DFS Alerts
Carlos Carrasco a top SP afternoon for the early slate
While Carrasco has not struck out many batters of late (just 12 in his last 15 2/3 IP) he still enters today with a K rate topping 23% to both sides of the plate and a wOBA allowed <.300 to both sides. The Royals aren’t the same offense they were a year ago making Carrasco a relatively safe option today. Ian Kennedy starts for the Royals today and while he’s pitched relatively well this season he is prone to the long ball (22 HR’s allowed in 18 starts this season with 19 of those coming in the last 12 starts). He has exhibited high K upside this season so is worth a look in GPP’s. The top four of the Indians lineup (Santana, Kipnis, Lindor, Napoli) are in play with Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyer Naquin also worthy of consideration.
As reported by: Josh Vernier on Twitter Other tagged players: Ian Kennedy
Vegas likes Tigers offense today against Ervin Santana
The Tigers are projected to score 5+ runs today against Twins RHP Ervin Santana while Tigers SP Justin Verlander is in line for a win as a substantial (-177) favorite. Santana has actually been more vulnerable to RH bats this season allowing a .336 wOBA to them which is bad news against a RH heavy Tigers lineup. Ian Kinsler is pricey but is the top option for the Tigers while the rest of the top five (Maybin, Cabrera, Martinez, and Castellanos) are all worthy of consideration by themselves or as part of a Tigers stack. If you want some punt exposure to the Tigers lineup, Tyler Collins and James McCann provide that. While Verlander has shown the ability to blow up from time to time, Twins bats are not viable options on a slate filled with big run totals. A contrarian stack of Nunez, Sano, Dozier, and Kepler is intriguing however given Verlander’s ability to get lit up from time to time.
As reported by: Mike Berardino on Twitter Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Ervin Santana Reds one of top offenses to target today
After two good starts, Braves RHP Lucas Harrell was rocked in his last game by Colorado (in Atlanta) and Vegas thinks the same will happen today as they have given the Reds a run total topping five. Adam Duvall gets the day off for the Reds but any of the top four of their lineup (Cozart, Hamilton, Votto, Bruce) are excellent options with Votto and Bruce being the obvious choices of that group. Reds SP Anthony DeSclafani is an option today facing the anemic Braves as a large -180 favorite. The Braves have loaded up with LH bats (five of them) but outside of Freddie Freeman are best avoided.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans on Twitter Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Anthony DeSclafani, Freddie Freeman Start of tonight's TB/COL game to be delayed due to rain
The Rays-Rockies game will not be starting on time and is currently in a rain delay. Start time is still TBD. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide any updates if they become available before the game’s lock time.
As reported by: Colorado Rockies Official Twitter Feed
Start of tonight's SD/STL game to be delayed due to rain
The Padres-Cardinals game will not be starting on time and is currently in a rain delay. Start time is still TBD. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide any updates if they become available before the game’s lock time.
As reported by: St. Louis Cardinals Official Twitter Feed Zack Godley has posted a 4.4% K-BB% through six appearances this season
Godley hasn’t pitched great this season as reflected in his 4.91 SIERA and draws a tough matchup against the powerful Blue Jays offense tonight. Godley has done a great job of keeping the ball on the ground thus far (54.0% GB%) and is actually missing a respectable amount of bats (11.0% SwStr%) so there is hope for him to possibly be a successful piece of the Diamondbacks rotation eventually. However, it’s tough to envision that tonight is the night he finally breaks through. The Blue Jays are priced up on both DraftKings and FanDuel but could make for great tournament pivots away from all the Coors ownership. The top half of the Blue Jays order is where we want a majority of our exposure. Meaning Josh Donaldson (162 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .302 ISO vs RHP), Devon Travis (142 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .245 ISO vs RHP), Michael Saunders (131 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .223 ISO vs RHP), and Edwin Encarnacion (129 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .254 ISO vs RHP) are our primary targets.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Devon Travis, Michael Saunders, Edwin Encarnacion, Zack Godley Dillon Overtun has more HRs allowed (five) than strikeouts (four) in 46 major league batters faced
Dillon Overtun has allowed more HRs (five) than he has strikeouts (four) through his first 46 major league batters. He only has 160 minor league innings with average peripherals in the minors above single A the last two seasons. Of his 37 batted balls in the majors this year, only eight have been on the ground and 40.5% have been hard hit. This reinforces why the Astros would be projected for more than four and half runs in tough park in Oakland. The top four are a great stack tonight that may not be highly owned with many highly projected offenses on the slate in better parks. Altuve (171 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Springer (152 wRC+, .283 ISO) have both pounded LHP this season, while Marwin Gonzalez (120 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Carlos Correa (113 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP career) both cost less than $4K on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Corporan, Marwin Gonzalez, Dillon Overton, George Springer
Carlos Gonzalez OUT of the lineup, Rockies still implied to score the most runs on the slate (6.1)
Blake Snell (5.01 SIERA, 6.9% K-BB%) is a top prospect in the Rays farm system, but he has yet to flash any sort of that prospect prowess at the major league level through six starts this season. It is also highly unlikely that Snell finally figures it out on the road at Coors Field against the Rockies tonight. There’s not much to dissect in the advanced stats of Snell as nothing really stands out and the sample size is so small. We will have to treat Snell as a below average pitcher in this situation and, unfortunately, Coors Field is where sub-par pitchers go to die. Nolan Arenado (137 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .256 ISO vs LHP) and Trevor Story (137 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .301 ISO vs LHP) are elite plays at their respective positions tonight given their power upside and matchup. D.J. LeMahieu (131 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .210 ISO vs LHP) and Nick Hundley (112 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .267 ISO vs LHP) are the the secondary options in the Rockies lineup to be used as stack fillers. Ryan Raburn (.258 ISO vs LHP) hasn’t been mashing LHP quite as well as he has in past seasons but still offers some decent power upside as a mid-tier OF option.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, Nick Hundley, Ryan Raburn, Blake Snell Rangers bats have struggled against RHP (90 wRC+), but are extremely cheap on DraftKings tonight
Tim Linecum is a reverse platoon guy with LHBs having just a .296 wOBA against him since last season, which actually fits with this Texas lineup as their LHBs haven’t been good against RHP with only Shin-Soo Choo (138 wRC+, .205 ISO) being much above average against them since last season. Mitch Moreland (117 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may still be a bargain in the 5th spot tonight for less than $3K, though players may want to look at Ian Desmond (115 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP this season) as the top bat, though actually cheaper on DraftKings ($3.9K). Adrian Beltre (83 wRC+) has struggled against RHP this season, but has to be looked at for just $2.7K on DraftKings as well. This is a strange spot in that it’s a pitcher’s park with a below average offense, but the Rangers still have a nearly five run projection.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Tim Lincecum, Adrian Beltre, Mitch Moreland Batters from both sides have a .360+ wOBA against Kyle Lohse since last season
Kyle Lohse has been pummeled by batters from either side for a .360 wOBA or better with a 32 Hard% or better since last season. While the Angels are a fairly ordinary offense, they might have some upside tonight with no batter besides Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is a top bat, costing more than $4K on DraftKings and only Albert Pujols (111 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP since 2015) additionally above $3.2K on FanDuel. Players in need of salary relief on the corners or in the OF can look to Angels bats tonight with a projection just above five runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Kyle Lohse Dallas Keuchel has a league average K% with a GB rate up to 57.4% in a good run prevention spot in Oakland
Dallas Keuchel may never live up to his Cy Young dominance again, but has been pitching well lately and has a perfectly league average 20.3 K% with the fifth best ground ball rate (57.4%) in the majors. While the Ks might take a hit in Oakland (18.0 K% at home and vs LHP) this is still a somewhat safe run prevention spot for him in a great park (A’s 87 wRC+, 10.1 HR/FB at home). Keuchel is a very reasonable play if you don’t trust some higher priced volatile arms. He has allowed 15 HRs this year though (13 to RHBs with a .343 wOBA) and the A’s do have three lefty mashers in Smolinski, Valencia, and Semien, who all have a wRC+ above 170 with an ISO above .280 vs LHP this season. Khris Davis (106 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is a little less potent long those lines. While he’ll have to carefully navigate those spots, the rest of the lineup shouldn’t present much of an issue.
Other tagged players: Jake Smolinski, Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Marcus Semien Cardinals have a 117 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .200 ISO as a team versus RHP
Colin Rea (4.73 SIERA, 8.5% K-BB%) is actually a respectable pitcher against right-handed batters, but this Cardinals offense is a difficult assignment for any pitcher. Rea pitches to contact primarily as reflected in his low 6.0% SwStr%. The 18.0% K% Rea has posted thus far this year could actually be due for a bit of regression based on that SwStr%. There are a plethora of options to target in the Cardinals lineup as Rea is not a pitcher we want to go out of our way to avoid. Aledmys Diaz (154 wRC+, .401 wOBA, .243 ISO vs RHP) and Randal Grichuk (120 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP) are expensive on DraftKings but are the top overall plays in the Cardinals lineup batting at the top of the order. Jedd Gyorko (124 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .265 ISO vs RHP) and Matt Adams (.222 ISO vs RHP) are decent options if looking to save some salary and should go under the radar being slotted in the bottom half of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Jedd Gyorko, Matt Adams, Colin Rea A bit of risk in St Louis and Colorado in Kevin's evening update
While a YELLOW/ORANGE tag in Colorado worked out okay last night and is less of a risk as players are generally not interested in pitching and don’t care when the game plays as long as it does, a questionable forecast is more concerning in St Louis with Carlos Martinez in a great spot. Players will want to read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page linked below and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) to assess risk and get further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Dickerson back in the cleanup spot in Coors
Corey Dickerson (112 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is back in the cleanup spot in his old stomping grounds, however, Tyler Chatwood has a reverse platoon split with LHBs only having a .251 wOBA against him this season with a 60% GB rate, while RHBs have .333 wOBA, but have still kept the ball on the ground 55% of the time. He has only allowed six HRs this season, which may be why Tampa Bay (5.3 runs) is barely a top five projected offense tonight. While Evan Longoria (134 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Steve Pearce (122 wRC+, .159 ISO) are both strong hitters vs RHP this season and Logan Forsythe (98 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is still reasonably priced for Coors, players may want to consider stronger exposure to lineups outside of Coors and not blindly stack LHBs against a RHP in this park.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Logan Forsythe, Steve Pearce, Tyler Chatwood The Red Sox have tonight's 2nd highest projected run total (5.85)
The Red Sox have tonight’s second highest run projection (5.85) on a night when there is a game in Vegas. Bats are priced up on DraftKings against Peavy, as they usually are for the Red Sox at home, but a cheap arm like Lopez might allow players to afford this stack. Both left and right-handed bats have a wOBA right around .320 against Peavy since last season with a hard hit rate at 31%, but part of that is a product of a great park in San Francisco. David Ortiz (201 wRC+, .387 ISO vs RHP this season) is obviously a beast and top overall bat if you can afford him. Dustin Pedroia (121 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is actually the only Boston bat in the top six with a wRC+ above 100 (117) since the All Star break and is more of a bargain for $3.1K on FanDuel. Bradley (151 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this season) and Betts (131 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP this season) are also coveted bats if you can afford them.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jake Peavy, Jackie Bradley, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts