate can say that, but he’s only had three starts. Stunningly, the Yankees currently project for the best value on FanDuel (12.2%), not too far ahead of the Tigers (11.2%) and Dodgers (10%). To read more about tonight’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Wrap Around Stacks Could Pair Top Value Bats with Top Overall Ones

Pitching is deep and expensive tonight. It’s also high risk and fairly cheap. This is a slate with tons of possibilities. Players may need lots of value bats or they may not or maybe some combination of in between. The first place projections suggest they look is in Minnesota, where the Twins are facing Beau Brieske with a 4.65 run team total. Brieske seems the most obvious candidate to exit the rotation once some people start getting healthy. He’s produced just a 13.2 K% (6.4 SwStr%) through five starts, while also allowed 10 barrels (11.4%). A 5.13 ERA is more than a quarter run below all of his estimators (.210 BABIP). He has a massive reverse-split with RHBs over 100 points better against him, in fact, above .400 by wOBA and xwOBA. Nick Gordon (84 wRC+, .129 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Trevor Larnach (101 wRC+, .130 ISO) are both top of the board point per dollar projected values on either site, despite both batting from the LH side and near the bottom of the order because neither costs more than $2.3K on either site, making for an easier wrap around stack including Byron Buxton (153 wRC+, .342 ISO).

While the Twins are the only offense with multiple top 10 value bats, the great news is that several top offenses feature multiple top 10 projected values on one site or the other. On FanDuel, Pavin Smith (108 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since LY) is projected to bat second against Jon Heasley (small sample .357 xwOBA for RHBs). Jake McCarthy (65 wRC+) should be a bit lower, but both cost $2.3K or less. Yankee stacks against Bruce Zimmermann (batters from either side of the plate at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) become a much easier fit with Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Aaron Hicks (122 wRC+, .210 ISO) for less than $3K behind Judge and Stanton.

DraftKings players can wrap around Luis Rengifo (62 wRC+ vs RHP since LY) and Andrew Velasquez (68 wRC+) at near minimum cost with Ohtani and Trout against Dane Dunning (batters from either side of the plate between a .322 to .342 wOBA and xwOBA since last year). The Mariners are another interesting and cheap lineup with the expected returns of Kyle Lewis (115 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Taylor Trammell (100 wRC+, .245 ISO) against James Kaprielian (LHBs .360 wOBA, .376 xwOBA since LY, RHBs below .280 though). No LH Seattle projected starter costs more than $4.1K on DraftKings or even reach $3K on FanDuel tonight.

Decent Arms Are Not Expected to Be Enough to Slow Down Top Bats

On a 12 game slate without Coors or really very many of the most positive run environments in the league at all and a strong pitching board, the Diamondbacks currently top the slate at five implied runs with the Yankees, Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Angels and Twins all not too far behind, all above a four and a half run team total. It should be no surprise then, that the three teams featuring multiple top 10 hitter projections via PlateIQ are the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels. If Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (205 wRC+, .372 ISO) are available on the slate, they are going to be top projected bats in all but the worst situations. This is no slight on Dane Dunning. Three of his last four starts have been Quality Starts with two runs or fewer. The Rangers are allowing him to pitch deeper into games and it hasn’t hurt the quality of his work at all (23.5 K%, 52.1 GB%, 87 mph EV. A 4.22 xERA is his only estimator both above four and his 3.92 ERA. However, batters from either side of the plate still range between a .322 to .342 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and we’re talking about two superstar MVP candidates in any given year in one of the more positive run environments on the board tonight.

Aaron Judge (168 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since LY) has been nearly beating teams single-handedly over the last month (262 wRC+). Bruce Zimmerann (batters from either side of the plate at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) probably isn’t going to stop him. He was really sharp in the month of April, but has just a 14.4 K% in the month of May (four starts). This does not pair well with a 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV, generating 11.3% Barrels/BBE over this span as well. Overall, his 3.48 ERA is about a half run or more below non-FIP estimators, including an xERA and DRA above four and a half. Judge is the top projected batter on either site tonight, though not too far ahead of teammates Giancarlo Stanton (148 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (140 wRC+, .202 ISO).

Mookie Betts is expected to get the night off on Tuesday, so the Dodgers only have three batters represented among the top 10 projected. Although he allowed three runs, Josiah Gray just pitched his best game of the season in Miami, striking out seven of 25 batters with a home run and no walks. This put his walk rate in single digits (9.9%) and while the contact profile is still a major problem (23 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 14.8% Barrels/BBE), five of his nine home runs have come in just two starts. His 17 barrels are more spread out, though nine of those came in just two starts too. Bat missing (25.3 K%, 12.1 SwStr%) has never been the problem, but he doesn’t have an estimator below four and LHBs have pummeled him for a wOBA and xwOBA within a single point of .385 since being called up last year. RHBs have just a .315 wOBA (.295 xwOBA), but that doesn’t stop Trea Turner (121 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since last season) from being a top projected bat, along with Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Max Muncy (127 wRC+, .251 ISO). Muncy also doubles as the third best projected value on FanDuel ($3K).

