DFS Alerts
The start of Giants-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain
Game update: The start of Giants-Reds will be delayed Friday due to rain
As reported by: Mark Sheldon via Twitter
Top Projected Value Stacks Facing Top Projected Value Pitching
A large 13 game slate that finds the Boston Red Sox on top of the board with a 5.71 implied run line that may be the highest team run total we’ve seen outside Coors this year results in projections that suggest they will be the team stacked in lineups most often tonight. In fact, they’re pretty well separated from the other 25 teams, projected above 13% ownership on either site without any other team in double digits, although projections are fluid and subject to change. Unsurprisingly, simulations also find the Red Sox smashing the slate at a very similar rate, above 13% on both sites without any other offense in double digits. The same projections suggest Oakland is the value stack on DraftKings tonight (18.0%) with Detroit (12.5%) the only other team with a Value% in double digits. Interestingly, none of the 26 offenses reaches double digit value or even nine percent on FanDuel. For more on what team you should think about pairing those value stacks with on DraftKings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
A Couple of Cheap Bats Make Stacking Tonight's Top Offense Easier
With a bit of a mix of high cost, but also reasonably priced pitching value the need for value bats will probably be on the complementing end of either Dodger or Red Sox stacks, as these two teams are far and away the two top offenses tonight. FanDuel has made Boston stacks a bit easier with Enrique Hernandez (85 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Alex Verdugo (122 wRC+, .169 ISO) costing less than $3K. Both are among the top 10 projected point per dollar values (PlateIQ projections) on FD tonight. Kyle Bradish has an impressive 17.5 K-BB%, but awful contact profile (92.5 mph EV, 11% Barrels/BBE) with an extreme reverse split (LHBs < .300 wOBA & xwOBA, RHBs > .400).
The Cleveland Guardians are the only other offense with two top 10 projected values and just barely with the top two projected batters in the lineup, Myles Straw (103 wRC+) and Amed Rosario (84 wRC+), also less than $3K each against rookie Alex Faedo in Detroit. While he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his four starts with an 11.0 SwStr%, Faedo also hasn’t completed six innings in any of his starts and has just a 16.3 K% with a 91.2 mph EV. Estimators are well above four. In fact, only his 4.24 xFIP is below four and a half. While he has an actual standard split over 60 points by wOBA, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .380 xwOBA against him.
DraftKings projections are going to direct players towards Minnesota for their value bats, where Brad Keller faces Bailey Ober. Keller pitches a lot of innings with marginal results. He’s struck out just seven of his last 57, allowing seven runs over 14 innings in just two starts. His value lies in lots of ground balls (51%), which suppresses his barrels (5.7%), and good control (6.0 BB%), which allows him to go deep into games despite a 14.6 K%. Estimators don’t appear to be in any agreement on him, ranging from a 3.15 xERA to a 4.40 SIERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Through his first five starts, Ober holds just a 19.8 K%, despite a 14.2 SwStr% that’s been at least 11.4% in each start. While he’s been a bit fortunate that just two of eight barrels (10.7%) have left the yard with just a 24 GB%, an impending increase in strikeouts should help resolve some of his contact issues before they become full blown problems. The Twins seem to be playing it cautious with Ober’s workload, pulling him prior to 80 pitches each time out and they do have a strong bullpen without a single estimator above 3.75 over the last 30 days, so players should probably be a bit more cautious here. None the less, Ober has a pretty large split that illustrates issues with LHBs in his career (.356 wOBA, .347 xwOBA). PlateIQ projects two batters from each side as top 10 values on DraftKings. Carlos Santana (75 wRC+) is the top projected point per dollar value on the board at just $2K, joined by Nicky Lopez (101 wRC+) for just $200 more. Projections like Nick Gordon (82 wRC+) and Trevor Larnach (105 wRC+) from the other side for no more than $2.3K each.
The Washington Nationals have one of the higher implied run lines on the board (4.75) in a positive run environment against Austin Gomber, who is neither missing bats (8.8 SwStr%), nor getting called strikes (13.1%), resulting in a drop in strikeout rate to 18.7%, though his control has improved (7.1 BB%) with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.5%). Despite just a single estimator below four (3.74 xFIP, Gomber has five Quality Starts in his last six starts. However, RHBs have a .321 wOBA (.327 xwOBA) against him since last season with projections suggesting a wrap-around stack that includes Victor Robles (78 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) and Lane Thomas (141 wRC+, .181 ISO), both within $200 of $2.5K, along with your more expensive middle of the order bats.
