DFS Alerts

Small Slate Also Expected to Be One of Most Hitter Friendly of Season

It might be a bit odd to find five times above 4.9 implied runs on just a six game slate on Monday night, but weather is expected to play a large part around the league tonight. Even a normally substantially negative run environment like Citi Field could be a favorable spot for hitters tonight. Fenway and Wrigley are also forecasted to have very hitter friendly conditions, while Texas and Arizona could be hitter friendly environments with the roof open. We already know it will be in Arizona. Dodger Stadium may be the most negative run environment on the slate merely by playing neutrally. Then you factor in some quality offenses facing sub-standard pitching in those parks and we have one of the most hitter friendly slates of the year so far.

PlateIQ projections are really favoring the weather at Wrigley so far. Half of the top 10 projected bats in terms of overall point totals come from this game. After five straight starts with four strikeouts, Drew Smyly has struck out exactly five in two straight. Relying more on cutters (29.4%) and sinkers (26.5%) this year, a 48.4 GB% is a career high by five full points, sacrificing strikeouts (18.2%), but with the lowest walk rate of his career as well (5.3%). The ends result is a league average pitcher with a 4.08 ERA and all non-FIP estimators within one-quarter of a run. Regardless, batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Smyly since last season and Kevin’s forecast has the wind blowing out to left 20+ mph tonight. Andrew McCutchen (156 wRC+, .310 ISO) has mauled LHP since last season, while Luis Urias (112 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Mike Brosseau (116 wRC+, .194 ISO) have done some damage as well.

On the other side of this matchup, not only does Aaron Ashby have bat missing ability (11.8 SwStr%), but his 21.1 CStr% is second best on the board. However, he’s struck out 18 of 88 in a starting role, which is a far lower rate than 21 of 60 out of the pen. He’s also walked 16 of his 20 batters as a starter as well. The good news is that he’s had a ground ball rate of at least 70% in three of his four starts with a low of 53.3% and has allowed just three barrels all season (3.4%), just two as a starter. The Cubs are projected to bat entirely right-handed in game two and batters from that side are below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against Ashby since last season. Again though, weather trumps all at Wrigley tonight. Willson Contreras (141 wRC+, .261 ISO), Patrick Wisdom (128 wRC+, .303 ISO) and Frank Schwindel (150 wRC+, .288 ISO) are all very dangerous bats in this spot.

The Red Sox (5.66) and Dodgers (5.76) top the board, along with the Brewers (5.66) as the only three teams above five and a half implied runs and those are the only other two teams with multiple batters appearing among the top 10 projections tonight. Tyler Wells seems to be a low upside pitcher (16.1 K%), who the Orioles have on a strict leash. He hasn’t hit the 80 pitch mark yet this season. However, immaculate control (3.9 BB%) and strong contact profile (19.6 IFFB%, 87.4 mph EV) have allowed him to get through five innings in four of his last six starts. RHBs have a .305 wOBA, but .333 wOBA against him in his career with LHBs below .300, but projections expect Rafael Devers (163 wRC+, .329 ISO vs RHP since LY) and J.D. Martinez (149 wRC+, .241 ISO) to tee off on him tonight.

Zach Thompson has struck out just eight of his last 56 batters with a sub-8.0 SwStr% in each of those three starts. There may be a reason he keeps getting moved to the pen. On a positive note, he’s recorded an average exit velocity above 90 mph in just two of his eight starts. While all estimators are more than half a run below his 5.50 ERA (59.6 LOB%), he doesn’t have one below four either. LHBs have a .330 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him since last season with RHBs at .289 and .307, but projections favor the top three in the Dodger lineup anyway. Mookie Betts (145 wRC+, .249 ISO), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) have all been so good it hardly matters.

