DFS Alerts
Anibal Sanchez is allowing 2.34 HR/9 to RHB
Sanchez is a borderline competent major league pitcher nowadays, to put it nicely. Not only has he been abused by right-handed batters, lefties have had almost just as much success this season (4.68 xFIP, .362 wOBA). To reiterate, Sanchez is still not a good pitcher anymore, with a 6.75 ERA, 4.82 SIERA and 10.5% walk rate as well. He is allowing a 34.7% Hard% compounded by a 46% FB% allowed to right-handed batters. The Twins could be one of the lower owned stacks tonight which makes them elite tournament plays. Robbie Grossman (124 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .149 ISO vs RHP), Joe Mauer, (115 wRC+, .346 wOBA vs RHP) and Eduardo Nunez (106 wRC+, .332 wOBA vs RHP) are the glue to any Twins stack in this matchup. Max Kepler (.279 ISO vs RHP) and Miguel Sano (.202 ISO vs RHP) are the Twins bats that would provide the most power upside.
Other tagged players: Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Nunez, Anibal Sanchez
Carlos Martinez has the 2nd best GB rate and has struck out 18 of his last 51 batters
Carlos Martinez has seen his strikeout rate drop a few points to just league average this year, but has struck out 18 of his last 51 with a season high 11 in his last start. That was against the Brewers, but the Padres run out a similarly strikeout prone (24.5% vs RHP) right-handed lineup. This is a great matchup at home where he should have success as he has dominated RHBs (.251 wOBA, 23.3 Hard%) since last season and has the second highest GB rate in baseball (58.7%) this year. The one inexpensive San Diego bat who might be considered is Ryan Schimpf (150 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP in a small sample), who is Second Base eligible on DraftKings, costing $3.1K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf
Danny Salazar has struck out 18 of 57 Royals this year, but has gone fewer than six innings in eight of 17 starts
Danny Salazar leads the AL with a 27.6 K% and has struck out 18 of 57 Royals in two starts this year with just one run in 15.2 innings, but a high walk rate has also knocked him out of games in fewer than six innings in eight of his 17 starts, making him a bit more high risk for more than $10K on either site. While players can and probably should consider using him, it’s not without significant risk of a shortened outing. While attacking him isn’t really in an optimal game plan, Royals bats are reduced on DraftKings where both Eric Hosmer (135 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Kendrys Morales (124 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are below $3K with interesting numbers against Salazar. Hosmer has six extra-base hits in 27 PAs (two HRs) and an astonishing 103 mph aEV over his last eight batted balls in this matchup, while Morales has a 98.5 mph aEV against him on the last six batted balls, but no extra-base hits in 18 career PAs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales Indians implied run total has decreased 0.6 runs (4.2)
Brian Flynn missed all of 2015 due to injury and has not started any games in the majors this season. Flynn does have a 23.8 K% and 13.0 SwStr% out of the bullpen for the Royals but has only gone longer than three innings three separate times. Flynn will be on a pitch count of only 60-70 pitches, so this game will be primarily a bullpen game for the Royals. We need to take the advanced stats of Flynn with a grain salt since those numbers should regress in a starting role. Flynn has also surrendered a 34.7% Hard% out the bullpen this year, another warning sign he may struggle as a starter. It’s tough to pin down any bats to target on the Indians, however, as they struggle on the road (84 wRC+, .299 wOBA) and are not great versus LHP (89 wRC+, .305 wOBA, .129 ISO). If finding the need to roster Indians bats, Francisco Lindor (116 wRC+, .345 wOBA vs LHP) and Mike Napoli (111 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .180 ISO vs LHP) would make the most logical options.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Brian Flynn Corey Seager is OUT tonight against the debuting Reynaldo Lopez (Washington's #4 prospect)
While DraftKings has been normally aggressive on debuting pitching prospects this year, Reynaldo Lopez (Washington’s #4 prospect via Fangraphs) may have slipped by with just a $4K price tag tonight. He hadn’t even seen AA before this season, but had a 22.8 K-BB% in 76.1 innings there before a less impressive 6.4 K-BB% in just 11 AAA innings. The stuff is great, but like most young pitchers, command has been an issue and our biggest concern would be limitations placed on him as he’s averaged fewer than six innings this year, but has pitched seven innings in three of his last six. While the Dodgers have had decent underlying numbers all along, their performance has recently improved a bit to where they now have a 98 wRC+ vs RHP, but with Joc Pederson (123 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) returning tonight, Lopez still gets a significant boost with the best bat on the team (Corey Seager) out of the lineup tonight. While nobody ever knows how a young pitcher is going to react in his debut, this is a great pitcher to plug into your secondary DraftKings spot for just $4K if you’re either paying up for pitching, want to stack the Coors game, or a bit of both. Dodger bats are mostly priced up on DraftKings, but Justin Turner hits RHP well (142 wRC+, .214 ISO since 2015) and has come out of the break red hot (261 wRC+) with a cost below $3K on FanDuel.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Justin Turner Jake Arrieta has just a 17.9 K% and 41.8 GB% with a 39.3 Hard% over his last three starts
Jake Arrieta has allowed 15 runs in 16.1 innings over his last three starts, striking out 14 of 78 batters (17.9%), walking eight and allowing four of his seven HRs. His ground ball rate is down to 41.8% with a 39.3 Hard% over that span. As a pitcher with a high strikeout rate, but also a high walk rate, whose dominance really came through being a league leader in weak ground balls, these are all significant problems. His velocity had dipped in his previous two starts, but was back up last time out in Pittsburgh in which his peripherals were best, so that’s a good sign. He really struggled to throw strikes against the Mets last time out. His estimators never believed he was as good as his ERA, but they might have underestimated all the weak ground balls he generated too. The answer is probably somewhere in between and he’s probably somewhere in between, but he still has to be considered one of tonight’s top arms and worthy of a roster spot if you can afford him. The thought is that he’ll turn it around sooner rather than later. Although Curtis Granderson (141 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has three career HRs against him, a lot of their matchups occurred while Arrieta was a different pitcher in Baltimore. Mets bats really aren’t of interest since they will likely be pounding the ball into the ground or missing it all night long if Arrieta is on.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson Tigers currently have the fourth highest implied run total on the entire slate (5.5)
The Tigers get a home game tonight against Tommy Milone (4.64 SIERA, 7.6% K-BB%). Milone had been a fly ball pitcher earlier in his career, but seems to be adjusting his approach, having increased his ground ball rate the past three years (48.9% GB% this season). While the newfound ground ball rate may result in a few less home runs, Milone is still not a good pitcher. Milone has decent walk rate (7.7% BB%) which may limit the upside of Tigers offense as a whole, but the middle of the order bats should still be able to take advantage of Milone for some extra base hits tonight. Victor Martinez (125 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .200 ISO vs LHP) is an elite play on FanDuel where he is still somehow catcher eligible. Ian Kinsler (160 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .248 ISO vs LHP)and Cameron Maybin (170 wRC+, .427 wOBA vs LHP) are vital cogs to any Tigers stack batting at the top of the order. Miguel Cabrera (133 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .199 ISO vs LHP since 2014) has struggled against lefties this season, albeit a small sample, but has typically mashed LHP throughout his career.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Victor Martinez, Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Tommy Milone The Brewers have a 26.2 K% vs RHP in a park that shuts down RH power in Pittsburgh tonight
Jameson Taillon hasn’t pitched poorly with a 14.0 K-BB%, but does have just a 6.7 SwStr% through five starts. He was allowed to go 95 pitches last time out, but has spent two weeks on the DL since with a shoulder issue, putting his pitch count more in question tonight. He hasn’t walked many and does have a GB rate above 50%, while facing the most strikeout prone offense in the majors vs RHP tonight (26.2%) in a park that shuts down RH power. He has had swing and miss stuff in the minors and the issue seems to be one that’s more about falling behind and a 97.5 Z-Contact% when hitters know a strike is coming, but the real concern here would be potential limitations on his pitch count following the shoulder issue, which makes his $8.8K cost on DraftKings more of a borderline proposition. There’s still no interest in Milwaukee bats in a difficult spot.
Chris David remains OUT against Eovaldi at Yankee Stadium
Chris Davis’s illness is the misfortune of daily fantasy players against a pitcher who has allowed a .356 wOBA to LHBs since last season in a great park. Eovaldi had allowed 12 HRs over his last six starts before being banished to the bullpen at the beginning of the month. Pedro Alvarez (119 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be the premier bat tonight. He has a 177 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since the break. RHBs have just a .303 wOBA vs against Eovaldi since last season, but have 10 of his 19 HRs allowed this season. Trumbo, Machado, and Schoop all have a wRC+ above 135 with an ISO above .225 vs RHP this season.
Other tagged players: Nathan Eovaldi, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop Carlos Beltran (123 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is cheapest Yankee LHB on DraftKings ($3.7K)
Vance Worley has pitched out of the pen since April and has occasionally gotten an excessive amount of called strikes in the past, but has little swing and miss ability (6.1 SwStr% this year) and is not a pitcher players should really be looking at in Yankee Stadium tonight, although he may be able to get a few batters looking in a weak lineup and cover his $4.7K DraftKings price if necessary. Two Yankee bats might potentially provide some value tonight. The obvious one is Carlos Beltran (123 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who strangely costs just $3.7K on both sites. LHBs have a .342 wOBA against Worley since last season. RHBs have just a .309 wOBA and Alex Rodriguez has just a 53 wRC+ and .149 ISO against them, which makes it a bit surprising to see him batting 5th, but he did homer last night and costs $3K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Alex Rodriguez, Vance Worley Giants implied run total has decreased 0.6 runs (4.1)
Rick Porcello (3.86 SIERA, 16.2% K-BB) is having a renaissance year for the Red Sox after severely under performing last season. If Porcello were facing a lesser opponent, he would actually be a very solid mid-tier starting option on this slate. However, it’s always tough to attack the Giants offense when they only strikeout 16.6% of the time versus RHP and are travelling to a hitters park in Fenway. This isn’t a spot to fully stack the Giants hitters as Porcello is more than capable of shutting them down, but we can definitely target one or two lower cost upside bats to fill out our lineups. Brandon Belt (141 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .188 ISO vs RHP), Jarrett Parker (171 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .212 ISO vs RHP), and Brandon Crawford (115 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .180 ISO vs RHP) are all priced reasonably and would be the top options to consider.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jarrett Parker, Brandon Crawford, Rick Porcello Turner leads off, Werth dropped to 5th with Rendon and Ramos OUT vs Kazmir
Scott Kazmir has been incredibly erratic in the three true outcomes (HRs, Ks, and BBs) to be trusted against an offense with a 115 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB vs LHP. He’s basically been Cole Hamels without the high strand rate, but this lineup has been Dusty Baker’d with four LH bats in the top six. It’s understandable that a Catcher has to rest, but tonight is bad night to do so, though Kazmir hasn’t shown much of a split with LHBs and RHBs having a wOBA just above .300 against him since last season (though RHBs have been a bit better this season). It’s more of a question of the benched guys and Werth (186 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP this year) hitting LHP better than the guys in their spots. Danny Espinosa (135 wRC+, .333 ISO vs LHP this season) gets a slight bump with a $2.4K cost on FanDuel moving up a spot. Trea Turner in the leadoff spot at a low cost on either site may have some appeal as well in the middle infield.
Other tagged players: Danny Espinosa, Trea Turner, Scott Kazmir Vincent Velasquez has a 28.6 K% with just four walks in three starts back from the DL
Vincent Velasquez has looked great, with a 28.6 K% and 13.7 SwStr% in three starts since returning from the DL. Perhaps just as importantly, he’s walked just four allowing the same amount of runs in 17 innings with two of those starts coming in Arizona and Colorado. While expectations are probably still unfairly high after he dominated the Padres in April, this is as close to consistency as he’s gotten this year. The Marlins are about as vanilla of a matchup as it gets, but have surprisingly little power vs RHP (9.7 HR/FB) against whom Marcell Ozuna has been much less potent against. Velasquez might not be the biggest bargain at an above average cost (he’s only struck out more than seven once in his last 13 starts, but he does have enough upside in his 20.5 K-BB% to be used tonight. Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since last season) has a 183 wRC+ and 55.6 Hard% since the break and has to remain in the discussion in a small park for just $3.2K on FanDuel against a pitcher who hasn’t shown much of a platoon split (RHBs .317 wOBA career).
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton Joey Votto has a 273 wRC+ and 75 Hard% since the All Star break
Tyler Jenkins is a what the Braves hope will be a weak contact guy, ranked 19th in the organization prospect list this pre-season by fangraphs, and strikeout rates well below league average in the minors the past couple of seasons. He’s walked and struck out seven each in 14 major league innings, but does have just a 24.5 Hard%. There doesn’t appear to be much upside here, but its unknown yet if he’s a pitcher players should attack offensively with a 57.4 GB% so far. LHBs have elevated a bit more often (47.6 GB%) with a bit harder contact (28.6%), so Joey Votto (161 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with a 273 wRC+ and 75 Hard% since the All Star break remains a top overall bat and probably still a good value at a high price, but still below $5K on DraftKings (below $4K on FanDuel). Jay Bruce (107 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Adam Duvall (114 wRC+, .310 ISO vs RHP since 2015) who is just $3K on FanDuel and hits RHP better than LHP are still power threats in a power friendly home park, but both cost nearly $5K as well on DraftKings.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Tyrell Jenkins, Jay Bruce Cody Reed has been hit incredibly hard (42.5 Hard%, 40.9 HR/FB), but misses bats too (24.0 K%)
Cody Reed has a 42.5 Hard%, which has led to a ridiculous .380 BABIP in addition to nine of his 22 fly balls leaving the yard. That’s terrible, but a 40.9 HR/FB has to come down just by dumb luck. The rest of it has been a tendency to predictably groove his fastball whenever he gets behind with nearly of the damage coming on straight, hard stuff because he doesn’t really have a fastball that blows people away. His slider, which he really only throws while ahead, has led to a 24.0 K%, so there is upside, furthered by facing the Braves tonight (74 wRC+, 7.5 HR/FB). This is a spot where a player with a high risk tolerance could consider him tonight, though his $8.1K cost on DraftKings makes it more difficult. Due to his issues, we’re not taking cheap Braves bats off the board at all. Anthony Recker (118 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015) does have some power and can serve as a punt catcher, while Adonis Garcia (116 wRC+, .176 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is another great punt option at 3B with both below $3K on either site. Leadoff man Gordon Beckham (124 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP this season) has a -86 wRC+ over the last week, but is another affordable option (below $3.5K on either site) in the leadoff spot with RHBs having a .454 wOBA against Reed in a power friendly park.
Other tagged players: Anthony Recker, Adonis Garcia, Gordon Beckham