PlateIQ Projections in Strong Agreement with Sports Books Concerning Top Offenses
A 13 game Friday night slate finds two offenses separated from the rest of the, well above a five run team total. The Red Sox easily top the board at 5.71 implied runs at home against Kyle Bradish, while the Dodgers aren’t too far behind (5.48) in Arizona against old friend Madison Bumgarner. There’s a sizable gap until the Braves (4.85) at home against Trevor Rogers and then the Nations and Rockies (4.75 each) facing each other in Washington with Austin Gomer and Aaron Sanchez on the mound. Plate IQ projections are strongly in line with the sports books. Three of the top four projected bats on either site in terms of raw point totals wear Boston uniforms. Rafael Devers (161 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and J.D. Martinez (149 wRC+, .244 ISO) are the top two projected bats on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Xander Bogaerts (137 wRC+, .198 ISO) is not far behind with Trevor Story (89 wRC+, .184 ISO), who has a 145 wRC+ over the last 30 days, just outside the top 10. Kyle Bradish has struck out 22 of his last 68 batters (11.7 SwStr%) against some pretty competent offenses (Cardinals, Yankees, Rays). A 17.5 K-BB% through five starts helps counter an awful contact profile so far (92.5 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE). And even with four of his five starts at home with the other one in St Louis, six of his eight barrels have left the yard. While no estimators are anywhere near his 5.74 ERA, contact inclusive ones (xERA, FIP) are the only ones above four. It seems the poor contact profile is expected to continue in a tough park. Bradish has exhibited a pretty extreme reverse split in a small sample. LHBs own a .209 wOBA and .252 xwOBA against him, while RHBs are well above .400 in both aspects.
Not to be outdone, the Dodgers also place three batters among the top 10 projections, though a bit lower than those top Boston bats. Ironically, Madison Bumgarner allowed his most runs in a start (four) in the same game where he recorded his most strikeouts (seven) last time out. Yet, that result doesn’t even begin to close the still two run gap between his 2.76 ERA and most of his estimators. To be fair, he’s allowed just eight barrels (6.1%) with six leaving the yard, but even his FIP (4.63) and xERA (3.63) are well above his actual results with just an 8.1 K-BB%. The Diamondbacks certainly understand that his ERA is living on borrowed time because he’s only produced one Quality Start, not going much beyond five innings in most of his starts, despite the run prevention. The Arizona bullpen is nothing to fear though. They own a FIP and xFIP above four over the last 30 days. Bumgarner has a smaller, but still noticeable standard split. RHBs own a .316 wOBA and .325 xwOBA against him since last season with LHBs a bit below .300. PlateIQ projections still favor the top three Dodgers in the projected order, but actually in reverse order with Trea Turner (187 wRC+, .277 ISO against LHP since LY) projected a bit ahead of Freddie Freeman (119 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .216 ISO).
Great Matchup & Environment Makes This Cheap Pitcher a Great Value
Among pitchers costing less than $9K on both sites, PlateIQ projections are clearly pointing us in one place and that’s in Jon Gray’s direction in Oakland tonight. A top two value projection on either site, Gray’s numbers are similar to what they were in Colorado, including a 22.7 K% and league average walk rate (8.4%) with an above average ground ball rate (46.3%). However, his 5.14 ERA is more than a run above all estimators, due to a 62.5 LOB%. You have to love the matchup and conditions in Oakland though. Already a fairly substantial negative run and power suppressing environment, Weather Edge suggests a further boost for pitchers tonight, along with a pitcher friendly umpire, maybe the most pitcher friendly one on the slate even. Then you add in the home team’s 74 wRC+ and 24.3 K% vs RHP this year and you can easily see what’s so attractive about the matchup. While FanDuel makes you think a bit for $7.1K with Shane Bieber in Detroit with a comparable matchup not too much more, Gray costs $5.5K on DraftKings tonight.
Jeffrey Springs projects as the third best point per dollar value on either site tonight. He is now a full-fledged starter, throwing 80 pitches and striking out seven of 21 Orioles in his last start. He also issued his first four walks as a starter. What’s not to love? There’s plenty of room to spare from a 27 K% and 15.2 SwStr% with a transition to the rotation that now seems to be complete. He’s mastered the art of contact management so far as well (85.9 mph EV, 4.6% Barrels/BBE). Contact neutral estimators are also barely above three. While he is taking on the Yankees tonight, it is an injury riddled offense in a very pitcher friendly park with Springs costing less than $6.5K on either site.
It’s a bit surprising that this is Carlos Carrasco’s first start against the Phillies (99 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP), considering this is their fourth series already. While he’s allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts, the strikeout rate has dropped to 15.4% over his last five starts. The great news is that the velocity has held steady and he retains a 12.8 SwStr% over this span. In fact, his 13.2 SwStr% on the season suggests impending improvement upon his current 20.5 K%. That’s really been the only flaw in a profile that includes a 3.7 BB% and 6.4% Barrels/BBE. Carrasco’s 3.50 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball and while Carrasco may be accurately priced on DraftKings, he’s $1.2K less on FanDuel.
Top Priced Pitcher Has Some Upside in a Tough Matchup
Alek Manoah and Justin Verlander are the only two pitchers to exceed $10K on a 13 game Friday night slate and each does so on both sites. Manoah has fallen a single inning short of producing a Quality Start in all eight of his outings. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as you’d think (22.3% and just 11 over his last three starts), but the control (4.7 BB%) and contact profile (87.3 mph EV, 2.7% Barrels/BBE) have been elite, while a 12.7 SwStr% suggests the best is yet to come and it could start coming tonight. While the Angels have a 118 wRC+ vs RHP, it comes with a 24.7 K% and Shohei Ohtani left last night’s game early with a back issue. In a tough matchup with some upside, Manoah is only the fifth or sixth best projected pitcher by PlateIQ and could be a bit under-valued in GPPs tonight. For much more on tonight’s top of the board arms, including the potential top projected value on the slate, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Marcell Ozuna (abdominal) scratched Thursday
Marcell Ozuna (abdominal) scratched Thursday
As reported by: Atlanta Braves
The Surprising Stack Projected to Smash the Slate on Thursday
With the Dodgers with a team run line almost a full run ahead of the rest of the pack, it may be strange that current projections don’t expect them to be the lineup stacked most often in lineups tonight. With the Twins carrying the second highest team implied run line (4.53) and being fairly cheap against a marginal lefty (RHBs career .362 wOBA against Daniel Lynch), we probably shouldn’t be surprised that they are projected to be stacked most often. In fact, they’re the only stack currently projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel (though projections are fluid and subject to change). Perhaps the larger surprise is that neither one of those teams smash the slate most often in simulations. That honor actually belongs to the Rockies against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .383 wOBA, .386 xwOBA since LY)…on the road. Cheap Oakland (against Martin Perez) and Detroit (against Konnor Pilkington) bats are overwhelmingly projected as the top value stacks on DraftKings, while the Tigers (20.9%) are the only team with a value projection above 12.5% on FanDuel right now. For more on what all these means in terms of Leverage Ratings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Spice Up Your Lineups With Some Garlick
The Twins have a 4.53 implied run line that’s second best on the board. They are also facing a LHP. When the Twins face a LHP, Kyle Garlick is generally projected to bat somewhere in the top half of the lineup. This year, he’s been hitting cleanup against southpaws. Kyle Garlick smashes LHP (167 wRC+, .342 ISO). That is his job. In fact, that really is his only job. Being on the short end of a platoon keeps his price low. Entirely too low. Kyle Garlick costs $2.5K or less on either site. Kyle Garlick is the top projected value by PlateIQ on DraftKings tonight. Spice up your lineup with some Garlick. Jose Miranda (71 wRC+, .222 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings against Daniel Lynch (RHBs > .360 wOBA and xwOBA career). He’s currently the third best projected value on DK. Ryan Jeffers (98 wRC+, .174 ISO) is actually a better projected value than either on FanDuel ($2.1K).
DraftKings projections also find nearly half the Oakland lineup among the top 10 projected values. Martin Perez has allowed nine earned runs (13 total) over 49.1 innings, partially because he hasn’t allowed a home run yet, but he’s also allowed only four barrels (2.9%) with a 55.8 GB% and career high 13.6 K-BB%. The Rangers are also letting him go. Perez has six straight Quality Starts, failing to record a seventh inning out in just one of his last five. The home runs are going to come. Some of them at least, but his worst estimator is still just a 3.70 SIERA. That said, RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .340 against him since last season and Oakland bats are incredibly cheap on DraftKings. None of Jed Lowrie (92 wRC+ vs LHP since LY), Elvis Andrus (51 wRC+), Kevin Smith (135 wRC+, .222 ISO) or Chad Pinder (123 wRC+, .223 ISO) cost more than $2.5K. You may not be wrong to have some skepticism about this matchup after Perez just shut out the Astros, but projections are generally regressing to the much larger and longer picture.
FanDuel has multiple Red Sox among the top projected values. Bobby Dalbec (115 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Christian Arroyo (99 wRC+, .165 ISO) are projected to bat near the bottom of the lineup against Dallas Keuchel (batters from either side above a .350 wOBA against since last year), so perhaps a wrap-around or more creative stack is in order. Keuchel is still generating ground balls on more than half of contact, so players definitely want to stack, rather than pick out individual bats here because he’s also walked more batters than he’s struck out.
Projections on both sites also favor a pair of Tigers against rookie southpaw spot starter Konnor Pilkington. FanDuel gravitates towards middle of the order bats like Javier Baez (143 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (104 wRC+, .267 ISO) for $2.5K or less as great potential values. DraftKings favors Daz Cameron (47 wRC+) along with Candelario, also $2.5K or less.
This Offense Generally Projects Very Well Against LHP
A surprisingly large either nine or 10 game Thursday night slate also only features one offense clearly above four and a half implied runs. The Dodgers (5.47 team total) separate themselves from the board by nearly a full run. That said, while the Dodgers aren’t the only team to feature multiple top 10 projected bats by Plate IQ tonight, they are one of just two offenses to do so and perhaps it’s a surprise that the Dodgers only feature two. Freddie Freeman (144 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the third best projected hitter on the board with Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) just a bit further down. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA against Humberto Castellanos since last season, LHBs (.345) have a much larger advantage than RHBs (.302) by xwOBA. Castellanos doesn’t miss a lot of bats (17.4 K%, 8.3 SwStr%), but has otherwise been fairly effective under new pitching coach Brent Strom (6.0 BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE). While his 3.87 xERA is the only estimator below four, he doesn’t have one above four and a half either. In other words, he may be slightly under-valued here for those considering a Dodger fade.
The Twins are second on the board with a 4.53 team run total. While it looked early on that Daniel Lynch might be evolving, recent struggles now present a pitcher with just a 10.7 K-BB%, 91.2 mph EV and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. While seven of his 10 barrels have come in just two starts, so have 14 of his 31 strikeouts and eight of his 15 walks, although not all in the same starts. It seems you never know what you’re going to get when Lynch takes the mound. The overall package right now is a 4.01 ERA that nearly matches his 4.00 xERA with all additional estimators more than one-third of a run higher. The Twins have the ability to and are expected to line up entirely right-handed against Lynch because batters from that side have a wOBA and xwOBA above .360 against him in his short career. Byron Buxton (187 wRC+, .357 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the top projected bat on the board on Thursday. Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .155 ISO) is also among the top 10. As usual when the Twins face a marginal LHP, there will be more discussion of their lineup among the top projected values as well.
One other interesting quirk among the top projected bats is that the Angels only feature Mike Trout (213 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since last season) against Hyun-Jin Ryu (RHBs .327 wOBA, .332 xwOBA since LY). Ryu was at his best in his first COVID abbreviated season in Toronto, but injuries have slowed him down since. He’s started just four games this year, striking out 11 of 76 batters with a 92.6 mph Ev and a 45.9 GB% that would be his lowest since 2017. The elite control is still intact, as he’s walked just three and only one over his last three starts. Estimators are all more than a run below his 6.00 ERA, but also all above four. It is a rarity that Shohei Ohtani doesn’t join Trout among the top projected batters, but that’s not because Ryu is left-handed, but because Ohtani is pitching and not available as a hitter. However, Taylor Ward (168 wRC+, .174 ISO) has crushed the ball over the last 30 days with a wRC+ even higher than Trout over that span (241 to 211).
Tonight's Top Projected Pitchers Cost Less Than $9K
Players should be comfortable paying down for pitching tonight because most of tonight’s most expensive arms are in difficult matchups or may simply be over-priced, but not too far down because all three of tonight’s top projected arms can be had for less than $9K on at least one major site tonight. Tonight’s top three projected pitchers by PlateIQ (projections subject to change) are Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani and Frankie Montas in that order, but without much of a gap. Where the fairly sizeable gap exists is between those three and the rest of the board. Unsurprisingly, this also makes these three pitchers pretty strongly projected point per dollar values too. Especially on DraftKings, where they are the three top projected values costing more than the minimum tonight. Nola and Montas are the top projected values costing more than $6K on FanDuel tonight too. For much more concerning tonight’s top projected pitching values, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Difficult Matchups For Tonight's Most Expensive Arms
Eric Lauer is the lone $10K pitcher on both sites tonight on an oddly sizeable Thursday night slate with either 9 or 10 games. Nestor Cortes is $10.3K on the only site he’s available on and Tarik Skubal breaches $10K on FanDuel, while missing by $300 on DraftKings. Kyle Wright is the only other pitcher on the slate who reaches $9K on both sites. Lauer is now a flame-throwing, power pitching stud, whose 32.9 K% is second best on the slate. He hasn’t struck out fewer than five in any start and has thrown Quality Starts with no more than a single earned run five of his last six times out. He’s also walked only 4.9% of batters. All this makes his 10.1% Barrels/BBE much easier to absorb. Even with seven of them leaving the park (15.9 HR/FB), his worst estimator is a 3.36 FIP. A predominantly right-handed St Louis lineup has absolutely pummeled LHP this year (147 wRC+, 19 K%), which is likely the biggest reason why Lauer is currently not even a top five projected pitcher tonight (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change), despite the substantial park upgrade.
Cortes’s 10.2 SwStr% does not support a 32.4 K%, nor is his 18.8 CStr% particularly elite, so we have to take even his estimators with a grain of salt. That said, he does get a park upgrade, but the Rays strikeout much less against LHP (18.9% with a 108 wRC+). This game is only available on FanDuel, but Cortes is just the fourth best projected pitcher.
Skubal has made significant changes to his pitch usage, achieving the accomplishment of cutting down on his home runs and barrels (5.1%) with more ground balls (48.3%), while not really hurting his strikeout rate (28.4%). He’s also nearly cut his walk rate in half (4.5%). The overall result so far is that he doesn’t have an estimator higher than a 2.77 SIERA and DRA. The Guardians have been much worse against LHP (82 wRC+), but are still fairly contact prone (20.9 K%). Even with just a 76 team wRC+ over the last seven days overall, they have just a 20 K%. Low opposing strikeout rates are probably why Skubal projects outside the top three. Skubal also has some weather concern in the early forecast.
Wright continues to cement himself as a top of the rotation arm with each start this season, most recently coming off five shutout innings in Miami (six strikeouts). His 21.1 K-BB% is more than double his career rate (9.9%), while five of his eight outings have been Quality Starts and his 50.9 GB% is nearly five points above his career rate as well (46%). His 2.49 ERA is below all estimators that still only range as high as a 3.12 xERA. There’s some weather risk in Atlanta, which is firmly a positive run environment, while the Phillies have a 101 wRC+ and 23.4 K% vs RHP. Wright projects just behind Skubal tonight. The most interesting thing about all this is that we haven’t even talked about any of the top three projected pitchers on either site tonight, which means they can all be head for less than $9K on at least one site.
The start of Red Sox-White Sox will be delayed Wednesday due to rain
Game update: The start of Red Sox-White Sox will be delayed Wednesday due to rain
As reported by: the Chicago White Sox via Twitter Ronald Acuna Jr. (quad) scratched Wednesday
Ronald Acuna Jr. (quad) scratched Wednesday
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter