DFS Alerts
La Stella leads off as Zobrist returns to bat cleanup against Syndergaard
Noah Syndergaard experienced dead arm in his last start and missed the All Star game, but proclaimed that his arm felt like new a few days ago. Syndergaard has a habit of lying to the prying media as likely directed by the Mets, but in this instance we may have to believe him as there aren’t many other high upside arms on the slate. He has the third best 26.1 K-BB% with a top 17 GB and Hard hit rate too. He maybe takes a step back from the top value at a high, but reasonable price in an unfavorable spot in Chicago tonight. However, sandwiched in between two dissapointing starts against the Nationals, he struck out eight of 27 Cubs, allowing one run in seven innings two starts back. His 15.1 SwStr% over the last month matches his season rate. Anthony Rizzo has a 183 wRC+ and .313 ISO vs RHP at marginal cost of $3.4K on FanDuel and Tommy La Stella (116 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a minimum priced leadoff hitter there too, but Cubs bats really aren’t on the radar tonight with so many other pitchers to pick on.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Tommy La Stella
Start of tonight's TB/COL game to be delayed due to rain
The Rays-Rockies game will not be starting on time and is currently in a rain delay. Start time is still TBD. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide any updates if they become available before the game locks.
As reported by: Colorado Rockies Official Twitter Feed
Kendall Graveman owns a minuscule 14.8% K% this season
It honestly wouldn’t be all that shocking if Graveman (4.69 SIERA) posts a solid outing tonight. While Graveman doesn’t strikeout righties consistently (12% K%), his hard contact rate to RHB hovers right around the league average (29.1% Hard%) and he does a fantastic job keeping the ball on the ground (55.4% GB% vs RHB). Obviously, Jose Altuve (151 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP), George Springer (111 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP), and Carlos Correa (136 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .240 ISO vs RHP) can all still take advantage of Graveman, and any major league pitcher for that matter, but their power upside is going to be limited. Left-handed batters have had more success against Graveman and only hit the ball on the ground at 47.7% clip, while managing a 34.6% hard contact rate. The Astros have some power from the left side of the plate in their lineup as well. Luis Valbuena (124 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Castro (123 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .218 ISO vs RHP) are the primary suspects here and have a shot at excelling in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Luis Valbuena, Jason Castro, Kendall Graveman A.J. Griffin has a gone five innings or less with a HR in each of his last four starts
A.J. Griffin has allowed a HR without going more than five innings in each of his last four starts and has a SwStr below 8% in three of those starts. The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against RHP (15.4%) further dampening any upside you may think he has. RHBs have just a .261 wOBA against him this season, but Mike Trout (169 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2015), while expensive, rarely comes off the board if affordable and Albert Pujols (112 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might make some sense with a 221 wRC+ over the last week for $3K on DraftKings. Kole Calhoun (113 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be the other interesting bat here, though his power has disappeared this year.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, A.J. Griffin Regression is coming for Nick Tropeano, but is tonight the night?
Tropeano has above average strikeout stuff (23.1% K%), but he really struggles keeping the ball on the ground (33.7% GB%) while surrendering too much hard contact (35.4%). Tropeano has a high walk rate (10.5% BB%) and is carrying an entirely unsustainable 90.8% LOB% this season. The regression monster is lurking, as you can tell. The Rangers bats have been cold lately but their entire lineup is extremely under-priced on DraftKings in what is a decent spot against Tropeano. Jurickson Profar (156 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP) leads off, as Shin-Soo Choo is out of the lineup, and is the top overall play in this Rangers offense. Ian Desmond (119 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP) doesn’t have the platoon split but it may work to our advantage as he has absolutely raked against lefties and righties thus far this season.
Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Nick Tropeano Chris Sale has allowed 14 HRs in his last 11 starts, but has a 14.4 SwStr% over the last month
Though Chris Sale has allowed 14 HRs over his last 11 starts, he does have a 14.4 SwStr% over the last month and has struck out at least seven in nine of his last 12. Seattle is a dangerous offense (17.3 HR/FB vs LHP), even at home (16.9 HR/FB), but they rarely walk (6.6%) and strike out a bit more than average against southpaws (21.2%). Sale has the 2nd highest price tag on either site and probably can’t meet Fernandez’s upside tonight, but is still a top arm worthy of consideration. On the other side, we don’t really look to attack a pitcher of this caliber, but Nelson Cruz (195 wRC+, .348 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who has two HRs against Sale in 18 PAs, and Franklin Gutierrez (155 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are your top HR threats with the latter costing around $3K on either site.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez Rockies implied run total has dropped more than 0.5 runs (6.0), strikeout at a 23.4% clip versus LHP
Smyly (3.75 SIERA, 18.9% K-BB%) is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, so his “stuff” should translate fairly well in the thin air at Coors Field. Smyly is absolutely filthy against left-handed batters, which should neutralize two of the Rockies biggest threats in Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. Smyly does, however, allow an average hard contact rate (29.6% Hard%) and a ton of fly balls to right-handed batters (51.9% FB%). D.J. LeMahieu (.107 ISO vs LHP since 2015) typically doesn’t have the power to capitalize on these fly balls, no matter the ballpark, which really only leaves Trevor Story (34.9% K% vs LHP) and Nolan Arenado (140 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .267 ISO vs LHP) as the primary trouble spots for Smyly. We shouldn’t expect a complete game shutout from Smyly, but a quality start with the potential for double-digit strikeouts is definitely in his range of possible outcomes. The upside is there for tournaments on sites where Smyly is priced down due to pitching at Coors Field.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story Coors is ORANGE/YELLOW in Kevin's evening update
There are a few with precipitation risk tonight with differing amounts of concern. Nobody is moving off Jose Fernandez with just a small risk of delay in Philadelphia and there are fewer pitching concerns in the Baltimore/New York affair, but the biggest problem may be Coors Field tonight, which Kevin rates ORANGE/YELLOW. This is a rare night where pitching might have been considered in Colorado tonight, but this late weather report puts that at risk. Be sure to check out the full report on our Weather Page linked below and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for important updates leading up to lock.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Khris Davis has a .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015 and RHBs have a .340 wOBA (36.8 Hard%) against Fiers
Mike Fiers has just a 16.1 K% this year, though an optimist might see an 8.8 SwStr% that is barely below his career mark and consider pairing him with a top priced pitcher on DraftKings solely due to his $5.5K cost against an offense with just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP. Oakland strikes out just 17.7% at home, far limiting his upside though. Fiers is a reverse split guy with RHBs having a .340 wOBA and 36.8 Hard% against him since last season, which kind of plays into Oakland’s hands as Khris Davis (122 wRC+) has a .259 ISO vs RHP since last season at an affordable price on either site. Danny Valencia has had a bit less success against RHP this season (107 wRC+, .153 ISO), but would be the other consideration here for $4K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Mike Fiers Tyler Anderson has a 17.4 K-BB% and 59.8 GB% through six starts
While we normally don’t look to Coors for pitching, Tyler Anderson is one of few low priced pitchers with some upside on this slate. Coors hasn’t seemed to bother him in four strong starts there and six overall to start his career with a 17.4 K-BB% and 59.8 GB%. He doesn’t throw hard, but mixes in a lot of cutters and changeups to keep RHBs honest, allowing a very reasonable .330 wOBA against them in such a difficult park. While the Rays are the 2nd best offense vs LHP (117 wRC+) in a park that will only enhance that, they also strike out 24.7% of the time against southpaws. On two pitcher sites, Tyler Anderson might be your top option to pair with Jose Fernandez. Logan Forsythe (169 wRC+, .298 ISO vs LHP since 2015), Brandon Guyer (212 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP this season) and Evan Longoria (149 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP since 2015) still rate as top bats tonight, but each cost at least $5K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brandon Guyer Tommy Pham (101 wRC+ vs LHP career) is an affordable leadoff bat in a strong spot tonight
St Louis is one of several strong alternatives to Coors tonight. They are projected nearly five runs against Christian Friedrich, who has allowed a HR in 5 straight games and his 10.3 BB% this season only makes things worse. RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season. While most RH bats are playable here, Tommy Pham (101 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) has a 279 wRC+ over the last week and is a strong value play on DK ($3.8K) and an absolute bargain on FD ($2.7K). Stephen PIscotty (186 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP this season) is a top overall OF bat.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Christian Friedrich Royals implied run total is 3.6 runs, tied for fourth-lowest on the slate
Kluber (3.43 SIERA, 19.5% K-BB%) has about as a consistently high floor as you’re going to find in any pitcher. He has gone more than six innings with at least six strikeouts in 12 of his last 17 starts. The Royals strikeout about league average versus left-handed pitching (20.1% K%) so they don’t provide any additional strikeout upside for Kluber in this matchup. On the plus side, the Royals neither take a lot of walks (6.1% BB% vs RHP) nor hit for much power (.130 ISO vs RHP). There are much more ideal places to look for offense tonight than this Royals lineup, but Eric Hosmer (125 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .150 ISO vs RHP) does have some extremely interesting BVP numbers versus Kluber if wanting to go that direction in tournaments. Hosmer has 3 HRs and 9 XBHs in just 15 ABs against Kluber in his career.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer Mike Leake threw a season high 26.3% sliders to strike out 10 Brewers last time out
While the Padres have been a better offense, they are still one of the top matchups for a RHP in baseball (17.3 K-BB%). Mike Leake rode his slider a season high 26.3% of the time in his last start to strike out 10 of 26 Brewers on an 18.2 SwStr%. While that’s certainly far from the norm for him, he does face a similarly heavily RH and strikeout prone offense tonight in a great home park. While his $6.9K price tag on FanDuel is more ideal than $8.2K on DraftKings, this is a rare spot where Leake might have some upside if he leans on his slider again. He keeps the ball on the ground over 50% of the time against batters from either side, but has a bit more of a HR problem against LHBs when he doesn’t (.313 wOBA since last season). Ryan Schimpf (159 wRC+, .379 ISO vs RHP) bats low in the order but is an interesting IF salary saver on DK ($3.5K) and pure punt play ($2.2K) on FD. Due to the park and high ground ball rate, this is not an otherwise strong spot for San Diego batters projected for just 3.64 runs against Leake, who has only allowed 1 HR to a RHB at home this year.
Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf Vargas is OUT, Grossman (179 wRC+ vs LHP) bats 6th against Matt Boyd
The Twins have become a popular DFS lineup against marginal LHPs lately and Matt Boyd (9.3 career K-BB%, 15.6 HR/FB, 32.9 Hard%, 0.70 GB/FB) certainly qualifies, though LHBs (.434 wOBA) have actually hit him a bit better than RHBs (.366 wOBA), though both have been strong. The Twins may not even realize they are facing a LHP with one bat who profiles strongly (Kennys Vargas) on the bench tonight. Additionally, Robbie Grossman (179 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP this season) bats 6th. Miguel Sano (180 wRC+, .343 ISO) and Brian Dozier (188 wRC+, .366 ISO) are both destroying LHP this year and leadoff man Eduardo Nunez (143 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP in 2016) should round out any stacks. While not very cheap, this offense is a great alternative to Coors stacks tonight.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Nunez Chris Davis OUT of the lineup in Yankee Stadium against Ivan Nova
Chris Davis projected as a great moderately priced First Base option against a pitcher who has allowed 14 HRs in 12 starts. LHBs have a .380 wOBA with a 34.0 Hard% against Nova since last season, but the Orioles line up just two of them tonight. Davis’s absence creates an opportunity for Pedro Alvarez (129 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP), who bumps up a spot in the lineup and comes in under $4K on either site. He has faced Nova just three times and already has a HR. Matt Wieters (102 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP this season), the other LHB, has four HRs in 44 PAs against Nova. RHBs have a .315 wOBA and 31.5 Hard% against Nova since 2015, so strong RHBs against RHP this year like Machado (139 wRC+, .251 ISO), Trumbo (153 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Schoop (133 wRC+, .220 ISO) should play well here too.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop