DFS Alerts
Ian Kennedy has allowed 17 HRs over his last 10 starts
Ian Kennedy has struck out 19 of his last 48 batters, but has allowed a HR in six straight starts and 17 over his last 10. This is an incredibly dangerous spot for him in Toronto. The Blue Jays have a 35.2 Hard% at home and 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP. Batters from both sides have a wOBA above .330 and hard hit rate above 35% against him since last season. Josh Donaldson (153 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of tonight’s top bats and a decent value at any price. He has a 298 wRC+ and 52 Hard% over the last week. Edwin Encarnacion (144 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 57.9 Hard% over the last week and is a top 1B option. Saunders (133 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this season) and Tulowitzki (119 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP this season) are strong bats at their positions for less than $4K. Ezequiel Carrera (98 wRC+ vs RHP this season) and Russell Martin (91 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are lower cost plays for $3.2K or less. One of only three offense projected above five runs (5.13), the Blue Jays make for a strong stack against one of the most HR prone pitchers in baseball.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Ian Kennedy, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin, Ezequiel Carrera
Angels have a 168 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .243 ISO over the past week
The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors (15.7% K% vs LHP), but we generally think of them as an above average matchup for opposing pitchers. However, this just hasn’t been the case versus LHP (110 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .162 ISO). To further compound how good the Angels have been of late, Drew Smyly has struggled over his last seven starts only recording one quality start in that span. Smyly (3.56 SIERA, 20.7% K-BB%) has an an ERA nearly a full two runs higher than his estimators and has seemingly been getting a little unlucky this season (.310 BABIP, 65.4% LOB%, 15.1% HR/FB). Smyly always has the strikeout upside to be a tournament play but that may be slightly hindered in this matchup against the Angels. This is honestly a spot that we could realistically target both Smyly and Angels hitters in non-Smyly lineups. The top Angels bats to consider are Mike Trout (139 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .162 ISO vs LHP), Yunel Escobar (167 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .211 ISO vs LHP), and Albert Pujols (131 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .275 ISO vs LHP).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols
Jered Weaver has allowed 20 HRs this season at least one in 14 of 16 starts
Jered Weaver is one of three pitchers (Ian Kennedy is another) to have allowed 20 HRs already this season. He’s allowed at least one in 14 of 16 starts. He has split them exactly equally among right and left-handed batters with each having a wOBA above .360 against him this season, though RHBs have actually hit the ball harder (41.0 Hard% vs 27.0 Hard%). Every batter in this lineup has at least some power and should be looked at for reasonable costs tonight. Corey Dickerson (97 wRC+, .263 ISO), Evan Longoria (120 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Brad Miller (99 wRC+, .212 ISO) have hit for the most power against RHP. Steve Souza (110 wRC+, .192 ISO) isn’t far behind, while Logan Forsythe (102 wRC+, .127 ISO) gets his normal leadoff boost and costs less than $4K on either site at a middle infield position.
Other tagged players: Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson, Jered Weaver, Steven Souza, Logan Forsythe Martin Perez has a 54.3 GB%, but has allowed all 10 of his HRs to RHBs
Martin Perez has a 3.39 ERA well than a run and a half below his estimators due to a high (79.3%) strand rate. He’s a top 10 ground ball generator (54.3%), but with just an 11.8 K%. He’s dominated LHBs with more ground balls (58.2%) and weak contact (13.8 Hard%), while RHBs still have a 53.5 GB%, but a much higher 35.6 Hard% and .339 wOBA this season with all 10 of his HRs going to righties. He’s the rare pitcher who probably takes Ortiz off the board at such a high cost, but with tonight’s top run projection (5.84), all RHBs are in play. Hanley Ramirez (179 wRC+, .254 vs LHP this season) is smoking hot (296 wRC+, 53.9 Hard% last seven days) and a top overall bat along with Mookie Betts (113 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP since 2015). Xander Bogaerts (136 wRC+, .143 ISO vs LHP this season) and Dustin Pedroia (114 wRC+, .151 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are top bats at middle infield positions. Bryce Brentz and Ryan Hanigan cost the minimum (or $100 above) on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Martin Perez, Ryan Hanigan, Bryce Brentz Choo OUT, Profar leads off against knuckleballer Wright
Steven Wright has allowed a HR and at least three ERs in three of his last four starts. While his low HR rate (still just a 6.0 HR/FB) seemed unsustainable all season, he’s now struck out four or fewer in three of his last four starts as well. Though his price has dropped somewhat, he still costs over $9K on either site and is beating his non-FIP estimators by two runs. Despite the best record in the American League and plenty of LHBs, the Rangers don’t hit RHP that well with only small sample Jurickson Profar (172 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) above a 118 wRC+ that seems Ian Desmond (.202 ISO vs RHP this season) as their second best hitter and then only one other batter (Mazara) above a 91 wRC+. Yet, their 4.66 projected run total against an “All Star” pitcher has them on the top third of tonight’s board. With only Odor (109 wRC+) and Andrus (138 wRC+) hitting even a lick over the last week, this might be a good situation to avoid altogether.
