DFS Alerts

Festivus Begins at Wrigley Tonight

Jason Alexander will be making his major league debut against the Cubs tonight. Hopefully he won’t be wearing the cotton uniform, though it may not be that uncomfortable with temperatures well below yesterday at Wrigley. Already 29, Alexander’s had a bit of a bizarro career, not even starting in pro ball until he was 24. He was never really supposed to crack the majors, being mentioned as “upper level rotation depth” in one particular scouting report from Fangraphs, but the Jerk Store…I mean Brewers called and invited him on up tonight to fill Freddy Peralta’s role in the rotation. Although Alexander is not available on either site tonight, the first eight in the projected Chicago lineup all have a 100 wRC+ or better against RHP since last season. With just an 11.1 K-BB% in 47.2 AAA innings this season, Milwaukee may be asking for serenity now if they give Jason Alexander too much of a leash tonight, but it could be a Festivus for the rest of us who stack Cubs.

Projections Suggest This Lineup is Roaring with Value

If you’re looking to stack the top offenses and don’t intend on going cheaper with your pitching needs, you’re going to need some cheaper bats and PlateIQ projections suggest several pairs/sets of teammates in secondary stacks that can get you there while potentially providing great value. Detroit is the only offense with several projected top 10 point per dollar value bats on both sites tonight. It doesn’t look like Baily Ober is striking out batters because he’s been pulled before 80 pitches in every start, but he has struck out nine of 33 since returning from the IL The 22.6 GB% can become a problem, especially with just a 7.0 IFFB% and 10.7% Barrels/BBE, but the 15.6 K-BB% is fine and could even rise, as his strikeout rate currently stands at just 21.4%. That said, non-FIP estimators are all a run or more above his 3.25 ERA for now. Ober’s not awful, but does have a rather large split (LHBs .350 wOBA, .341 xwOBA since last year), though LHBs also have a .330 xwOBA (.296 wOBA) and Tigers are cheap. Harold Castro (92 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Javier Baez (105 wRC+, .219 ISO) are $2.5K or less on FD. Daz Cameron (91 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera (91 wRC+) and Kody Clemens all cost $2.6K or less on DK.

FanDuel projections also believe a pair of Mariners offer value against Kyle Bradish, who has a 16.3 K-BB%, but an awful contact profile (12.2% Barrels/BBE, 92.6 mph EV). He has a massive reverse split of over .150 points by wOBA and xwOBA so far, but it’s still a pair of LHBs that are projected for great values for $2.6K or less in Jesse Winker (178 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Taylor Trammell (99 wRC+, .248 ISO). You can understand why PlateIQ likes the power in a park that was altered to suppress RH power, but not left.

As sure as you’ll almost always find Aaron Judge and Mike Trout among the top projected bats overall, you’ll generally find Kyle Garlick as a top value when the Twins face a LHP, even a pretty good one like Tarik Skubal. Garlick has a 131 wRC+ and .305 ISO against southpaws since last season and costs just $2.2K on DraftKings, where he’s the top projected value on the board. Nick Gordon (45 wRC+) also projects as a great value, costing the minimum. Despite major improvements made this year, RHBs still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .320 against Skubal since last year.

Two Offenses Separate From Rest of the Board

With more pitcher friendly weather on the Wednesday night slate, the Dodgers separate themselves from the rest of the board by more than half a run with a 5.68 implied run line. The Red Sox are second at a 5.04 team total and themselves isolated by nearly half a run in both directions on a 16 team slate. PlateIQ projections are very much in agreement with sports books tonight because while Aaron Judge (167 wRC+, .298 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the absolute top projected hitter on the board against Reid Detmers (RHBs .322 wOBA, .342 xwOBA career), the Dodgers and Red Sox are the only team with multiple top 10 projected bats tonight.

As a matter of fact, three of the top six projected hitters from either site are the top third of the Dodger projected lineup. Mookie Betts (132 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP since LY), Freddie Freeman (103 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Trea Turner (201 wRC+, .320 ISO) hit both left and right-handed pitchers well, though Jose Quintana has over a 100 point split (RHBs .356 wOBA, .369 xwOBA). With a mere 11.1 K-BB%, the majority of Quintana’s value has come from a contact profile that includes an 86 mph EV and 4.5 HR/FB, the latter being unsustainable, though even his FIP (3.22) is more than a run above his 2.15 ERA (five of 16 runs unearned). All additional estimators are above four. Will Smith (93 wRC+, .182 ISO) is also a top projected bat as well.

Hunter Greene throws 100 miles per hour with a 27.6% strikeout rate. That’s good. The bad? Literally everything else. He’s walked 11.8% of the batters he’s faced, kept only 28.7% of his contact on the ground, 23.4% of his fly balls have left the yard and 12.3% of his contact has been barreled. He’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his nine starts, though 40% of his barrels (six) came in a single start. The good news is that the contact profile will likely settle down at some point, but for now, he doesn’t own an estimator below four. Greene has a large reverse split so far (RHBs.428 wOBA, .382 xwOBA), though LHBs have had success too (.317 wOBA, .330 xwOBA). Like the Dodgers, the top half of the Boston lineup hits pitchers from either side well. Rafael Devers (152 wRC+, .341 ISO), J.D. Martinez (135 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (135 wRC+, .220 ISO) are all top projected bats.

One Stop Shopping for Value Pitching

When we’re talking about today’s top projected point per dollar pitching values, one particular matchup in Texas stands out. Both pitchers project as top three values on either site. Jeffrey Springs is holding his strikeout rate (26.8%) since being inserted into the rotation, though he’s only been fully stretched out for a start or two or at least whatever that means for the Rays, as they’ve cut him off at exactly 80 pitches each of the last two times out. He’s only even walked a batter in one of his five starts. As for the contact profile, 6.1% Barrels/BBE seems like it might even be too high for his 85.6 mph EV. Estimators are all more than a run above his 1.62 ERA (.213 BABIP, 92.1 LOB%), but no higher than a 3.23 xFIP. For their part, the Rangers have punished LHP this year (113 wRC+, 19.8 K%, 15.3 HR/FB) and the everyone they’ve faced over the last week (150 wRC+), but Springs has been so good and costs just $6.2K on DraftKings, while Texas is a negative run environment with the roof closed, as it normally is.

You can take the pitcher out of Coors, but you can’t take the Coors out of the pitcher. Jon Gray is producing a very similar 22.4 K% and 9.0 BB% to his career rate (actually it’s 2.7 points lower this year) with a 46.4 GB% (46.7% career). His ERA (5.56) remains well above his estimators. Many thought leaving Coors would help cure him of that particular malady (4.63 career ERA with estimators below four), but it has not. His worst estimator is still just a 4.34 xERA. The Rays have a 102 wRC+, but 24.8 K% vs RHP and have really been slumping (75 wRC+ last seven days). Gray costs no more than $7.5K on either site.

Garret Whitlock is another pitcher who projects well from a point per dollar standpoint at a cost of exactly $7K on either site, but strikeouts and velocity are trending down as he has been fully stretched out. He’s struck out just 10 of his last 63 batters with an 8.1 SwStr%. While the other properties of his profile (6.8 BB%, 43.8 GB%, 90.6 mph EV) remain intact as a starter, you have to wonder about those estimators below three and a half. The Reds have an 85 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs RHP, but a 118 wRC+ and 10.3 K-BB% over the last week. Fenway is a hitter friendly park with a hitter friendly umpire tonight, but with some pitcher friendly weather. Whitlock may be a bit more of a risk than projections currently suggest, but still may have the upside to succeed for GPP players.

Top Priced Pitcher Maybe Not as Nasty as Perceived

An eight game Wednesday night slate appears to favor pitching over hitting tonight, which is a bit different than the last couple of days, due to temperatures dropping around the country. Tonight’s board features two pitchers exceeding $10K on both sites and another two exceeding $9K on both. Nestor Cortes is the most expensive pitcher on the board, within $300 of $11K on either site and the only thing nasty in this spot may be the weather forecast, which suggests is the riskiest game tonight. While there’s no doubt that Cortes has turned himself into a quality pitcher, he continues to defy the laws of estimators and strikeouts. A 2.16 xERA is the only estimator not more than half a run above his 1.70 ERA because he’s managed contact extremely well (4.7% Barrels/BBE, 32.8% 95+ mph EV), although that says nothing about sustainability. However, his 30.2 K% comes with just a 9.7 SwStr% and not particularly elite 18.6 CStr%. Question everything…starting with Nestor Cortes’s 2022 results. That said, even a drop in his strikeout rate would probably only increase his estimators to around three and a half with a 5.9 BB%. The Angels have a 110 wRC+, 22.9 K% and 14.4 HR/FB vs LHP this season. Cortes is the second best projected pitcher by PlateIQ (projections are fluid and subject to change), but below several cheaper arms in terms of projected value (points per dollar). For more on top of the board pitching tonight, including the top projected pitcher, who may also be the top value, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Marlins-Rockies postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Marlins-Rockies postponed Tuesdaydue to inclement weather

Tommy Pham (calf) scratched Tuesday

Tommy Pham (calf) scratched Tuesday

Tons of Value Projected For This Stack Against Improved, But Still Vulnerable Pitcher

On a 12 (FD) or 13 (DK) game slate with 10 teams reaching four and a half implied runs, not a single stack reaches double digit projected ownership on FanDuel tonight. On DraftKings, however, Coors stacks (Miami & Colorado) appear to be affordable enough to double up almost every other offense in terms of projected ownership, even though there are several offenses with higher implied run lines. The two stacks that smash the slate most often in simulations are the two offenses with the top two team totals (Mets & Dodgers), although in reverse order. Current simulations (which are fluid and subject to change) have the Dodgers smashing the FanDuel slate 10.18% of the time, the only stack that smashes more than nine percent of the time on either site. The Tampa Bay Rays (20.96 Value%) nearly triple up every other team in terms of value projections on FanDuel, while both the A’s (13.04%) and Nationals (11.25%) reach double digit value projections on DraftKings. For more on which top offenses are also top rated stacks tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Offense Projects For Great Value Too

While only Pete Alonso (139 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2021) sits among the top projected batters by PlateIQ for the team with the highest run line on the board (5.55) against Patrick Corbin (RHBs 380+ wOBA & xwOBA since LY), the same projections (which are fluid and subject to change) certainly feels at least a couple of Mets are priced too cheaply on FanDuel. Both Eduardo Escobar (129 wRC+, .244 ISO) and J.D. Davis (84 wRC+, .079 ISO) cost less than $2.5K with projections believing they are top point per dollar plays tonight. While Davis’s numbers don’t look like much, his xwOBA against LHP since last year is 27 points higher than actual results and he certainly seems to be experiencing some run bad this season with the highest exit velocity in the projected lineup (93.5 mph) and his 13.2% Barrels/BBE behind only Alonso (14.7%).

Escobar and Davis aren’t the only pair of teammates that project for great value on FanDuel though, as we find a trio of both Rays and Mariners inside the top 10 projeted values tonight. With a 13.8 K-BB%, 55.8 GB% and just 2.5% Barrels/BBE, Martin Perez has been an above average pitcher with his worst estimator being a 3.70 SIERA. Not all of that may be sustainable (mostly the barrels), but he’s produced seven straight Quality Starts, four of them with at least seven innings pitched. We still have to regress those numbers though, and RHBs still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330 against him since last year. Mike Zunino (204 wRC+, .455 ISO vs LHP since LY), Harold Ramirez (126 wRC+, .137 ISO) and Isaac Paredes (111 last 30 days) all cost less than $2.5K.

The Mariners are also an offense projections favor on a point per dollar basis. Baltimore may be more of a pitcher’s park now, but Kyle Lewis (122 wRC+, .191 ISO), Jesse Winker (144 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Taylor Trammell (108 wRC+, .254 ISO) all appear too cheap for their success against RHP. They’ll be facing whomever comes out of the Baltimore bullpen tonight, starting with Bryan Baker for a couple of innings.

DraftKings projections really favor Detroit Tigers in game two of their doubleheader against the Twins with several batters who cost $2.7K or less. Only available on DK tonight, Daz Cameron, Derek Hill, Willi Castro and Jeimer Candelario will face Cole Sands, a marginally regarded prospect (40+ FV grade Fangraphs), who will be making his first major league start and third appearance just a month or so shy of his 25th birthday. With a development track that’s been disturbed by various injuries, he’s essentially a two pitch pitcher (sweeping curveball, high heat at average velocity), who projects as a multi-inning reliever in the long run.

Batters From Either Side of the Plate Above a .370 wOBA Against This Pitcher

Great weather and some hitter friendly environments on a large slate gets five teams to the five implied run mark and another five to four and a half. Weather certainly plays a part in pushing the Mets to the top of the board (5.55) at home, though Patrick Corbin’s .380+ wOBA and xwOBA against LHP since last season has some say in that as well. While Coors is on the board, we have to get down to the fourth spot before we find either of those teams (Rockies 5.2 team run total). There are a couple of interesting notes and both have to do with weather. Conditions are expected to be so hitter friendly at Wrigley tonight that it may pass Coors in terms of the top run environment on the board. Coors also takes a slight hit in Statcast’s newest three year rolling park factors, which includes 2022 data now. Colorado is also the highest risk spot on the board in terms of rain. In fact, Kevin’s early forecast was leaning PPD in this one, though that could change.

Ironically, Pete Alonso (139 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the only NYM batter who finds his way into the top 10 overall projected bats by PlateIQ today, while the Rockies are one of two teams to feature multiple batters on that list on both sites with Connor Joe (99 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP since LY) and C.J. Cron (127 wRC+, .242 ISO) against Edward Cabrera, a top pitching prospect for the Marlins, who is making his season debut, but struggled greatly over seven starts and 26.1 innings last season (7.5 K-BB%, 11.6% Barrels/BBE). Batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

The dominant lineup here is the Dodgers though, placing three batters inside the top 10 overall raw projected point totals. Again, it’s the top of the order in Mookie Betts (148 wRC+, .255 ISO), Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Trea Turner (126 wRC+, .176 ISO), who all hit RHP so well and are projected among the top six batters on either site against Mitch Keller. His underlying numbers aren’t nearly as poor as his 6.05 ERA this season, but it’s hard to argue that he’s actually been good (9.7 K-BB%). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .370 wOBA against Keller since last year. The Dodgers are second on the board with a 5.43 run team total. No other offense features multiple top 10 projected bats tonight.

The One Spot Where High Upside Pitching Meets High Upside Matchup

Tonight’s top projected pitcher is also a top three projected point per dollar value on either site and that’s because Cristian Javier may be a bit under-priced on FanDuel ($8.7K) for a matchup in Oakland (75 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.8 HR/FB vs RHP). While $900 more on DraftKings, that may still be a bargain, according to PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and subject to change. Oakland is a park upgrade and Javier has lost nothing in transition from the bullpen to rotation this year. In fact, he’s struck out 18 of his last 42 batters to drive his strikeout rate up to 33.1%. He is generating just 27.5% of his contact on the ground and allowing 9.6% Barrels/BBE, but even that generates just a 2.90 xERA. A 3.31 xFIP is his only estimator above three. Oakland is also where barrels go to die.

Ryan Yarbrough is actually the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel currently for just $6.4K. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats (18.7 K%), but generally has elite control and is one of the best contact managers in the league. While he’s not doing so much the former (8.8 BB%), the latter is certainly up to his stellar standards (84.4 mph EV, 3.2% Barrels/BBE). His xERA (3.41) is usually less than his other estimators and while pitcher exit velocities generally aren’t always considered predictive, he’s been excelling in that category for long enough that there’s probably something to it. While Texas is a bit of a park downgrade, it still plays slightly run negative with the roof closed, while the Rangers have actually excelled vs LHP this season (111 wRC+, 20.3 K%).

Blake Snell is another pitcher projections may be too cheap on FanDuel ($7K), but this is a highly volatile arm in a dangerous spot. The Padres never know which version of Snell they’re going to get on any given night, but it’s a good bet it won’t include a ton of balls in play. He’s faced 38 batters this year with 12 strikeouts, five walks and two home runs with another two barrels (19%) that stayed in the yard. Much like last year, he producing a strikeout rate above 30% with a double digit walk rate, which rarely lets him get deep into games. Even 104 pitches last time out didn’t get him through six innings. St Louis is usually a firmly negative run environment and power suppressive, though all bets seem to be off when it warms up and with 86 degrees and 10 mph winds out to LF in the forecast, a St Louis offense with a 137 wRC+ and 17.9 K% vs LHP becomes that much more dangerous. Still, you’re getting a 30+ K% for $7K.

George Kirby projects very strongly from a point per dollar perspective on DraftKings ($6.6K). Top pitching prospect for Seattle did allow four runs to the A’s over just five innings last time out, but also struck out a career high nine of 23 batters faced after struggling in starts in Boston and New York (NL). Overall, he has a 21.1 K-BB% through four starts with just two walks. While his 10.6 SwStr% is average, a 79.5 Z-Contact% is more impressive. On the negative end, 47.6% of his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat. All estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.50 ERA and Baltimore is now a pitcher friendly environment, while the O’s have a 95 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP.

Jordan Montgomery projects as a strong value on either site for $8K or less. While he isn’t the type of pitcher you’d consider a workhorse (he’s completed six innings just three times in nine starts without recording a seventh inning out all season), it’s still a bit of a shock that he’s failed to strike out more than five in any of his starts, despite a 13.5 SwStr%. A 4.3 BB% and 5.0% Barrels/BBE have still kept all estimators below four, but you have to believe the strikeouts have increase at some point. Perhaps the Angels help him get there (23.2 K% vs LHP), but the offense is dangerous (113 wRC+, 14.4 HR/FB vs LHP). On the other side, the premium velocity may be gone for good, but Noah Syndergaard still throws harder than the average starter and 40% of his runs have come in just one start. The only negative in his profile is a 17.3 K%, but Thor has an 11.8 SwStr% to go with a 5.1 BB%, 50.4 GB% and 87.1 mph EV. He’s also struck out 13 of his last 60 (21.7%) and doesn’t have a single estimator more than a run above his 3.08 ERA. The Yankees have a 109 wRC+ and 21.5 K% vs RHP, but this is a banged up offense that has just a 74 wRC+ and 19.2 K-BB% over the last week. Syndergaard is an affordable $7.5K on DraftKings.

Tough Matchups Could Weight Down Some High Priced Pitchers

With DraftKings offering the second game of the double header in Detroit, it’s a 13 game Tuesday night slate, but just 12 on FanDuel. Lucas Giolito is the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites, costing exactly that much on FanDuel and $200 more DraftKings. He tops the slate with a 33.3 K% and at least seven in five of his last six starts. His rates of walks (9.8%) and barrels (10.3%) are a bit high, but even that just pushes his xERA up to 3.84, although all estimators are at least one-quarter of a run above his 2.63 ERA (93.4 LOB%). Giolito loves his changeup and why not with a 45.5 Whiff%, but throwing it fairly often against RHBs too has given him somewhat of a reverse split (RHBs .307 wOBA since last year, LHBs .278) that could work against him a bit here. The Blue Jays line up predominantly from the right-hand side, though they have been just average against RHP (97 wRC+, 22.1 K%). Gioilto is currently just the fourth best projected pitcher on the board tonight by PlateIQ, due to some cheaper pitchers in very high upside spots. It seems that matchups do make the pitcher tonight, at least in terms of projections. To read more on how top of the board pitchers project in some difficult matchups, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cody Bellinger (leg) scratched Monday

Cody Bellinger (leg) scratched Monday

The Offense Expected to Smash & Go Under-Owned

One a six game slate, you’re going to get a lot of stacks with double digit ownership on either site, especially with five teams separated by more than half a run from the rest of the board, all above 4.9 implied runs. While five stacks are currently projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel, bats at Wrigley are simply too cheap for the forecasted weather on DraftKings. Both the Brewers and Cubs are projected to be stacked in more than 20% of lineups with the Red Sox (13.28%) the only other team projected to be stacked in more than 10% of lineups (although these projections are fluid and subject to change). Ironically, it’s the Dodgers and not either team at Wrigley that smashes the slate most often in simulations. Only odd, on this day, because weather factors might make Dodger Stadium the most negative or at least most neutral park on the slate. As mentioned previously, Wrigley bats are just too cheap. Brewers top the FanDuel Value% projections by a large margin, while both teams are just a bit ahead of the Nationals on DraftKings.

You may have already guessed what this means for Leverage Ratings tonight. The Dodgers are the top rated stack and the only offense on either site that exceeds a 5.0 Rating. (Milwaukee has a substantially negative Rating on DraftKings currently.) It’s not often that the Dodgers are projected to smash the slate so often, yet also go under-owned, but that’s the state the weather forecast has us in tonight. When projections are suggesting it’s a great idea to stack Dodgers and not too many other people are probably going to do so, it’s probably best not to argue. While Zach Thompson has a 41 point split by wOBA and 17 by xwOBA since last season, the Dodgers RHBs are so good against RHP that it hardly matters. Mookie Betts (145 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) are all top projected bats tonight and Will Smith (138 wRC+, .237 ISO) is not too bad either.

These Offenses Are Too Cheap For The Weather

It’s not a surprise that the same offense that dominates the top of the PlateIQ projections overall, dominates the point per dollar projections on both sites as well. Often, sites can account for park and pitching matchup, although they don’t always do. However, they really can’t account for weather when pricing players and bats at Wrigley are just too cheap with great hitting weather tonight. Five of the top seven projected point per dollar bats on DraftKings are Brewers tonight, led by Andrew McCutchen (156 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since LY) against Drew Smyly (batters from either side above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA since 2021) for just $3.3K. Tyrone Taylor (105 wRC+, .168 ISO), Lorenzo Cain (43 wRC+), Keston Hiura (11 wRC+) and Mike Brosseau (116 wRC+, .194 ISO) are all even cheaper. The same group, minus Cain, also make up four of the top seven projected values on FanDuel as well.

We also find two Cubs among the top 10 projected values on FanDuel. In four starts, Aaron Ashby has struck out just 18 of 88 batters with 16 walks, though including his work from the pen, batters from the right side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Clint Frazier (75 wRC+ vs LHP since LY) and Christopher Morel (151 wRC+ overall in majors) are too cheap with the latter projected to bat leadoff at the minimum ($2K).

The New York Mets also place two batters among the top 10 projected values on FanDuel tonight and they are one of four offenses above five implied runs tonight against Erick Fedde (LHBs within two points of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last season). Luis Guillorme (134 wRC+) is projected to bat leadoff for just $2K and is actually the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel by PlateIQ. Eduardo Escobar (95 wRC+, .181 ISO) costs less than $2.5K as well.