Many Are Excited For This Pitcher's First Start

This is a tough pitching board on a short slate on Monday night. There’s every reason to be skeptical of the top priced guys, but they do have great matchups and generally project the best today. However, there are a few pitchers who sneak up top from a point per dollar projection standpoint (PlateIQ), who are quite a bit cheaper. David Peterson is actually the third best projected arm on the board (ahead of Drew Rasmussen). He has struck out 12 of his last 45 against the Giants and Braves, while generating a ground ball rate of at least 50% in four of his five outings this year, all of which have lasted at least 15 batters. A 13.0 K-BB% and 54.5 GB% are enough to generate estimators all below four, though also well more than one run above his 2.16 ERA (.219 BABIP, 81.9 LOB%). Peterson is within $300 of $8.5K on either site in a home matchup against the Nationals, who have just an 88 wRC+, but 17 K% vs LHP. The other problem is that while Citi Field is generally a negative run environment, that’s not going to be so much the case, according to Weather Edge tonight. Regardless, Peterson is projected as a top three value on either slate currently (PlateIQ), though this is a fluid situation and can change throughout the day.

Spencer Strider is finally getting his first start and costs less than $7K. A day the projections have long been waiting for, especially on such a small slate, Strider has struck out 37 of 95 with a 16.8 SwStr%. That, in itself is enough to generate just a single estimator above three, but the 3.18 xERA does illustrate some issues in other aspects of his game, including an 11.6 BB%, 31.9 GB%, 91.1 mph EV and 10.6% Barrels/BBE. He has thrown as many as 71 pitches in an outing, but hasn’t recorded more than 46 in nearly a month. Workload is an issue in Arizona (98 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), which is why he projects just a bit behind Peterson from a point per dollar perspective.

Glenn Otto is an even cheaper arm ($6.5K on DK), who projects as the top point per dollar value on DK. Aside from one bad outing, Glenn Otto hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his other five starts, though he’s completed just one Quality Start. This is not so much due to strict workload management, as he’s thrown more than 85 pitches in four straight starts, but walked 12 of his last 90 over that span. The concern here is a 7.9 K-BB%. From a contact perspective, he’s allowed eight barrels (9.4%), but also induced five popups (19.2 IFFB%). He doesn’t have a single estimator that runs at least half a run below his 4.91 ERA, but the matchup, while dangerous, is also high upside (Rays 104 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). The environment will be much more favorable if the roof is closed in Texas tonight.

High Priced Arms in Favorable Matchups

Despite just a six game holiday slate on Monday night, we find three of the 12 starting pitchers exceeding $10K on either site tonight, though none do so on both and no other pitcher reaches $9K on either site tonight. Walker Buehler costs $10.3K on FanDuel tonight. He is both the most expensive pitcher and the top projected one on the board, though not so much do to his own performance. Buehler has struck out just 10 of his last 73 batters, driving his season strikeout rate below 20%. While he hasn’t had a single game swinging strike rate below 9.8% since his first start and his 12.3% season rate ties a career high, a 13.7 CStr% is a career low. Buehler is getting by on control (6.4%) and contact management (48.4 GB%, 86.7 mph EV, 4.3% Barrels/BBE). While he’s completed five innings in all of his starts, he’s recorded sixth inning outs just four times. You’d think the lack of strikeouts with an ERA below three would allow him to pitch even deeper into games, but not the case. All estimators are more than one-quarter of a run above his 2.91 ERA with a 3.95 SIERA being the worst. What’s appealing about Buehler tonight is the matchup (Pirates 77 wRC+, 26.2 K% on the road, 85 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) and the park. Considering weather factors, Dodger Stadium may be the most negative run environment on the slate. For over $1K less, Buehler is also the second best projected value on DraftKings.

Zac Gallen costs $10.1K on FD, but $700 less on DK. The six runs he allowed in his last start represents more than half his season total (11). While he’s also struck out just eight of his last 45 batters with seven walks, Gallen’s produced a 19.0 K-BB% on the season with just an 86.3 mph EV (6.0% Barrels/BBE) and only one estimator (3.66 xFIP) above three and a half. Atlanta leans predominantly right-handed and have scuffled both on the road (87 wRC+, 26.2 K%) and vs RHP (92 wRC+, 26.8 K%). However, RHBs actually have a higher wOBA (.306) and xwOBA (.318) against Gallen than LHBs (.279, .269) since last season. The roof in Arizona is scheduled to be open tonight and while that often actually means a lower scoring environment, it’s certainly weather dependent. Gallen is the second best projected pitcher on the slate and top five projected value on either site.

The oddity here is Drew Rasmussen costing $10.1K on DraftKings. While he’s struck out seven in each of his last two starts, he’s only exceed five strikeouts in one additional start. He does have a 49.6 GB%, which has helped keep his barrels to just 6.6% of contact with only three of the eight leaving the yard. Rasmussen has exceeded five innings just once this season, but a 17.9 K-BB% generates estimators all below three and a half, If also all above his 2.68 ERA, which should continue to benefit from a great defense (5 Runs Prevented). The Rangers have just an 86 wRC and 23.5 K% vs RHP and the park isn’t a bad place to pitch in if the roof is closed (all bets are off if it’s open), but the workload makes the cost difficult to bare on most slates, even with a $1.2K lower cost on FanDuel, you’re unlikely to receive a Quality Start. However, Rasmussen is the fourth best projected pitcher on a six game slate, though PlateIQ projections are subject to change.

Kyle Lewis scratched Sunday

Kyle Lewis scratched Sunday

Daulton Varsho scratched Saturday

Daulton Varsho scratched Saturday

Guardians-Tigers postponed Friday due to rain

Game update: Guardians-Tigers postponed Friday due to rain

Rockies-Nationals postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Rockies-Nationals postponed Friday due to inclement weather

The start of Giants-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain

Game update: The start of Giants-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain

Top Projected Value Stacks Facing Top Projected Value Pitching

A large 13 game slate that finds the Boston Red Sox on top of the board with a 5.71 implied run line that may be the highest team run total we’ve seen outside Coors this year results in projections that suggest they will be the team stacked in lineups most often tonight. In fact, they’re pretty well separated from the other 25 teams, projected above 13% ownership on either site without any other team in double digits, although projections are fluid and subject to change. Unsurprisingly, simulations also find the Red Sox smashing the slate at a very similar rate, above 13% on both sites without any other offense in double digits. The same projections suggest Oakland is the value stack on DraftKings tonight (18.0%) with Detroit (12.5%) the only other team with a Value% in double digits. Interestingly, none of the 26 offenses reaches double digit value or even nine percent on FanDuel. For more on what team you should think about pairing those value stacks with on DraftKings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A Couple of Cheap Bats Make Stacking Tonight's Top Offense Easier

With a bit of a mix of high cost, but also reasonably priced pitching value the need for value bats will probably be on the complementing end of either Dodger or Red Sox stacks, as these two teams are far and away the two top offenses tonight. FanDuel has made Boston stacks a bit easier with Enrique Hernandez (85 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Alex Verdugo (122 wRC+, .169 ISO) costing less than $3K. Both are among the top 10 projected point per dollar values (PlateIQ projections) on FD tonight. Kyle Bradish has an impressive 17.5 K-BB%, but awful contact profile (92.5 mph EV, 11% Barrels/BBE) with an extreme reverse split (LHBs < .300 wOBA & xwOBA, RHBs > .400).

The Cleveland Guardians are the only other offense with two top 10 projected values and just barely with the top two projected batters in the lineup, Myles Straw (103 wRC+) and Amed Rosario (84 wRC+), also less than $3K each against rookie Alex Faedo in Detroit. While he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his four starts with an 11.0 SwStr%, Faedo also hasn’t completed six innings in any of his starts and has just a 16.3 K% with a 91.2 mph EV. Estimators are well above four. In fact, only his 4.24 xFIP is below four and a half. While he has an actual standard split over 60 points by wOBA, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .380 xwOBA against him.

DraftKings projections are going to direct players towards Minnesota for their value bats, where Brad Keller faces Bailey Ober. Keller pitches a lot of innings with marginal results. He’s struck out just seven of his last 57, allowing seven runs over 14 innings in just two starts. His value lies in lots of ground balls (51%), which suppresses his barrels (5.7%), and good control (6.0 BB%), which allows him to go deep into games despite a 14.6 K%. Estimators don’t appear to be in any agreement on him, ranging from a 3.15 xERA to a 4.40 SIERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Through his first five starts, Ober holds just a 19.8 K%, despite a 14.2 SwStr% that’s been at least 11.4% in each start. While he’s been a bit fortunate that just two of eight barrels (10.7%) have left the yard with just a 24 GB%, an impending increase in strikeouts should help resolve some of his contact issues before they become full blown problems. The Twins seem to be playing it cautious with Ober’s workload, pulling him prior to 80 pitches each time out and they do have a strong bullpen without a single estimator above 3.75 over the last 30 days, so players should probably be a bit more cautious here. None the less, Ober has a pretty large split that illustrates issues with LHBs in his career (.356 wOBA, .347 xwOBA). PlateIQ projects two batters from each side as top 10 values on DraftKings. Carlos Santana (75 wRC+) is the top projected point per dollar value on the board at just $2K, joined by Nicky Lopez (101 wRC+) for just $200 more. Projections like Nick Gordon (82 wRC+) and Trevor Larnach (105 wRC+) from the other side for no more than $2.3K each.

The Washington Nationals have one of the higher implied run lines on the board (4.75) in a positive run environment against Austin Gomber, who is neither missing bats (8.8 SwStr%), nor getting called strikes (13.1%), resulting in a drop in strikeout rate to 18.7%, though his control has improved (7.1 BB%) with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.5%). Despite just a single estimator below four (3.74 xFIP, Gomber has five Quality Starts in his last six starts. However, RHBs have a .321 wOBA (.327 xwOBA) against him since last season with projections suggesting a wrap-around stack that includes Victor Robles (78 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) and Lane Thomas (141 wRC+, .181 ISO), both within $200 of $2.5K, along with your more expensive middle of the order bats.

PlateIQ Projections in Strong Agreement with Sports Books Concerning Top Offenses

A 13 game Friday night slate finds two offenses separated from the rest of the, well above a five run team total. The Red Sox easily top the board at 5.71 implied runs at home against Kyle Bradish, while the Dodgers aren’t too far behind (5.48) in Arizona against old friend Madison Bumgarner. There’s a sizable gap until the Braves (4.85) at home against Trevor Rogers and then the Nations and Rockies (4.75 each) facing each other in Washington with Austin Gomer and Aaron Sanchez on the mound. Plate IQ projections are strongly in line with the sports books. Three of the top four projected bats on either site in terms of raw point totals wear Boston uniforms. Rafael Devers (161 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and J.D. Martinez (149 wRC+, .244 ISO) are the top two projected bats on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Xander Bogaerts (137 wRC+, .198 ISO) is not far behind with Trevor Story (89 wRC+, .184 ISO), who has a 145 wRC+ over the last 30 days, just outside the top 10. Kyle Bradish has struck out 22 of his last 68 batters (11.7 SwStr%) against some pretty competent offenses (Cardinals, Yankees, Rays). A 17.5 K-BB% through five starts helps counter an awful contact profile so far (92.5 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE). And even with four of his five starts at home with the other one in St Louis, six of his eight barrels have left the yard. While no estimators are anywhere near his 5.74 ERA, contact inclusive ones (xERA, FIP) are the only ones above four. It seems the poor contact profile is expected to continue in a tough park. Bradish has exhibited a pretty extreme reverse split in a small sample. LHBs own a .209 wOBA and .252 xwOBA against him, while RHBs are well above .400 in both aspects.

Not to be outdone, the Dodgers also place three batters among the top 10 projections, though a bit lower than those top Boston bats. Ironically, Madison Bumgarner allowed his most runs in a start (four) in the same game where he recorded his most strikeouts (seven) last time out. Yet, that result doesn’t even begin to close the still two run gap between his 2.76 ERA and most of his estimators. To be fair, he’s allowed just eight barrels (6.1%) with six leaving the yard, but even his FIP (4.63) and xERA (3.63) are well above his actual results with just an 8.1 K-BB%. The Diamondbacks certainly understand that his ERA is living on borrowed time because he’s only produced one Quality Start, not going much beyond five innings in most of his starts, despite the run prevention. The Arizona bullpen is nothing to fear though. They own a FIP and xFIP above four over the last 30 days. Bumgarner has a smaller, but still noticeable standard split. RHBs own a .316 wOBA and .325 xwOBA against him since last season with LHBs a bit below .300. PlateIQ projections still favor the top three Dodgers in the projected order, but actually in reverse order with Trea Turner (187 wRC+, .277 ISO against LHP since LY) projected a bit ahead of Freddie Freeman (119 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .216 ISO).

Great Matchup & Environment Makes This Cheap Pitcher a Great Value

Among pitchers costing less than $9K on both sites, PlateIQ projections are clearly pointing us in one place and that’s in Jon Gray’s direction in Oakland tonight. A top two value projection on either site, Gray’s numbers are similar to what they were in Colorado, including a 22.7 K% and league average walk rate (8.4%) with an above average ground ball rate (46.3%). However, his 5.14 ERA is more than a run above all estimators, due to a 62.5 LOB%. You have to love the matchup and conditions in Oakland though. Already a fairly substantial negative run and power suppressing environment, Weather Edge suggests a further boost for pitchers tonight, along with a pitcher friendly umpire, maybe the most pitcher friendly one on the slate even. Then you add in the home team’s 74 wRC+ and 24.3 K% vs RHP this year and you can easily see what’s so attractive about the matchup. While FanDuel makes you think a bit for $7.1K with Shane Bieber in Detroit with a comparable matchup not too much more, Gray costs $5.5K on DraftKings tonight.

Jeffrey Springs projects as the third best point per dollar value on either site tonight. He is now a full-fledged starter, throwing 80 pitches and striking out seven of 21 Orioles in his last start. He also issued his first four walks as a starter. What’s not to love? There’s plenty of room to spare from a 27 K% and 15.2 SwStr% with a transition to the rotation that now seems to be complete. He’s mastered the art of contact management so far as well (85.9 mph EV, 4.6% Barrels/BBE). Contact neutral estimators are also barely above three. While he is taking on the Yankees tonight, it is an injury riddled offense in a very pitcher friendly park with Springs costing less than $6.5K on either site.

It’s a bit surprising that this is Carlos Carrasco’s first start against the Phillies (99 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP), considering this is their fourth series already. While he’s allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts, the strikeout rate has dropped to 15.4% over his last five starts. The great news is that the velocity has held steady and he retains a 12.8 SwStr% over this span. In fact, his 13.2 SwStr% on the season suggests impending improvement upon his current 20.5 K%. That’s really been the only flaw in a profile that includes a 3.7 BB% and 6.4% Barrels/BBE. Carrasco’s 3.50 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball and while Carrasco may be accurately priced on DraftKings, he’s $1.2K less on FanDuel.

Top Priced Pitcher Has Some Upside in a Tough Matchup

Alek Manoah and Justin Verlander are the only two pitchers to exceed $10K on a 13 game Friday night slate and each does so on both sites. Manoah has fallen a single inning short of producing a Quality Start in all eight of his outings. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as you’d think (22.3% and just 11 over his last three starts), but the control (4.7 BB%) and contact profile (87.3 mph EV, 2.7% Barrels/BBE) have been elite, while a 12.7 SwStr% suggests the best is yet to come and it could start coming tonight. While the Angels have a 118 wRC+ vs RHP, it comes with a 24.7 K% and Shohei Ohtani left last night’s game early with a back issue. In a tough matchup with some upside, Manoah is only the fifth or sixth best projected pitcher by PlateIQ and could be a bit under-valued in GPPs tonight. For much more on tonight’s top of the board arms, including the potential top projected value on the slate, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Marcell Ozuna (abdominal) scratched Thursday

Marcell Ozuna (abdominal) scratched Thursday

Aaron Hicks scratched Thursday

Aaron Hicks scratched Thursday