Other tagged players: Jurickson Profar, Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor Two excellent SP options from Orioles-Dodgers game today
Kevin Gausman and Bud Norris aren’t household names but both have been pitching well this season and make for excellent GPP plays (or SP2’s on two pitcher sites) today. Gausman has a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8% and a walk rate of 5.2% and gets a boost by pitching in a NL park today. Norris on the other hand has been exceptional in his five starts with a 2.65 SIERA and strikeout rate of 30.7%. He’s also very affordable which will allow you to build some hitter-heavy lineups. There are some hitters we can use as one-off plays or contrarian plays like Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Justin Turner, and Trayce Thompson but there are better hitting match ups out there that you should be looking at instead of targeting hitters from this game.
As reported by: Brittany Ghiroli on Twitter Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman
Asdrubal Cabrera scratched; James Loney takes his spot in the lineup
Asdrubal Cabrera has been scratched due to a knee issue. Jose Reyes moves to shortstop and Wilmer Flores to third base. James Loney will play 1st base and bat 6th.
As reported by: Adam Rubin Other tagged players: James Loney
Cubs-Reds game has a Coors-like run total
With the wind expected to blow out today in Chicago, Vegas has given the Chicago-Cincy game a run total of 11, a number we seldom see outside of Coors. With the Cubs projected to score over 6 and the Reds projected to score nearly 5 this is a game you will want to target as much as possible when building your DFS lineups this morning/afternoon. Anthony DeSclafani enters the game with a stellar 1.78 ERA but all signs point to regression as his SIERA is 4.52. A match up in Chicago against the Cubs could be the start of that regression. The middle of the Cubs lineup (Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras) are all top plays at their respective positions and the rest of the lineup is also in play. Tommy La Stella is getting activated off of the DL today and provides some ultra cheap exposure to the Cubs and he’s in a great lineup spot (fifth). The Reds face Adam Warren making his first start as a Cub. He hasn’t started since last season and has struggled out of the bullpen this season. The top six of the Reds lineup (Cozart, Hamilton, Votto, Duvall, Suarez, and Phillips) are all in play with Cozart, Duvall, and Votto the top options of that group. Jay Bruce is not starting today for the Reds.
As reported by: Chicago Cubs official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Jay Bruce, Tommy La Stella Runs should be plentiful in Minnesota today
With Ervin Santana and the enigmatic Sonny Gray on the mound today in Minnesota, Vegas has given the game a run total of nine with both teams projected to score about half of that. Everyone keeps waiting for the Gray that was magical last season to reappear but time is running out on him. He has a 4.32 SIERA and a 18.0% K rate and while the Twins do strike out at a high rate, it’s hard to trust that Gray will be able to do anything. He’s a high-risk GPP play – one you should probably only make if you are running out more than 10 lineups. Ervin Santana isn’t any better with a SIERA of 4.70 with a high hard hit rate. Target the offenses from both of these teams today. Josh Reddick leads the way for the A’s with Billy Burns getting a bump as he bats lead off. Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Stephen Vogt are also in play for the A’s. Miguel Sano is the top option for the Twins with Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, and Max Kepler also worth rostering as part of a team stack.
As reported by: Susan Slusser on Twitter Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Sonny Gray Jacob deGrom top pitching option for early slate
The Marlins were able to best the Mets last night behind some old school Giancarlo Stanton power (looks like he’s definitely back in form) but now have to face Jacob deGrom who enters today’s game with the lowest expected runs allowed by half a run and also as the largest (-185) favorite on the boards. With wOBA allowed of <.292 to both sides of the plate and a 24.3% K rate, he is the clear top pitching option for the afternoon games. The aforementioned Stanton is usable as a one-off in your lineups but outside of that Marlins bats are best avoided. Justin Nicolino and his .378 wOBA allowed to RH bats pitches for Miami. Jose Reyes gets another start leading off and is worthy of consideration as a value option. Yoenis Cespedes is a top option batting third and Neil Walker, Wilmer Flores, and Asdrubal Cabrera are stack/one-off options as well.
As reported by: Joe Frisaro on Twitter Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Giancarlo Stanton Indians look to complete sweep of Tigers today
The Indians have been on a roll of late and look to continue that today when the Tigers visit them hoping to salvage the last game of the series. Michael Fulmer of Detroit squares off against Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin with the Indians being very slight (-112) favorites. Fulmer has been excellent in his rookie season with a wOBA allowed of <.290 to both sides of the plate. He strikes out a batter an inning but it’s a tough match up against an Indian offense that has been clicking and is top 10 in most offensive metrics. It’s hard to ignore the roll Fulmer has been on though as he has only allowed 3 runs in his last 8 starts spanning 51 1/3 innings. He’s also picked up six wins in those eight starts so the upside is there to use Fulmer in GPP’s. Tomlin is likely the worst starter the Indians has – he’s allowed a .305+ wOBA to both sides of the plate and has a paltry 16.5% K rate. Miguel Cabrera, as usual, is the top Tigers bat to target along with Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez. Steven Moya and Nick Castellanos are worth a look as well if building a Tigers stack. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia catching for the Tigers, the speed of the Indians could run wild. Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Jose Ramirez are all playable options just based on that potential.
As reported by: Cleveland Indians official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Francisco Lindor Tyrell Jenkins gets first major league start today against Phillies
Tyrell Jenkins was a top 50 selection in the 2010 MLB draft and has appeared four times out of the bullpen this season for the Braves. Today he will make his first start against the Phillies. He’s as cheap as they come ($4K on FanDuel, $5.4K on DraftKings) so there is some merit to using him as a punt to load up on big bats especially facing a Phillies team that for most of the season has been underwhelming. The problem with that though is he probably won’t last past the fifth inning, if that, and he hasn’t shown much in his relief appearances (.390+ wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate with just 6K’s in 9 1/3 IP). The safer bet is to target Phillies bats like Odubel Herrera and the red-hot Maikel Franco (homers in three straight games). Jeremy Hellickson gets the start for the Phillies and is in line for a easy win against a hapless Braves offense. He’s vulnerable to LH bats (.374 wOBA allowed), however, making Freddie Freeman (.374 wOBA, .247 ISO) a great option. The Braves have loaded up LH bats (Jace Peterson – 1st, Ender Inciarte – 2nd, Nick Markakis – 4th) at the top of the order and while none of those three have huge upside, they do have the capability to put together nice games and would make for a nice stack along with Freeman.
As reported by: Kevin McAlpin on Twitter Other tagged players: Jeremy Hellickson, Maikel Franco, Freddie Freeman Gregor Blanco scratched from lineup Tuesday, replaced by Mac Williamson
Blanco has been scratched from the Giants lineup tonight with a sore left knee. Mac Williamson replaces Blanco in the lineup and will bat eighth. Jarrett Parker gets the bump up to the two-hole and could make for a nice punt play as he has the platoon advantage and is relatively cheap on all sites.
Other tagged players: Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker Start of tonight's OAK/MIN game to be delayed due to rain
The Athletics-Twins game will not be starting on time and is currently in a rain delay. Start time is still TBD. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide any updates if they become available before lock.
As reported by: Minnesota Twins Official Twitter Page The Rockies have a 29.2 K% over the last week and face Bumgarner in San Francisco
Madison Bumgarner is coming off a rough start in Oakland (four runs and strikeouts) and has allowed six of his 12 HRs in his last five starts, all in severe power suppressing parks. His hard contact rate is up to 38.5% over that span. This is a slight concern as his SwStr and K rates have also dropped a bit over this span, but are still both well above league average. He is in tonight’s top spot at home against the coldest offense in baseball and still one of tonight’s top two pitchers. The Rockies have a strikeout rate above 23% on the road and against LHP with a 29.2 K% over the last week in addition to a 5.8 HR/FB. There’s no interest in their bats in an extreme pitcher’s park tonight.