High Upside, Great Matchups and Some Risk for Middle of the Board Pitching

Two middle of the board arms, whose PlateIQ projections really stand out, are Sonny Gray and Blake Snell. Both are highly volatile arms, who project well at lower prices and at least part of that is the expectation of a higher workload than they’ve managed so far this season, due to injuries. In Gray’s case, it may also be largely due to the matchup (Tigers 73 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP). He has struck out 25 of 87 batters with a 50.9 GB% this year, though with just a 9.7 SwStr%, 10.3 BB% and 11.3% Barrels/BBE. He has just 14 batted balls that aren’t barrels, popups or grounders through five starts. Regardless, all estimators are within half a run of his 3.48 ERA. Gray is the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings tonight ($6.8K).

Snell struck out five of 17 Phillies in his first start. He lasted just 3.2 innings, more due to performance than pitch count (84), walking three with his only barrel leaving the yard and just one-third of his contact on the ground. Despite all his problems last year (12.5 BB%, 11% Barrels/BBE) he still struck out 30.9% of batters, so that’s going to be there no matter what. He should be good for 90, which may only get him through five innings, but he could total double digit strikeouts in that time. The Brewers have just a 92 wRC+ and 22.9 K% vs LHP. Snell is the top projected value on FanDuel tonight ($6K).

George Kirby, James Kaprielian and Jordan Montgomery are also pitchers who cost less than $7.5K on either site and carry a top point per dollar projection. Kirby impressively struck out seven Rays without a walk in his major league debut, but has struggled in starts against the Mets and Red Sox since, striking out just four of 41 batters. He’s walked just two batters overall, but the contact profile has been a mess (93 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE). More than half his contact has had an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. Kirby ran a 29 K-BB% through five AAA starts before being called up and Fangraphs labels him a 55 Future Value grade (on a 20-80 scale). He may have the top matchup on the slate, hosting Oakland (72 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP) though.

Kaprielian has been all over the place in four starts. Twice he has walked more than he’s struck out (seven to three), but he’s struck out 13 with just three walks in his other two (both against the Twins). Altogether, he has yet to complete six innings with an unimpressive 7.9 K-BB% and 10% Barrels/BBE, despite 66% of his contact below a 95 mph EV. He threw over 100 innings with a 16.3 K-BB% last year, so perhaps he’ll eventually straighten things out, but for now, all estimators exceed his 4.50 ERA. The Mariners have a 111 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs RHP, but we can’t deny the negative run environment in Seattle.

Montgomery hasn’t struck out more than five in a start and is at just 19.3% for the year. However, everything else is optimistic, including a career high 13.9 SwStr% and 16.1 CStr% that’s right on his career average (15.9%) and the league average. Both his walk and barrel rates are just below five percent as well. Estimators are all above his 3.35 ERA, but only his DRA (4.24) is above four. The Orioles have a 78 wRC+ and 27 K% vs LHP.

Tuesday's Board is Loaded with Workhorses and Pitching Upside

Corbin Burnes is the only $10K pitcher on both sites on a fairly large 12 game slate, though Zac Gallen is more expensive than him on FanDuel with a $1.6K difference in price between sites. Chris Bassitt is also exactly $10K on FanDuel, but $400 less on DraftKings. Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Max Fried and Walker Buehler are all also $9K or above on both sites. Needless to say, this is a very healthy pitching board. Burnes is the top projected pitcher (PlateIQ) on either site tonight. While his 31.5 K% is five points behind Dylan Cease, his 17.9 SwStr% tops the board and he’s walked just five batters over his last seven starts. He’s also completed six innings in seven straight (six Quality Starts) with at least 95 pitches in all seven. All estimators are above his 2.26 ERA, but only his FIP (3.41) more than a run so with a 17.4 HR/FB that’s bound to regress. Eight of his 12 barrels (9.8%) have left the yard. The Padres have just an 89 wRC+ with a 22.5 K% vs RHP and San Diego is certainly a park upgrade for Burnes. This is a decent spot for a great pitcher on a board that might split ownership enough so that he won’t be overwhelmingly popular. For a lengthy analysis of all of tonight’s top arms, including the pitcher who tops the board with a strikeout rate five points higher than anyone else, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.